Looks correct.

🇷🇺🇺🇸 If Trump wants to build relations with Russia, Russia will participate. pic.twitter.com/KUmFst0Or3 https://t.co/GZjekIFuw9

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 25, 2024

⚡️🇩🇪🇺🇦Scholz - stated that Ukraine's accession to NATO is impossible:

I believe that it is very important to understand that a country in a state of war cannot become a member of NATO. Everyone knows this, and there is no disagreement about this. And in NATO, an invitation… pic.twitter.com/iVHhROLnkv

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) October 25, 2024

Kazan BRICS sitrep:

Quote:

---

Other sources say Russia is moving major reinforcements near the contact lines around Zaporozhye, Donetsk, and potentially elsewhere. Budanov above claimed that the Koreans are being sent to Kursk by the "end of October". Those who've read my last paywalled article know Western sources claimed three new Russian armies would be ready for battle by 'end of October by the latest'the 25th, 40th, and 44th.
So, my proposed hypothesis: Putin could send the DPRK troops to Kursk to relieve Russian forceseven if it's more rear-oriented forcesfor a major new offensive push elsewhere all over the main lines.

Admittedly the idea is a more than a bit silly and improbable on the face of it, but at the same time Putin could seek to send a major message to the West that where Western mercenaries go, now the united front of the multipolar armies will go to meet thema message of deterrence to the West.

This is particularly the case that after native Ukrainian troops were exterminated in Kursk, there are recent reports of a massive flood of Westernparticularly South Americanmercenaries flooding the Russian region.

---

Meh, maybe, but still not sure it would matter. The Russians have plenty of forces/combatants. The Kursk caldron Zelensky/Syrsky brilliantly created seems to be going well:

Russian troops now pushing through former AFU artillery positions - areas that were once well behind the front - in Kursk.

This is what's left of a 2S22 "Bogdana." pic.twitter.com/ifsQONW3go

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) October 25, 2024

ANALYSIS: NEW CAULDRONS IN SOUTH DONETSK TO ELIMINATE FOR RUSSIA, OCT 24, 2024
After a while of grinding battles both north and south of Selidove RuAF seems to make real progress and are on the verge of creating two cauldrons. The coming 3-4 weeks much of the focus at the Donetsk… pic.twitter.com/t0ibOqCBwT

— Mikael Valtersson (@MikaelValterss1) October 24, 2024

Sounds about right.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/europe/russian-soldiers-north-korean-recruits-intercepts-intl/index.html

Russias manpower woes are forcing desperate integration with North Korean recruits. I haven't done the research but I'm not sure which war in history Mother Russia had to rely on North Koreans to win their unstoppable attrition strategy.

Teslag said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/europe/russian-soldiers-north-korean-recruits-intercepts-intl/index.html

Russias manpower woes are forcing desperate integration with North Korean recruits. I haven't done the research but I'm not sure which war in history Mother Russia had to rely on North Koreans to win their unstoppable attrition strategy.

---

Let's be honest. North Korea doesn't blow their nose without Chinese permission. This is just further escalation from the Chinese to bolster Russian / BRICS relationship without having to put their face or name on it. Sounds familiar doesn't it.

Teslag said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/europe/russian-soldiers-north-korean-recruits-intercepts-intl/index.html

Russias manpower woes are forcing desperate integration with North Korean recruits. I haven't done the research but I'm not sure which war in history Mother Russia had to rely on North Koreans to win their unstoppable attrition strategy.

---

Do you have the actual "intercepted audio"? Or are you asking us to take CNN's word for it?

Staff has been clear that simply questioning a source is not allowed on this thread.

MJ20/20 said:

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Teslag said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/europe/russian-soldiers-north-korean-recruits-intercepts-intl/index.html

Russias manpower woes are forcing desperate integration with North Korean recruits. I haven't done the research but I'm not sure which war in history Mother Russia had to rely on North Koreans to win their unstoppable attrition strategy.

---

Let's be honest. North Korea doesn't blow their nose without Chinese permission. This is just further escalation from the Chinese to bolster Russian / BRICS relationship without having to put their face or name on it. Sounds familiar doesn't it.

---

Negative. Russia needs bodies. That is without question at this point due to the casualty rates and Russia's lack of meaningful advance over the past year.

Teslag said:

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Staff has been clear that simply questioning a source is not allowed on this thread.

---

I'm trying to find the source material. Daily Mail is the only other outlet I can find with reporting on this, but they did not include the audio either.

