You've sure picked up your posting since the end of July. What is your precise question? The desperation was not the folks in/around Kursk but the other, real battle front.

I guess it depends, as far as the Kursk offensive, what the goal was? Was it to generate positive press? Then it's a great success. Was it to generate meaningful battlefield gains/shifts from the Russians? Then no, not a success. Losing several of their best remaining brigades (including personnel and gear like Strykers etc) in a feint into Russia would be considered a win by the Russians I would guess. HTH.

nortex97 said:

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You've sure picked up your posting since the end of July. What is your precise question? The desperation was not the folks in/around Kursk but the other, real battle front.

I guess it depends, as far as the Kursk offensive, what the goal was? Was it to generate positive press? Then it's a great success. Was it to generate meaningful battlefield gains/shifts from the Russians? Then no, not a success. Losing several of their best remaining brigades (including personnel and gear like Strykers etc) in a feint into Russia would be considered a win by the Russians I would guess. HTH.

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Not sure what my posting habits have to do with the topic at hand ? Thanks for the response though

Based on the limited information and accuracy of information, this reeks of a rope a dope manuever by the Russians. Angling the favorable terrain and Ukraine's willingness to continually devote upper tier personnel and equipment (along with some feaux momentum) to eventually deliver a devestating blow.

girlfriend_experience said:

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nortex97 said:

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Wow.

"A commander of the 24th brigade, recently transferred from Niu-York to Chasiv Yar, two of the hottest sections of the front, says battalions in his brigade are now fighting with just 20 people in position, less than a platoon size...

says his brigade...has been rationed to two… pic.twitter.com/mAuLShTASE

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 8, 2024

Meanwhile;

Reports claim Ukraine has brought up 2 Patriot systems to cover the Kursk grouping.
⚡️There's a report that a Su-35 fired 2 x Kh-31 anti radar missiles at a Patriot radar that was "lighting up" Su-34s in the Kursk area....the result is not known apart from the radar stopped…

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 8, 2024

Afternoon Ukraine update!
The Ukrainian Hail-Mary offensive into Kursk is still dominating the headlines - I've attached a Sofa General Staff* map showing the current situation. Last night the Ukrainians reportedly advanced somewhat to the west of their initial stab through… pic.twitter.com/GVUJvxHYQJ

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 8, 2024

Concluding bit:

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Why did the AFU command go with this desperate gamble? After all, these were their reserves. Russian troops in the Donbass seem to have gotten a "go order" today and made significant gains (particularly in the ever-growing Ocheretino Salient) with seemingly little effort, likely aware the Ukrainian reserve pool is bottoming out. Well, it's simple - as I explained at length earlier, the status quo of the war favors Russia. If things continued, the AFU would gradually be strangled to death in the Donbass and the war would end on Putin's terms. They needed to change the game and an "off-axis" attack offered the chance to achieve shocking success and bring Putin to the table on Zelensky's terms... if things worked out.

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Pretty crazy strategy/plan, imho. Meanwhile, Zelensky the green openly talks about a referendum to cede the lost lands officially, so he can just concede to the 'will of the people.' Maybe, just maybe…he should also consider holding at least a Venezuelan style election. I don't know why there is some notion that a referendum would be acceptable but an election just too much amidst the war.

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did I read it wrong the guy on that twiiter post pretty much said UKE offensive is a failure?

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Yes.

nortex97 said:

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You've sure picked up your posting since the end of July. What is your precise question? The desperation was not the folks in/around Kursk but the other, real battle front.

I guess it depends, as far as the Kursk offensive, what the goal was? Was it to generate positive press? Then it's a great success. Was it to generate meaningful battlefield gains/shifts from the Russians? Then no, not a success. Losing several of their best remaining brigades (including personnel and gear like Strykers etc) in a feint into Russia would be considered a win by the Russians I would guess. HTH.

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Any evidence this has occurred?

See the Russian MoD statement of Ukrainian losses. Not the full 3-4 brigades yet, but now they are altogether exposed to various direct/indirect fires. How can they protect themselves in that salient? Any notional element of surprise is gone, if it existed. Even some Ukrainians have called out the folly per simplicius' sitrep 2 days ago:

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a very difficult situation and risk running out of resources! - Butusov on the dangerous offensive in the Kursk region
Ukrainian propagandist - editor-in-chief of "Censor.net" Yu. Butusov doubts the advisability of an offensive on the Kursk region in the context of the difficult situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in other parts of the front.
"I don't have all the information, but if we have started to attack somewhere, then we should hope that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters has taken the necessary measures to strengthen the defense of Mirnograd, Chasy Yar, Toretsk and New York, important cities where fighting is currently taking place, with reserves. This means that ammunition is being concentrated there in the near future, reliable lines are being built, the use of drones and electronic warfare is being improved," Butusov writes, hinting that none of this has been done.
After all, without organizing a permanent defense in the strategic directions of the offensive of the RF Armed Forces and without destroying the combat capability of strike groups, "there is a risk of exhausting our reserves and then not having anything to counter new attacks with."
"As it happened in 2023, when our reserves were exhausted, which led to the loss of Avdiivka," he writes.

