We believe all women!

nortex97 said:

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This can’t be real can it? This woman?? https://t.co/0C8kS06eXa

— Brittany Martinez (@BritMartinez) September 22, 2023

Unbelievable, a cannibalistic, pedophilic artist in charge of 'rebuilding Ukrainian schools' (with American money)?

Please tell me this is not the case and just propaganda and I will apologize.

---

Looks like she's an "ambassador" the way Mark Hamill apparently is. Basically just a "celeb" helping with pr because she hates Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-asks-marina-abramovic-to-be-ambassador-for-ukraine/ar-AA1h6Bf8

But nortex said that she will be "in charge" (his exact words) of rebuilding Ukraine schools with American money.

fka ftc said:

---

We believe all women!

---

Does he count as a woman though? This war is so serious, I am not sure.

I think the real concern to me is that this represents a handful of problems/issues:

• Betrayal of traditional Ukrainian values
• Decreased ability to appeal to Ukrainians
• Likelihood this pedophilic/satanic artist has access to American intelligence data (which we admit we are sharing freely) relative to human trafficking etc.
• Lowers further the likelihood, however remote, this is at all about a free/independent Ukraine not wedded to the WEF/globalist views about all things in social/private life.

It's the same thing as the (now suspended) mentally ill (transgender) american spokesperson. That was maybe 'cute' for a while in the west until the mental illness really lost it publicly. It only ever damaged the regime's credibility within Ukraine though.

Just appointing hateful, deranged people who loathe Russia into positions doesn't indicate a coherent strategy/outlook, imho. These are basically crazy people:

An HIV infected homosexual who dresses like a woman and threatens death upon Americans. A perfect spokesman for the war. https://t.co/Fnwu7gd9tH

— RAMZPAUL (@ramzpaul) September 22, 2023

Goes without saying that Marina Abramovic should be kept as far away from children as possible, not put in charge of “rebuilding Ukrainian schools” https://t.co/ThumQ3tt2z

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) September 22, 2023

nortex97 said:

---

I think the real concern to me is that this represents a handful of problems/issues:

• Betrayal of traditional Ukrainian values
• Decreased ability to appeal to Ukrainians
• Likelihood this pedophilic/satanic artist has access to American intelligence data (which we admit we are sharing freely) relative to human trafficking etc.
• Lowers further the likelihood, however remote, this is at all about a free/independent Ukraine not wedded to the WEF/globalist views about all things in social/private life.

It's the same thing as the (now suspended) mentally ill (transgender) american spokesperson. That was maybe 'cute' for a while in the west until the mental illness really lost it publicly. It only ever damaged the regime's credibility within Ukraine though.

Just appointing hateful, deranged people who loathe Russia into positions doesn't indicate a coherent strategy/outlook, imho. These are basically crazy people:

An HIV infected homosexual who dresses like a woman and threatens death upon Americans. A perfect spokesman for the war. https://t.co/Fnwu7gd9tH

— RAMZPAUL (@ramzpaul) September 22, 2023

Goes without saying that Marina Abramovic should be kept as far away from children as possible, not put in charge of “rebuilding Ukrainian schools” https://t.co/ThumQ3tt2z

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) September 22, 2023

---

Certainly not something I would do so I'm in general agreement with you as she seems like a lunatic, just pointing out that Jack P's tweet (like most people who include screenshots of articles instead of a link) was purposely misleading regarding her actual role. Without seeing more info it seems like it's just an influencer and wouldn't have access to sensitive info, etc. But yea, definitely not someone I'd want in representing the US.

nortex97 said:

---

Yeah I think there is some big celebration about 1 Russian killed and an administrative naval building hit by a cruise missile in Sevastopol too. Ok.

Meanwhile, the Russians keep building up forces/munitions…

Based on the draft budget plans seen by Bloomberg, secret expenditure of classified or unspecified items that the Kremlin keeps from the public to avoid scrutiny of the war's impact is expected to nearly double.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 22, 2023

And, of course, the ancient Leopards/Challengers seem to be, brace yourself, in need of constant maintenance/repairs…

Ten Leopard 1 battle tanks have arrived in Ukraine with minor defects, which the Ukrainian military is already repairing, TV2 wrote, citing a statement by Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 22, 2023

---

Well I can't say how many Russians were killed in the strike on the BSF HQ, but I can say it was more than one missile.

‼️ NEW: Among severely wounded in Ukrainian attack on Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol — Col. Gen. Alexander Romanchuk and Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsekov, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov tells @VOAnews. He confirms at least 9 dead and 16 injured among RUS military personnel.

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 22, 2023

Great, Russia just got stronger with all those dead senior officers. Ukraine will never learn.

An "administrative naval building" from another perspective. It was old and in need of renovation. Addition by subtraction.

GAC06 said:

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Non watermarked/clearer pic.twitter.com/vR2RbQLe1F

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

---

People often get into trouble on this board posting links with no "hot takes". You might want to edit your post with some "hot takes" or risk "drawing a ban" as the moderators say.

If it is too much trouble to read the posts in this thread, the video relates to the claim that:

"Yeah I think there is some big celebration about 1 Russian killed and an administrative naval building hit by a cruise missile in Sevastopol too. Ok. "

Clearly at least two missiles hit the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet. There are claims and rumors that numerous high ranking Russians are casualties, but that remains to be determined.

In general, headquarters are becoming very dangerous duty stations for Russians.

Ukrainian Sources: The HQ for the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was destroyed in #Melitopol by a HIMARS GMLRS strike wounding its commander, possibly Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin, and killing or injuring other high-ranking staff.

"The other day, the SBU and ZSU struck a… pic.twitter.com/BRPU3gAmUA

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) September 22, 2023

As suggested elsewhere, perhaps they should implement WFH rules. Work from home, or work from hell.

That's a pretty good hot take! I laughed.

Do these deaths affect anything or are there simply going to be promotions in store?

I guess the 'revenge' strike was made overnight.

𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐊𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐮𝐠 𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐚-𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥, 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚… https://t.co/WswP0HKz2D pic.twitter.com/CSRKKWmZWt

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) September 22, 2023

pic.twitter.com/1lLWlbNIlr

— Cyborgigy (@FrogstarWorld) September 22, 2023

This woman is just a disgusting stain on the US' diplomatic history, imho.