They probably want bodies more than need, but that's splitting hairs at this point. They've purged criminals, drunks, and most likely political dissidants. China is probably (not probably as we know this is pretty standard for the CCP) more than willing to purge worthless eaters from North Korea. No skin off anyones back that can do anything about it. They know (and we have a pretty good idea) that either North Korean trained or Russian trained North Koreans won't last long in theater and most lilely all parties involved are fine with that.

Kiev restrictions on ATACMS strikes into Russia kept in place by State/CIA folks:

Quote:

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The Pentagon and US Intelligence Committee (IC) have both advised Washington against allowing Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory, Fox News reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed official.

According to analysis cited by Fox, giving the green light for Kiev to use US-supplied ATACMS missiles would have no strategic impact, while risking further escalation between Washington and Moscow.

---

Ukrainians moving to Donetsk/Crimea:

https://t.co/xyFtZGjd7m

It was 5,3 million ukrainian refugees in 2023 seeking azylum in safe and friendly country for them - Russia

— Martin Demirov 🇸🇰 (@MartinDemirow) October 23, 2024

Russia plans no concessions:

⚡️Russia 'not planning any concessions,' Putin says on peace talks with Ukraine.

Any peace agreement to end Russia's war with Ukraine must be in Moscow's favor, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with state media on Oct. 25.https://t.co/NYz2aoZl4U

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 25, 2024

Realistically, Russia will however face a budgeting (not manpower) challenge in a couple years, imho. If manpower itself were a problem, they'd still be using PMC's a la 2022 etc. much more broadly.

Combined defense and national security spending will exceed 8% of Russia's GDP, accounting for 40% of federal expenditure - the highest since the Soviet Union's collapse 2/

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) October 8, 2024

It's good/optimistic to see some pressure to end the war on the Moscow side as well, imho.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Teslag said:

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Staff has been clear that simply questioning a source is not allowed on this thread.

---

I'm trying to find the source material. Daily Mail is the only other outlet I can find with reporting on this, but they did not include the audio either.

---

Do you speak Russian? Or Korean?

Russian soldiers heard condemning North Korean recruits in intercepted audio | CNN

The Russian soldiers talk disdainfully about the incoming North Korean soldiers, codenamed the "K Battalion," at one point referring to them as "the ****ing Chinese."

In the same extract, a serviceman describes another who has been tasked to "meet people."

"And he's like standing there with his eyes out, like… ****," the soldier says. "He came here and says what the **** to do with them."

The audio was intercepted from encrypted Russian transmission channels on the night of October 23, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence.

Ukraine's analysis of the intercepts revealed that North Korean troop movements were planned for the morning of October 24, in the area of Postoyalye Dvory field camp in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion earlier this year.

The intercepts also reveal plans to have one interpreter and three senior officers for every 30 North Korean men, which the Russian soldiers are heard in the audio condemning
[url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/24/asia/russia-china-north-korea-iran-new-axis-intl-hnk][/url]
"The only thing I don't understand is that there [should be] three senior officers for 30 people. Where do we get them? We'll have to pull them out," one Russian serviceman says.

"I'm f***ing telling you, there are 77 battalion commanders coming in tomorrow, there are commanders, deputy commanders and so on," a serviceman says in another extract.

--
Russia doing this for whatever reason, whether a PR move or actually getting desperate for manpower help, is pretty stupid regardless. Sounds like the Russian soldiers may very well agree with me.

To be honest, that sounds like typical junior enlisted military chatter. Profanity and griping is just part of the culture, from my ancient recollections. Still, I think the Nork stuff is a silly media exercise, not anything meaningful, again.

What would be significant (and also won't ever happen), is if the Chinese sent their own soldiers (and commanders). Again, that is simply not ever going to happen. Random mercenaries from Africa or a few thousand NoKo soldiers for the cameras are intended for what they are being used for; a narrative.

“It’s time to prepare Dnipropertovsk for defense”

The situation in southern Donetsk is dire for the AFU. pic.twitter.com/aYnYzJxqMP

— ayden (@squatsons) October 25, 2024

LOL @ Europe panicking over the potential of American aid to 'Ukraine' ending under Trump's pending second term:

Senior EU officials are holding daily meetings to outline where a Donald Trump presidency could cause the most pain for the bloc. Topics under discussion include dealing with potential trade tariffs and how to offset an end to US aid to Ukraine. https://t.co/aNl8aAu1GX pic.twitter.com/6kIoxkdtMI

— Financial Times (@FT) October 25, 2024

Still, I think the Nork stuff is a silly media exercise, not anything meaningful, again.

