Teslag said:
Why would Ukraine be gaining ground if they aren't conducting an offensive?
"Ukraine is graining ground everyday" -Teslag then
"We thought the Ukrainian counter offense was bad." -Teslag now
He's already in reverse.
Teslag said:
Why would Ukraine be gaining ground if they aren't conducting an offensive?
He's about two years late to the party on this, but if Ukrainian politicians are feeling bold enough to talk about it in public then they smell blood. https://t.co/r8bI2xBFJj
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) January 21, 2024
Nice of them to do that for a change.PlaneCrashGuy said:
Sounds like Russia is hitting military targets, not civilian ones.
It's cool that you make things up and then argue against them.PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
Why would Ukraine be gaining ground if they aren't conducting an offensive?
"Ukraine is graining ground everyday" -Teslag then
"We thought the Ukrainian counter offense was bad." -Teslag now
He's already in reverse.
Our last Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government expired in 2011. We went back in to fight ISIS in 2014 on the basis of a handshake deal and exactly nothing has been formalized since. https://t.co/9MnbtKVQ7w
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) January 21, 2024
Teslag said:
Yes, Russia is being stopped over the past year, ***losing ground every day*** and caught in a quagmire because Ukraine is getting none of our weapons and/or selling them on the black market.
If you want to find our bullets, just look in a Russian corpse.
Teslag said:
It's a valid question. Putin spent 6 months trying to fight and claw for bakmuht. And now they are still clinging to it. ***The ukes take ever more ground each day.*** The Russians just lost their best fighting force. You keep thinking they se just going to turn on a switch and really get serious. But that switch doesn't exist. It's not 1940 anymore and Russia can't just throw bodies at the problem.
Ag with kids said:It's cool that you make things up and then argue against them.PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
Why would Ukraine be gaining ground if they aren't conducting an offensive?
"Ukraine is graining ground everyday" -Teslag then
"We thought the Ukrainian counter offense was bad." -Teslag now
He's already in reverse.
If only they had a name for that concept...
PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
It's a valid question. Putin spent 6 months trying to fight and claw for bakmuht. And now they are still clinging to it. ***The ukes take ever more ground each day.*** The Russians just lost their best fighting force. You keep thinking they se just going to turn on a switch and really get serious. But that switch doesn't exist. It's not 1940 anymore and Russia can't just throw bodies at the problem.
1 more
nortex97 said:
Interesting as this war continues to conflate, and the Obama-Biden Iraqi-Afghan surrenders also dovetail into this mess.Our last Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government expired in 2011. We went back in to fight ISIS in 2014 on the basis of a handshake deal and exactly nothing has been formalized since. https://t.co/9MnbtKVQ7w
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) January 21, 2024
PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
Why would Ukraine be gaining ground if they aren't conducting an offensive?
"Ukraine is graining ground everyday" -Teslag then
"We thought the Ukrainian counter offense was bad." -Teslag now
He's already in reverse.
Oh yeah...this was back when the Russians were getting their **** pushed in, wasn't it. They did lose a lot of ground every day then, didn't they?PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
Yes, Russia is being stopped over the past year, ***losing ground every day*** and caught in a quagmire because Ukraine is getting none of our weapons and/or selling them on the black market.
If you want to find our bullets, just look in a Russian corpse.
Hey AgWithKids! Want me to find more?
Wait...nortex97 said:
Interesting as this war continues to conflate, and the Obama-Biden Iraqi-Afghan surrenders also dovetail into this mess.Our last Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government expired in 2011. We went back in to fight ISIS in 2014 on the basis of a handshake deal and exactly nothing has been formalized since. https://t.co/9MnbtKVQ7w
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) January 21, 2024
The US is in Syria and Iraq illegally. Syria never gave them permission to be there and Iraq rescinded permission years ago. The US troops are technically "illegal invaders".
— jefferson donny the first (@jeffdonn5) January 21, 2024
🇷🇺 The commander of the Il-22 Russian Aerospace Forces damaged over the Sea of Azov, died from shrapnel wounds. Russian pilot network admits to the death of the pilot of Il-22 while not a single death from any A-50 is known, which is telling. Seems like the A-50 story was a hoax.… pic.twitter.com/Z53EGZ87bk
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) January 22, 2024
We literally were an excuse to push through modernization programs when previously it was politically/economically impossible.