Zelensky's delusions about Bakhmut are almost akin to Hitler's obsession about Stalingrad.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The Ukrainian counteroffensive will most likely not achieve its goals of cutting or “narrowing” the land corridor to Crimea.

The New York Times writes about this in the article “Zelensky’s visit showed the strategic gap between Ukraine and the United States.”

"Russian… pic.twitter.com/95BJGKaWYV

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 23, 2023

Meh, I'll look about for more hot takes later. It's always the same story, daily, a field here or there changes hands, propaganda press sees 'tactically significant' movement, a thousand or three thousand Ukrainians die, they strike something that none of us knew existed the day before and proclaim it a huge deal, and the Russians strike back, invariably with more force.

Forever war, comrades!

New one knew the Black Sea fleet HQ existed in svestapol before this week?


Hot take indeed.

Sort of fascinating look at tank production/protection/refurbishment (skip the propaganda at the beginning, have to turn on english auto translate captions, the anti-drone discussion is at the end):



What is the American/European/western goal, in Ukraine in the minds of the Russian side? Interesting response/discussion, particularly given some of the vitriol/base hatred of Russians as a people/culture I have seen posted on this forum this week:

Quote:

---

There is clearly something very dark going on in Ukraine. Ukraine has both the highest percentage of Jews in its administration of any country on earth outside of Israel, but also the highest percentage of open Nazis in its governmental and military ranks. How's that possible?

Zelensky himself stated several times that he envisions Ukraine becoming like a new Israel to the West.
In the grand scheme of things, what I believe to be the overall neocon goal is what I outlined in the Heartland Goldrush article above, which is basically taking out Russia and China to rule the world, as Russia/China represent the last two capable forces strong enough to withstand the Atlanticist Empire. Beneath this broader geopolitical end game, I do think there are many other sub-objectives which can be thought of as killing multiple birds with one stone, as the first author suggested.

The conundrum brought up about the hatred of Russia over that of Ukrainian nationalists being illogical and irreconcilable is true. In my view it's because the globalists who are trying to create a one world totalitarian system need to uproot the last still-standing bastions of tradition, heritage, and culture in the world. Ukraine is already uprooted and deracinatedit has no authentic culture left, just whatever anachronistic and apocryphal new-age hogwash their script-writers feed them to engineer a false sense of national pseudo-destiny.

But countries like Russia and China, due to their deeply rooted traditionalism and culture, are a very big thorn in the globalists' side, as people who value heritage and family cannot be mind-controlled and enslaved like the Western world has been. Hence Russia and China are the end game because after that, the globalists can institute their new age ideology across the globe, and basically enact the Coudenhove-Kalergi plan to turn humanity into a subserviant, cultureless, unquestioning race of Morlocks.

In view of such grand schemes, the pesky incongruities happening in Ukraine, as openly flaunted in the above embassy post, are not a major consideration or obstacle for the true shadow hands at the top of the pyramid.

---

Making that satanic/pedophilic 'artist' some sort of ambassador/childrens schools leader is indicative of some of the WEF types of goals/leadership I expect from the regime in Kiev (and Democrats here).

Anyway, long form discussion at the link (though I would caution that our more 'sensitive' posters probably would find it NSFW to read). Question 26 though has an interesting response that to me is plausible:

Quote:

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The next half year or so I expect intense efforts from certain parties to freeze the conflict. If they don't succeed then Russia will likely use the winter to greatly degrade Ukraine's infrastructure, particularly the power and electrical just like last winter. The official stat I've seen claims only 25% of last year's damage was repaired. That means Russia could "finish off" much of their power grid this time around.
Also during winter, all the vegetation dies out which heavily favors Russia as its superior frontline ISR capabilities will target Ukrainian troop concentrations all throughout the now naked forests, inflicting grievous casualties on them while likely even advancing in key regions like Kupyansk where the forests are heaviest.

In spring-summer 2024 we can expect both to attempt new offensives as Ukraine will conduct a mass mobilization before hand. Unfortunately, they will not have heavy equipment for much of those troops and will suffer increased slaughter while continually reorienting its remaining resources towards hybrid/asymmetric warfare on Russia's "rear" infrastructuremore "showy" strikes on empty HQs in Crimea and things of that nature with little result.

Depending how large of a meat-assault force Ukraine mobilizes this winter, Russia may even choose to continue playing defense for a while longer next year as it will be increasingly easier to destroy the enemy forces out in the open. But there's still a good chance that at least by summer time if not sooner Russia will launch its own heavier offensives after having accrued enough munitions in the interim.
Seeing where the current map is drawn, and noting the timelines for progress in the past, we know the following: the most significant captures of 2022 were Mariupol and the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomerate. In 2023, Russia only really took Bakhmut (with some outlying settlements like Soledar, etc.).

Russia's ongoing and likely continuing focus will be on the Kharkov region for 3 main reasons:
[ol]

It's where it currently has the most forces/momentum/initiative arrayed

It's critical to freeing the remainder of both Lugansk and Donetsk republic territories

It's critical for eventually encircling the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomerate, which itself is critical for capturing all of Donbass

[/ol]
Additionally, there are recent rumors of an even larger Russian force build-up there for an offensive. We can deduce that Kharkov could remain the focus well into 2024, with the goal being to perhaps get to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk's doorstep by the end of 2024, with perhaps a winter city battle for the agglomerate in winter 2024-2025 just as Bakhmut was a winter battle early this year. That's because rasputitsa and winter conditions don't really affect city battles as there are paved roads that don't bog down with mud, and shelter in buildings for the cold, etc.

Any number of unexpected major moves could happen, or some black swan event. But if we follow the most pedantic military strategic line, we get the above. That the focus for the next 1 year period could be the Kharkov region in order to bring Russia's forces once more onto the Izyum/Barenkove salient and besiege Slavyansk-Kramatorsk from the northwest.

2-4 year projection would see Slavyansk-Kramatorsk being taken by 2025, which sets off a domino effect of most of Donbass and east of the Dnieper regions falling, as there are very few defensible settlements between the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomerate and Pavlograd, which itself is already near the river.

Before going onthe question of, why do I foresee the development of the Kharkov push rather than somewhere else like pushing north from Zaporozhye? Answer: because it's pointless pushing from there as there are no forces up north you can connect to create a cauldron. By developing Kharkov into the previous Izyum salient, you can create a potential pincer for all of Donbass after Slavyansk-Kramatorsk falls.