Given that it opens up Putin to being mocked with regards to 'needing North Korea help', and even potentially stirring up increased support by his enemies (South Korea is apparently now talking about sending weapons to Ukraine), and Putin has even been trying to deny it which doesn't really align with a PR stunt, then what was the point on the Russian side?

It is hard to see what the upside here was for them but easy to see some PR hits and even actual military downside if it is distracting his own troops in any way or poking other countries to consider escalating Ukraine aid.

The one logical reason I could see is North Korea pushed this on Russia as a condition for North Korea sending ammunition (which Russia is certainly eager to receive). This is a North Korea PR stunt that Putin has to put up with to get more ammo.

Quote:

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few thousand NoKo soldiers for the cameras are intended for what they are being used for; a narrative.

---

Are they being used that way though? Is Russia parading North Koreans in front of cameras? If there are actually NK troops there it's profoundly embarrassing for Russia, not some propaganda victory. Not surprised the other perspective sees it as no big deal or even good news.

A friend that speaks Russian would translate it for me. No big deal if they wont publish it. I asked because I trust my friend's translations better than the media's.

"More ukrainian refugees moved to Russia, than to the US, Britain, Poland and Germany together..."

Sounds like some Ukrainians want to be Russians.

GAC06 said:

---

Quote:

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few thousand NoKo soldiers for the cameras are intended for what they are being used for; a narrative.

---

Are they being used that way though? Is Russia parading North Koreans in front of cameras? If there are actually NK troops there it's profoundly embarrassing for Russia, not some propaganda victory. Not surprised the other perspective sees it as no big deal or even good news.

---

Absolutely that's how they are being treated/used (for a narrative). You think Nork troops were secretly filmed being handed Russian uniforms in Russia? LOL, no. What was a secret were all those Swedish AEWC soldiers/airmen in Ukraine who were taken out in a missile strike. But anyway, Nato is a 'defensive alliance.'

Putin denies what? He's using the issue, is all.

🇷🇺🇰🇵 Photos of North Korean soldiers are a serious thing, and they reflect something there — Putin on Western journalists' accusations of escalation and the presence of North Korean soldiers in the Russian Federation

"But I will note that the escalation was not caused by… pic.twitter.com/ZRIhaMMyUf

— SYMBOL OF HOPE🫡 (@Chipropro) October 24, 2024

Longer version/analysis:

On-point: Is Putin admitting presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia?#Vladmir_Putin #Russia_Ukraine_war #NorthKorea #NorthKorean_soldiers #북한군_파병 #푸틴 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스 pic.twitter.com/miWnxG8bRC

— Arirang News (@arirangtvnews) October 25, 2024

And I will freely admit this also benefits the pot bellied guy from Pyongyang, which is unfortunate. He loves being seen as projecting military power/strength to Donetsk/Kursk etc. I think it's silly and just a narrative, but whatever, he's a TV/movie 'buff' and loves this crap no doubt, which our media for some reason is hyping up beyond Putin/Kim's wildest expectations.

Quote:

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What was a secret were all those Swedish AEWC soldiers/airmen in Ukraine who were taken out in a missile strike.

---

Who died?

Sweden's foreign minister resigned literally the day after the Poltava strike that took out their 'instructors.' I assumed this was covered elsewhere, sorry.

The most obvious evidence of the effectiveness of the missile strike on Poltava was the swarm of NATO medical aircraft (USA, Germany, Poland, Romania).

They were evacuating both wounded instructors and the dead bodies. 👇 pic.twitter.com/sJr8YhfwVP

— Djole 🇷🇸 (@onlydjole) September 6, 2024

So who died? If a whole bunch of Swedes died, we'd know by now. Also lol at "medical aircraft".

I'm not celebrating the death of a bunch of Swedes, but click on the links/thread I posted and I think you'll figure it out. This isn't a 'gotcha' at all, from me, just a sad recognition of what very clearly happened.

If it "very clearly happened", then who died? That was also two months ago, and without any reports of actual dead Swedes, it's looking more and more like Russian fan fiction.

GAC06 said:

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If it "very clearly happened", then who died? That was also two months ago, and without any reports of actual dead Swedes, it's looking more and more like Russian fan fiction.

---

There's also zero evidence the foreign minister's resignation had anything to do with Ukraine, but that didn't stop our favorite Russian trolls like Simplicus from fabricating the connection.

