Yes I think it was posted up above but again the admissions are often not recognized for what they are. I think some of the lack of feedback is related to a tacit recognition however that 'it is what it is.'
Poland has been refusing to cooperate in the Nordstream inquiry as European investigators increasingly believe the Ukrainian crew who blew up the pipeline transited via Poland (NATO territory) pic.twitter.com/qybPBq4XTq
Zelensky is “politically already dead,” - Secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security ▪️At a meeting of the National Security Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, a discussion of the government bill on mobilization was held with the participation, in particular, of the… pic.twitter.com/ktr44WGgOg
The US is worried that the rift between Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, is hampering Kiev's military efforts, Bloomberg has reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The Biden administration wants Ukraine to "sharpen" its plan for fighting Russia in 2024, the agency said in the article on Thursday.
However, Washington is concerned that "differences" between Zelensky and Zaluzhny "are slowing efforts to crystallize a new strategy," the sources said.
According to one of Bloomberg's interlocutors, the US must clearly understand Kiev's plans to determine "how it can best align its support to help Ukraine defend itself in the coming year."
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is likely to raise the issue with Zelensky on the sidelines of the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the people said. Earlier this week, WEF president Borge Brende announced that the Ukrainian leader will attend the high-profile event, scheduled to take place between January 15 and 19.
Bloomberg said that "tensions" between Zelensky and Zaluzhny emerged in November when the president was angered by the general describing the situation on the battlefield with Russia as a stalemate in his interview with The Economist. Zaluzhny later retracted his comments, but "stresses have remained despite official assertions the leadership is unified," it insisted.
More US weapons to Kiev pointless, will just result in more casualties. RT:
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Further military aid to Ukraine will prolong the conflict with Russia without yielding a positive result, a retired US Army officer has argued, amid a rift in Congress over whether to release more funds for Kiev. The US administration has so far failed to get Congressional approval for $61.4 billion in support for Ukraine, which is part of a larger $106 billion supplemental spending bill.
David L. Davis, a retired lieutenant colonel and Iraq and Afghanistan veteran, who is currently working as an analyst at a Washington-based think tank, gave his take on the dispute on Tuesday, saying: "It's pointless to just give another $60 billion to Ukraine so that they can just continue the war on for the another year without result, except that another several hundred thousand Ukrainian people will die for nothing."
Speaking on his 'Daniel Davis / Deep Dive' podcast, he said Ukraine was not able to turn the tables "when they had everything that the West could give them," let alone "now that [the West] don't have that stuff to give."
His podcast can be interesting, fwiw, here he discusses the…ridiculous proxy war's possible impact on Biden's campaign this year:
Then last July, I wrote how some of the material was ending up in the hands of criminal gangs. Now there's a new report that the problem is even worse than previously described.
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More than $1 billion in military weapons and equipment that the United States has provided Ukraine to fight invading Russian forces cannot be accounted for and is not being fully tracked, according to a Pentagon audit released Thursday.
Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has been given roughly $45 billion in U.S. military aid that has included a wide range of weapons such as air-defense systems, anti-drone systems, various missiles and rockets and small-arms ammunition. The Defense Department inspector general concluded in the report that about $1 billion in weapons that are required to be tracked have not been.
No big deal, maybe it was just a few? Nope:
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It involves some 40,000 weapons. The audit didn't say what happened to the weapons, saying that was beyond their scope to assess.
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The untracked weapons are subject to what the Pentagon calls enhanced end-use monitoring, or EEUM, requirements. Equipment that falls under the EEUM category requires heightened accountability and security due to its sensitive technology and smaller size, which makes it more appealing to arms traffickers.
But the DOD wasn't properly accounting for the material, not complying "with the EEUM program requirements for defense article accountability in a hostile environment."
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"This occurred for multiple reasons, including the limited number of [U.S.] personnel at logistics hubs in a partner nation and in Ukraine, the absence of procedures for conducting EEUM in a hostile environment until December 2022, the movement restrictions for EEUM personnel within Ukraine and a lack of internal controls," the report reads.
The inspector general's report makes several recommendations to improve accountability for EEUM weapons sent to Ukraine. They include improving inventory processes to keep track of the hardware, improving "timely and accurate reporting" for the weapons, better documentation of third- party transfers, putting serial numbers of all EEUM weapons in a central database and adding internal controls to verify that the database is updated within a required time.
Whoops. If they're not able to account for them, they could have gone anywhere, including to the gangs or Russia. On top of that, this has been going on for two years and they still haven't dealt with the issues. Indeed, they act aggrieved that people are calling them on it.
