Nate Silver's model gives Trump more than 68% to win the election against Biden. For the first time, Silver also predicts that Trump will win the popular vote by a wide margin. pic.twitter.com/ZXBHEgETvI

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 30, 2024

Some interesting numbers on predictit right now;



They also have a poll/gamble on Ohio's senate race predicting GOP wins over Brown-CCP, up 57 cents vs.46.

Is Ilhan going to somehow lose her primary, or is literally campaigning against America/Minnesota popular enough to carry her?

This is a sitting Member of Congress campaigning that her interests:

“are NOT the interests of Minnesota” and

“NOT the interests of the American people.”

Stunning. And her supporters cheer. https://t.co/Qf85yt3nhn

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) July 1, 2024

Early voting started Friday there, and that stupid system doesn't conclude until Aug 13th fyi, I don't see any polls on it.

GenericAggie said:

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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

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Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - 🔴 Internal

🔵 Biden 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Senate
🔵 Heinrich 45% (+3)
🔴 Domenici 42%

Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I'd say…it's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.

nortex97 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

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Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - 🔴 Internal

🔵 Biden 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Senate
🔵 Heinrich 45% (+3)
🔴 Domenici 42%

Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I'd say…it's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.

---

How on earth could Biden still have a lead? Did the entire state skipi the debate? And, did they skip CNN's take on the debate?

I know dead people didn't listen, so that Dem vote is still locked. But that can't be over 50% of their population.

What happens when Kamala is the candidate? Any data?

Science Denier said:

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nortex97 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

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Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - 🔴 Internal

🔵 Biden 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Senate
🔵 Heinrich 45% (+3)
🔴 Domenici 42%

Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I'd say…it's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.

---

How on earth could Biden still have a lead? Did the entire state skipi the debate? And, did they skip CNN's take on the debate?

I know dead people didn't listen, so that Dem vote is still locked. But that can't be over 50% of their population.

---

Most people are mostly motivated to vote against the other side, not for their own side. and most of what's left is simply party loyalty. And fair or not, the media, academia, pop culture, etc. have made Trump the most feared and hated man in America at this point. This forum's constant mocking of "support for Biden" is completely missing the point. Most on the other side would probably openly say they'd vote for a sack of cement over Trump, and that's what they've got. I see "Never, ever, vote for a Democrat" on this site all the time, so why should it be expected that the other side wouldn't feel the opposite way? Hell, I'd vote "for" a broken toaster before I voted for Obama or Biden or Hillary.

nortex97 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

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Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - 🔴 Internal

🔵 Biden 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Senate
🔵 Heinrich 45% (+3)
🔴 Domenici 42%

Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I'd say…it's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.

---

It is in play. If the GOP can gain senate seats in Michigan and New Mexico, that would take 2 firm dem seats.

Man if you are the Rs, you need to be out fundraising, smash the maggots while they are confused and scattered

Rs also have a chance in New Jersey with Menendez running as well.

Could you imagine if the Rs had a 58-42 majority? Lol it definitely won't end up that way, but damn sure could, and Rs should be doing everything possible to get it done

Barnyard96 said:

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What happens when Kamala is the candidate? Any data?

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They lose either way. Right now I believe they are trying to figure out which will have least amount of damage down ballot.

And I have no idea which one would be worse. I guess I would say the best pick is Harris to solidify the vote.

That debate lost them Ohio and Montana for sure. So right now their best outcome is 52-48 in the senate.

And between Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico, New Jersey, Maryland. At least ONE of those is likely to go R

Biden campaign thinks it a 40-48 state wipeout with Harris at the top of the ticket. One of the many reasons they refuse to bow out.

agsalaska said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-gives-donald-trump-66-chance-winning-presidential-election

Silver thinks it will be Trump

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Thats a big change. Two weeks ago he was like 51-49 Biden.

I think what we are seeing is as we get closer to November the modeling starts relying more on current polling and less on historical data. I suspect if the polling doesn't change much his modeling will show Trump even more likely.

I can't remember exactly where Silver was in 2016, maybe 75-25 Clinton. He and Cook both knew that Trump had a real if narrow shot and even spelled out where. Funny thing is he got roasted for saying it by the Dems before the election and the Republicans for some stupid reason after.

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I am now following Silver on Twitter and he takes a LOT of flak from the leftists for claiming Biden will lose.

strangely, or ominously, it seems "Likely voters" actually are more pro-Biden than "registered" voters.

I have never ever seen that phenomenon where the likely voters favor the democrat. It's always registered voters have a large advantage for the left which the likely voters then narrows.

aezmvp said:

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Biden campaign thinks it a 40-48 state wipeout with Harris at the top of the ticket. One of the many reasons they refuse to bow out.

