Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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Teslag
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 7:31p, 8/7/23
AG
Sorry my bad. Everyone but Russia and a few on this thread.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to Teslag • 7:43p, 8/7/23
AG
Teslag said:
Sorry my bad. Everyone but Russia and a few on this thread.


I'll be your huckleberry, Tesla.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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fka ftc
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:57p, 8/7/23
Appreciate your continued posts as well.

For people that love to rail about this propaganda and that propaganda, as you and others have pointed out it exists on both sides.

Particularly interesting are the posters from all sides calling out the other. In the US, we had "When you ride alone, rou ride with Hitler! Join a ride-sharing program today!". No jeez, where have we heard propaganda like that recently??? Masks? Vaccines?

So its not out of line to accept all US based reporting as heavily tinted pro-Uke and its acceptable to doubt Russian state media.

What is not acceptable to me, is one side always shouting propaganda when both sides engage in it heavily. Believe that was actually the point of this thread. To have a two sided discussion.
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Teslag
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In reply to fka ftc • 11:10p, 8/7/23
AG
And many of us will take issue with, and continue to call obvious Russian state sponsored propaganda for what it is. And no one should ever put it on an equal plane with any other journalism, be it left or right. There are plenty of objective and legit anti-Ukrainian aid advocates in this country to get an honest assessment from without having to resort to placing any measure of trust in one of the most brutal, unfeeling, and characteristically evil governments on earth.
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nortex97
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In reply to fka ftc • 5:28a, 8/8/23
AG
It's really doubly ironic that the Democrats, and our 'very fine' people at the FBI for instance, have worked for years for Russian oligarchs, including to censor/produce a narrative on their behalf, around Ukraine. Russia, Russia Russia is to a large degree a business partner, and ally of our White House, as is the CCP in matters ranging from he war in Ukraine to energy policy/inflation.

It was HRC who procured the "Steele dossier' of lies about Russian ties to Trump, the FBI who propped it up to create a false impeachment narrative, and "Honest Bob" Mueller's team at DoJ as special counsel who fanned the flames for years about Russia. Vindman ('oh say can you see,' Ukraine) and Ciaramella helped in their own ways of course, separately involving Ukraine/Nuland etc. But all of that required immense propaganda in the American media to convince the, ahem, dim witted among our public as to their veracity/truthfulness. Propaganda? LOL, that's practically all we have:





See, Russians aren't even human!

War is brutal, and Kiev is being struck in their Eastern cities more and more, unfortunately. Some of this is inevitable as the Russians have to convince the Ukrainian people to rise up and force their government to sue for peace, I guess. The Ukrainian 'elite' (oligarchs) are certainly not endearing themselves long term to their allies nearby. Lies about peace discussions/requirements persist.

Interestingly, China and the global south seem to get that it isn't about some barren towns like Bakhmut or the Donbas:

Quote:
It also seems to have done a solid job convincing the Global South that the war is about much more than the invasion of Ukraine.
Quote:
"The consensus is that this isn't a European war, but has impact on food, energy and economic stability globally and that it will take everyone on board to get to the final outcome of a settlement," said a diplomat from one of the non-Western countries.
Unlike the last conference in Copenhagen, Zelensky faced no pressure to drop his plan; in particular, there was broad consensus that withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine was necessary. China has expressed a strong interest in continuing the talks.
Meh, I think Newsweek was essentially right in this essay last week: nobody is entitled to their own facts about the war in Ukraine: 12

Quote:
Like the war in Iraq, this is war of choice for the United States. No one is attacking a NATO member. As we were once told that Saddam Hussein was busy building an nuclear bomb, we are now warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to invade Poland. Neither claim ever had any basis in reality. Like the war in Afghanistan, this is another "forever war" with taxpayers being asked to spend ever-growing sums for "as long as it takes."

Yet just how long that might be or what we are hoping to achieve is never clearly stated.
Instead, those endorsing this war seem to posses a geopolitical vision that is inconsistent with the facts and does not consider the high costs or grave risks the Western alliance is assuming in return for little or no gain. Moreover, they appear to accept the dubious proposition that American and Ukrainian interests are identical and that the United States should have no say in how a war it has enabled ends.
Meanwhile, Victoria Nuland…



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nortex97
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6:06a, 8/8/23
AG
"Sanctions are working to cripple Russia's military production."

