If we go back to the maps, as mentioned I think Russia would generally be fine with current area and new border, and some lifting of sanctions and to also receive aid to rebuild new Russian territory.

Biden and Blinken will oblige.

nortex97 said:

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Blinken: Ukraine and the United States will negotiate with Russia

Ukraine is ready to negotiate with the Russian Federation if the Russian side makes such a proposal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken thinks so. According to him, the United States will support Kyiv by… pic.twitter.com/ct0QiCScqd

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 10, 2023

I wonder if this is an attempt to delay a Russian counter-attack.

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Never negotiate from your heels. After the offensive to the Sea of Azov failed to breach the Surovikin line and reports of 75-90% causalities for the UKR companies, it's pretty fuggin bleak.

I still think it's all about money. Russian oligarchs care about that too, and will be 'in' on any blackrock/US reconstruction plan, needless to say.

China's economy is hurting too, not just ours right now. This is a signal from Beijing, imho.

Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov, after his resignation, is already in Europe on a yacht. Apparently marks successful earnings. pic.twitter.com/GCmLgS9onY

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 10, 2023

War is a racket

That didn't take long.

I wonder if any guilt for the thousands he ordered (sometimes at gunpoint) to certain death crosses his mind while yachting.

nortex97 said:

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Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov, after his resignation, is already in Europe on a yacht. Apparently marks successful earnings. pic.twitter.com/GCmLgS9onY

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 10, 2023

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From the comments:

This is an old photo.
Not saying he isn't on a yacht though 😁 pic.twitter.com/KF0dh0boIh

— Scar Tissue (@prostotak182) September 10, 2023

Can't read what it says obviously but this guy seems confident it's from 2020.

If you can't trust randos on twitter saying things you want to hear, who can you trust?

J. Walter Weatherman said:

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nortex97 said:

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Former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov, after his resignation, is already in Europe on a yacht. Apparently marks successful earnings. pic.twitter.com/GCmLgS9onY

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 10, 2023

---

From the comments:

This is an old photo.
Not saying he isn't on a yacht though 😁 pic.twitter.com/KF0dh0boIh

— Scar Tissue (@prostotak182) September 10, 2023

Can't read what it says obviously but this guy seems confident it's from 2020.

---

Seems likely. Probably bought with the $1 billion Biden sent them to drop the Burisma investigation in order to protect his son.

Can someone update me on "spring offensive "

With as long as Ukraine has been documented to be corrupted, "thats from 2020" just doesn't work as a hall pass for inquisition.

But I am curious where he landed. Even more curious if we can't find him, because I was told that it is Russian, not Ukrainian generals that are "falling out of windows."

Whatever it may be, this definitely needs more digging.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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With as long as Ukraine has been documented to be corrupted, "thats from 2020" just doesn't work as a hall pass for inquisition.

But I am curious where he landed. Even more curious if we can't find him, because I was told that it is Russian, not Ukrainian generals that are "falling out of windows."

Whatever it may be, this definitely needs more digging.

---

Beginning to appear more and more Blinken and friends demanded the change. So likely this guy was trying to either do the right thing or expose some grifting, thus he needed to take a helicopter ride.

fka ftc said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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With as long as Ukraine has been documented to be corrupted, "thats from 2020" just doesn't work as a hall pass for inquisition.

But I am curious where he landed. Even more curious if we can't find him, because I was told that it is Russian, not Ukrainian generals that are "falling out of windows."

Whatever it may be, this definitely needs more digging.

---

Beginning to appear more and more Blinken and friends demanded the change. So likely this guy was trying to either do the right thing or expose some grifting, thus he needed to take a helicopter ride.

---

If Blinken is calling for change, I'm relatively certain we can assume that means Blinken's boss (Biden) received a call from Biden's boss (China) letting him know what they need to do next.

Of course, I may be proven wrong, but it appears this is where we're at

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

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I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

RebelE Infantry said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

---

I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

---

Russia has zero ability to go on the offensive. They can't end anyting.

GAC06 said:

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If you can't trust randos on twitter saying things you want to hear, who can you trust?

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Teslag said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

---

I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

---

Russia has zero ability to go on the offensive. They can't end anyting.

---

You say this with supreme confidence and yet provide very little, if any, corroboration.

Now you may very well be right, but have you considered that you might in fact be wrong?

RebelE Infantry said:

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Teslag said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

---

I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

---

Russia has zero ability to go on the offensive. They can't end anyting.

---

You say this with supreme confidence and yet provide very little, if any, corroboration.

