Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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PlaneCrashGuy
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9:17a, 4/8/24
AG
Very early on I predicted Russia would grow and Ukraine would shrink. For all of Russia's supposed losses and incompetence, none of the leaders in the west can articulate why that wont prove to be true. Try to end it before it gets worse seems obvious/self evident but it's an election year.
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Artorias
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 11:02a, 4/8/24
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:
Very early on I predicted Russia would grow and Ukraine would shrink. For all of Russia's supposed losses and incompetence, none of the leaders in the west can articulate why that wont prove to be true. Try to end it before it gets worse seems obvious/self evident but it's an election year.
This has been obvious to any rational observer since the war started. The only way Ukraine completely expels Russia is with heavy addition of forces from NATO/US, which is simply not worth the cost.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to Artorias • 12:14p, 4/8/24
AG
Artorias said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
Very early on I predicted Russia would grow and Ukraine would shrink. For all of Russia's supposed losses and incompetence, none of the leaders in the west can articulate why that wont prove to be true. Try to end it before it gets worse seems obvious/self evident but it's an election year.
This has been obvious to any rational observer since the war started. The only way Ukraine completely expels Russia is with heavy addition of forces from NATO/US, which is simply not worth the cost.


You certainly will not hear any disagreement from me. The shame of it all is in the irony:

The folks screaming the loudest about Russian propaganda are the ones who are completely bought in to the narrative put out by American propaganda outlets like CNN, MSNBC, etc.
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YouBet
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 1:06p, 4/8/24
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:
Very early on I predicted Russia would grow and Ukraine would shrink. For all of Russia's supposed losses and incompetence, none of the leaders in the west can articulate why that wont prove to be true. Try to end it before it gets worse seems obvious/self evident but it's an election year.


I'm not really seeing much of anyone even trying to prove it anymore. It's more of a "we won't let you down" from Biden and Co while everyone else has been saying for some time that unless Ukraine gets more resources from us they are in danger of getting rolled.

Feels like the Eastern Europeans have started looking inward to figure out how not to be next. Granted I do not think there is any danger to nato countries and never has been. Putin is simply reestablishing a new buffer zone using non-Nato countries within his sphere now that we are all up in his jock.
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lb3
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In reply to YouBet • 1:12p, 4/8/24
AG
If Poland sees that a rout is on and Kiev's collapse is imminent, I would expect the Pols, and possibly even the French, to jump in to secure Lviv and western Ukraine in order to prevent a mass of refugees flooding across the border.
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nortex97
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In reply to lb3 • 1:35p, 4/8/24
AG
lb3 said:
If Poland sees that a rout is on and Kiev's collapse is imminent, I would expect the Pols, and possibly even the French, to jump in to secure Lviv and western Ukraine in order to prevent a mass of refugees flooding across the border.
Except…the Poles aren't real worried about it. And the French? LOL. Macron is just worried about the EC parliament vote. I take Texas Tech trash talk more seriously.
Quote:
Poland is unlikely to be attacked by Russia in the near future, President Andrzej Duda has said in an interview with a national newspaper published on Monday. His comments come after several Polish officials claimed the country is facing an imminent threat from Moscow.

Asked to comment on the possibility of a Russian assault on Poland within the next few years, Duda told the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna that it is "impossible to say that there is no threat at all," claiming that Moscow aims to bring the Baltic states and countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic into its sphere of influence.

At the same time, the Polish president suggested that the threat of an actual Russian offensive was "unrealistic," and that if Warsaw "responds appropriately today and creates the potential to resist aggression,"the country would not be attacked.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed in an interview last month that Europe has entered a "pre-war era,"and that the possibility of an all-out war could no longer be ruled out. A number of other Western politicians have similarly suggested in recent months that Russia is planning to attack NATO.
And again, I've been told over and over that the Russians haven't been able in 2 years to take much land, so I still don't understand why there is such a fear they will suddenly be able to launch out into Poland/Hungary etc, let alone want to, after taking the rump regime in Kiev, supposedly. And that's setting aside the entire logical fallacy of "Ukraine needs to join Nato for safety and security, because then Putin will never attack it." But he's gonna take Poland next.
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BadMoonRisin
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1:55p, 4/8/24
AG
idk
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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3:38p, 4/8/24
Ukraine losing and it's YOUR FAULT.
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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4:07p, 4/8/24
But, on the other hand.

the US did commit to defend Ukraine if it turned over it's nuclear weapons.

And the US State Dept convinced Ukraine not to retaliate or press the issue over Crimea in 2014.

