Muh Polls

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2023NCAggies
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7:52p, 10/15/24
SIAP. Trump up 1 in Texas with Hispanics. That's huge, because for Texas to stay red, we need Hispanics

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will25u
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8:01p, 10/15/24
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will25u
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8:04p, 10/15/24
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FrioAg 00
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8:04p, 10/15/24
AG
Two more ticks in a positive direction for Trump today on Bovada. He's up to -145, or an implied 59.2% probability to win.

It's been a steady rise for 3 weeks
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Captn_Ag05
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10:32p, 10/15/24
AG


Another group showing movement to Trump (although not as much as you'd think).
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AgResearch
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:35p, 10/15/24
AG
That demographic is the one that absolutely blows my mind with their support of Dems.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:47p, 10/15/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 12:00a, 10/16/24
AG
They actually do have the crosstabs published, and this is of note:



Also, I don't buy this result, but they are a rated due to their results from 2020 and 2022.
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TRM
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 12:00a, 10/16/24
AG
Enjoy
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202410150832.pdf
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GoAgs11
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12:03a, 10/16/24
They were 8 points off in 2020 point remains
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:04a, 10/16/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
They actually do have the crosstabs published, and this is of note:



Also, I don't buy this result, but they are a rated due to their results from 2020 and 2022.


Things like this just don't make sense to me. He leads in independents, is making big strides in the minority vote, yet they have him down 5? What percentage of women did they poll?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:11a, 10/16/24
AG
51% women/49% men

They show Trump getting 23% of the black vote and 45% of the Hispanic vote. But only 51% of the white vote. Men are going Trump by 6% and women for Harris by 13%.

Something's off with the whitemen in this poll - seem far too pro Harris than other recent polls.
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TRM
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:24a, 10/16/24
AG
From page 11 on the PDF I posted has the relevant crosstabs

I've raised this issue a couple times before, but Trump is losing white voters. Every point Trump loses from his white vote share, he has to gain 3 points from the Latino/black vote to offset it or 6 points when looking at a specific group. Trump won around 58% of whites in 2020 and is polling at 51% percent here. He hasn't made a 21% dent in the minority vote.

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TRM
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 12:56a, 10/16/24
AG
They don't give a breakdown of race by region/state, so it's hard to say for sure. Now, if I look at this 2020 exit poll, the Marist numbers are in the same area. Now, the Midwest moved from Trump 51%-47% in 2020 to 49%-49% in this poll, so it could be there or elsewhere where losses were offset by other gains..
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Quo Vadis?
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1:04a, 10/16/24
Good post from Girdusky on Marist



No way trump loses if he wins indies by 10
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Quo Vadis?
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1:07a, 10/16/24


Kamala +1 is an electoral bloodbath
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GoAgs11
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1:22a, 10/16/24
Plus 5 for Harris nationally means Fla And Texas are in play marist is way off here
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 3:12a, 10/16/24
GoAgs11 said:
Plus 5 for Harris nationally means Fla And Texas are in play marist is way off here


Literally impossible for her to be up 5 if Ind are +10 trump

Lets go crazy and say

D 4-96 (36%)
R 94-6 (33%)
I 55-45 (30%)

Trump= 1.44 + 31.02 + 16.5 = 48.96%
Kamala= 34.56 + 1.98 + 13.5 = 50.04 %

I would buy that. Unless Trump is somehow hemorrhaging support from republicans, I don't see Kamala + 5
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nortex97
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5:12a, 10/16/24
AG


Latino's are a diverse/broad bucket nationally, and tough to consistently group imho, but this should be very good for many other states if it holds up.




Rallston Nevada crystal ball is broken, can't predict this time, based on party changes, polls.
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6:28a, 10/16/24

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nortex97
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6:30a, 10/16/24
AG
On poly market Trump has hit the mythical 60:


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6:45a, 10/16/24
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SwigAg11
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6:55a, 10/16/24
AG
Man, the Marquette and Marist polls are swinging wildly in opposite directions.
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twk
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8:12a, 10/16/24
AG
Not exactly the most unbiased source, but towards the end of this article, some interesting observations about the national polling numbers:

NBC - Chuck Todd

Quote:
There has been some analysis, chiefly led by The New York Times' Nate Cohn, arguing that the possibility of a massive split between the popular vote and the Electoral College, which has been a big story in the last two presidential elections, may disappear this cycle.

In our most recent NBC News poll, our pollsters sorted the head-to-head ballot test by core Trump/GOP states, core Harris/Democratic states and then a dozen more closely contested states in the middle. Then, they compared the results this cycle with 2020 and 2016.