— Lance Legion (@LancesLegion) January 22, 2024
They are way ahead of their original 2017 projections (navy excluded however, that took a back seat).
Cited book below. https://t.co/5McsoiS8wi pic.twitter.com/6lvVdsgcrw
COMMENT OVERESTIMATING RUSSIAN SUCCESS, JAN 21 2024
— Mikael Valtersson (@MikaelValterss1) January 21, 2024
I of course don't believe that the ENTIRE Ukrainian frontline will collapse due to RuAF 4 km progress around Berestove. But if you look on distances on the Kupyansk front, 25*30 km, a 4 km advance is a significant success.… https://t.co/PjdN6bBJE9 pic.twitter.com/Vg1sFvBjNY
⚡️🇺🇦Ukrainian radios are intercepted in Avdeevka. It seems thing are...not going well. pic.twitter.com/tsEhxjT6Pm
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) January 22, 2024
⚡️Several people have now asked me to comment on the various strikes Ukraine is carrying out on Russia. Both pro-Ru people who are concerned, and pro-UA people who are 'dunking'.
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) January 22, 2024
Over the past week there has been a rash of warehouses sabotaged across Russia, drone strikes on oil…
Trump should actually refuse to ever meet with/speak to Zelensky again, lest the latter aid the Democrats in another impeachment scam over something/anything said/implied. He's an outrageous totalitarian fraud. Just cut him off the minute he's sworn in. The problem will resolve itself, though it might anyway within a year.Quote:
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky mocked former President Donald Trump's insistence that Trump would end the war on day one of his presidency.
"Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv," said Zelensky during an interview Friday with British Channel 4 News. "So if you can stop the war during 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come."
Zelensky's statements come has he continues to push U.S. Congress for additional funding of the war with Russia.
Congress has already sent at least $113 billion to Ukraine since the start of its war with Russia in February of 2022. The Biden Administration has requested another $106 billion aid package, with $61 billion of it designated specifically for Ukraine.
Quote:
The Ukrainian shelling of the Russian city of Donetsk on Sunday that killed at least 27 civilians was a "heinous act of terrorism," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. He vowed that Moscow will do everything possible to prevent such attacks from happening again.
The Ukrainian strike, which also injured 25 people, many of them seriously, hit a busy local market and shops. The Russian Foreign Ministry earlier called the attack "barbaric" and suggested it was carried out with Western support.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Peskov condemned the shelling and said the high death toll was caused by Kiev's use of "indiscriminate weapons." Russian President Vladimir Putin has been fully briefed and local authorities are taking all the necessary measures, the spokesman added.
"The Kiev regime continues to show its savage face, they strike at civilian infrastructure, at people, at the civilian population," Peskov stated.
Vitali Klitschko believes that Zelensky is turning into a dictator. The Mayor of Kyiv openly criticized the development direction that President Zelensky has chosen for Ukraine.
— Zlatti71 (@djuric_zlatko) January 21, 2024
"The current course we see now, I cannot call democratic. It smells of vertical power and… pic.twitter.com/uOBdvilzD5
Quote:
There are whispers from Kyiv that Zaluzhny will be fired and CIA favorite Kyrylo Budanov is taking over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If it's true here's why:
The real President of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, needs someone crazy enough to blow up a nuclear power plant and Budanov is her guy. She needs a pretext for NATO troops to enter Ukraine, urgently. Russia is winning the US proxy war and Nuland is running out of options.
In her deranged mind the best way to get NATO involved is to harm Europeans with a radioactive cloud from a nuclear power plant that Russia allegedly destroyed. The Propaganda media would sell the story and suppress the truth as it has done throughout the war.
If Budanov executes Nuland's dirty plan he would become the next Zelenskyy. That's her promise and his ambition.
Zaluzhny would leave a vacuum. Ukrainian soldiers are burned out. Assistance from the West has dried up, temporarily. The window for Putin to end this war on Russias terms is now. Expect a major push.