So Ukraine is our crazy ex and we stuck with her now or she'll bust up in the house drunk during thanksgiving dinner.
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nortex97
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 4:56p, 4/8/24
AG
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
But, on the other hand.

the US did commit to defend Ukraine if it turned over it's nuclear weapons.

And the US State Dept convinced Ukraine not to retaliate or press the issue over Crimea in 2014.

So Ukraine is our crazy ex and we stuck with her now or she'll bust up in the house drunk during thanksgiving dinner.
The answer is to just not go to the Thanksgiving dinner, as it's a charade.

And everything in 2014 was driven by the State/CIA anyway, including the entirety of the 'maiden' revolution. Don't take my word for it, take "**** the EU" Victoria Nuland.

But we now care about our European allies with only the purest of intents, and should trust Blinken/Biden et al.

Umm…..no. There are so many distractions/narrative false directions/lies in propaganda media it is impossible to keep track of them all. The CIA is a greater threat to peace, democracy and stability in the world than anything an old KGB guy running a third rate economy (though growing on steroids) could pose, it isn't even funny.







And yes, before anyone in my fan club asks, furtherance of government surveillance/suppression of speech such that the narrative is supported is absolutely a key objective of the proxy war's sponsors.
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YouBet
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:01p, 4/8/24
AG
Always adding Orwellian tactics to expand the police state against US citizens instead of actually addressing the obvious.
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nortex97
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6:06a, 4/9/24
AG






Interesting development:



On lies and propaganda;





The war is really draining Russia's economy;



And the much maligned Black Sea fleet;



An analyses of the China-American front in the forever proxy war, as Yellen went to beg them to stop being mean.

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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:52a, 4/9/24
AG
I heard a podcaster say recently: "whoever wins will push and push and push, then something will snap and they'll take a bunch of land".

I suspect both sides are aware of that risk and are trying to avoid a type of collapse.
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:22a, 4/9/24
AG
Taking a bunch of land is a challenge for both sides with the FPV drones and mining involved. I don't think a rapid advance is likely.
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YouBet
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11:44a, 4/9/24
AG
I was not aware that David Cameron was the SecState for the UK. Huh.
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 2:14p, 4/9/24
AG
Yeah, kinda amazing. NATO: It's time to cull the snake:

Quote:
The only good thing I have to say about David Cameron's political resurrection is that he's no Winston Churchill.

I don't know about you, but I get tired of writing and saying that NATO hasn't been fit for purpose since the end of the Cold War. If that's the case then why did they just get shiny new headquarters, new members, and every Western leader screaming for them to have more money?

We all know why. And that's the fundamental problem.

NATO is the entangling alliance that the Founders warned us about back in the 18th century. And it's high time we crafted a way out of the trap that membership in it represents. As a deterrent against future aggression NATO can be seen as a necessary thing. But, like all organizations facing the end of its lifespan, it had to find new ways to retain its relevance after we bled out the USSR with a deft combination of defense spending and $8 per barrel oil.

This is also why the Cold War never really ended. It just shed its skin and NATO along with it. The problem with most of the analysis about the current conflict is that we're all stuck (including myself at times) within the nation-state framework.

The US needs this. The UK needs that. Russia needs something else.

But that framework is inadequate to describe the everything that's going on unless you map the geographic unit to the dominant globalist faction within each region of the West. And they each have very different agendas and goals with respect to Ukraine and Russia.
I wrote about that last week, quoting this month's GGnG Newsletter. It bears repeating this week:
Quote:
Ukraine became the battleground physically for this. To the EU, the US and the UK, through their influence in Poland and the Baltics, were used to foment this war. Bankrupting them {and Russia} through war forces them back to being subjugated sources of raw materials while exporting EU laws and rules to those places which have the privilege (from their perspective) of doing business with them.

From all three players' perspectives if Ukraine beat Russia, then they win. Putin is eventually deposed, Russia is humiliated, and the long-desired breakup of their land-based empire would commence. Europe gets their Great Reset. The UK gets to maintain control over the maritime empire, reclaiming NATO control over the Black Sea, and forcing the Arab oil producers back in line. The US gets to leverage a fallen Russia to weaken China and stop the further integration of the BRICS into a competitor.

In short, the world would go back to the 1990's when guys like Bill Browder were running around buying up everything and the Russian oligarchs Putin beat would be restored to power. ***uyama would finally be right.

But, as I said, the real goal of this war wasn't just getting Russia, they had to maneuver the US into a terminal state as well, through the costs of fighting a war we weren't capable of sustaining. And that was the bridge too far for US interests not beholden to the ghost of Trotsky and the tears of Bill Kristol.
NATO cannot and should not survive these stresses if its intended victims, Russia/China/Iran, fight even remotely competently.