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Again, I know 'success' can be defined differently, yet I think this is an unforced error for/by the Ukrainians, myself. It may actually be 4 brigades, and these have been/are considered their 'elite' ones by all I have read, but there is a lot of skepticism about 'Kharkiv 2.0.'

23/ There is no way yet to make this assessment, however. As with all war, there is an abundance of uncertainty at the early stage of this Ukrainian offensive. Not only are we unsure about just how far the Ukrainians have penetrated, but we are also unsure of the strategic &…

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 8, 2024

But I admit to enjoying playing devil's advocate, and they are apparently 20 or 30 km from the Kursk NPP (nuke plant) so that could provide some 'fire works.'

Yes, because the Russians have so demonstrated the ability to be completely brilliant during this entire 3-day operation.

Quote:

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Pardon me if I don't believe the Russian MoD. They're known for issuing false propaganda.

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But you believe the Uke's!!!!!

OPAG said:

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Quote:

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Pardon me if I don't believe the Russian MoD. They're known for issuing false propaganda.

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But you believe the Uke's!!!!!

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Let's just say, I know things that show the Russian MoD is incorrect.

I can't tell you how I know this, though.

Coming up on 3-years of this war with no end in sight.

I don't think it's as far off as it seems at first glance.

Russian troops have begun clearing the breakthrough zone and eliminating AFU DRGs. This task is entrusted primarily to special forces units. pic.twitter.com/0JlfOwzq6i

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) August 8, 2024

Sitrep: last-gasp Ardenne offensive?

Quote:

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In short: it's a text book assault, with nothing bad that can be said about it. Ukraine chose a region that was a soft underbelly and accumulated a force disparity against a bunch of nearly defenseless Russian border guards and conscripts. However, as soon as Ukrainian forces began incurring, they were hit mercilessly from Russia's fire-strike-complex.

What's remarkable is that besides the first border checkpoint capture of Russian troops, Ukrainian units have posted nearly no other Russian losses whatsoever. Russians on the other hand have now posted a verifiable dozens of destroyed armored vehicles of all types.

Yesterday, Russian MOD claimed over 600 manpower losses for the AFU already. Even if we assume this number is exaggerated, the MOD's vehicular losses was something in the 60-80 region, which is mostly in line with verified losses. So, if they didn't lie about the vehicle hits, why would they lie about the manpower number?

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Quote:

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If this is really the case, then that means this may be Ukraine's final big hurrah offensive, the one they had been saving up for a long time as their last needle-moving attempt to affect "coming negotiations". If these brigades are recklessly thrown away in the same way that the 10th and 11th Corps were done during the Zaporozhye '23 offensive, then the fat lady may sing for the AFU as a whole, as there will be no reserves left, particularly to contain Russia's coming breakthroughs in the Donbass direction.

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This is key:
"Rather than withdrawing troops from the front in the Donbass or Kharkov to deal with the threat, the Russians have sent in untasked troops from their general reserves to deal with the incursion." If their aim was to draw away from the Donbass, it has failed.

— The Rabbit of Caerbannog (@NeutronLiam) August 9, 2024

In short, the Kursk offensive was well coordinated with EW, drones, and a large task force of relatively elite forces/units, yet the first 20 km etc. were not Russian reserves but border guards, the main Russian reserves north being placed outside of MLRS/ATACM etc. range. I expect more rapid movement of the Russians forward in the Donbas/Donetsk areas etc. this year and elimination of this pocket, because the Ukrainians now have nothing left to provide for their desperate front line units by way of reserves/fresh troops. And, critically, the Russians didn't have to transfer any significant forces from the east/south to put down this incursion.

Waiting for war reporter footage of the remote control guy:

Quote:

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Let's just say, I know things that show the Russian MoD is incorrect.

I can't tell you how I know this, though.

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And I can say with even more confidence that the UKE MoD is incorrect.

And I can tell you how I know this, through contact I have in the theater. LOL

Small Zelensky oopsie
"They attacked civilians"
*posts pictures of camo military vehicles*

Костянтинівка, Донецька область. Удар російських терористів по звичайному супермаркету та пошті. Люди під завалами. Триває рятувальна операція, і буде зроблено все, щоб врятувати людей.