The Nork troop impact on war coverage in some quarters (the only real impact):

pic.twitter.com/0UaqIPT3UF

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) October 25, 2024

🇷🇺Putin spoke about the units and formations of the Russian Armed Forces that surrounded 2,000 Banderites in the Kursk region:

- The 7th Airborne Division with the 56th Regiment;
- The 83rd Airborne Brigade;
- The 106th Airborne Division with the 51st and 137th Regiments;
- The… pic.twitter.com/24nTuIr8Ag

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) October 26, 2024

🇭🇺🇭🇷 Hungary Summons Croatian Ambassador Amid Diplomatic Tensions Over Ukraine​

The Croatian ambassador was summoned to the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs following a statement by Croatian Minister Ivan Anušić about Hungary’s stance on Ukraine, Hungarian outlet Telex… pic.twitter.com/dl5DIcMjzd

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) October 25, 2024

Putin addresses again the provocation/coup d'etat from 2014, onward responsively to a reporter's question somehow trying to inquire about Trump:

Putin stands in front of a press crowd and answers live accusations from US journalists

Western leaders can’t even handle questions from their own press pic.twitter.com/pfkMT5ovKd

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) October 25, 2024

This whole endeavor is such a pointless distraction at this point. Hope like hell Trump wins so we can get some focus and direction on foreign policy that matters. Examples:

1. Having a coherent policy for the Western Hemisphere.
2. India and China who represent half the world's population by themselves cozying up is sort of a big deal to us and the rest of the world.

Not saying Trump will be able to address these adequately but he sure as hell has more potential to do so than Kamala and the Democrats.

So no explanation for how a bunch of Swedes getting killed "very clearly happened" despite no evidence of Swedes actually missing?

Trump commented on Rogan's show that he can't say/specify what he will discuss with Putin/Saint Zelensky, or the deal wouldn't work, but he is very confident in it. Putin's feedback, fwiw, seems actually pretty positive.



A sobering moment (pro-Kiev analysis):

Quote:

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Ukraine has approached the issue much more tentatively. Those aged 18-24 are exempted from service, something the government says is required because of low birth rates from 2006. It has extended conscription to men of 25-27, and many thousands more have entered the ranks as a result, but an unknown number are dodging the draft. The defense ministry said about 500,000 were eligible for military service under the expanded criteria this year.

Almost half of Ukrainian men not currently in the military said they are unwilling to fight, a survey earlier this year showed, something mirrored in Russia where hundreds of thousands have fled to avoid the call-up.

But even at the current incredibly high rate of Russian casualties in so-called "meat assaults," it is likely that Moscow can outlast Kyiv in a purely attritional fight.

With an estimated 500,000 active-duty soldiers, Ukraine's military is stretched thin across a wide front, from Kharkiv in the northeast to Kherson in the south. Despite several waves of mobilization, Kyiv has struggled to replace its battlefield losses, leading to concerns about troop exhaustion and morale. This is compounded by the reality that many of Ukraine's most experienced units have been significantly degraded after months of intense fighting.

Some analysts now believe that Kyiv's gamble on August's Kursk offensive, while initially wildly successful, has unwisely and further sapped the already limited manpower available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

Nice to see the demographics noted, even in a pro-war piece/publication. Mike Baker's PDB podcast today with Buck Sexton dealt with the prospect of peace with Russia/'Ukraine' well. All I have is the Spotify link, sorry.

"…We have cost Ukraine her territory, her children, the war hawks and the bankers have never stood with the people of Ukraine." -quite an open from Tucker.


She's a great follow on X fyi, RFK's grand daughter:

The Blob in Washington has been secretly encouraging Israel to start a war with Iran, while publicly calling for them to deescalate.

Vice President Harris, there’s no joy in your Administration lying to the world about helping stoke WWIII.

But then again, Dick Cheney and your…

— Amaryllis Fox (@amaryllisfox) October 1, 2024

Vote for Trump, and help end the war, while preventing others.

nortex97 said:

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Trump commented on Rogan's show that he can't say/specify what he will discuss with Putin/Saint Zelensky, or the deal wouldn't work, but he is very confident in it. Putin's feedback, fwiw, seems actually pretty positive.



A sobering moment (pro-Kiev analysis):

Quote:

---

Ukraine has approached the issue much more tentatively. Those aged 18-24 are exempted from service, something the government says is required because of low birth rates from 2006. It has extended conscription to men of 25-27, and many thousands more have entered the ranks as a result, but an unknown number are dodging the draft. The defense ministry said about 500,000 were eligible for military service under the expanded criteria this year.