As to 4-5 years and beyond. If Russia should get to this point where most of Donbass is taken, we have to consider the following. Ukraine reportedly lost upwards of 70k in Bakhmut (some estimates higher) and 70k+ thus far in the counteroffensive. The Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomerate was always the headquarters for the entire ATO/JFO and is by far the densest concentration of Ukrainian assets and would be a grand, epic final stand for them. That means we can expect them to lose even much more there than in Bakhmut, unless they really play it smart and just ditch it the way they did Severodonetsk-Lisichansk.

That means, if they lose 100k+ defending that metro area, we must consider that their armed forces could potentially be so broken as to be incapable of continuing past that point.

If they manage to continue, they will likely be too broken to hold many more positions in the east, and would likely effect a swift retreat west of the Dnieper. If they then strategically blow all the bridges, preventing Russian forces from following them across, it would entail a massive rest & refit and reorientation of Russian forces from the north (Belarus, etc.) to continue chasing Ukraine into the interior regions. This would could take as long as 6 months to a year and would pause the conflict until 2026.
Anticipating the question of why Russia would have to reorient from the north: because if UA blows all the Dnieper bridges on retreat, it will be physically impossible for a massive army of 300-500k+ to ford/pontoon the river, especially with today's ubiquitous, all-seeing ISR technologies. Russia could hardly ford the Donets river without losing an entire battalion at one time to massive fire destruction last year, it's simply not going to happen with the exponentially larger Dnieper. Nor will Russia care to do a mass combined airmobile assault and D-Day style amphibious beachhead, as that would entail inordinate casualties.

Therefore, the final projection would be from 2026 onward for the Russian army to come down from Kiev once again, then chase the remainder of the AFU through central Ukraine with the intent of capturing Odessa. By this point, Poland/NATO would likely get involved, not necessarily kinetically (at least at first), but perhaps taking western Ukraine under a protectorate to create a Ukrainian government-in-exile, since Kiev by then would be effectively surrounded/besieged.

Into 2027, Russia would let the AFU reorganize in the joint Polish-Ukrainian west while Russia captures Odessa and the landbridge by way of Nikolayev-Kherson. At that point a deal would be made to end the war since Russia would now control everything it wants while the AFU command hides in Lvov and digs trenches in Vinnytsa.

That's the pedantic and straightforward outlook, assuming that a.) Russia doesn't turn up the heat somehow in an exponential way with a much more surprising "big arrow" rapid offensive (probably unlikely) and b.) Ukraine doesn't collapse and surrender from unsustainable destruction to their manpower sometime long before we reach that point of 2027 or so. And we can add c.) if NATO/U.S. doesn't stage a massive black swan event or falseflag in order to intervene in the war and save Ukraine at the 11th hour.

As a final point: We've seen now in Zelensky's disappointing charity tour that interest and funding may be drastically waning. This could be reduced even more by next year which would mean that Ukraine simply would not have the sustainment to continue prosecuting a high intensity conflict like this one. If financial and arms support drops even further in 2024, then I foresee a potential Ukrainian military collapse by the end of the year and at latest in 2025. This will likely end in a military coup taking out Zelensky and subsequent mass surrender of the entire armed forces to Russia. Russia would then install its own puppet in Kiev, disarm the AFU entirely like the U.S. did to Japan/Germany post WW2, and install a permanent CSTO peacekeeping force to forever patrol the country and enforce strict arms controls, making sure no secret GLADIO/NATO arms continue streaming into the country through the Western borders. Ukraine will then exist as a rump state while Russia annexes its desired oblasts, which would most likely be Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov, etc.

---

It's disheartening to consider this could go on for 3-4 more years, as it represents such a destruction of the remnant of Ukraine. Hopefully he is just wrong about that.

And Russia continues to work with China to strengthen trade and build out trade infrastructure.

But Russia is going away because they are mean and drink too much vodka and China, a nation of over 1.4 billion people, has demographic problems and are not producing enough babies thus they will also be going away.

From Geopolitical Futures:

Quote:

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In September, diplomatic interactions and gatherings surged. A noteworthy assembly convened, featuring luminaries such as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Mongolia's National Security Council secretary. Ambitious blueprints emerged for the creation of five road and three railway corridors in Mongolia. This trajectory sets the stage for enhanced cooperation, yet it also harbors potential pitfalls, including competition for influence in Mongolia not only among global and regional powers but also between China and Russia.

---

GAC06 said:

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An "administrative naval building" from another perspective. It was old and in need of renovation. Addition by subtraction.

---

The first step in renovation is complete demolition.

GAC06 said:

---

If it is too much trouble to read the posts in this thread, the video relates to the claim that:

"Yeah I think there is some big celebration about 1 Russian killed and an administrative naval building hit by a cruise missile in Sevastopol too. Ok. "

Clearly at least two missiles hit the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet. There are claims and rumors that numerous high ranking Russians are casualties, but that remains to be determined.

In general, headquarters are becoming very dangerous duty stations for Russians.

Ukrainian Sources: The HQ for the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army was destroyed in #Melitopol by a HIMARS GMLRS strike wounding its commander, possibly Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin, and killing or injuring other high-ranking staff.

"The other day, the SBU and ZSU struck a… pic.twitter.com/BRPU3gAmUA

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 (@UKikaski) September 22, 2023

As suggested elsewhere, perhaps they should implement WFH rules. Work from home, or work from hell.

---

Just fwiw, the GMLRS aren't "cruise missiles"...

nortex97 said:

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I guess the 'revenge' strike was made overnight.

𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐊𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐮𝐠 𝐀𝐢𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐚-𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥, 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐚… https://t.co/WswP0HKz2D pic.twitter.com/CSRKKWmZWt

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) September 22, 2023

pic.twitter.com/1lLWlbNIlr

— Cyborgigy (@FrogstarWorld) September 22, 2023

This woman is just a disgusting stain on the US' diplomatic history, imho.

Zelensky's delusions about Bakhmut are almost akin to Hitler's obsession about Stalingrad.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The Ukrainian counteroffensive will most likely not achieve its goals of cutting or “narrowing” the land corridor to Crimea.

The New York Times writes about this in the article “Zelensky’s visit showed the strategic gap between Ukraine and the United States.”

"Russian… pic.twitter.com/95BJGKaWYV

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 23, 2023

Meh, I'll look about for more hot takes later. It's always the same story, daily, a field here or there changes hands, propaganda press sees 'tactically significant' movement, a thousand or three thousand Ukrainians die, they strike something that none of us knew existed the day before and proclaim it a huge deal, and the Russians strike back, invariably with more force.