And they are. They all understand that this is a race against a political and economic clock in the West that is quickly counting down to zero. All Russia has to do is keep grinding out territorial gains in Ukraine, Iran to not over-react to Israel's provocations, and China to ignore the yapping over tariffs and Taiwan.
And all the Americans who are tired of this have to do is keep the money spigot to NATO and Ukraine closed off as much as is politically possible.

So, this is why we're seeing the full court press from both the UK and EU to get the US re-focused on the task at hand in Ukraine. It's why everyone on Capitol Hill hates Speaker Mike Johnson and why the knives are out from all sides, including his own party.

Yeah, I'm lookin' at you Marjorie Taylor Greene….

Because the US is clearly looking for a way to extricate itself from this mess, even if all the puff adders on K Street want to do is pivot towards China.

The cost/benefit analysis for the US, especially in an election year, just doesn't add up. And there is zero real leverage Europe can apply to the US other than through their bought and paid-for politicos in D.C. for more money.

The heart simply isn't willing anymore. Why? For all the reasons I've been talking about for six years here, the memories of WWII are fading. The generations of Americans imprinted with the post-WWII Pax Americana lie are dying off (Boomers) or no longer care, if they ever did (Gen X).

The Millennials and 'Zoomers' aren't invested in this mythology. They know their heads are on the chopping block.

They can see that none of this is in their best interests. The US, as a nation at war with itself, will try one last time this fall to vote its way out of Europe before it gets ugly here. Listen again to Cameron's harangue carefully. There is an implicit threat not just in the language but the staging of it.

Make no mistake, folks. These people are the enemy of all that's good and decent in the world. We have plenty of snakes here in the US doing their bidding, selling us the old lies repackaged as new ones, and acting outside the bounds of the law. There's plenty of blame to spread around here.

But what's becoming obvious is that the era of extra-curricular US warfare is over. A lot of people refuse to look at the cover of the TPS report for fear of 'getting the memo.'
Voxday adds:

Quote:
As we've seen in the growing number and intensity of provocations, Clown World is desperate to escalate to direct conflict because it is being systematically defeated by the unrestricted warfare that its opponents are patiently waging against it. Just as Russia is not responding to the terrorist attacks on its civilian population and Iran is not responding to the Israeli attacks on its consulate, China is not going to take the bait on Taiwan.

They have no need to take the risk of engaging in military operations even though they have sound reason to assume that they could comprehensively defeat NATO and the remnants of SEATO; all war involves some degree of risk and there simply isn't any need to accept any risk when time is quite clearly working in their favor.

Once Ukraine collapses, Clown World will be forced to stop its provocations and focus on retaining as many of its former satrapies and captive allies as it can. And it's at that point that I expect the diplomatic efforts on the part of the BRICSIA nations to begin in earnest, and we'll start seeing nations like Hungary, Serbia, Vietnam, and perhaps even Japan and Mexico turning against their current masters.


Follow the money, as they say…

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Stat Monitor Repairman
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9:06p, 4/9/24



Breaking:

Zelensky says he knows US politics better than you or me.

"The Ukrainian leader expressed concern that irrational thinking and delusional fantasies of peacemaking might lead other Western allies into making damaging political and diplomatic mistakes."

Ok, thank you. Drive through.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 9:15p, 4/9/24
AG
Stat Monitor Repairman said:



"The Ukrainian leader expressed concern that irrational thinking and delusional fantasies of peacemaking might lead other Western allies into making damaging political and diplomatic mistakes."
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nortex97
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 6:06a, 4/10/24
AG
LOL, I wonder what his username is. In all seriousness, at this point most republicans don't want to send him another dime, and with his goal to spike oil and gas prices by attacking Russian infrastructure using whatever he is given (a global commodity), I think he's more and more demonstrating to be an enemy to the American people who have suffered enough inflation over his nato obsession and power hunger to control the Donbas/crimea. Which is to say nothing of the damage he did to Trump by not standing up to put down the insane impeachment crap the first time.



Swamp proxy Cameron apparently failed;



As the forever war careens forward with Iran:



Wartime commander in chief is busy preventing a war with…Vietnam.





I think I posted this yesterday on the PPP world bank analyses, regarding Russia's economy/sanctions, but I suppose it was too much truth for many. Sanctions and the proxy war have strengthened the Russian economy and military alike:









Forever war, comrades!
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YouBet
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 1:07p, 4/10/24
AG
That commentary from Tom Luongo is spot on. Even if you believe in supporting Ukraine you should be able to agree that NATO is like any other bureaucratic organization that has outlived its purpose. No bureaucracy will willingly wind itself down because they essentially become living organisms and will fight to the death to maintain their existence.
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nortex97
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In reply to YouBet • 4:18a, 4/11/24
AG
100 percent.