As I've posted a multitude of times, this "fight against Putin/Russia" in many ways simply benefits Russians, or at least the wealthy oligarchs in Russia anyway (such as Baturina etc., who happen to be the types who have paid the Biden familia over the years).
And yet EUCOM was apparently being told several months and one large-scale Ukrainian offensive ago that the Russian army in Ukraine was absolutely shattered.
The Ukrainians lie so often, so thoroughly, to so many people, that it's genuinely shocking to hear a serious assessment. https://t.co/j0Ph2zcP5N
Who would’ve geussed in 2022 that this idiot cabal would end up doing more harm to the Ukrainian position and people than any neutral or pro-Russian account ever could.
You propagated the idea that Ukraine could win this conflict either for your own personal gain or out of your… pic.twitter.com/44siTbu8Fi
It will be a hard pill for Uke and its supporters in the west to swallow, but I agree completely with that last part: Their actions made it worse. Biden and incompetence are inseparable.
Yes, when the ISW, which is British Intelligence, which also runs Ukrainian intelligence largely, which is entirely propaganda almost 99 percent of the time, confirms the Russians are having no problem raising forces, rotating them, and replacing losses…well it's a shift from even just 30 days ago.
2/ Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 12, 2024
4/ The apparent Russian ability to generate forces at a rate equal to Russian losses likely provides Russian forces the ability to replenish units that the Russian command has withdrawn from the line due to degradation and later return these replenished units to the front.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 12, 2024
5/ ISW has not observed widespread Russian complaints about a lack of rotations throughout the theater since summer 2023, and the overall tempo of Russian operations is consistent with Skibitskyi’s reporting.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 12, 2024
And no, that is not, as absurdly claimed, "all Russian land component forces" but rather just those in theater.
Simplicius' update today noting the strange militant commitment of Democrats to keep the invasion of the US going even if it means no more money/weapons for their dependency in Kiev.
Overall assessment building on the ISW admission the Russians are doing fine with sustainment/rotation:
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On the tactical front, Ukraine is showing itself extremely well. In many cases they are even superior to the Russian forces on a given front or level, owing to their defensive positions and the advantage thereof, as well as their craftier use of UAV technology and NATO ISR capabilities.
However, where a lot of the disproportionate damage is being done is in the field of totally unstoppable operational depth Russian strikes. Ukraine's air defenses are now more depleted than ever, and conversely, Russia's air arsenal is stronger than ever because all of its PGM (precision guided munition) productive capacities have continued to go up parabolically. They are firing more missiles and other types of weapons than ever, particularly the growing portfolio of UMPK bombs.
In the last report we learned about Russia adapting RBK-500 cluster munitions, now we have full confirmation they are also using 1500kg Fabs as well as even ODAB-1500 thermobarics. Today Shoigu visited the UMPK assembly line, giving us a rare firsthand look at some of the innovations being done in real time:
In the above you can even see a never-before-seen test of one of the bombs, showing how it turns over after release before spreading its wings.
Given these increases, Ukraine's positions in the rear are being struck with major losses incurred each time. For instance, since the last reportwhere I listed several "rear sites" that were hit with major lossesthere has been a new hit on a mercenary hotel in Kharkov.
The drone war also continues to heat up, with a recent article admitting Ukrainian soldiers are forced to outright abandon their vehicles because Russian drones mercilessly destroy them all:
Anyway, he touches on the obviously feckless and related American/UK strikes in Yemen on the Houthi's, which is probably correct, and finishes with this note regarding the Ukrainian murder/torture of American citizen Gonzo Lira:
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"I have had double pneumonia (both lungs) as well as pneumothorax and a very severe case of edema (swelling of the body). All this started in mid-October, but was ignored by the prison. They only admitted I had pneumonia at a Dec. 22 hearing. I am about to have a procedure to reduce the edema pressure in my lungs, which is causing me extreme shortness of breath, to the point of passing out after minimal activity, or even just talking for 2 minutes."
There is not much else to say. Lira was a controversial figure due to his previous stint as a dating advice coach, but that did not make him deserving of death by the Ukrainian regime. For all the accusations made against Russia, no American journalist or figure has died in Russian captivity, while an American citizen has now not only died in Ukrainian captivity, but under various forms of torture, at that. He described some of that torture in his final video, including things like his eyeballs being scraped by sharp objects and other ghoulishly medieval techniques. But of course, no one in the Nazi-complicit US regime cares; another in a long line of gross hypocrisies from the people that brought you the farcical "Rule of Law" and "Rules Based Order".