"Russia is running out of tanks."

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fka ftc
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:25a, 8/8/23
Most folks ultimately the truth lies somewhere in the middle and is usually only fully learned years and years later.

Eternal conflicts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and much of Africa are the results of centuries of warfare, tribalism, nomadic behavior (for some, not all) and a strong preference for cultural allegiance vs allegiance to "country". The successive boundary drawings by Russia, Western Europe and the US made this much, much worse by drawing boundaries and demanding those boundaries be respected by people who were pushed in with "tribes" they have never got along with.

Russia continues to sit on an incredibly vast and deep wealth of resources and facing a global environment who increasingly demand those resources and a global political environment disastrously weakened by 8 years of Obama and now 2+ years of Biden.

[Everyone on this thread needs to work to bring the temperature down in your engagements. There are a lot of good points being made by various users on different sides of the argument that are then ending their posts with swipes of various kinds at other users, either outright or by implication. This needs to stop. Stick to arguing and counterarguing information. Alot of interesting posts on here will just get completely pulled down if everyone can't simply make their case without implying negative things about the users you are addressing. Keep it civil. This is an interesting topic, but we will just pull this entire thread down if users can't respect each other as they discuss this topic. -Staff]
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fka ftc
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8:54a, 8/8/23
It may seem obvious at this point, but gauging how this conflict is going / progressing is much yes about territory gains / losses along with Russia tank production and much more about strategic alliances (and divides) in global politics and global supply chain.

India continues to grow, modernize requiring resources but primarily oil. It needs to maintain its defense forces to keep the Pakis at bay but with a predominance of Russian military equipment it has a built in dependency on Russia based on that and oil.

Africa, as mentioned over and over on Uke threads, has a dependency on grain mostly from Ukraine. Russia can try and control territory in Ukraine or simply continue to strategically disrupt and aggravate the supply chain. Putin's hubris may even lead him to sabotage the crops / fertile ground. This keeps the West from pushing too hard and backing the Bear into a corner.

China wants nothing more than to stick a thorny pine branch up the backside of the United States and will continue to be an agitator, supplier and essentially a flat out ally to Russia.

But the single biggest threat to Ukraine remains the absolute joke of a POTUS we have in Biden. Zero indication he will make this situation better, in fact, mountains of experience and evidence saying he will FUBAR it.
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nortex97
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In reply to fka ftc • 9:07a, 8/8/23
AG
Quote:
China wants nothing more than to stick a thorny pine branch up the backside of the United States and will continue to be an agitator, supplier and essentially a flat out ally to Russia.

But the single biggest threat to Ukraine remains the absolute joke of a POTUS we have in Biden. Zero indication he will make this situation better, in fact, mountains of experience and evidence saying he will FUBAR it.
The Sino-Russian alliance is very real, and the biggest factor here, in conjunction with our Manchurian president, who is obviously a traitor. Squishes like Mike Pence noted how China benefits from all of his policy actions over two years ago, before the details of the Bidens money laundering operations became more widely known this year.

Further, even the most pro-Euro analysts see big ramifications to that.

Destabilizing further the African food supplies from Ukraine doesn't hurt Chinese interests/relationships in Africa, imho, and is part of a bigger plan/operation.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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11:48a, 8/8/23
nortex97
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12:48p, 8/8/23
AG


Newsweek almost got there, LOL, but it's the Chinese that have it, not the Ukrainians. So close, for an MSM journalist team.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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6:41p, 8/8/23
AG
A big guy speaks

I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 7:07p, 8/8/23
AG
He's such a clown, I have no idea what he thinks he is doing. I think I have a better shot at being the GOP nominee in 2024.

All of this, of course, is quite an old battle, in the Donbas/Crimea/Ukraine as it sits today. I'm not convinced Chris Christie has any conception/concern for any of the actual direct parties/people involved who are being used as canon fodder, let alone an understanding of who/why they are being ordered into battle.



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nortex97
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6:40a, 8/10/23
AG
Z vows to go after corruption in Ukraine:

Quote:
In a Tuesday video address, Zelensky said that he wanted to "cleanse" Ukraine, which he said needs to undergo a transformation. "This means that those who work for their own benefit, not for the sake of Ukraine, will not hold public office or be Ukrainian MPs," he stated, adding that "any such dealmaker will at least stand trial."