Thomas Gray Harris was a former US Marine from California. He was ̶p̶u̶r̶s̶u̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶ ̶m̶e̶d̶i̶c̶a̶l̶ ̶d̶e̶g̶r̶e̶e̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶C̶o̶l̶u̶m̶b̶i̶a̶ ̶U̶n̶i̶v̶e̶r̶s̶i̶t̶y̶ participating in a proxy war as a mercenary . He had a bright future ahead of him before russians killed him.
— To long or not to? 🫐(🎲,🧠) (@upndownsyndrome) January 22, 2024
Teslag said:PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
It's a valid question. Putin spent 6 months trying to fight and claw for bakmuht. And now they are still clinging to it. ***The ukes take ever more ground each day.*** The Russians just lost their best fighting force. You keep thinking they se just going to turn on a switch and really get serious. But that switch doesn't exist. It's not 1940 anymore and Russia can't just throw bodies at the problem.
1 more
Nothing I said turned out to be wrong or was wrong at the time
Ag with kids said:Oh yeah...this was back when the Russians were getting their **** pushed in, wasn't it. They did lose a lot of ground every day then, didn't they?PlaneCrashGuy said:Teslag said:
Yes, Russia is being stopped over the past year, ***losing ground every day*** and caught in a quagmire because Ukraine is getting none of our weapons and/or selling them on the black market.
If you want to find our bullets, just look in a Russian corpse.
Hey AgWithKids! Want me to find more?
It sucks that it's a stalemate now, like we've both said for quite awhile.
And they're not conducting an offensive right now so...not much chance they gain ground unless the Russians do what they SHOULD do and GTFO.
NoYouBet said:
Did we ever approve new funding for Ukraine because current money was done by end of December?
Yes, because the Republicans in the house are insisting we deal with our own invasion as well, instead of just prioritizing Zelensky. Democrats, of course, have litigated that Texas is forbidden to even curtail the invasion and slavery/human trafficking and are today cutting down razor wire to facilitate hundreds of thousands more this year.LMCane said:NoYouBet said:
Did we ever approve new funding for Ukraine because current money was done by end of December?
there is a "continuing resolution" being discussed which handles Ukraine and Israel defense funding and border security which the Senate has agree do but the Republicans in the House do not accept it.
Absolutely! It's high time Germany reclaimed its sovereignty and showed the EU bureaucrats the door. #DexitNow
— ⬢⬡Lammie⬡⬢ (@lammie_j) January 22, 2024
Allegedly the son of a brigadier general of the French army was killed by a strike by the Russian Armed Forces at a point of temporary deployment of foreign mercenaries in Kharkov.
— Mats Nilsson (@mazzenilsson) January 22, 2024
His partner (also killed) came from a hereditary military dynasty in France.
According to… pic.twitter.com/qzabRqfr0h
Quote:
Washington has begun creating "a colonial administration" in Ukraine consisting of local politicians who have sworn allegiance to the US, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has said.
The US government has demanded that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky "remove" dozens of high-ranking officials, whom Washington no longer trusts, from their posts under various pretexts, Sergey Naryshkin claimed on Monday.Washington wants those jobs to be filled by "Ukrainians trained in the West, who have sworn allegiance to American interests," he said in comments cited by the SVR press service.
"As part of the policy of total vassalization of Ukraine, the US has started forming what is essentially a colonial administration in that country," the spy chief stated.
According to Naryshkin, the required changes in the Ukrainian government were relayed to Zelensky during his visit to Washington in December.
Ukraine openly asks West to use its army as a proxy
[url=https://www.rt.com/russia/591011-ukraine-proxy-best-deal/][/url]
"The Americans are pushing for Ukrainian ambassador to Washington Oksana Markarova, who received her education at Indiana University Bloomington, to take the post of prime minister. The deputy head of the Finance Ministry, Alexander Kava, who studied at Harvard University, is being suggested for the job of finance minister. The current deputy head of the Economy Ministry, Taras Kachka, a graduate of Poland's National School of Public Administration (KSAP), is recommended for the post of economy minister," he said.