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so Biden was such an awesome President = his very first decision in selecting Kamala was horrendous

yeah right democrats!

I don't see where she would be that much worse politically than Biden in most states. you think she will lose california and new york worse than Biden?!

most of this is Biden's team clinging to the liferafts and trying to bring down Harris with them. they don't REALLY believe Harris would lose

MARYLAND
DC
CALIFORNIA
WASHINGTON
OREGON
VERMONT
MASSACHUSETTS
HAWAII
RHODE ISLAND
CONNECTICUT
NEW YORK

that's bs for anyone to think any democrat will lose those states.

2023NCAggies said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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What happens when Kamala is the candidate? Any data?

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They lose either way. Right now I believe they are trying to figure out which will have least amount of damage down ballot.

And I have no idea which one would be worse. I guess I would say the best pick is Harris to solidify the vote.

That debate lost them Ohio and Montana for sure. So right now their best outcome is 52-48 in the senate.

And between Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico, New Jersey, Maryland. At least ONE of those is likely to go R

---

sure hope you are correct!!

Hogan is doing a very strong campaign in Maryland.

I love Hung Cao but I doubt he can win in Virginia.

same with McCormick in PA. He just is not very strong candidate. he has fewer twitter followers than I do.

Silver is a liberal but he is not a partisan nor controlled media. One of the reasons he is independent now.

He is a must follow.

we pretty much want every poll to be like this with Trump having a +5 lead

enough to stop leftist cheating,

but not too much where Biden drops out because it is impossible to win.

nortex97 said:

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GenericAggie said:

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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

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Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - 🔴 Internal

🔵 Biden 49% (+2)
🔴 Trump 47%

Senate
🔵 Heinrich 45% (+3)
🔴 Domenici 42%

Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I'd say…it's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.

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Not a surprise. As noted earlier in the thread. If Nevada's numbers are anywhere close to being real there was no good reason NM would also not shift similarly. And I also predicted that Domenici has a good enough shot and enough money to help Trump overcome his negatives among the population.

This is more bad news for the Dems. Nevada and NM in play are much cheaper than MN, MI, WI, or PA. As long as Trump gets back AZ and GA he does not need any of those four if he has NV and NM, but obviously if those are in play than these other four are in play as well, but I wouldn't place the reasons they are in play as categorically the same.

agsalaska said:

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Silver is a liberal but he is not a partisan nor controlled media. One of the reasons he is independent now.

He is a must follow.

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I actually agree with this. He made his point that the polls were actually…correct in both 2016 and 2020 about the probability of the outcomes, especially in the battleground states (I loosely recall he said there was a 30 percent chance or so of a Trump win, the night before in 2016).

I know he's moved around some (not affiliated with 538 any longer) but he is fairly independent-thinking and not beholden to the lefty/MSM.

Cruz posted he thinks its gonna be Michelle.

Barnyard96 said:

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Cruz posted he thinks its gonna be Michelle.

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8 more years of Obamas. **** that.

I hope he's just starting crap

sorry not a poll but i think you'll see some counter gamesmanship from the republican side. they will push the notion that it's too late to replace biden for various reasons (certain states' deadlines, etc.) and it's anti-democratic since most of the delegates are technically obliged to nominate biden, and voters didn't get a choice, etc. (and they should), but I think they're also going to push some bad replacement candidates that they have some dirt on or that they know they can beat.

these polls are interesting to follow, but they're all going to be moot real quick once the Biden family is finally paid off enough to drop out and as we get closer to the convention.

New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

It looks like that pollster got the Bolduc polling really wrong in the last election.

📊 MICHIGAN GE: EPIC-MRA

🟥 Trump: 49% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 45%
---
🟥 Trump: 42% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟨 West: 2%

538: #92 (2.0/3.0) | 600 LV | 6/21-26https://t.co/hHu3hBexPf pic.twitter.com/SCcpIFyyIs

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 30, 2024

Is this one wrong?

Saying there is a 30% chance of one of the options of a non repeatable binary outcome is a huge hedge, nothing more.

sam callahan said:

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Saying there is a 30% chance of one of the options of a non repeatable binary outcome is a huge hedge, nothing more.

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Nonsense.

Nate Silver is, fundamentally, a gambler. (He is also pretty good at it, having walked away with $92,000 from the World Series of Poker Main Event last month.) If you are wagering on an outcome, having the most accurate sense possible of the probabilities involved is absolutely critical.

Outfits like the New York Times or HuffPo that had Hillary as a 90%+ favorite suggested that a wager on Trump was a near certain loser. In reality, anyone who bet Trump at 10-1 or more cleaned house. Silver's model suggested that such a bet was more than justifiable.

nortex97 said:

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Is Ilhan going to somehow lose her primary, or is literally campaigning against America/Minnesota popular enough to carry her?