The Ukrainian president also raised the issue of corruption last week when he vowed to continue efforts to kick officials out of public institutions who "tried to drag from the past old habits, old schemes that have weakened Ukraine… for decades."

"No matter, who this person is whether he is a 'military commissar', a deputy, or an official everyone must work only for the sake of the state," Zelensky stressed, saying efforts toward that end would begin as early as this month.
[url=https://www.rt.com/russia/580843-zelenksy-condemns-corrupt-ukraine-recruiting-centers/][/url]
By mentioning commissars, the Ukrainian leader was apparently alluding to a recent controversy in which authorities conducted raids in 11 Ukrainian regions and uncovered a massive conspiracy scheme that allegedly focused on issuing fraudulent medical certificates at the price of around $6,000 to those seeking to avoid conscription.

The searches came after Ukrainian law enforcement agents arrested Evgeny Borisov, a former senior conscription officer in Odessa Region, who has been accused of illicit enrichment to the tune of millions of dollars.


So, they are clearly scraping the barrel of manpower to now move to forcibly conscript 16 year olds. So much of that narrative "the Ukrainians just want to fight for their own freedom" is 100 percent wrong.



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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:59a, 8/10/23
nortex97 said:


So, they are clearly scraping the barrel of manpower to now move to forcibly conscript 16 year olds. So much of that narrative "the Ukrainians just want to fight for their own freedom" is 100 percent wrong.
]


As usual, a quick google shows that sensationalist headline is sensationalist and the proposed law has nothing to do with getting them to fight. They are free to leave, just have to have a guardian with them. Probably better than getting forcibly kidnapped and taken to Eastern Russia like thousands of other Ukrainian children though.

And, speaking of countries forcibly conscripting citizens though, strange you forgot to mention Russia raising its military conscription age eligibility. Seems like not everyone is willing to die for Putin's pointless and unprovoked invasion.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-extends-eligibility-military-call-up-by-least-five-years-2023-07-18/
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nortex97
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In reply to J. Walter Weatherman • 7:10a, 8/10/23
AG
You're more than welcome to believe whatever narrative you wish, weatherman but I have already documented repeatedly the Russians have had no problem reaching their monthly recruiting/growth numbers for the military.

The question is how/when they will employ the new manpower/units/reserves, and how overwhelming their drones/UCAV's etc. are going to be to remaining UFA air defenses (and artillery/depots).

They are shifting to a limited offensive, it seems clear.



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fka ftc
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9:28a, 8/10/23
I continue to think things are about to get a lot spicier over there.

Putin knows Biden is starting to get his nuts fed into the grinder and has a decision to make. Provoke a higher level of conflict in Ukraine at the risk Biden escalates to distract from the Biden Crime Family news...

or push things to make Z more desperate leading to Z threatening Biden with exposure of their dealings knowing if Z follows through then the US is permanently out of the conflict and not only does get Ukraine, he probably gets back 50% or more of the former Soviet Union in short order.

Biden has royally ****ed this all up as expected. And we have wasted billions more and depleted stockpiles with no good plan to replenish.
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nortex97
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In reply to fka ftc • 9:41a, 8/10/23
AG
Part of the issue is it is not just 'over there.' It's all over lot's of places.

Niger, South America, Pakistan, to name a few.







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fka ftc
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:49a, 8/10/23
You left out new / renewed relation with Egypt and... Serbia! What more good news will Biden's foreign policy bring?

https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/4478146-egypt-serbia-discuss-ways-strengthening-military-cooperation

Quote:
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi asserted on Tuesday his country's keenness on strengthening cooperation with Serbia in various domains, especially in defense.

He said Egypt is looking forward to activating partnership between the two countries, highlighting the deep historic ties between them.

-snip-

He commended Egypt's growing and effective role on the regional and international levels.

According to Egypt's presidential spokesman Ahmed Fahmy the meeting tackled means of enhancing bilateral cooperation in the military and security fields.

The officials also reviewed a host of international issues of mutual concern, especially the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its geopolitical and economic repercussions.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:54a, 8/10/23
AG
Quote:
So, they are clearly scraping the barrel of manpower to now move to forcibly conscript 16 year olds. So much of that narrative "the Ukrainians just want to fight for their own freedom" is 100 percent wrong.