The latest high-profile change in the Ukrainian cabinet follows the pattern described by Naryshkin. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who replaced Zelensky's ally Aleksey Reznikov in the job last fall, used to participate in the Future Leaders Exchange program, funded by the US State Department.
🇺🇦⚔️🇺🇦 In Kharkov, a military enlistment office employee was killed - the father of a forcibly mobilized man is suspected.
— -- GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 -- (@GeromanAT) January 22, 2024
Local residents claim that the son, who was mobilized without medical examination, suffered from asthma and should not have been drafted into the Armed… pic.twitter.com/uMZBebxdCJ
I don't understand this answer. It defies reality. Did you misread something?Teslag said:Quote:
Yes, the attacks on American forces by Iran and others are related to this conflict with Russians and the broader conflict involves Iran itself.
What a load of BS.
Signed,
A poster who was on the receiving end of Iranian backed militia rockets in Iraq while Trump was president and prior to Putin's invasion.
Stay in your lane
Teslag said:
Iran has been attacking us in that region before Biden and before the Russian conflict. An attempt to try to tie them together doesn't jive with what's already been happening.
Teslag said:
So why was Iran freely and deliberately attacking American military positions and bases while Trump was president and prior to the Russian invasion?
Dude, you are completely ignoring the massive escalation with Hamas, Suez Canal, arming Russia in Ukraine, etc.Teslag said:
So why was Iran freely and deliberately attacking American military positions and bases while Trump was president and prior to the Russian invasion?
French temper tantrum at killing their mercenaries in country is funny. You sent them to fight a war, they are fair game. More:Quote:
As soon as Russian troops resumed their attacks after holiday rotations, AFU's defenses in Avdeevka have begun to seriously collapse.
Russian forces continue to do far better in urban environments where there is cover. In the open steppes of north Avdeevka, they are quite brutally repulsed with some of the worst carnage I've seen of the war thus far. But in the conurbanation of the south, they move smoothly forward. Interestingly, a video emerged yesterday of a Russian soldier speaking on just that: the differences between fighting in open fields or in urban environments. While he lists pros and cons of each, he seems to prefer urban for the easier cover. Wagner likewise found this to be true in and around Bakhmut:
Firstly, Ukrainian comms were intercepted in the south of Avdeevka around this Tsar's Hunt area. The exchanges point to heavy problems, a lot of dead and wounded amongst the AFU, as well as anger and disagreement with the command staff:
To give an idea of how rapid this sudden collapse might be, here is a map from what it was just days ago. The white circle shows the infamous highway overpass where we've seen a lot of tenacious fighting, and where Russian troops previously could not get past:
That being said, it's not fully known to what extent that new area north of the white circle is actually "captured". For the past two days, there were Ukrainian reports that 'special forces' were seen lurking in their rear lines in that suburban area. So is this merely a case of small groups of behind-the-line forces being spotted there, or have they actually fully captured it? That is not yet fully known.
However, there's potential that this could domino into a huge collapse of several at-risk cauldrons which are now forming for the AFU. Here's a more zoomed out map to illustrate:
The green circle is the "air defense base". The white lines show the active motion. In the topright area you can see Russian troops have moved along Yasinovskaya toward the west, and now along the Tsar's Hunt nearby. This has created a small cauldron in the center that can potentially be collapsed.
In the south, the entire area north of the missile defense can potentially be collapsed and taken over.
Here's why that could bring AFU close to losing Avdeevka. An even more zoomed out view:
NATO scare mongering reaching silly season;Quote:
This is just another reason why Ukraine's small cherry-picked videos of a few Russian soldiers' deaths amount to very little when it comes to the casualty disparity. Russia is regularly hammering their deployment points with strategic weaponry that has no symmetrical equal, wiping out dozens if not hundreds of troops at a time.