⚡️🇷🇺Concern Kalashnikov increased production of machine tools by 65% in 2023
Last year, Kalashnikov Concern JSC, part of Rostec, produced 126 units of industrial products, including 48 250ITVM machines. The increase compared to 2022 was 65%.
One starts to suspect that Sarah is actually a deep-cover Russian mole sent to do as much reputational harm to US/Ukraine as possible. A sort of Zoolander undercover operation. pic.twitter.com/GhkLhGDGzg
Zelensky the brave warrior for peace and freedom dodged military service 4 times:
🤡 zelensky avoided military service four times.
Ambassador at Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik posted a screenshot of the official page of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense from 2019. The department's report notes that the future president of Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/839VCgEvhs
I guess he shouldn't look down on the dodgers in Germany/Poland:
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Ukrainian Mobilization Dodgers Safe In Germany
I imagine that any Ukrainian males who are outside of Ukraine and fearful of becoming dead meat on the battlefield will be seeking passage to Germany where the constitution does not allow extradition, according to Minister of Justice and Consumer Protection, Marco Buschman. Poland has also refused to extradite mobilisation dodgers.
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BRICS in Crimea
Next month, Russia is expecting Belarusian leader Lukashenko, Chinese President Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Modi and South African President Ramaphosa to visit the peninsula for the tenth anniversary of Crimea's annexation. The collective West will then be in no doubt that the leaders of BRICS will be giving a large hint that they support Crimea's unity with Russia.
Ukraine cited as cause for price collapse of agricultural goods;
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A major border checkpoint between Ukraine and Romania was blocked by the EU nation's farmers on Saturday.
Agricultural producers have been staging protests in the area over the past few days, over continuing Ukrainian imports, which, according to the local media, have caused a "price collapse" in the entire Black Sea region.
The blockade was confirmed by the Ukrainian border service, which said on Telegram that the movement of trucks through the Siret checkpoint which has become a major export route for Ukrainian goods into the EU had been barred. As many as 825 vehicles were seeking to enter Romania from Ukraine at the time the border crossing was blocked, it added.
The Ukrainian authorities stated that the reason for the blockade was "unknown." Earlier this week, the Romanian media reported that farmers from the northern part of the country had decided to block the Siret checkpoint since it was a major route for grain transit.
It is not just about manufacturing capacity--in theory the US may build, in the next 10+ years, some facilities to increase production of 155-mm shells or drones. But it will not be able to match industrial capacity of Russia in this respect, even with theoretical addition of future, if any, European capacity. The issue here is not just quantity--the target impossible to reach due to utter destruction of US manufacturing base and an extremely complex supply chains for military production. This all is just the tip of the iceberg. The main body of the iceberg is a complete catastrophe that the US military doctrinal and, as a result, procurement development is.
I spoke about it for years--some gaps, such as in air defense or missilery the US will not be able to close, because as I type this, this gap continues to grow. It is measured not in years but in generations. This is, as an example, the result of misguided and illiterate approach to air defense based on... air power. You have to literally undo the whole thing, and this requires not just building some facilities, but a complete rethinking of America's defense or, rather, "offense" philosophy which doesn't work. It never did. This is impossible in the present state of the American geopolitical thought without rethinking the United States as it perceived itself in the last hundred years. The US has no courage, intellect and will to do so because it leads to a destruction of America's mythology.
So, the US is stuck. So, it is good that John Mearsheimer understands parts of it, but he doesn't understand the heart of the matter. After the US strategically and operationally "planned" VSU's "counteroffensive", the question of the competence of the US military establishment arose and was answered--it is incompetent! It will take a generation or two to even teach those who are currently in the plebe years in US service academies to think properly and within the framework of America's REAL military and industrial capability. This REAL capability has nothing in common with the US halcyon years of WW II and after and it is not coming back.
Not sure I really agree with the former and/or latter. Military doctrine is always evolving and I think the US is actually well positioned in drone technology/ISR etc. vs. our peers/near-peers. The capacity to ramp up tube and artillery production is also still present in the US. Much of the Ukraine war and the mythologized 'counter-offensive of spring 2023' was managed by Nuland-State/CIA folks, not our real military leadership, though I am certainly critical of plenty of our 4-star/Milley types.
The Nuland, Kerry, Biden, 'Sara' Cirillo types have damaged the reputation of the US/American military capabilities broadly via Ukraine, of course.
⚡️🇷🇺The advantage of having night optics, which the unfortunate AFU soldiers didn't have. Russian soldier sneaks up point blank and takes an AFU victim. pic.twitter.com/VVJu4etf07
Not really, China and Russia were not part of the discussions. Russia was specifically not invited.
The next round of the crisis is cooking.