You came to this conclusion over one single unsourced tweet and then when presented with the actual law you still hold fast?
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:57a, 8/10/23
AG
Quote:
Russians have had no problem reaching their monthly recruiting/growth numbers for the military.


https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/russia-army-adverts-kazakhstan-appear-online-ukraine-war/amp/

So well in fact they are having to beg Kazaks to fight with bonuses
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Krombopulos Michael
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:21a, 8/10/23
nortex97 said:


Newsweek almost got there, LOL, but it's the Chinese that have it, not the Ukrainians. So close, for an MSM journalist team.
the answer is yes.....

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nortex97
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In reply to Teslag • 10:29a, 8/10/23
AG
Teslag said:
Quote:
Russians have had no problem reaching their monthly recruiting/growth numbers for the military.


https://fortune.com/2023/08/04/russia-army-adverts-kazakhstan-appear-online-ukraine-war/amp/

So well in fact they are having to beg Kazaks to fight with bonuses
The Russian army is one of the best paid in the world, no doubt, not real sure what your point is, as usual. We offer lots of bonuses too (up to $50K??!!), for enlistments, and are very short of the recruiting number, again, under Xiden/Milley et al. I find their recruitment strategy targeting minorities pretty gross, but whatever.

Shoigu/Russians have reported great success hitting their monthly goals, as documented thoroughly by Simplicius over the past few months, and you are welcome to go read it/dispute/ignore it at your leisure. I've linked to his substack many times in this thread, it has good analyses often, though the most recent one about Russian digital currency/Soros/WEF stuff I think is not real good/interesting compared to much of the other stuff.

Anyway, it will be interesting to learn what America's "plan B" is once/if we regain some semblance of competent/non-treasonous leadership again some day:

Quote:
The Ukraine War had a long gestation period as part of the US Plan A, with an "Orange Revolution" in 2004 and alternating regime changes between those leaning toward the US and those leaning toward Russia. The Ukraine government prior to 2014 had chosen a more beneficial economic package from the East (China & Russia) over the offering from the West (US & EU). China wanted access to the vast grain production regions in Ukraine and Russia wanted to continue historic business and trade relations. After the 2014 regime change, Ukraine dropped the agreement with the East and turned to the West. The grain fields were switched from China to US financial interests. Many factories in Ukraine that had been part of the Russian supply chain lost their business and were no longer viable.

The 2022 grain deal by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN illustrates the complex situation. The deal was sold to the UN on the basis that Ukrainian grain was needed to prevent starvation in the poor counties of the world. However, most of the grain went to China and NATO countries. The poor countries got less than three percent. And most of the money proceeds from the sale of the grain reportedly went to a large US financial investor in Ukrainian farmland. Furthermore, the West did not live up to its end of the bargainrefusing to implement the part of the deal that would have lifted some sanctions so that Russia could export fertilizer. Once again, the West proved to be "not agreement-capable" from the Russian viewpoint.

Russian cancellation of the grain deal managed to annoy both China and NATO countries. However, Russia said it would provide replacement grain to the poor countries free of charge. Following the Ukrainian July 2023 attack on the Kerch Bridge, Russia basically blocked the Ukrainian ports, told all ships to stay clear, and bombed the port facilities. The damage is apparently severe and will obstruct grain exports for some time.

Despite US efforts, the Ukraine War is not following the original script for Plan A. The Ukraine army is not making headway against the Russian defenses and is losing large numbers of soldiers and weapons. The US failed to make allowances for the need to have an extensive factory backup to produce very large amounts of weapons and ammunition. The West is unable to produce enough replacement weapons or ammunition. Plan A failed to adequately consider the requirements of industrial warfare. The NATO meeting in Vilnius was a disaster from the standpoint of Ukraine. NATO basically told Ukraine that it could not join NATO until after Ukraine won the war, and that Ukraine needed to win soon because the NATO funding and support for the war will likely run out at the end of 2023. This essentially means that Ukraine will lose the war and not join NATO. An explanation of the US hesitancy in sending more advanced weapon support to Ukraine can be found in the Biden & Co. announcements that the US does not want a war with Russia. However, another reason is that the US does not want its more advanced weapons to be blown up or captured by Russia.