Forever war, comrades!

---

Except the changing hands has only been in one direction for quite a long time.

And I can't fault the Ukrainians for fighting for "a field here or there" since those fields are THEIR fields and Russians took them from them. I'd want my stuff back, too.

The GMLRS strike was on a different target. The video above is the BSF HQ getting hit by a stormshadow cruise missile, and it had clearly already been hit by at least one more

GAC06 said:

---

The GMLRS strike was on a different target. The video above is the BSF HQ getting hit by a stormshadow cruise missile, and it had clearly already been hit by at least one more

---

Ah ok. I saw the GMLRS on that tweet (or Xeet) and thought it was referring to the other attack. Mea culpa.

I agree with your assessment of more than one missile hitting that building though...

Interesting connection with the satanist ambassador announcement;

The day before, Zelensky held a meeting with American billionaires in New York

Among the meeting participants are media mogul Michael Bloomberg, ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Robert Kraft and diplomat Henry Kissinger.

Zelensky invited them to invest money in restoring… pic.twitter.com/bAiGEEvSC6

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) September 23, 2023

Ukraine fits in very well with the WEF/Schwab corporate-globalist agendas:

World Economic Forum Chairman Klaus Schwab has urged governments to grant the WEF ‘full governmental control’ over their nations as part of the Great Reset agenda for humanity. During his speech, Schwab outlined his plans for the merging of state and corporate power. Speaking at… pic.twitter.com/TUaYkp1Dk4

— Wittgenstein (@backtolife_2023) September 22, 2023

Bloomberg spent $500mil on 1%. Imagine what he will spend on a crossdressing comedian?

Bandera's grandson running nazi party/organization in Canada today:

obligatory it's so much worse than you'd thinkhttps://t.co/uXMalNzJe2

— communist yahoo (@falkiewi) September 24, 2023

Germany has announced that it wants to buy Russian LNG again this winter.

Germany is going to conclude a deal with one of the Gazprom branches in order to circumvent US and NATO sanctions against Russia.

Critics of the German authorities do not rule out that similar… pic.twitter.com/XmanqSRcfB

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 23, 2023

Imagine being a young Ukrainian —rounded up, sent to the front lines, and turned into cannon fodder — so octogenarians in Washington can “deter China” in some elaborate geopolitical bank shot. Like somehow your death in a minefield will change Beijing’s plans. https://t.co/ogM1hNKlCF

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) September 23, 2023

Not American interests:

NEW: Fox News reports that 2,388,350 illegals have crossed the border this year, already surpassing last year’s total.

Billions to Ukraine and we can’t even protect our own homeland.

Here is the historical breakdown of illegal encounters:

2023 (YTD): 2,388,350
2022: 2,378,944… pic.twitter.com/gLKGilNO7j

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 23, 2023

⚡️DeSantis opposes Ukraine's NATO accession.

Ron DeSantis, a leading Republican candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, said in a Sept. 23 podcast he believes that it's not in NATO's best interests to admit Ukraine as a member. “All that would do was add more…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) September 24, 2023

On the 'garbage culture' front, a flashback from the relatively recent past:

Now that we’ve seen Ukraine’s English-speaking tranny spokesman and Zelensky’s relationship with infamous satanist Marina Abramovic, flashback to 09/30/2022.

Putin addresses “Western elites” destroying Western society with gender insanity and “outright Satanism”.

Was he wrong? pic.twitter.com/ECvlcLXv2M

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) September 23, 2023

Apparently, the high-rise building is a hotel in the Odessa port area.

UPD: They suggest that the footage shows the Odessa Hotel.

The Odessa Hotel near the port was not at all what you might think about - it was used as the headquarters of the Ukrainian Navy.

That is, this is… pic.twitter.com/oykVgDBL0p

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) September 24, 2023

Unsurprising.

The Ukrainians are making friends on every stop of their world tour......

A member of Zelensky’s security detail got inebriated in a NY bar, and demanded that Americans shout “glory to Ukraine” when they didn’t comply they acted in typical fashion and started a fight inside the… pic.twitter.com/4i4AF2W0od

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 24, 2023

I wonder if the Odessa Hotel was occupied or "empty" like the Black Sea Fleet HQ?

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-kyiv-says-it-killed-russian-fleet-commander/live-66912711

nortex97 said:

---

Interesting connection with the satanist ambassador announcement;

The day before, Zelensky held a meeting with American billionaires in New York

Among the meeting participants are media mogul Michael Bloomberg, ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Robert Kraft and diplomat Henry Kissinger.

Zelensky invited them to invest money in restoring… pic.twitter.com/bAiGEEvSC6

— il libanese (@Ramy_Sawma) September 23, 2023

---

lulz at the ukraine colored candy corn. have those hit the open market yet?

I look forward to seeing if there are any Ukrainian-themed Halloween candy when stocking up in a couple weeks, just for giggles. It would probably be labeled dishonestly as somehow healthy.

Update: Ukraine steps up Crimean attacks, lies about many of them.


I know we had some war/naval experts who declared the landing ship a write off based on the damage. Oops:

Quote:

---

And that was fixed in only a month or less. That's after Ukrainians laughed and jeered that it was "done" and would be a write off. The Russian MOD likewise said it will repair the damage on the present ships.
As for the Rostov and Minsk, TASS released an official statement that the sub did not in fact suffer any catastrophic damage and its previous repair time would hardly even be affected:

Quote:

---

The damages sustained by the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" of the Black Sea Fleet on September 13th are not critical and will not significantly extend its planned maintenance time. This information was provided to TASS by a source in the defense-industrial complex.
"The submarine has minor damage that did not affect its robust hull. Eliminating them can only slightly increase the time the submarine is undergoing scheduled repairs," he said.
The agency's interviewee clarified that an assessment of the extent of upcoming repair work is underway for the other vessel affected by the Ukrainian strike, the large landing ship "Minsk" of the Baltic Fleet.

---

Some are skeptical, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way the sub was sitting in that maintenance dock for half a year or so, it's not like the strike took out an active component of the fleet.
Now Ukraine has hit the HQ of the Black Sea fleet. First a little context and then we'll get into the biggest question at the heart of the matter: how is Ukraine doing this?

