Muh Polls

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:51a, 10/16/24
Hungry Ojos said:
If Trump is ahead, no matter how small a margin, in the popular vote, there is no way he can lose the electoral college, right?


Would be extremely difficult. Would have to run up the score in Texas, Ohio and Florida to a huge amount and then narrowly miss out on the others
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McInnis 03
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9:54a, 10/16/24
AG
At this point, polls are secondary. Gonna need a thread on votes/ ballots returned
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LMCane
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In reply to jr15aggie • 9:57a, 10/16/24
jr15aggie said:
I'm still having fun comparing polling from the previous 2 elections. There's never been a modern election where we have 1 constant to compare across 3 different polling cycles (Trump being that constant).


2016 Polls pretty heavily favored Hillary and Trump won the electoral college big with some narrow swing state victories.

2020 Polls VERY heavily favored Biden and Biden won the electoral college big with some razor thin swing state victories.

2024 Polls now slightly favoring Trump so it's hard to imagine Kamala even getting close. She may only do slightly worse than Hillary with regards to electoral votes, but some of the swing states won't be near as close and Trump might even take the popular vote.

At least, that's what the polling comparisons are saying.
it really just comes down to one issue

have the pollsters "fixed" their undercounts of Trump supporters?

or have they suddenly become less in bed with the democrats?

I can't see either of those really being true.

if they are still undercounting Trump support from the "unaffiliated" and seldom voters-

Trump can take this.
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LMCane
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 9:59a, 10/16/24
Quo Vadis? said:
Hungry Ojos said:
If Trump is ahead, no matter how small a margin, in the popular vote, there is no way he can lose the electoral college, right?


Would be extremely difficult. Would have to run up the score in Texas, Ohio and Florida to a huge amount and then narrowly miss out on the others
no way

the margin is 61-39% today in California poll for Harris

if somehow Trump were to win the national vote-

he would destroy Harris in the electoral college.
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LMCane
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In reply to TheWoodlandsTxAg • 10:01a, 10/16/24
TheWoodlandsTxAg said:
If Polymarket and Predictit are right, and the mainstream polling industry fails again with their "high quality polls" like they did in 2016 and 2020 then they are basically over as a industry.

No one will ever trust them again.

The only people with any credibility will be Mark Mitchell, Rich Baris, Scott Rasmussen, Atlas Intel, and Trafalgar.

I can't believe mainstream Democrat aligned polling had Biden +11 Wisconsin in 2020 (final NY Times Siena), and it ended up being a dead heat. Reuters had Biden +10 in 2020 in their final Wisconsin poll. CNN, Emerson, and CNBC were almost as bad. The only one that got it correct was Trafalgar.

What a failure by the Dem aligned mainstream media polls.
you assume that it was a "failure" by the leftist polling companies

incorrect.

they know their polls are wrong- but it is part of an effort to elect democrats.

if you are an undecided voter -

are you voting for the winners leading by 11 in the polls?

or the "fascist" losing by 11 in the polls?
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twk
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 10:19a, 10/16/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
If Trump is ahead, no matter how small a margin, in the popular vote, there is no way he can lose the electoral college, right?
It seems unlikely. But, as the article I linked above pointed out, national polling data indicates that Trump's support in blue states has pretty clearly increased in 2024, but his support in red states and swing states has remained fairly static. If that is correct, we could see a scenario where the popular vote is extremely close, but so is the electoral college, unlike in 2016 and 2024.
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rathAG05
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10:20a, 10/16/24
AG
Ha there been any exit polling from the early voting states yet?
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TRM
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In reply to rathAG05 • 11:05a, 10/16/24
AG
There probably has been, but they can't release that until election day.
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Quo Vadis?
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11:10a, 10/16/24
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 11:18a, 10/16/24
AG
McInnis 03 said:
At this point, polls are secondary. Gonna need a thread on votes/ ballots returned


https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3488894/1#discussion
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LMCane
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11:28a, 10/16/24
what is amazing is that in the last two days the STATE polls are all trending Trump bigtime

and the NATIONAL polls are showing a large Harris lead (except for Marquette)

then we have THIS

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mslags97
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11:48a, 10/16/24
AG
The fact that the first time in ages Republicans outnumber Dems, and yet the polling always use +3 to +7 Dems and still Trump is tied or leading everywhere is a really good sign moving forward. Not just for Trump but for Senate and Congress.
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LMCane
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In reply to mslags97 • 11:51a, 10/16/24
mslags97 said:
The fact that the first time in ages Republicans outnumber Dems, and yet the polling always use +3 to +7 Dems and still Trump is tied or leading everywhere is a really good sign moving forward. Not just for Trump but for Senate and Congress.
if these Pew numbers are correct that the GOP has a majority in identification this month...

Trump will win. because as you state they are always using polls with a democrat party advantage
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TheHulkster
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11:51a, 10/16/24
AG
These polls, and the selective reporting on them, are wild.

Just take a look at the front page of Drudge right now. The Marist poll showing +5 Harris is in red font up top, then all the linked stories and opinions discussing the election are how a Harris victory is basically expected by everyone who knows anything.