Almost half of Ukrainian men not currently in the military said they are unwilling to fight, a survey earlier this year showed, something mirrored in Russia where hundreds of thousands have fled to avoid the call-up.

But even at the current incredibly high rate of Russian casualties in so-called "meat assaults," it is likely that Moscow can outlast Kyiv in a purely attritional fight.

With an estimated 500,000 active-duty soldiers, Ukraine's military is stretched thin across a wide front, from Kharkiv in the northeast to Kherson in the south. Despite several waves of mobilization, Kyiv has struggled to replace its battlefield losses, leading to concerns about troop exhaustion and morale. This is compounded by the reality that many of Ukraine's most experienced units have been significantly degraded after months of intense fighting.

Some analysts now believe that Kyiv's gamble on August's Kursk offensive, while initially wildly successful, has unwisely and further sapped the already limited manpower available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

---

Nice to see the demographics noted, even in a pro-war piece/publication. Mike Baker's PDB podcast today with Buck Sexton dealt with the prospect of peace with Russia/'Ukraine' well. All I have is the Spotify link, sorry.

"…We have cost Ukraine her territory, her children, the war hawks and the bankers have never stood with the people of Ukraine." -quite an open from Tucker.


She's a great follow on X fyi, RFK's grand daughter:

The Blob in Washington has been secretly encouraging Israel to start a war with Iran, while publicly calling for them to deescalate.

Vice President Harris, there’s no joy in your Administration lying to the world about helping stoke WWIII.

But then again, Dick Cheney and your…

— Amaryllis Fox (@amaryllisfox) October 1, 2024

Vote for Trump, and help end the war, while preventing others.

---

Trump is going to help end the war by getting Putin to withdraw from any land they've taken over in Ukraine because of Putin's invasion?

Of course not. And myself, I don't give a single damn who runs the Donbas/Donetsk, though I think the world is safer if Putin doesn't think he is at risk of losing Crimea/Sevastopol. The population there is surging due to Ukrainians moving there, fyi.

Russian industrial/military production now reaching a level to allow for planned export sales (to key US allies):

Saudi Arabia is acquiring a lot of air defence systems for a very layered defence.

Among which will be the Russian Pantsir-S1.
Seeing Russian military equipment export contracts being signed shows confidence in capability, but most importantly production. pic.twitter.com/2YDrNEnSkm

— Fennec_Radar (@RadarFennec) October 26, 2024

Selidovo, Gornyak and Alexandropol are a wrap. Next step will be to apply more pressure in that salient northeast of the Kurakhovo reservoir, Kurakhovka and such. Then, Kurakhovo itself. pic.twitter.com/k9RXtQqiFM

— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) October 26, 2024

Sitrep:

⚡️🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦‼️🚨NEW REPORT: https://t.co/PeMCeKJB4p#war #russia #ukraine #nato #geopolitics #politics pic.twitter.com/ZKQhYnVnaw

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) October 27, 2024

Good rumor I guess:

Quote:

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First, he states that Russia is ready to negotiate based on current realities. Translation: this means the currently controlled territories are non-negotiable. Putin reaffirms this by again openly stating that on this particular issue there will be no concessions made nor any "exchanges". The exchanges is clearly in reference to Zelensky's previously-voiced plan to "exchange" the Kursk territories for Russian-controlled territories in the Donbass.
However, Putin then goes on to surprisingly say he's open to some "reasonable" compromisesbut what could those possibly be?
One clue is offered in this newly published but unverified text:

Quote:

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"Secret Chancellery" (Taynaya kantselyariya):
"According to our information, the Kremlin is discussing the format and date of the publication of a new ultimatum to Ukraine to begin the negotiation process and discuss detailed points of the peace track with the West.
Putin will personally voice a new proposal to stop the conflict in Ukraine after the US presidential elections, and two different versions of the text are being prepared. One text is for Trump's victory.
He will be offered a relatively soft version, which will preserve a certain amount of room for maneuver for the Republican (in particular, on the issue of the sanitary zone and demilitarization of Ukraine - these aspects can be quite flexible). The second text is for Kamala Harris' victory.
The Democrat will be given a tough ultimatum (according to our information, in addition to the withdrawal of troops from 4 new regions, demilitarization and denazification, Ukraine will be required to create a large sanitary zone along the border perimeter, 150-200 km, where no military infrastructure will be allowed).

---

---

More at the link. Forever war.