---

But really, who cares? Was the diesel sub all that critical to Russian defensive operations? It's laughable to claim it is.

Quote:

---

Normally, any mission critical assets like headquarters would be positioned deep in the rear of a frontline. This allows a safety net of multiple layers of integrated air defenses to buffer the HQ so that even if it's a low-flying, fast, or stealthy type of missile, it may be missed by the first layer but will eventually be detected as it flies along over several layers of the overlapping radar net coverage. For instance, the first line of area defense may detect something, but not be able to respond fast enough to down it. But they will at least pass the info down to further defenses which will receive either their sensor-fused radar data or simple verbal warning that objects are incoming, allowing them to be far better positioned and prepared to intercept it.

But due to the obvious impossibility of doing that when your HQ happens to sit right on the water, that means Sevastopol is situated on a particularly exposed and dangerous position for which there can be no forward AD or 'advance warning'. This means as missiles come in, there are only a few seconds of lead time, and given that the strikes were said to be saturation attacks which included drones from other directions as well as the ADM-160 Mald decoy missiles, it makes it extremely difficult to defend all this without any forward coverage.

---

Anyway, tit for tat with missile strikes on military targets. The Ukraine hotel operation/logistics center was clearly similarly a 'legitimate' military target;

Quote:

---

Pro-Russian commentator Masno wrote how the hotel was likely being used by Ukrainian services, was under tight security, and in recent days photos showed many windows open for ventilation, indicating that it was being occupied (though not by civilians, as it was closed to civilian use for years):


In fact, during the past day or two, Russia has struck a number of Ukrainian strategic objects and airfields. Dolgintsevo wasn't the only one. The Bolshaya Kakhnovka airfield in Kremenchug was said to be obliterated. The Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky, where Ukraine houses the majority of its Su-24s, was struck again…

---

Quote:

---

In almost all cases, particularly the hit on Dolgintsevo airport where the Mig-29s were destroyed, Russia has sent a contingent of Geran-2 drones first to deplete the Ukrainian air defense. When it's appropriately depleted, the missiles then come in to finish the job.

The bottomline is that, as with everything in this conflict, Ukraine is able to score some hits but Russia outpunches it 5:1 or 10:1, and sometimes even 20:1. For every "HQ hit" Ukraine manages to sneak in, Russia hits a dozen or more HQs, airfields, and other important facilities of Ukraine. Not to mention the fact that Russia stops subsequent attacks, which Ukraine never mentions. For instance, since the Sevastopol hit, there were two other major attacks including one today which included Storm Shadows. All of them were reportedly shot down and Russian forces completely repelled the attack. But that won't get much mention.

Lastly for this section, let me briefly cover why Ukraine has upped its strikes on Crimea so much recently. Partly as I said for appearances with Zelensky's big final hurrah visit to D.C. But another even more important reason has to do with the big grain corridor, which is one of Ukraine's last and most significant strategic-economic operations.

Ever since the grain deal expired two months ago, Russia started obliterating the port infrastructure of the entire Odessan coast and region. Ukraine has been desperate to re-establish some semblance of shipping, particularly with Poland's (not to mention other countries') bans on Ukrainian grain. It's a last economic life line for them. Thus, they are attempting to brute-force a corridor by eliminating Russian naval assets and ideally locking down Russia's Black Sea Fleet in a state of stupor in order to create a corridor that can hug the Ukrainian/Romanian coast.

---

About right. I know this is an emotional topic for a lot of armchair war fans, but the tank losses/production rate also again is very sustainable for the Russians:

Quote:

---

Now, multiple sources like The Economist claim Russia produces 20 brand new tanks per month and up to 90 refurbs:
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76a6e59e-55bd-43fb-b2c3-15c606d33bff_771x101.png][/url]
Wallstreet Journal gives a figure of 250 tanks per year prior to the war:
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc163897-8945-481b-98b5-ea5d9740eaa4_569x157.png][/url]
In fact most of the years around 2010 and afterwards, Russia produced anywhere between 175-250 new tanks per year. Now the production is said to have gone up several times over.



If we take the Economist's numbers, 110 total (produced + refurbs) per month = 1,300+ per year, which is at least in the neighborhood of what several Russian figures have stated.

Getting back to the losses, chart, we can see that this year, Russia is on track for something like 600-800 total tank losses. That should easily be made up for with production. And keep in mind, many of those losses are likely over-calculated. For instance, at the beginning of the counteroffensive Putin had noted in a speech Russia lost a certain amount of tanks, like 40-60, but he said that many of these were subsequently towed back and would be repaired. Most loss counting organizations simply tally any field photo as a loss but ignore the fact that many Russian tanks that appear "hit" will be recovered and repaired, or only suffered minor track damage. Thus a perceived 600-800 yearly losses may really be something like 400-600.

Also, a new video has showcased the mass use of Russian inflatable decoy tanks on the Zaporozhye frontline. So don't be surprised if Oryx and co. start adding "destroyed" inflatables to their database of real Russian 'losses'.

---

"Well, nortex, I hate reading that so it must just be ancient T-55's they are dusting off:". Sorry, no:

Quote:

---

The chart found the opposite correlation. Russian T-90s have skyrocketed from 3-4% to 24%, showing that T-90Ms are being fieldedand thus producedin increased quantities. T-55/T-62 not only had no appreciable gains, they seemed to decrease. There goes that narrative.

The only other notable change was Russian T-80s appeared to decrease drastically as share of losses, but it can be said to be cyclical as they previously decreased in April/May and then shot back up.

The important part is that there is no scientific basis for Russia fielding old T-62/T-55s and in fact Russia is verifiably fielding three times more T-90Ms than before.

For Ukraine it's the opposite. The only thing seen anymore are T-64s and older stuff. Few T-72s are seen and each time a new tiny injection of NATO tanks arrives, they are promptly obliterated:

The above are the Swedish modified variants of German Leopard 2A5s. A few of them were already destroyed in a single day the day before yesterday, which represented a huge chunk of all those received.

---

Anyway, more at the link, as always. Casualty numbers speculation, some excitement around what version of ATACMS etc. Ukraine is getting in limited numbers (60?), and the brutality (as well as desperation) of Ukraine's 'full mobilization/draft.'

I don’t know how else to put this, but all 🇺🇦 supporters have permanently lost their right to an opinion.

Canadian Parliament just honored Ukraine’s deep-rooted Nazi history.