Now you may very well be right, but have you considered that you might in fact be wrong?

---

From where I sit, Uke's largest supporter declaring "we're ready to talk peace" definitely insinuates that this take might be "freezing cold," as they say.

The situation is so fluid it is hard to know for sure, however.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Teslag said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

---

I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

---

Russia has zero ability to go on the offensive. They can't end anyting.

---

You say this with supreme confidence and yet provide very little, if any, corroboration.

Now you may very well be right, but have you considered that you might in fact be wrong?

---

In 18 months Russias only offensive success was with a mercenary unit that turned on them, was disbanded, and had their leader blown from the sky.

Russia needs to be the ones showing someone anything . Not me. So, what have you seen that's shows they can dictate anything to anyone?

Teslag said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Teslag said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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Hopefully this signals an imminent end to the carnage, even if only a temporary pause this has potential to mean good news is coming.

---

I am somewhat doubtful that Russia will have any interest in negotiations beyond dictating terms. They know for a fact that the US is an unreliable negotiator who will back out of any agreement on a whim. I don't think they'll fall for the Charlie Brown-Lucy football shtick again.

If Russian leadership feels that they can sustain this war and end it on their terms by achieving all of their objectives, I don't see them seriously negotiating just to settle for less.

---

Russia has zero ability to go on the offensive. They can't end anyting.

---

You say this with supreme confidence and yet provide very little, if any, corroboration.

Now you may very well be right, but have you considered that you might in fact be wrong?

---

In 18 months Russias only offensive success was with a mercenary unit that turned on them, was disbanded, and had their leader blown from the sky.

Russia needs to be the ones showing someone anything . Not me. So, what have you seen that's shows they can dictate anything to anyone?

---

Why would Russia go on the offensive when they are fighting a war of attrition? They have established 3 lines of defense, each stronger than the previous with mines throughout. As long as Ukraine continues feeding resources into these heavily defended areas, there is no need to mount an offense.

And your definition of winning being "as long as Ukraine exists" is understandable, but by that definition the Republic of China won their war against the CCP by maintaining Taiwan.

Russia fighting war of attrition against a better supplied adversary with better weapons seems like a really great idea. Russia needs offensive capability and they have none.


It's no longer 1943.

Teslag said:

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It's no longer 1943.

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The videos from the trenches sure look similar.

To what?

“The Ukrainian counteroffensive is at a dead end. The West must prepare for humiliation" - The Sunday Telegraph

Retired British colonel Richard Kemp writes: “Time is running out for Ukraine. After 18 months of war, the question is no longer whether the Western alliance will… pic.twitter.com/Hz2Gc6VhQK

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) September 10, 2023

Blinken went to Kiev for two days to break the news to Elensky, super duper offensive failed, negotiations have to start.

Blinken is now making the rounds on MSM, putting together the story that will be sold to the masses, as the US dumps project Ukraine, framing defeat as… pic.twitter.com/soRq7cWgIS

— Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) September 11, 2023

What! pic.twitter.com/puuldcuktz

— Ann Mcilvenna (@mcilvenna_ann) September 10, 2023

Cross-post from Telegram because my man @finntrasan asked for my detailed thoughts on the matter:

Let's look at the data points we have showing Ukrainian KIA in the 200-400,000 range.
- Population surveys
- Obituary counts on social media
- Cemetery construction
-… pic.twitter.com/bgidqLJbMR

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) September 10, 2023

The upper end there, 400K, would match our KIA figures for WW2.

10/09/2023 Director of Uralvagonzavod said today that it will restart production of the t-80 tank from the start.

source: https://t.co/hdzFOrk7cN pic.twitter.com/vsudwT0BZi

— Posmatrac Istorije (@Posmatrac22) September 10, 2023

Interesting if true. They are supposedly going to re-start T-80 production, while also producing T-14's and T-90's now. This is their primary 'new' tank manufacturer.

Ukraine investigates Reuters.

A very good article over at RCD touching on the issue of 'what is victory' and 'victory at what cost?'. Excerpt:

Quote:

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The question of loss of and injury to human life is deeply relevant to the political decision of how to approach the conflict. No war is ever fought to the last life as wars become more costly, leaders influenced by their publics revisit the alternatives to war. Since spring of 2022, the Ukrainian and Western goal has been full recovery of occupied land, including Crimea, but this goal must be measured against the human cost. It is wrong to destroy a village in order to save it, as we have learned. How many hundreds of thousands would be too many? As we are already seeing Western media in various quarters start to do -- even NATOs head -- great suffering and little gain leads to reflection. Ignoring wars direct toll not to mention the tens of millions of new food insecure people worldwide dulls our instinct to seek other ways forward.