I saw a claim of something on the order of 80 or 90 missiles lobbed at Ukraine overnight.





The provoked Biden proxy war must continue.



LOL:



They're out of bodies:





Now things are going so poorly they are fully lashing out not just at Republicans, but Xiden, who of course has prioritized the ongoing invasion of America over Kiev's demands:


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nortex97
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5:10a, 4/11/24
AG
A more detailed summary of the overnight;







Was Burisma, Cofer Black, Crackhead Hunter, and a Latvian Bank part of a CIA terrorist operation?



On the Moldova tap dancing; a Nato plan B?

Quote:
Currently, the pro-EU camp is in power. It has outlawed pro-Russian opposition parties and organizations and jailed some of their leaders. In addition, the ruling party has closed 13 TV and media outlets on the grounds they were connected to Russia. Until mid-March, the pro-EU party did not allow opposition candidates to run for local or national elections.

The Germans are supplying police to reinforce the border with Ukraine. Germany joined an EU-sponsored project to "ensure the security" of Moldova.

The police stop smuggling, but according to reports, critics say the efforts being reinforced are mainly concerned with stopping Ukrainians from escaping conscription and returning them to Ukraine, where they face either jail terms or being thrown onto the front lines fighting Russia.

Strategic significance

Moldova on its own is not of any strategic importance. However, it could be a staging area and jumping-off point for a strategy aimed at Ukraine's southern city of Odesa and, perhaps, Russia-annexed Crimea.

What seems to be brewing in Europe is some sort of Plan B in essence, what to do if the Ukrainian army collapses. European specialists and some officials are increasingly opining that the days of Ukraine as an independent entity may be reaching an end.

Russian officials are feeding into the dialogue by saying they want a huge buffer zone in any Ukraine settlement, a cordon sanitaire to prevent NATO from threatening Russian territory and vital interests.
Assuming that the dire war predictions are realized, a future Ukraine could consist of an annexed Russian area, a pro-Russian regime in Kiev, a buffer zone and western Ukraine taken over by Poland, potentially cut up with some of its neighbors


NATO, however, would want to have a counterweight to a Russian victory. That could mean, in addition to the Ukrainian city of Lviv returning to Poland, an attempt to protect Odesa and perhaps threaten Crimea, which the Russians regard as vital territory for their security and its historical importance.

Building up Moldova as a staging area, therefore, looks like an emerging potential strategy, the beginning of a Plan B. However, there are problems in using Moldova as a staging area.

Its politics are very unsettled, and if the Russians really step up their efforts in that country, the pro-EU faction may face a cloudy future. That would potentially foreclose Moldova as an EU staging ground.
Alternatively, the EU via Romania and others may send in troops to secure the pro-EU regime now in power, which could lead to an internal and bloody conflict.
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nortex97
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6:07p, 4/11/24
AG
woah, evening update is a bit dramatic. First, the Ukrainian decisions to strike at Russian infrastructure…were probably a mistake. Previously, Russia almost always only attacked distribution not power generation facilities, I believe:



Second;



Wow:







Will be interesting to see if that information is allowed to proliferate.
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YouBet
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:26p, 4/11/24
AG
None of that is surprising at all considering we have official government disinformation groups coordinating with big tech and academia to ban speech here in the US. And we have the most guaranteed freedoms on the planet.

Now have us run those same practices in foreign countries. Nothing will be trustworthy soon, if not already.
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fullback44
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:10p, 4/11/24
AG
nortex97 said:
lb3 said:
If Poland sees that a rout is on and Kiev's collapse is imminent, I would expect the Pols, and possibly even the French, to jump in to secure Lviv and western Ukraine in order to prevent a mass of refugees flooding across the border.
Except…the Poles aren't real worried about it. And the French? LOL. Macron is just worried about the EC parliament vote. I take Texas Tech trash talk more seriously.
Quote:
Poland is unlikely to be attacked by Russia in the near future, President Andrzej Duda has said in an interview with a national newspaper published on Monday. His comments come after several Polish officials claimed the country is facing an imminent threat from Moscow.

Asked to comment on the possibility of a Russian assault on Poland within the next few years, Duda told the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna that it is "impossible to say that there is no threat at all," claiming that Moscow aims to bring the Baltic states and countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic into its sphere of influence.