Zelensky just hired the spirit-cooking satanic cannibalistic cultist lady…

The argument is over. pic.twitter.com/r86ewuXaux

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) September 26, 2023

Now, I think nazi's are people, and all people have a right to an opinion. I just can't take Uke supporters seriously at this point, or respect support for this regime, myself.

putin will never recover from this one https://t.co/4wjRrWyFkE

— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) September 25, 2023

Petulant propaganda.

Julian Assange on Western aid to Ukraine:
"The goal is to use Ukraine to launder dirty money from the US and Europe through Ukraine and back into the hands of the transnational elite." The goal is an endless war, not a successful war" pic.twitter.com/T3N5u58szs

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 25, 2023

Truth. Forever war, comrades!

nortex97 said:

---

I look forward to seeing if there are any Ukrainian-themed Halloween candy when stocking up in a couple weeks, just for giggles. It would probably be labeled dishonestly as somehow healthy.

Update: Ukraine steps up Crimean attacks, lies about many of them.


I know we had some war/naval experts who declared the landing ship a write off based on the damage. Oops:

Quote:

---

And that was fixed in only a month or less. That's after Ukrainians laughed and jeered that it was "done" and would be a write off. The Russian MOD likewise said it will repair the damage on the present ships.
As for the Rostov and Minsk, TASS released an official statement that the sub did not in fact suffer any catastrophic damage and its previous repair time would hardly even be affected:

Quote:

---

The damages sustained by the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" of the Black Sea Fleet on September 13th are not critical and will not significantly extend its planned maintenance time. This information was provided to TASS by a source in the defense-industrial complex.
"The submarine has minor damage that did not affect its robust hull. Eliminating them can only slightly increase the time the submarine is undergoing scheduled repairs," he said.
The agency's interviewee clarified that an assessment of the extent of upcoming repair work is underway for the other vessel affected by the Ukrainian strike, the large landing ship "Minsk" of the Baltic Fleet.

---

Some are skeptical, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way the sub was sitting in that maintenance dock for half a year or so, it's not like the strike took out an active component of the fleet.
Now Ukraine has hit the HQ of the Black Sea fleet. First a little context and then we'll get into the biggest question at the heart of the matter: how is Ukraine doing this?

---

But really, who cares? Was the diesel sub all that critical to Russian defensive operations? It's laughable to claim it is.

Quote:

---

Normally, any mission critical assets like headquarters would be positioned deep in the rear of a frontline. This allows a safety net of multiple layers of integrated air defenses to buffer the HQ so that even if it's a low-flying, fast, or stealthy type of missile, it may be missed by the first layer but will eventually be detected as it flies along over several layers of the overlapping radar net coverage. For instance, the first line of area defense may detect something, but not be able to respond fast enough to down it. But they will at least pass the info down to further defenses which will receive either their sensor-fused radar data or simple verbal warning that objects are incoming, allowing them to be far better positioned and prepared to intercept it.

But due to the obvious impossibility of doing that when your HQ happens to sit right on the water, that means Sevastopol is situated on a particularly exposed and dangerous position for which there can be no forward AD or 'advance warning'. This means as missiles come in, there are only a few seconds of lead time, and given that the strikes were said to be saturation attacks which included drones from other directions as well as the ADM-160 Mald decoy missiles, it makes it extremely difficult to defend all this without any forward coverage.

---

Anyway, tit for tat with missile strikes on military targets. The Ukraine hotel operation/logistics center was clearly similarly a 'legitimate' military target;

Quote:

---

Pro-Russian commentator Masno wrote how the hotel was likely being used by Ukrainian services, was under tight security, and in recent days photos showed many windows open for ventilation, indicating that it was being occupied (though not by civilians, as it was closed to civilian use for years):


In fact, during the past day or two, Russia has struck a number of Ukrainian strategic objects and airfields. Dolgintsevo wasn't the only one. The Bolshaya Kakhnovka airfield in Kremenchug was said to be obliterated. The Starokonstantinov in Khmelnitsky, where Ukraine houses the majority of its Su-24s, was struck again…

---

Quote:

---

In almost all cases, particularly the hit on Dolgintsevo airport where the Mig-29s were destroyed, Russia has sent a contingent of Geran-2 drones first to deplete the Ukrainian air defense. When it's appropriately depleted, the missiles then come in to finish the job.

The bottomline is that, as with everything in this conflict, Ukraine is able to score some hits but Russia outpunches it 5:1 or 10:1, and sometimes even 20:1. For every "HQ hit" Ukraine manages to sneak in, Russia hits a dozen or more HQs, airfields, and other important facilities of Ukraine. Not to mention the fact that Russia stops subsequent attacks, which Ukraine never mentions. For instance, since the Sevastopol hit, there were two other major attacks including one today which included Storm Shadows. All of them were reportedly shot down and Russian forces completely repelled the attack. But that won't get much mention.

Lastly for this section, let me briefly cover why Ukraine has upped its strikes on Crimea so much recently. Partly as I said for appearances with Zelensky's big final hurrah visit to D.C. But another even more important reason has to do with the big grain corridor, which is one of Ukraine's last and most significant strategic-economic operations.

Ever since the grain deal expired two months ago, Russia started obliterating the port infrastructure of the entire Odessan coast and region. Ukraine has been desperate to re-establish some semblance of shipping, particularly with Poland's (not to mention other countries') bans on Ukrainian grain. It's a last economic life line for them. Thus, they are attempting to brute-force a corridor by eliminating Russian naval assets and ideally locking down Russia's Black Sea Fleet in a state of stupor in order to create a corridor that can hug the Ukrainian/Romanian coast.

---

About right. I know this is an emotional topic for a lot of armchair war fans, but the tank losses/production rate also again is very sustainable for the Russians:

Quote:

---

Now, multiple sources like The Economist claim Russia produces 20 brand new tanks per month and up to 90 refurbs:
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F76a6e59e-55bd-43fb-b2c3-15c606d33bff_771x101.png][/url]
Wallstreet Journal gives a figure of 250 tanks per year prior to the war:
[url=https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc163897-8945-481b-98b5-ea5d9740eaa4_569x157.png][/url]
In fact most of the years around 2010 and afterwards, Russia produced anywhere between 175-250 new tanks per year. Now the production is said to have gone up several times over.



If we take the Economist's numbers, 110 total (produced + refurbs) per month = 1,300+ per year, which is at least in the neighborhood of what several Russian figures have stated.