About right/true:

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Major General of the Ukrainian army Marchenko says the Ukrainian front is collapsing because:

1) Lack of ammunition and weapons
2) Lack of people, there are no people, no reinforcements, people are very exhausted,
3) An imbalance of control

-> You can’t fix that …… pic.twitter.com/mYoJWpinjn

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 29, 2024

Sitrep: Lightning advance, 'red scare' fever pitch.

Quote:

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But that's not even the most impressive. Just south of there Russian forces have been sweeping through the plains north of Ugledar with multiple kilometer captures per day.

In the very last report just two days ago we mentioned Russian forces just arriving at the southern edge of Shaktarske and Bohoyavlenka. Now in a mere day and change they have already captured most or all of both towns as well as territory in between and even beyond:

---

Good thread from the lovely Diana Panchenko:

Vadim Stolar, Committee on Combating Organized Crime and Corruption.

Lamborghini and villa.

He is a partner of Vitaliy Klitschko. They are suspected of stealing billions from the budget of Kiev.

2/10 pic.twitter.com/Oh7mA7o3dU

— Diana Panchenko 🇺🇦 (@Panchenko_X) October 28, 2024

More at the links. I also saw that Mike Pompeo has joined the board of a Ukrainian concern. So typical.

Not a lot going on in the war, but a sitrep.

Spycraft:

⚡️🇺🇸🇷🇺U.S. CITIZEN EXTRACTED SAFELY TO RUSSIA AFTER SPYING FOR ALMOST 3 YEARS ON UKRAINIAN ARMY - American Daniel Martindale explains how he managed to infiltrate Ukrainian army in Donetsk (ex-Ukraine) with help of Telegram contacts (1st video), thanks Russian forces for daring… pic.twitter.com/3Ufu8gT5WF

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) November 2, 2024

Accelerating pace:

According to Bloomberg, Russian troops have captured more than 200 km² in 7 days of fighting.

Since August 6, the Russian Armed Forces have liberated more than 1,146 km² of territory, which is almost a quarter more than in the first seven months of this year. pic.twitter.com/y6jzehnCYk

— Olga Bazova (@OlgaBazova) November 2, 2024

Big serge sitrep:

Quote:

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The shifting tactical-technical nexus of the Russian offensive has scuttled Ukrainian hopes of a winning attrition calculus. Western officials estimate that the Russian Army continues to intake some 30,000 new recruits per month, which is far more than they need to replenish losses. With Mediazona counting some 23,000 Russian KIA thus far in 2024, Russian margins on manpower are highly sustainable. Meanwhile, Ukraine's pipeline for manpower is becoming ever thinner: even after passing a new mobilization law in May, their pool of replacements in training has fallen by more than 40%, and they currently have just 20,000 new personnel in training. The lack of replacements and rotations has left frontline units exhausted in both material terms and in their psychological state, with desertions and insubordination increasing. Ukrainian attempts to redouble their mobilization program have had mixed results, and have inadvertently increased casualties by prompting Ukrainian men to risk drowning to escape Ukraine.

---

📨 Just in 📄

“We will establish a just government in Ukraine.”

— Dmitry Medvedev
Former President of Russia

— Merdan Halilovic (@merdannp) November 2, 2024

"Russia's army is gaining speed in its advance in eastern Ukraine, seizing more land last week than at any point this year, increasing pressure on Kyiv's US and European allies to bolster its defenses."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-01/russia-speeds-up-advance-in-ukraine-as-mood-darkens-in-kyiv

The Bloomberg analysis is compatible with the stalemate narrative.

Yes Russia is accelerating. Scott Horton episode just dropped, who has a book coming out ("Provoked") on US and Russia dealing with the run up to this war/provocations etc. Very good discussion, around 45 minutes as to Biden-Putin relationship since 2011, former's weakness/contempt for the latter etc.

Two-point-five years and counting of anime-avatar hobby commentators on this website having better takes than the Pentagon: https://t.co/QxxHcvfz3y

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) November 5, 2024

‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠ "Come back, I will forgive everything!" - due to the huge number of losses and deserters, the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades began to appeal to the soldiers who fled from the front

In the 53rd and 47th brigades, men who had fled from the front without permission… pic.twitter.com/UxxUInTftr

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) November 4, 2024

Time to end the war today. Vote!

The acceleration is the key component. Even if I were to accept that slow movement of the lines fits within the definition of a stalemate, (I never have) an increase in the rate of change completely obliterates that notion.