I hope you're right, but I wonder about a couple of those.

nortex97 said:

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More good news!

#NEW General Election Poll - Swing States

Wisconsin
🔴 Trump 48% (+10)
🔵 Biden 38%

Pennsylvania
🔴 Trump 46% (+5)
🔵 Biden 41%

Michigan
🔴 Trump 51% (+15)
🔵 Biden 36%

Arizona
🔴 Trump 47% (+4)
🔵 Biden 43%

Kaplan #82 - 800 RV (Each State) - 4/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 26, 2024

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Great numbers but they're hard to believe. Trump by 10 in Wisconsin ? Trump by 15 in Michigan ?

I think those numbers are bull *****

No way Trump is up 10 in Wisconsin and 15 in Michigan.

First off, both of those states tend to be the closest in every other poll, and Wisconsin is the one where Biden often has a small lead. Unless a bunch of other polls come out with similar results, I'd toss this one in the trash.

I don't have time right now to check, but I'd bet Kaplan does not have the best track record.

And just for the record, I do not and never have put any trust in polls becase one of my early jobs was doing surveys so I've seen how polls are conducted and know just how easy it is to rig/bias them. As Rush Limbaugh used to say, polls are about making news and shaping public opinion, not reporting on it.

again, polling real live humans to gauge sentiment from registered likely voters would only be a decent predictor if we had secure election systems and processes.

you can't poll mass-mailed harvested ballots and those only vote one way.

Kaplan is garbage. They had Crist or Fried leading DeSantis in early 2022. We all know how that turned out.

oh no said:

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again, polling real live humans to gauge sentiment from registered likely voters would only be a decent predictor if we had secure election systems and processes.

you can't poll mass-mailed harvested ballots and those only vote one way.

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We aren't supposed to talk about "conspiracy theories" on this thread because it triggers some posters…

With that said, I think polling above the MOE helps temper some of those efforts…

FireAg said:

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poling above the MOE

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polls don't matter anymore. MOE is useless when the actual margin is whatever is needed to achieve predetermined results, no matter how long it takes to "find" enough mailed in ballots. We've already seen this story play out and nothing has changed since then.

The only poll that really matters for an incumbent running for reelection (barring massive fraud of course) is approval ratings, IMO. Those get much below 50% say ten points, almost impossible to gain reelection. Although I believe approval polls have only been around since Eisenhower.

Huh. Maybe this helps figure out what the real MOE is, if you can figure out how many ballots will be mass-mailed out.

About one in five mail-in ballots in the last election was fraudulent, handing Biden the presidency. We know this because the people who committed the fraud have admitted it in a new poll. pic.twitter.com/fxHL9hT4sw

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) April 26, 2024

oh no said:

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FireAg said:

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poling above the MOE

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polls don't matter anymore. MOE is useless when the actual margin is whatever is needed to achieve predetermined results, no matter how long it takes to "find" enough mailed in ballots. We've already seen this story play out and nothing has changed since then.

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Respectfully disagree…

Harder to convince the masses when the polling lopsided…

It needs to be lopsided though…

I have zero doubt national polls are all manufactured to fit the desired narrative. Come November, the polls will show a dead heat, giving Dems the cover to "find" however many votes they need to eke out another improbable victory.

I have a theory that heading into the conventions the polls try to craft the narrative that the GOP is winning, so that afterward in the last 60 days they can show momentum for the communist ticket/party. It's a little early for that right now, though. Early summer/late spring polls are probably the most honest public ones.

🚨 CNN POLL:

— President Trump leads Biden 49% to 43% in a two-way race.

— President Trump leads Biden 42% to 33% including third party candidates.

— 55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success. pic.twitter.com/0Xn0j7oVia

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 28, 2024

Artorias said:

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I have zero doubt national polls are all manufactured to fit the desired narrative. Come November, the polls will show a dead heat

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This is exactly correct.

The pollsters all know how to control their inputs so they can get their desired output, it's not that difficult.

It's all about fundraising.

In reality, there are about 30,000 or so voters in each of AZ, PA, MI, NV, and WI that are going to determine the presidency.

Everyone else has already made up their mind, and it's going to be the same party they've been voting for since 2016.

55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success from the CNN poll.

That may be the most encouraging poll result I've seen.

I infer from that the only people who think Trump's presidency was unsuccessful and Biden's successful are hardcore dems. For those numbers to be accurate almost all independents have to land on Trump's side.

This type of opinion isn't going to change before the election.

If Trump and his campaign repeatedly reinforce this, they should win. Keep pounding "You and the world were better off with Trump than with Biden" theme.

Listen carefully

Barack Obama addresses voting at a Daca meeting. pic.twitter.com/E04iYcOIFc

— Freyja™ (@FreyjaTarte) April 28, 2024

The millions and millions of noncitizens will vote pretty much one way and they aren't in the polls. This is how Marxism wins.