Станом на цей час відомо про чотирьох загиблих. Мої співчуття рідним та близьким. Щонайменше… pic.twitter.com/V9mgLvfEwd

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦Legitimny:

Our source reports that the Kremlin is once again working on a plan to destroy the remains of Ukraine's energy infrastructure closer to autumn.
This will be the answer for Zelensky’s Kursk adventure.
Therefore, the people of Ukraine will know who to thank in…

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 9, 2024

Not surprised at all. Downtown Kiev has been left alone quite deliberately. I would expect the remaining power transmission/generation infrastructure to be hit/decimated, in quick order now.

This will be an interesting evening/overnight period.

Updated map showing further Russian advances west of New York and on the Pokrovsk front.https://t.co/Uru5BDVHkVhttps://t.co/UsF47OaCi8 https://t.co/N5ecPds3ao pic.twitter.com/wmhzZnX7SD

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 9, 2024

Ukrainian Black Sea attacks halted. As well, Nuland-style coup warned of in Serbia.

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Your Russian friend isn't telling you the truth.

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Ah that would be wrong! LOL

OPAG said:

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Quote:

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Your Russian friend isn't telling you the truth.

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Ah that would be wrong! LOL

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I completely believe you.

Quote:

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I completely believe you.

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And why does what you believe matter at all? As I said, it really doesn't matter what you believe or don't believe. it has zero impact on the truth.

OPAG said:

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Quote:

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I completely believe you.

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And why does what you believe matter at all? As I said, it really doesn't matter what you believe or don't believe. it has zero impact on the truth.

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Then why do you keep responding to me?

I have my information.

It says the Russian MoD has been lying.

nortex97 said:

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦Legitimny:

Our source reports that the Kremlin is once again working on a plan to destroy the remains of Ukraine's energy infrastructure closer to autumn.
This will be the answer for Zelensky’s Kursk adventure.
Therefore, the people of Ukraine will know who to thank in…

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 9, 2024

Not surprised at all. Downtown Kiev has been left alone quite deliberately. I would expect the remaining power transmission/generation infrastructure to be hit/decimated, in quick order now.

This will be an interesting evening/overnight period.

Updated map showing further Russian advances west of New York and on the Pokrovsk front.https://t.co/Uru5BDVHkVhttps://t.co/UsF47OaCi8 https://t.co/N5ecPds3ao pic.twitter.com/wmhzZnX7SD

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 9, 2024

Ukrainian Black Sea attacks halted. As well, Nuland-style coup warned of in Serbia.

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The people of Ukraine can and will continue to thank Putin for everything they've had to endure as a result of his invasion since every part of this is 100% his responsibility. No matter what his social media mouthpieces claim.

Of course, thanks to Ukraine's retaliation, his own people now have something to blame him for too.

Stating your opinion like it's fact wont make it true.

It is your opinion that no one else has any culpability here, plenty of rational people disagree.

What effort has been made to negotiate an end of this war over the past 2.75 years?

There were meetings in Belarus

There were meetings in Turkey.

Mexico submitted a peace plan to the UN.

Elon Musk proposed his own plan on Twitter.

There was a peace summit at the UN.

Brazil proposes a plan.

Indonesia proposes a plan.

Saudi Arabia hosted talks.

Hungary and Orban trying to negotiate an end.

China had its own plan.

All global resources have been thrown at this problem and have failed. Now the war in Ukraine coming up on it's third year with no end in sight.

The Russians don't want peace. So they're stalling and/or making unrealistic demands.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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What effort has been made to negotiate an end of this war over the past 2.75 years?

There were meetings in Belarus

There were meetings in Turkey.

Mexico submitted a peace plan to the UN.

Elon Musk proposed his own plan on Twitter.

There was a peace summit at the UN.

Brazil proposes a plan.

Indonesia proposes a plan.

Saudi Arabia hosted talks.

Hungary and Orban trying to negotiate an end.

China had its own plan.

All global resources have been thrown at this problem and have failed. Now the war in Ukraine coming up on it's third year with no end in sight.

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Putin won't leave until he's forced to leave or he thinks he's got all he can get FOR NOW. The only way to stop what happens AFTER NOW is for Ukraine to join NATO.

There will be no serious negotiations until Putin's ball are in a vice.

Putin's view is that he's taking a stand against the new world-order. So thats ultimately what it boils down to, Imo.

If this conflict is to be ended by negotiation it would've been done already.

We may see this thing play out to the end. No off-ramp in sight.

Sounds like the Russians continue to advance around New York and the Ardenne Kursk offensive has stabilized, notably the Russians retook Sudzha. Ukrainian navy loses a couple boats.



There is, per above discussion/posts, speculation that this means Putin will have to push through to total surrender.

With the front generally stabilized in Kursk I'll be returning to my usual posting schedule and content.

I think the "big picture" upshot of the last week is that negotiations have been permanently foreclosed. The war will continue until the unconditional surrender of Ukraine.