At the same time, the Polish president suggested that the threat of an actual Russian offensive was "unrealistic," and that if Warsaw "responds appropriately today and creates the potential to resist aggression,"the country would not be attacked.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed in an interview last month that Europe has entered a "pre-war era,"and that the possibility of an all-out war could no longer be ruled out. A number of other Western politicians have similarly suggested in recent months that Russia is planning to attack NATO.
And again, I've been told over and over that the Russians haven't been able in 2 years to take much land, so I still don't understand why there is such a fear they will suddenly be able to launch out into Poland/Hungary etc, let alone want to, after taking the rump regime in Kiev, supposedly. And that's setting aside the entire logical fallacy of "Ukraine needs to join Nato for safety and security, because then Putin will never attack it." But he's gonna take Poland next.


I agree, Russia is barely moving the needle, if you were to bring in literally 1000's of NATA jets and high powered long range missiles and 2000 lb JDAMs to be used by these literally 1000s of jets I think Russia would have real problems..
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General Jack D. Ripper
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In reply to fullback44 • 9:34p, 4/11/24
Well, boohoo, they're not gonna get them. Tough ***** I'm sick of sending my tax dollars to the corrupt comedian.

Not my problem.
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GAC06
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In reply to General Jack D. Ripper • 9:53p, 4/11/24
AG
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Well, boohoo, they're not gonna get them. Tough ***** I'm sick of sending my tax dollars to the corrupt comedian.

Not my problem.


How many of your tax dollars do you think you've sent?
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fullback44
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In reply to General Jack D. Ripper • 10:06p, 4/11/24
AG
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Well, boohoo, they're not gonna get them. Tough ***** I'm sick of sending my tax dollars to the corrupt comedian.

Not my problem.


I'm not taking either side not saying it's good or bad, I'm just telling people what I think would happen if they attack a NATO country.. NATA would bring the REAL heat .. there is no doubt
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to fullback44 • 10:16p, 4/11/24
AG
fullback44 said:
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Well, boohoo, they're not gonna get them. Tough ***** I'm sick of sending my tax dollars to the corrupt comedian.

Not my problem.


I'm not taking either side not saying it's good or bad, I'm just telling people what I think would happen if they attack a NATO country.. NATA would bring the REAL heat .. there is no doubt


You're absolutely correct about that.

I think Nortext was just pointing out how the narrative has kind of splintered in this instance. "No ability to mount an offensive" but also "if we don't stop them in Ukraine they'll conquer all of europe"
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GAC06
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:20p, 4/11/24
AG
Kind of like the line that Russia is no threat, was no threat, was powerful, is now more powerful than ever? That kind of nonsense?
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:28p, 4/11/24
AG
GAC06 said:
Kind of like the line that Russia is no threat, was no threat, was powerful, is now more powerful than ever? That kind of nonsense?


Who are you even quoting?
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GAC06
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 10:41p, 4/11/24
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:
GAC06 said:
Kind of like the line that Russia is no threat, was no threat, was powerful, is now more powerful than ever? That kind of nonsense?


Who are you even quoting?


I could tell you but it's too nuanced for you to understand
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samurai_science
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In reply to GAC06 • 11:45p, 4/11/24
GAC06 said:
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Well, boohoo, they're not gonna get them. Tough ***** I'm sick of sending my tax dollars to the corrupt comedian.

Not my problem.


How many of your tax dollars do you think you've sent?
1 too many
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nortex97
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In reply to samurai_science • 3:52a, 4/12/24
AG
LOL, Samantha Power:











I'd be fine with the US exiting Nato this morning.

Interesting:
Quote:
Swiss activists backed by the country's top political party have filed a petition with enough signatures to trigger a referendum that could enshrine Bern's neutrality in the constitution and potentially restore the country's economic ties with Moscow.

The so-called "Neutrality Initiative" signed by over 130,000 residents was officially filed on Thursday, according to Swissinfo. The proposal would define Switzerland's neutrality as "perpetual and armed," and explicitly prohibit the country from joining "any military or defense alliance," unless directly attacked.

The proposed constitutional amendment would also prevent the government from imposing or joining any form of "non-military coercive measures" and sanctions, unless mandated by the UN Security Council. However, Bern would still reserve obligations to prevent circumvention of sanctions imposed by other states.

Switzerland has maintained a policy of neutrality since 1815, and did not take sides in either of the two world wars. While not officially a member of any international blocs, such as the EU or NATO, Switzerland has nevertheless joined nearly all of the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, frozen billions of dollars' worth of its assets, and actively supported Kiev following the launch of Russia's offensive in Ukraine in 2022.

According to Russia's top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, the Swiss government has abandoned its neutrality by adopting a national security strategy that aims to develop European security "not with Russia, but against it."
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