Also, polls give you a predictive indicator on how registered likely voters will consciously exercise their right. They don't predict how millions of harvested mass-mailed out ballots with no audit trail will be filled out though.

ImSoDumb said:

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Just a reminder don't trust the polls. Republicans crushed it in the RCP average right before the 2022 midterm elections. Here is how much Dems overperformed on elections day Nov 2022.

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"MoSt seCuRe ElEcTiOn EvAh"

Yep

With mail-in voting and ballot harvesting, the polls are irrelevant. The Democrats will cheat, and they will win.

You can't beat the cheat. https://t.co/hnKMEcNO66

— James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) April 29, 2024

Convincing people that it's pointless to vote does not help your cause.

Waffledynamics said:

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Convincing people that it's pointless to vote does not help your cause.

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keep voting, even if the results are predetermined, because if you don't even vote at all, you can't complain about it anymore.

Dem operatives were Geo-tracked going back and forth from dem precinct offices and ballot boxes. The election was stolen. Treason.

And the red wave was stolen also, not just President.

https://rumble.com/v1238uc-2000-mules-trailer.html

Layne Staley said:

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Dem operatives were Geo-tracked going back and forth from dem precinct offices and ballot boxes. The election was stolen. Treason.

And the red wave was stolen also, not just President.

https://rumble.com/v1238uc-2000-mules-trailer.html

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yeah but they could have been Uber drivers so BAM! All fraud debunked. Most secure election ever, clearly.

Historical Approval ratings at this time in presidency:

•Eisenhower: 73.2 percent
•Nixon: 53.7 percent
•Carter: 47.7 percent
•Reagan: 54.5 percent
•G.H.W. Bush: 41.8 percent
•Clinton: 53 percent
•G.W. Bush: 51 percent
•Obama: 45.9 percent
•Trump: 46.8 percent

Biden’s…

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) April 29, 2024

How in the world is it so high at 38%?

🚨BREAKING: A South Carolina State Representative discloses that voter registration forms are being distributed to non-citizens by the federal government.

A refugee received this form with her packet at the Social Security Office in Spartanburg.

Source: @RepAdamMorgan pic.twitter.com/uFPukixoMA

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) April 29, 2024

Again, polls don't show the illegal non-citizens who will have ballots harvested for them.

oh no said:

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Historical Approval ratings at this time in presidency:

•Eisenhower: 73.2 percent
•Nixon: 53.7 percent
•Carter: 47.7 percent
•Reagan: 54.5 percent
•G.H.W. Bush: 41.8 percent
•Clinton: 53 percent
•G.W. Bush: 51 percent
•Obama: 45.9 percent
•Trump: 46.8 percent

Biden’s…

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) April 29, 2024

How in the world is it so high at 38%?

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Because the media's not covering Americans being held hostage by Islamic terrorists in the Middle East in 2024 like it did Americans being held hostage by Islamic terrorists in the Middle East in 1980.

Literally started Ted Koppell's program "Nightline" to give Americans an update on what was happening after the late local news each and every night.

Now the networks give people the nonsense of Colbert, Kimmel and Fallon, none of whom is likely even aware of how many Americans are being held in Hamas tunnels.

Harvard Harris survey has trump up 4 yesterday nationally in the two-way race, and 46-39-12 in the 3-way.

Biden is fixing to lose a few more points due to his lack of leadership regarding the campus protests.

SA68AG said:

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Biden is fixing to lose a few more points due to his lack of leadership regarding the campus protests.

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with humans in polling; not with harvested mass-mailed out ballots

SA68AG said:

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55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success from the CNN poll.

That may be the most encouraging poll result I've seen.

I infer from that the only people who think Trump's presidency was unsuccessful and Biden's successful are hardcore dems. For those numbers to be accurate almost all independents have to land on Trump's side.

This type of opinion isn't going to change before the election.

If Trump and his campaign repeatedly reinforce this, they should win. Keep pounding "You and the world were better off with Trump than with Biden" theme.

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I tend to agree.

I think Trump is in a MUCH better position than a lot of people are giving him credit for. I also think Alvin Bragg's trial will continue to help him.

It is the continued party shakeup we are seeing all over the country.

Update: Trump up 10 per Rasmussen.

Election 2024: Trump Now +10 Over Biden

Despite being on trial in New York City, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden during the past month.

More At Rasmussen Reports:https://t.co/5Z3HcypssA pic.twitter.com/h4W5A6t2FL

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May 3, 2024

If true and the trend continues Biden is toast.

I look forward to the massive meltdown.

It would take a 10 point margin or higher to have a chance of overcoming the "anomalies" that we all know are coming on election night.

bobbranco said:

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If true and the trend continues Biden is toast.

I look forward to the massive meltdown.

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2024 is definitely looking more like 2016 in that way…

The numbers don't lie.

America wants mass deportation.

Big numbers in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/CAPpnn5vYW

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) May 4, 2024

WTF is wrong with Oregon? Wow, portlandia indeed. Note Trump is up 12 if you include the Kennedy-commie ticket.