Getting back to the losses, chart, we can see that this year, Russia is on track for something like 600-800 total tank losses. That should easily be made up for with production. And keep in mind, many of those losses are likely over-calculated. For instance, at the beginning of the counteroffensive Putin had noted in a speech Russia lost a certain amount of tanks, like 40-60, but he said that many of these were subsequently towed back and would be repaired. Most loss counting organizations simply tally any field photo as a loss but ignore the fact that many Russian tanks that appear "hit" will be recovered and repaired, or only suffered minor track damage. Thus a perceived 600-800 yearly losses may really be something like 400-600.

Also, a new video has showcased the mass use of Russian inflatable decoy tanks on the Zaporozhye frontline. So don't be surprised if Oryx and co. start adding "destroyed" inflatables to their database of real Russian 'losses'.

---

"Well, nortex, I hate reading that so it must just be ancient T-55's they are dusting off:". Sorry, no:

Quote:

---

The chart found the opposite correlation. Russian T-90s have skyrocketed from 3-4% to 24%, showing that T-90Ms are being fieldedand thus producedin increased quantities. T-55/T-62 not only had no appreciable gains, they seemed to decrease. There goes that narrative.

The only other notable change was Russian T-80s appeared to decrease drastically as share of losses, but it can be said to be cyclical as they previously decreased in April/May and then shot back up.

The important part is that there is no scientific basis for Russia fielding old T-62/T-55s and in fact Russia is verifiably fielding three times more T-90Ms than before.

For Ukraine it's the opposite. The only thing seen anymore are T-64s and older stuff. Few T-72s are seen and each time a new tiny injection of NATO tanks arrives, they are promptly obliterated:

The above are the Swedish modified variants of German Leopard 2A5s. A few of them were already destroyed in a single day the day before yesterday, which represented a huge chunk of all those received.

---

Anyway, more at the link, as always. Casualty numbers speculation, some excitement around what version of ATACMS etc. Ukraine is getting in limited numbers (60?), and the brutality (as well as desperation) of Ukraine's 'full mobilization/draft.'

I don’t know how else to put this, but all 🇺🇦 supporters have permanently lost their right to an opinion.

Canadian Parliament just honored Ukraine’s deep-rooted Nazi history.

Zelensky just hired the spirit-cooking satanic cannibalistic cultist lady…

The argument is over. pic.twitter.com/r86ewuXaux

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) September 26, 2023

Now, I think nazi's are people, and all people have a right to an opinion. I just can't take Uke supporters seriously at this point, or respect support for this regime, myself.

putin will never recover from this one https://t.co/4wjRrWyFkE

— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) September 25, 2023

Petulant propaganda.

Julian Assange on Western aid to Ukraine:
"The goal is to use Ukraine to launder dirty money from the US and Europe through Ukraine and back into the hands of the transnational elite." The goal is an endless war, not a successful war" pic.twitter.com/T3N5u58szs

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 25, 2023

Truth. Forever war, comrades!

---

So Putin could stop this by ending his invasion and leaving, right?

Or is Putin part of the group getting money laundered?

I don't think there is any reason to believe the Ukrainian side (including the Bidens/CCP/blackrock) really want this war to end no matter what.

Russian MoD released a photo of a claimed meeting today between Shoigu and military commanders, with Black Sea Fleet Admiral Sokolov participating (bottom on the left) and not dead as has been alleged

No way to verify the date of the photo though pic.twitter.com/tylaGRXaHc

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 26, 2023

I guess the Russian commander/admiral of their Black Sea fleet survived, despite the propaganda around his death in that building. Shocker the Ukrainians would lie about that.

Now, for propaganda from the other side, Pravda (literally) claims the WH has put out a 5 page letter with demands for reform from Ukraine as conditions required for further aid:

Quote:

---

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda's information, the letter was also sent to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the Office of the President of Ukraine.

The document outlines the necessary changes in order of priority: 0-3 months, 3-6 months, one year, and 18 months.

The reforms focus on the functioning of the Supervisory Boards of state-owned businesses, anti-corruption bodies (the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, National Agency for Corruption Prevention, etc.), the High Council of Justice, and the judiciary in general.
Changes in the work of Ukraine's Ministry of Defence and all law enforcement agencies are also listed as one-year priorities.

---

nortex97 said:

---

I don't think there is any reason to believe the Ukrainian side (including the Bidens/CCP/blackrock) really want this war to end no matter what.

Russian MoD released a photo of a claimed meeting today between Shoigu and military commanders, with Black Sea Fleet Admiral Sokolov participating (bottom on the left) and not dead as has been alleged

No way to verify the date of the photo though pic.twitter.com/tylaGRXaHc

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) September 26, 2023

I guess the Russian commander/admiral of their Black Sea fleet survived, despite the propaganda around his death in that building. Shocker the Ukrainians would lie about that.

Now, for propaganda from the other side, Pravda (literally) claims the WH has put out a 5 page letter with demands for reform from Ukraine as conditions required for further aid:

Quote:

---

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda's information, the letter was also sent to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the Office of the President of Ukraine.

The document outlines the necessary changes in order of priority: 0-3 months, 3-6 months, one year, and 18 months.

The reforms focus on the functioning of the Supervisory Boards of state-owned businesses, anti-corruption bodies (the Specialised Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, National Agency for Corruption Prevention, etc.), the High Council of Justice, and the judiciary in general.
Changes in the work of Ukraine's Ministry of Defence and all law enforcement agencies are also listed as one-year priorities.

---

---

Nice how you post a Xeet that uses Russian propaganda but qualifies that they can't verify the date and you use it as proof. And claiming the other information is propaganda.

Keep on keepin on...

Well, there's obviously a lot of propaganda for both sides, and the admiral/commander is pretty clearly not dead, and as well per Simplicius' updates I linked to this am plenty of fake news/propaganda the Ukes have put out about recent strikes in addition to legitimate ones. I am one of the folks willing to at least point out the lies on both sides when I see it, but…yes I am keepin' on keepin' on as they say.

Thx for your well wishes.

Here is some fresh perspective from a commenter on his site a bit ago today:

Quote:

---

A few points from a layman grunt infantryman. The declining Russian tank losses? The Russians have not been on offense since Bakhmut. Losses are always lower when you play defense. Which begs the question of if and when the Russians ever go on offense.