And it could get far worse. It is irresponsible how assurances from media and politicians promise that Putin wont use nuclear weapons. The U.S. used the threat of nuclear war against China to freeze the conflict in the Korean War. China knew we may not be bluffing: general MacArthur lionized in U.S. textbooks said hed have dropped "30 or so atomic bombs… strung across the neck of Manchuria." In a war that claimed only 140,000 or so U.S. dead and wounded, a top general wanted to kill millions of Chinese people with nuclear bombs. While U.S. media give the impression Russian nuclear blackmail is without precedent, the U.S. notably even refused to rule out using nuclear weapons *offensively* against Saddam Husseins Iraq, just 20 years ago, should he use chemical weapons against us. Russias threats are criminal and U.S. nuclear blackmail does not excuse them. But it does show they could be earnest.

A variety of historians, journalists and foreign policy specialists, and politicians left-wing and right-wing have pushed for taking a realistic look at the range of possibilities in this conflict. With an eye on the human cost for Ukrainians built into continuing the fight, global publics might be more readily persuaded to view cease-fire as the least-bad option. Of course, if there is no possibility for ceasefire or for diplomatic action, naming the death toll is only defeatist and depressing. And it could be Ukraine will achieve a dramatic breakthrough and recapture at least Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, saving millions from a brutal to even quasi-genocidal rule. But if the war continues until winter with no major shift, tens or hundreds of thousands of lives could hang in the balance. Regardless, there is benefit for all sides in freezing the conflict. As the attempted coup this summer showed, the war is highly risky for Putin, who contends with economic anxiety and a public and elites who can effectively no longer travel or take initiative in private enterprise: as energy and commodity prices go, so go their jobs and fates. The war is nowhere near as bad for Russians as for Ukrainians, but it is a disaster.

While a thaw in Russia-Ukraine relations could not be expected after freezing the conflict, there would still be substantial diplomatic work to do. Re-opening the world to the Russian economy could be linked to Russias releasing its numerous captive Ukrainians. Regionally, countries need to work together to fairly resolve the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, where the historic Russian-inclined bent of Armenian politics is leading to starvation for over a hundred thousand people. And above all, enormous civil society work is needed to support Ukraine. After World War II, the U.S. helped end a pattern of generationally recurring violence in Western Europe, not only with the Marshall Plan but also with new institutions of exchange and friendship that continue today, with hundreds of thousands of exchange students going both ways and deep civil society engagement. It was a significant error to not cultivate that same level of friendship in Eastern Europe after 1990. Now there will be a new chance in Ukraine. It was also a catastrophic mistake to build the European economy on Russian energy exports, which funded half of the Russian state budget and military. An urgent climate response is also a strong policy response to petro-dictatorship.

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Teslag said:

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Quote:

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They are supposedly going to re-start T-80 production, while also producing T-14's and T-90's now.

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Now? What happened to the 200 tanks per month for the past year?

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How does this comment further discussion? Nortex provides insights and various tweets / links where you can go to the source information and make your own determination. Instead, its just always making facetious quips about stacking bodies and where are the 100 tanks and its not WW2 anymore nonsense.

Is Russia re-starting T-80 production while also producing T-14s and T-90's? If so, then the information appears correct. If not, provide sources indicating as such.

Because we were told that Russia was producing 100 to 200 tanks per month a few months ago. Now we are told they are starting production. There's a glaring disconnect there. Just like when we were told the offensive wouldn't happen. Then it was mythical, then it was a failure, then its gains were small, then it breaching their main defense was too late, to it now being over I think?

The point is, following up on complete misses if vital to discussion because it calls for additional questioning on subsequent information.

🇺🇦🤡 “There will be no happy ending,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in an interview with CNN.

“We all want us to have success and a happy ending. But this is not a film with a happy ending, we will not have a happy ending, we have… pic.twitter.com/JWfPLATy3i

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 11, 2023

This effing guy….more from that interview:

🇺🇦🤡 Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest dose of copium from his interview with the Economist.