What's interesting is how much smaller the Democratic lead is in "blue" states in 2024 compared with 2020 and 2016. In 2016, Trump lost the core Democratic states by 22 points, and in 2020, he lost them by 24 points. In this most recent poll, Trump was losing the core Democratic states by only 13 points.

Meanwhile, though Trump's support grew some in the blue states, it has stayed stagnant in the red states and battleground states. In 2016, Trump won the core GOP states by 18 points, and in 2020, his margin in the red states was 16 points. In this most recent poll, it was also 16 points. And the battleground-state margin stood at 1 point all three times, moving only slightly between the parties.

What does this all mean? If the polling trend holds and Trump improves in the blue states without winning any of them, the likelihood that the Electoral College winner (no matter who it is) will also carry the popular vote has increased.

Who knows what Trump's blue-state arena tour over the next 10 days does to his blue-state support, but one thing is for sure: If he wins the presidency while also winning the popular vote, it will be a different kind of mandate for him from the one he claimed to have gotten in 2016
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nortex97
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8:19a, 10/16/24
AG
This is great;



They simply don't have covid rules/conservatives frustrated with lockdowns etc. to spike support for a somehow worst-in-a-generation candidate on their side, imho. The fat lady hasn't sung but she's definitely warming up her voice.
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Joes
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8:26a, 10/16/24
There are two worlds on this forum, the detailed study of polls and the current optimism about how Trump is trending on one hand alongside the multiple new threads per day saying that it's already a forgone conclusion that the Dems will steal the election blatantly and with impunity no matter how anyone votes. I can't wait to see both sides try to reconcile this next month.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:28a, 10/16/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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8:30a, 10/16/24
AG
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FrioAg 00
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:57a, 10/16/24
AG



This right here is the key to saving this country, long term.

Mexican immigrants still outnumber all others by a large margin, both in what's already here and what's crossing.

If we can continue to shift them towards conservative (a movement we have now seen for 8 years) we can survive this woke cancer.
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nortex97
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9:19a, 10/16/24
AG
Many polls are to closing this week (those not intending to drive clicks/narratives with last second changes).
Quote:
Four years ago, I explained why it is problematic for public pollsters to release data in the final two weeks of an election. "Public pollsters act like a bartender who keeps pouring whiskey for a drunk customer and is then surprised when the customer wrecks his car on the way home."

Napolitan News will continue to follow that policy. This Friday, October 18, will be our final election polling release for 2024. Instead, as election day gets closer, we will "offer a voter-centric view of the race, measuring underlying attitudes more than attempting to define likely voters".

In the final weeks of an election, a proper use of polling data helps us understand the dynamics of the race. For campaigns, quality polling can help them determine where to deploy resources. For analysts, polls can help them understand what to look for. For example, the polls tell us that the winner of Pennsylvania is likely to become our next president. If the Keystone State is called early on election night for either candidate, we can have a fair level of confidence that candidate is going to win.

Ultimately, the real value of quality polls is for listening to the public, especially to people who are not like us. Such listening requires much more than mathematical precision. It requires asking the right questions from a variety of angles and carefully considering the results as they might be seen by others.


The House polling remains…a concern;
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to TRM • 9:28a, 10/16/24
AG
TRM said:
From page 11 on the PDF I posted has the relevant crosstabs

I've raised this issue a couple times before, but Trump is losing white voters. Every point Trump loses from his white vote share, he has to gain 3 points from the Latino/black vote to offset it or 6 points when looking at a specific group. Trump won around 58% of whites in 2020 and is polling at 51% percent here. He hasn't made a 21% dent in the minority vote.


Question for those who have been able to dive into the crosstabs and analyze the data more: is this consistent across multiple polls, and is it accounted for in sampling bias at all? I've seen some suggestions in this thread that certain groups are oversampled, and I'm wondering if that's related and if this drop in white support is accurate.

I also wonder if it's coincidental with male and female votes splitting further apart from each other.
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LMCane
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9:43a, 10/16/24
to me this is an amazingly important poll.

I would guess the Marquette national poll in 2016 and 2020 had Clinton and Biden ahead by somewhere around 7 points.

if anyone can track that info down would be great.

enjoy!

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9:43a, 10/16/24


I hadn't seen this account but looks like it unskews poll samples. Take it for what it's worth
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Hungry Ojos
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9:47a, 10/16/24
If Trump is ahead, no matter how small a margin, in the popular vote, there is no way he can lose the electoral college, right?
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 9:50a, 10/16/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
If Trump is ahead, no matter how small a margin, in the popular vote, there is no way he can lose the electoral college, right?


Not impossible but highly unlikely
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