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She is running against the same person (Don Samuels, a Jamaican immigrant) who came within less than 2500 votes of beating her last time and appears to have more of a campaign infrastructure this go round.

It also bears repeating: Somalis make up a whopping 3% of Omar's district, which is 60% white.

Ilhan Omar is in Congress because a lot of white liberals in Minneapolis want to be represented by someone like Ilhan Omar.

Samuels has said a lot of tasteless things, but at least he isn't openly rooting for Hamas. I hope he wins.

7/1 model update.

Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024

YokelRidesAgain said:

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nortex97 said:

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Is Ilhan going to somehow lose her primary, or is literally campaigning against America/Minnesota popular enough to carry her?

---

She is running against the same person (Don Samuels, a Jamaican immigrant) who came within less than 2500 votes of beating her last time and appears to have more of a campaign infrastructure this go round.

It also bears repeating: Somalis make up a whopping 3% of Omar's district, which is 60% white.

Ilhan Omar is in Congress because a lot of white liberals in Minneapolis want to be represented by someone like Ilhan Omar.

Samuels has said a lot of tasteless things, but at least he isn't openly rooting for Hamas. I hope he wins.

---

I suppose you are trying to make this a racialist debate but I'll decline, other than to re-state that white 'liberals' are the worst. People get the government they deserve.

Never, ever vote for a democrat. There are always at least two better choices. And polling shows…America is tiring quickly of 'Democrats' as is Europe.

LMCane said:

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we pretty much want every poll to be like this with Trump having a +5 lead

enough to stop leftist cheating,

but not too much where Biden drops out because it is impossible to win.

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Lol we're thinking alike. We need him to go all out and stay in. We all know Hunter has strong uppers, he'll give his dad a heart attack if needed

nortex97 said:

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I suppose you are trying to make this a racialist debate but I'll decline, other than to re-state that white 'liberals' are the worst. People get the government they deserve.

Never, ever vote for a democrat. There are always at least two better choices. And polling shows…America is tiring quickly of 'Democrats' as is Europe.

---

I'm not "debating" anything, just pointing out that a wave of Muslim immigrants did not take over the Twin Cities, and they certainly don't have enough demographic influence to win anything other than 1 or 2 House seats in the state legislature.

As to the second point, in Minneapolis the Democratic primary is the election. If one wants to cast a protest vote in the general, go ahead, but it isn't going to make any difference as to the outcome.

In a clear-cut choice between bad and way worse, it is logical to choose bad, not vote for magical unicorn fairy dust.

will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

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Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

It's still unconscionable to vote for a Democrat, including in a Democrat party primary. Usually, that would require one to be registered as a democrat (perish the thought), but even if an open primary, writing in a non-democrat's name makes for the only patriotic alternative to supporting one who represents an enemy to the republic and people. The Democrat party represents the invasion, bankruptcy, and subjugation to outside/WEF/international forces of the people of the United States, and there are no occasions to vote for someone who willingly is a member of/identifies with the Party, which is why one of my favorite truth's is to exclaim 'never, ever vote for a Democrat.'

Anyway, more good news;

Quote:

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President Joe Biden plunged even further in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast on Monday in the wake of his disastrous debate performance last week.

"[We've] got a string of polls in late this afternoon, they're mostly poor for Joe Biden, and they're beginning to have a bigger impact on the model," wrote Silver in Monday's forecast. "Trump now leads by 2.7 points in our national average. And Biden's win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night."

He continued, "Our guess is that more likely than not, there's some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it's almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It's not great news for the president."

---

Penn:

#New General Election Poll - Pennsylvania

🔴 Trump 48% (+4)
🔵 Biden 44%

Cygnal #B - 800 LV - 6/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I know incumbency is powerful but I am amazed the CCP Senate candidate in Penn is ahead relatively comfortably (though under 50) when the same poll shows Trump similarly ahead (+4). Again, individual polls don't really matter but it makes me question both results;

#New Senate Poll - Pennsylvania

🔵 Casey 46% (+4)
🔴 McCormick 42%

Cygnal #B - 800 LV - 6/28 pic.twitter.com/Cr0GrWjMAo

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

The shift between Decision Desk HQ’s pre/post debate battleground poll averages & forecasts: pic.twitter.com/UO4GItY9Y4

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 2, 2024

will25u said:

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The shift between Decision Desk HQ’s pre/post debate battleground poll averages & forecasts: pic.twitter.com/UO4GItY9Y4

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 2, 2024

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What this shows is 1) the incredible bias that the media has created 2) the lack of curiosity by most Americans - I'll just listen to whatever I'm told and go with it (scary), and 3) changing people's minds is really hard.

Column on the right just means that this table is stupid. Hardly any state polls were taken post debate.