Just a wild time. There's gonna be some egg on lots of faces, just yet to see if the faces are gonna be R's or D's.
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agsalaska
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In reply to mslags97 • 12:18p, 10/16/24
AG
mslags97 said:
The fact that the first time in ages Republicans outnumber Dems, and yet the polling always use +3 to +7 Dems and still Trump is tied or leading everywhere is a really good sign moving forward. Not just for Trump but for Senate and Congress.
Yea but to be clear that is not the entire picture on how they balance Dems/Rep in a poll.

But I agree that it is looking good.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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mslags97
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:39p, 10/16/24
AG

[You're deliberately derailing the thread despite clear warnings to keep the conversation focused on polls and not election fraud or a variety of other tangents. Your bans will increase in length if you continue -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
Captn_Ag05
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1:35p, 10/16/24
AG
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to dallasiteinsa02 • 1:41p, 10/16/24
dallasiteinsa02 said:
In the Qunnipac scenario, it comes down to Arizona with Nevada not mattering. I doubt this is how it plays out.
I also have a hard time seeing NC going blue. They polling any of those folks stranded by the storm who got no help?
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agsalaska
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 1:45p, 10/16/24
AG
I would imagine that NC is impossible to poll right now with any kind of confidence. It would be like polling LA after Katrina.

Until someone shows me how they are making those adjustments I would dismiss NC polling completely right now.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Silvertaps
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:49p, 10/16/24
AG
Qunnipac and Rasmussen should arm wrestle or have a dance off to settle it...their polling results are VERY different. (specifically in NC)
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Captn_Ag05
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1:50p, 10/16/24
AG
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nortex97
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2:46p, 10/16/24
AG
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will25u
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2:51p, 10/16/24
Polling must be bad in Wisconsin if they are pulling out of Milwaukee.

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GigEmMortis
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2:52p, 10/16/24
AG
Apologies if this has been discussed already:

Is there a reason why Polymarket and other prediction markets seems to heavily favor Trump by fairly large margins, compared to many of the polls that are posted in this thread? Is one more accurate than the other, or are they all just a shot in the dark guess?
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4stringAg
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In reply to will25u • 2:58p, 10/16/24
AG
will25u said:
Polling must be bad in Wisconsin if they are pulling out of Milwaukee.

Feels like to me if Trump wins WI, then he's going to win at least one of MI or PA as well and the polls today bear that out. I think he wins GA too.

The election shenanigans in Detroit, Philly, and Atlanta scare the hell out of me though.
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will25u
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In reply to GigEmMortis • 3:11p, 10/16/24
GigEmMortis said:
Apologies if this has been discussed already:

Is there a reason why Polymarket and other prediction markets seems to heavily favor Trump by fairly large margins, compared to many of the polls that are posted in this thread? Is one more accurate than the other, or are they all just a shot in the dark guess?
Public sentiment? Most polling/enthusiasm is going Trumps way currently.
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twk
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In reply to GigEmMortis • 3:13p, 10/16/24
AG
GigEmMortis said:
Apologies if this has been discussed already:

Is there a reason why Polymarket and other prediction markets seems to heavily favor Trump by fairly large margins, compared to many of the polls that are posted in this thread? Is one more accurate than the other, or are they all just a shot in the dark guess?
Betting odds are not guesses at voting margins. The fact that Polymarket's Trump margins are going up just means that bettors are more confident of Trump winning a given state. Now, sure, Trump polling better influences that, but the relationship is not direct, it's more like exponential. As close as these states have been, if Trump looks like he has a solid 3 point lead somewhere, the betting margin goes through the roof.
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 3:18p, 10/16/24
AG
She's not even really close in Georgia. It is just a few older/lower quantity sample size lousy polls to make it look that way, and early voting has trended heavily red as well. WSJ was even just RV.

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FrioAg 00
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4:30p, 10/16/24
AG
Dayum, another jump on Bovada for Trump today. He's up to -165 (62.3%) and it appears mostly based on being favored in Penn and now both Wisc and Mich are dead heats.

I think he's got AZ & GA locked up, which means he only needs one of those three.

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Captn_Ag05
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4:44p, 10/16/24
AG
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:49p, 10/16/24
AG
It's been interesting seeing all other polls tighten to the right and Rasmussen tightening to the left. Will see if that continues.
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Captn_Ag05
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5:11p, 10/16/24
AG
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LMCane
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5:14p, 10/16/24
everyone thinks that Fox News polls always favor the GOP but actually they have always under counted Trump support

especially this year...

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LMCane
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In reply to agsalaska • 5:15p, 10/16/24
agsalaska said:
I would imagine that NC is impossible to poll right now with any kind of confidence. It would be like polling LA after Katrina.

Until someone shows me how they are making those adjustments I would dismiss NC polling completely right now.

one poll of Georgia came out today showing Trump +7

If Trump wins Georgia by more than 2

I can't see him losing NC which is more Republican and more white
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1836er
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In reply to LMCane • 5:18p, 10/16/24
AG
LMCane said:
agsalaska said:
I would imagine that NC is impossible to poll right now with any kind of confidence. It would be like polling LA after Katrina.

Until someone shows me how they are making those adjustments I would dismiss NC polling completely right now.

one poll of Georgia came out today showing Trump +7

If Trump wins Georgia by more than 2

I can't see him losing NC which is more Republican and more white


And in recent elections the trend is for GA to poll slightly more to the right, but NC to vote slightly more to the right.
Vance in '28
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