The scenario described is highly unlikely but it's noteworthy the Bundeswehr apparently agrees with me that the time is ripe for a Russian strategic offensive in Ukraine in the near future. https://t.co/zslXqgkJDZ
I simply do not believe that Russia can or will attack NATO. It's suicide.
Not sure why all of a sudden EU countries are pushing this unless they are just trying to wag the dog a bit and shift attention away from their domestic chaos.
It's mostly just 'what if' stuff the Euro militaries/establishment (as in Germany) are writing up that is then picked up by their own ignoramus press as meaning something it doesn't, imho. Keep in mind the 'establishment' parties in Germany are absolutely desperate vs. the farmers and AfD at this point.
This is misguided nonsense. Russia will "win" the Ukraine war in some fashion. That will unleash an earthquake in European politics, especially in Germany where the 3 coalition parties are polling at a combined 31% and Scholz's approval rating is in the teens. Russia will then… https://t.co/Vb3zd1Vbfe
FS: Did you have more confidence in the system when you were speaking for President Zelenskyy's government?
OA: I was the spokesperson of the Office of the President, not of the government, but yes. The main motivation for me when the war started was to hold our people together, not to be afraid of this invasion and to hold strong for victory. That's still my motivation. But I'm a military professional and I have fought for more than two years in this war. I understand what we have to do to win this war. You have to look at what Mr. Putin is doing now. There are four principle strategic decisions he has taken over the past year and a half which have given him superiority over the Ukrainian position.
First of all, he managed to change the frame of this war from a Russian-Ukrainian war into a war between the global South and the global West. We can see how Brics organisations have multiplied since and Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Iran and other countries are coming together into a so-called "anti-Western bloc". This changes the frame and gives them diplomatic and political abilities they didn't have at the beginning of the war, when the whole world condemned this invasion.
Second, Putin managed to avoid a lot of the sanctions because of this change in frame, which has, thirdly, enabled him to multiply the production of his military industry. We used to speak about how Russia would have insufficient means to produce the cruise missiles which they use to strike Ukraine, but they have since managed to produce them. They have a system of avoiding sanctions which works very well. The fourth strategic decision was to motivate the Russian people to get involved in the war. Fourteen thousand Russian recruits arrive every month to the recruiting centres and Putin now doesn't need conscription. This is completely different from the Ukrainian situation. We are trying to recruit half a million personnel, but we face serious problems in terms of motivation.
FS: Do you believe that those four things mean that Russia and Putin are in a different position now to when you were working for Zelenskyy?
OA: Absolutely. They are now in a much better position than when the war started. They have changed their group of allies, building links using an anti-colonial narrative to the Global South. This has been very successful. For us, for me, for Ukraine, why I criticise Mr. Zelensky's policy and our system, mostly it is on these last two points: the motivation for our people to fight, and the military-industrial production. We obviously can't compare it with Russia, because it's a huge country with a lot of resources. But we are not doing what we can.
FS: What happens next if there is no change to the system, as you call it? Do you think Russia will make further territorial gains inside Ukraine?
OA: I don't think the most dangerous thing is losing more territory; the most dangerous thing is losing Western support. Right now, the United States is too deeply involved in Ukrainian military and financial decisions. This a very, very dangerous and non-stable position because Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, have a big ideological conflict about the Ukrainian question which is linked to the coming Presidential election. The question of Ukrainian assistance is very fragile.
He seems to make a lot of sense/good points, I can see why Zelensky is refusing to hold elections.
The average age of soldiers in the Ukrainian army is over 40 years old, Aleksey Tarasenko, commander of Kiev's 5th Assault Brigade, has claimed, adding that the military is in dire need of younger recruits. Speaking to Espresso TV on Sunday, Tarasenko said it is "outlandish and perplexing" to hear that some people doubt the need for another mobilization.
"The military is eagerly awaiting fresh reinforcements because the situation in many units is critical in terms of personnel," he explained. "Even those who do come often leave much to be desired. Mostly, these are men of a much older age with a multitude of problems that typically arise."
The military desperately needs "young men" because those who joined the army at the very beginning of the conflict are mostly "gone," he said, adding that the average age of the soldiers is over 40.
Tarasenko's remarks came after the parliament asked the government for additional revisions of a much-debated bill that would lower the maximum draft age from 27 to 25, limit deferrals, and increase penalties for draft dodgers. Critics say the bill contains provisions that violate the constitution and pave the way for corruption.
🇺🇦 The commander of one of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ordered those who refused to move to positions to leave the ranks. Almost all the soldiers came out. The level of morale of the Ukrainian army is clear.