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) August 10, 2024

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicles of the special military operation
for August 9, 2024

Over the past day, Russian forces attacked enemy targets with drones in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Kirovohrad Regions.

Ukrainian formations carried out a raid on Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as… pic.twitter.com/KEJPtvCZpq

— Rybar Force (@rybar_force) August 10, 2024

There won't be negotiations because Zelensky the wonderful mad man is simply delusional:

Quote:

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Therefore, Zelensky is confident that time is playing on the side of Ukraine in the war - as Orban wrote in a letter to EU leaders after meeting with the Ukrainian president. A source in diplomatic circles informed Strana about the existence of such a letter.

"As for the outcome of the war, the President of Ukraine is confident that the Russian armed forces will be forced to resort to general mobilization in the middle of next year, which will lead to internal destabilization. He believes that the Ukrainian forces are stable, prepared and able to maintain combat effectiveness even in the long term, if Western arms supplies continue. He believes that time is on the side of Ukraine, not on the side of Russia," the letter says.

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Yeah, Russia will depose Putin and then a surrender caucus will somehow take over in Moscow. Great plan there, Z, while stripping your forces at the main front of even more reserves/ammo/fighting capacity. Yermak, Zelensky's brain, currently sees no point at all in direct negotiations with Russia. He wants to convince regime supporters that Ukraine can win:

Quote:

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"We are working today both with people from the team of candidate Donald Trump, and even before the nomination with Vice President Kamala Harris, who is already a candidate from the Democratic Party. It is very important for us that both headquarters, both candidates and those around them clearly understand what is happening in Ukraine, that they clearly understand the current stage of the war and our strategy. I believe it is very important that both candidates have a plan for Ukraine's victory," he said.

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We will see how long the bridges across the Dnieper remain up.

Gonna post this link as it is an accurate, hilarious, imho, if highly profane (caution, if one is a sensitive person prone to being offended) summation of the situation in/around Ukraine/Russia right now. Ukrainian recruiters trying to kidnap a retired American NCO, and failing made me laugh too.

Concluding tweet:

⚡️🇩🇪🇺🇦German Colonel Laments: Ukrainian Attack Kursk Is Pointless.

Ukraine will not achieve strategic success by attacking Kursk Region. It is already clear that this operation will not even have operational significance.

This was stated on air by Bundeswehr Colonel on the Die… pic.twitter.com/Ka2H8wWgU7

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) August 9, 2024

Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces from the 116th Mechanized Brigade captured an older Russian T-62M in relatively good condition. pic.twitter.com/wm5yXexfEa

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 10, 2024

Supposedly a T-62 captured in Kursk. Of note, if true, is that there's an airborne unit insignia painted on it, meaning even Russia's elite units are now equipped with sixty year old relics.

Or maybe it's just for funsies like Walz and his SF hat. Either way, it's telling that Russia is countering an invasion with this crap, not just using it in meat assaults in Ukraine.

A lot of this gets into silly comparisons, imho, but most of the Ukrainian tank corps such as it is remains, are upgraded T-64's, so not a big deal, even if true. The main issue with the -62 in a territorial defense posture is just that it has a smaller cannon and requires a larger crew (no auto-loader).

The Ukrainians have been doing their very best to take pictures of prisoners/gear they come upon in Russia, because this is primarily a PR offensive.

I am listening to this one right now, which is very relevant as our forever wars, including the proxy one against Russia, are driven by interests antithetical to Americans, and signed off on in DC by the swamp/blob anonymously.

🇺🇸NEW VIDEO: Who Really Controls US Foreign Policy?

On YouTube: https://t.co/6vADqoGyNI

▪️US foreign and domestic policy is developed with think tanks funded by the most powerful corporate-financier interests across the West;

▪️Policy papers published by these think tanks are…

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) August 8, 2024

Well, it increasingly looks like that Ukrainian attack mostly failed. Within 72hrs, pace of advance has radically slow down as well as arrival of new reinforcement. Very likely Russian bombardment of Sumy area had significant effect. Any advance now would require major effort.

— OrkishAmerican 🇺🇸 (@OrkishAmerican) August 10, 2024

The backbone of Ukraine's tank force was T-64's to start the war. T-62's were not in service at all with Russia when they invaded Ukraine. Only now is their much stronger military equipped with relics pulled from a field in Siberia. Nice attempt at a hand wave though.

GAC06 said:

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The backbone of Ukraine's tank force was T-64's to start the war. T-62's were not in service at all with Russia when they invaded Ukraine. Only now is their much stronger military equipped with relics pulled from a field in Siberia. Nice attempt at a hand wave though.

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I'm certain the idea of a stronger Russia is based on a much more in depth analysis than the age of the tanks used. Your post is not convincing.