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1973169-9fb7-43ca-8b5b-6b6507e13c8a_400x530.png][/url]
In the meantime, Russia gets stronger each day. A new batch of the latest 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV platforms was seen heading to the front, proving these systems are now in mass production as Russian defense officials promised last year:
This is now the world's most powerful and advanced artillery system. It has a totally new liquid-cooled barrel, and those big square blocks on the front are its own ballistic radar units which record the trajectories of each shot, calculating miniscule deviations from air pressure, wind, atmospherics, etc., and then automatically computing that into the next shot. It makes each subsequent shot more accurate than the last. But of course the biggest difference of all is the new barrel can handle far more powerful powder charges, which vastly increases its range. No one quite knows what it is for regular rounds, presumably 30-40km. But for special RAP rounds it's reportedly in the 70-80km range, which would allow it to surpass any of the vaunted NATO weapons like the French Caesar, Phz 2000, etc., and more importantly fire from the deep rear where Ukrainian drones can't reach.
HIMARs, however, can still theoretically reach it with its ~90km range, if a Shark recon drone is allowed to spot the Koalitsiya. However, if the Koalitsiya is at max range, the HIMARs may have to go nearly right up to the frontline, or at least uncomfortably close to within 10-20km, putting itself in range of superior Russian frontline ISR, which I doubt they'd risk doing.
Quote:
AFU's head of aerial recon center for Berdiansk-in-exile says Russia is pulling away in drones and EW tech:Some may recall I had written about him beforehow he left Google to essentially work for the DoD, to supercharge their technological integration for the 21st century.Quote:
Ours traditional electronic warfare means have become ineffective. Russia now surpasses us both in quantity and quality.
Head of the Berdyansk aerial reconnaissance center
He makes a couple big admissions in his piece:The following must have been really hard to swallow:Quote:
After Russian troops first marched on Kyiv, Ukrainian forces were praised for the technological ingenuity that helped them thwart their more powerful invader. Now, Russia has caught up in the innovation contest and Ukraine is struggling to maintain the flow of military assistance from its external partners. In order to undercut Russia's advantage in this phase of the war, Ukraine and its allies will need to not just ramp up defense production but also invest in developing and scaling technologies that can counter Russia's formidable new drones.
Quote:
At the beginning of 2024, another representative of military intelligence, Vadym Skibitskyi, provided more accurate data. According to him,the enemy's ground forces in Ukraine amount to 462,000 people. Additionally, there are 35,000 servicemen of the National Guard (Rosgvardia) ensuring the occupation regime in the seized territories. This does not account for those involved in aviation and the Navy. He also emphasized that the staffing of Russian units was maintained at a level of 92-95%.
The occupation army in Ukraine consists of several groups:
Center and West \- operate on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis South with responsibility in the Donetsk region East (two wings East and Zaporizhzhia) - operates on the administrative border of the Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia regions and in the south Dnipro \- the left-bank part of the Kherson region
It is challenging to provide an exact number for each direction, as Russians regularly move along the front line. According to a retired Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksii Hetman, approximately 130,000 forces are concentrated in the Lyman-Kupiansk direction, and around 80,000 in the Bakhmut direction.
"They are trying to break through to Kostiantynivka here, although at first, they need to take Chasiv Yar. One can say the force is powerful. Recently, it has doubled, as the estimated number was up to 40,000 earlier," he notes in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.….
The size of the Russian army and its combat capability
As of the beginning of 2023, the authorized strength of the Russian Armed Forces was 1.15 million servicemen. At that time, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed increasing it to 1.5 million people, including contract soldiers - up to 695,000. Additionally, he advocated raising the maximum age for conscription to 30.
Shoigu justified his initiative as a response to the "desire of NATO to increase military potential near Russian borders and expand the alliance at the expense of Finland and Sweden." It should be noted that in 2023, Finland joined NATO, and Sweden is expected to be accepted this year. In parallel, Russia created two new inter-service strategic territorial associations - the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.
In December 2023, Putin increased the strength of the army to 2.2 million, of which 1.33 million are servicemen. The Russian Ministry of Defense decided not to bother with justification.
Quote:
According to the expert's estimates, the pace of mobilization in Russia could rise to 40-50 thousand per month.
"About 500 thousand by the end of the year. But they won't conduct it like in the fall of 2022. Then they mobilized 100 thousand per month, and the system almost collapsed. I think Russia will use a light version within the range of 50 thousand per month to avoid overloading the system. And this can meet the needs for mobilization resources," Kovalenko notes.