- Ahead of elections in the West, and especially in the United States, “Zelensky knows that maintaining aid will be difficult, especially in the absence of significant progress on the front.”… pic.twitter.com/ZBDe2JU4dt

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) September 11, 2023

Caution, NSFW language, but this is too funny not to share:

My thoughts on Elon Musk's decision to deactivate Starlink's satellite network amidst Ukrainian conflict: pic.twitter.com/13iW14aTwX

— Damon Imani (@damonimani) September 10, 2023

Teslag said:

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Because we were told that Russia was producing 100 to 200 tanks per month a few months ago. Now we are told they are starting production. There's a glaring disconnect there. Just like when we were told the offensive wouldn't happen. Then it was mythical, then it was a failure, then its gains were small, then it breaching their main defense was too late, to it now being over I think?

The point is, following up on complete misses if vital to discussion because it calls for additional questioning on subsequent information.

---

But nortex provides information not potshots. That's the difference.

fka ftc said:

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Teslag said:

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Because we were told that Russia was producing 100 to 200 tanks per month a few months ago. Now we are told they are starting production. There's a glaring disconnect there. Just like when we were told the offensive wouldn't happen. Then it was mythical, then it was a failure, then its gains were small, then it breaching their main defense was too late, to it now being over I think?

The point is, following up on complete misses if vital to discussion because it calls for additional questioning on subsequent information.

---

But nortex provides information not potshots. That's the difference.

---

Dude, I don't engage with him for a reason. Just…not…worth…it. Can't have a discussion with someone who just distorts what you state over and over.

Obviously, new-build T-80's is a change. I'm surprised by that. And it would be in addition to the refurbished/new build others that have been around 70 a month for a while now. Or, it could be because they are out of old T-80's so are just building them new again, I dunno. Apparently some moderate changes/improvements vs. the previous rebuild standard. Ultimately, both sides have (and lose) plenty of armor, imho.

I don't keep up with specific tank stuff as it's not real interesting to me, but I know there was some corruption/issues around the T-14 model and they've arrested/prosecuted some folks involved with that (stealing from the Russian government around tanks seems like a dumb idea, but nothing surprises me anymore around corruption in Ukraine/Russia.)

Quote:

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that have been around 70 a month for a while now

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According to who?

Looks like Azerbaijan and Armenia tensions continue to escalate and it looks like true conflict is imminent.

Turkey is looking to assert itself as a regional leader prepared to tell the EU to finally ****-off and instead aligning itself with other non-EU states in the region.

Much of the overall instability is driven by the ongoing Ukraine conflict and the more we support Ukraine the more we effectively destabilize the region - to the point where we either really have to get involved or (my preferred option) just exit the region entirely and let those *******s figure their own stuff out.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/09/10/russia-might-restart-production-of-the-t-80-tank-dont-expect-it-to-happen-soon/?sh=53b15b3e8014

Quote:

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Be skeptical. Uralvagonzavod's factory in Omsk, in Siberia, hasn't manufactured a new T-80 hull since 1991. And while the Omsk factory might still have the 32-year-old tooling, what it probably doesn't have is suppliers for the tens of thousands of parts it would need to assemble a new T-80.

It's clear why the Kremlin ostensibly would order Uralvagonzavod to restart production of the 46-ton, three-person T-80 with its 125-millimeter main gun. In its 19-month wider war on Ukraine, Russia has lost around 2,000 tanksnearly half as many tanks as Russian forces had in front-line service in early 2022.

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Just remember that anything regarding Russian tank production is usually always Russian Twitter fan fiction

The outcome of the Erdogan-Putin meeting was largely a stiff arm to Turkey. They are in a horrible spot in terms of inflation/energy (they had subsidized it enormously pre-Bidenflation) and I think his little azov commander return show ticked the Russians off more than he thought. They've sort of been in an 'in between' zone since at least Byzantine times so it's not real surprising to see him struggling to play both sides.

Russians just absolutely demoralized and low on supplies due to the Uke advances according to conservative Fox News.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/intercepted-phone-calls-reveal-russian-frontline-troops-complaining-heavy-losses-poor-supplies.amp

Quote:

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"They are f---ing us up," one soldier, Andrey, told his wife on July 12, according to Reuters. "No f---ing ammunition, nothing.... Shall we use our fingers as bayonets?"

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Quote:

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"We're like beggars. It's like 1941 with one rifle between five soldiers. Nothing's changed," he added.

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Quote:

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"They were torn apart. They're lying there: they can't even collect some of them. They're already rotten eaten by worms," he told his mother on July 12.

"Really?" she replied.

"Just imagine, thrown on the front line with no equipment, nothing," her son continued.

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Russian can barely play defense. They have no weapons or equipment. They are unable to produce any new tanks. Just no offensive capabilities at this point.

Literally their only effective strategy for this war is now mines, trenches, and Iranian drones.