I have repeatedly said the insane and costly Ukrainian offense is a mistake. Men and material sacrificed when you are already vastly outnumbered. If the Ukes fell back to the Dnieper in many places? Fortified Odessa and Kharkiv and used their human shield tactics with the many Russian residents? Expensive and bloody. And the tables turn. The Ukes have minefields also. They have the ISR coverage of the Western AWACS over the Black Sea that the Russian have shown no inclination to strike. And of course, a shorter line allows you to concentrate forces.

Which brings me to my second point. Missiles and drones and intelligence are the future. The Russians are learning and even thru their equally corrupt (to Pentagon) MIC, they are making changes. The US learns nothing. With the lessons learned from this debacle I cannot even imagine they are thinking about fighting over Taiwan. The Chinese will be able to saturate ANY air defense we use for our carrier task groups. This carries over to tanks. With ISR there will never be a BIG ARROW OFFENSE against a peer opponent. You are a lot better off building smaller, cheaper, and faster tanks.

The future? The Ukrainians will be forced to resort to defense. And the Russians are rightly casualty adverse. And no big arrow offense fantasies. So that leaves the deep strikes. And so far, Russia has not shown the inclination to truly sink the knife and turn off the lights. You truly turn off the lights in Kiev and send a million or so refugees surging into Poland? Fun times then for the already strained Western countries. But again, Putin has not shown he will do that.

And maybe he does not want to. Maybe he wants a small festering cancer to continually degrade the western finances, military, and political system. The US election is a year off. Why pull a complete victory before that? European elections are approaching and discontent even for those sheep is growing. SO continual Russian improvement, continual Ukrainian degradation, and we will be talking about this at the end of 2024.

---

That strikes me as plausible, if a bit frustrating, as I could see the Russians (and their Chinese friends) agreeing this is a good 'strategy' from their perspective. But what do I know? Not too much, of course, it's all speculation at that level of politics…

Sam Ursu similarly with some comparatively first hand input that is interesting;

Quote:

---

A few comments:
1) Romania's slavishly pro-USA (and therefore pro-Ukrainian) government has done something rather tricky which has gone largely unnoticed. It has banned grain shipments coming DIRECTLY from Ukraine but not Ukrainian imports coming via Moldova. Moldova is officially neutral (but it's gov't is more slavishly pro-Ukrainian than anywhere outside the Baltics) and also uses the same Soviet gauge rail network, so a lot of Ukrainian grain is getting rail shipped across southern Moldova. At that point, however, it has to be offloaded onto trucks and then driven to Constanta (Romania's Black Sea port), which is already operating at max capacity. Furthermore, the Moldovan-Romanian border checkpoint (remember that Romania is in the EU and is desperate to get Schengen status, so the controls are quite strict) is heavily congested, further slowing down the flow of grain trucks. Long short story = the Ukrainians badly need a sea lane (hence all the naval drone stuff so ably covered in your report).

2) Around 1am on September 25 (Monday), a Ukrainian S300 missile hit the village of Kitskany (Chitcani) which is part of the territory of Pridnestrovie (aka "Transnistria"). Luckily, it landed in a guy's field and didn't hurt anyone or anything, but it was noted that the warhead had failed to explode. Since the PMR authorities are in control there, both video and photos of the missile were published (as well as some pretty humorous videos from the villager who discovered this giant smoking thing in his field). Despite this, Moldova's lunatic pro-Zelensky president declared it was a "Russian missile."

"Officially," PMR (and the village of Chitcani) is part of the territory of Moldova, so if you count PMR as Moldova, then this is the FIFTH time a Ukrainian AD missile has landed in Moldova. Except for one which landed in a forested area (and also didn't explode) and was discovered by villagers who took some pictures, the Moldovan government has refused to publish any images of the downed missiles and declared that ALL OF THEM were Russian missile despite the obvious absurdity.

I should note here that Moldova recently extended its state of emergency for another 60 days. Moldova has been under a "state of emergency" continuously for three years, originally due to Covid, but now on the flimsy pretext that the country is under threat from a Russian attack. If this last missile had hit inside Moldova (proper), it would've been immediately covered up as well.

As for why nobody seems to be mentioning the Chitcani attack, I cannot say. Even Russian channels have been largely quiet despite the fact that PMR media (which is all in Russian language) has been showing photos and video of it all day long on all their channels (including YouTube, Telegram and Tiktok).
Furthermore, all you have to do is pull up a map and see that Chitcani is nowhere close at all to the Ukrainian coast where Russian has been conducting strikes, so WTF happened here is quite a mystery.
Personal note - my wife goes to church in Chitcani every week (at the gorgeous Orthodox monastery of Noul Neamt), so this ****ing made me angry as hell.

2b) By my count, Ukraine has hit Moldova 5 times with missiles, Romania once (drone fragment that fell across the river from the Ukrainian port of Reni), Poland once with missiles (that killed two civilians and nearly set off WW3 last year), and weirdly enough, Croatia once (with a modified Soviet era drone). That's just the known stuff as two Romanian jets got downed early on in the war under mysterious circumstances. Yet good luck finding any news source mentioning all of THAT in one place or any attempt to hold Ukraine accountable for constantly endangering its allies.

3) Pretty safe to declare you're not Canadian LOL as the brouhaha over the Parliament giving a standing ovation to a literal Ukrainian Nazi from WW2 during Zelensky's address is the biggest story in the country right now. Oddly, after the West ignoring all of Ukraine's Nazi stuff for so long, this story is getting a ton of attention, and Jewish groups in Canada particularly are going ape***** Also saw Zelensky getting booed and jeered after his big gala dinner with Trudeau as well, so the tide is definitely turning against Ukraine in Canada at the moment.

4) The Hotel Odessa is a very tall building/landmark and within sight of much of the city, so if Ukraine really was dumb enough to use it to host troops/mercs and think no one would see/notice and pass the info onto Russia, then they must have rocks for brains because the entire city is full of pro-Russian supporters.

---

Reading Geopolitical Futures today and their update was on Russia's southern border with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. They hinted at the US potentially cozying up to Georgia as another bow in the quiver along with Ukraine support. They called such an concept "insane".

I pay for their information so I have nothing to link. At times they link outside sources and I will see if I can find one.

It was interesting and another thing to watch in this conflict.

Thanks again. It is scary I can believe that so easily being true. Hope not but damn. After Armenia so far….