US Plan A contained a second component in addition to that of industrial warfare, which could generally be called financial warfare. This entailed the well-known sanctions efforts against Russia, trying to prevent Russia from using the US credit card systems, the SWIFT money transfer system, and other such financial systems. The US & EU also prevented Russian commercial plane flights to Europe and America, prevented export of critical materials and technology to Russia, harassed Russian businesses, and tried to confiscate some $300 billion of Russian assets.

Unfortunately for the US, neither the industrial nor the financial warfare has had the desired or expected impact. The US is losing its proxy war in Ukraine, the US weapons appear to be inferior compared to the Russian ones, and the US factories cannot cope with industrial warfare. Videos show the Western weapons burning upwhich does not help sales of US & EU weapons to the Global South. As for financial warfare, Russia has developed alternative systems to replace the Western ones, and conducted a massive import substitution program. Contrary to expectations, the sanctions have had perverse impacts and actually benefited Russia. The Global South is becoming leery of holding assets in the West, or being too dependent on Western imports or systems. There is a world-wide movement toward de-dollarization. It looks like the US Plan A is now failing on both the industrial and financial warfare fronts.

Plan B

There is little evidence that the US had a Plan B. There should have been a sophisticated analysis of potential blow-backs, side-effects, boomerangs, and possible outright failures of Plan A. Something similar to an Environmental Impact Statement should have been prepared. A "Conflict Impact Statement" would have analyzed alternatives to the proposed action, as well as the potential side-effects of each alternative. It is unclear whether anything like this was produced. However, it is unlikely that many American politicians, steeped in exceptionalism and hubris, would have considered a backup plan necessary or desirable.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:41a, 8/10/23
AG
Quote:

Shoigu/Russians have reported great success hitting their monthly goals,


Do you expect them to say any different? Have you independently verified this claim?
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:45a, 8/10/23
AG
In addition, according to our last SRIP and ADIP our large bonuses aren't for traditional combat arms.it's for medical, signal, and some specialized SOCOM MOS. Out combat arms recruiting is fine, with bonuses few and far between.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:00a, 8/10/23
AG
To put it another way, the "well paid" Russian military is having to impress prisoners and mercs, and offer bonuses to remote villagers to be put in a meat grinder with rusted weapons. We are offering bonuses to high school students with two years of college math so they can enlist for a year of training to be highly qualified in an an allied health field such as biomedical technician services, radiology, nursing, lab tech, etc.


There's no comparison here.
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GAC06
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In reply to Teslag • 11:19a, 8/10/23
AG
Yeah but the war has clearly proved that Russian equipment is better than Western equipment. And the sanctions are so good for Russia, they keep demanding they get lifted.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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12:25p, 8/10/23
AG
So now we have a mandatory evacuation due to a Russian what? Just shelling or is it some kind of counter-counteroffensive?
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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Teslag
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 1:21p, 8/10/23
AG
PlaneCrashGuy said:
So now we have a mandatory evacuation due to a Russian what? Just shelling or is it some kind of counter-counteroffensive?


Probably just good old fashioned genocidal war crimes we've seen time and time again from the Russians
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nortex97
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2:28p, 8/10/23
AG


Sacrificing people in a proxy is not cheap.
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Teslag
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:45p, 8/10/23
AG
There are 123 million households in the United States. So 900 x 123,000,000 = $110 Billion. That's the total amount of aid we have given, which is mostly the book value of existing weapons and training/support for those weapons. Only about 20 or so billion of that is direct financial assistance in the form of grants and loans.


So basically it's just another lazy gotcha headline that lacks any real effort at objective clarity. Carry on.
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fka ftc
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In reply to Teslag • 3:03p, 8/10/23
Teslag said:
There are 123 million households in the United States. So 900 x 123,000,000 = $110 Billion. That's the total amount of aid we have given, which is mostly the book value of existing weapons and training/support for those weapons. Only about 20 or so billion of that is direct financial assistance in the form of grants and loans.


So basically it's just another lazy gotcha headline that lacks any real effort at objective clarity. Carry on.
Let's put this in a real perspective, especially for Texans.

That $20 billion is about 4 times what Texas received from the Federal Gov following Hurricane Harvey.

4 times! To bring it truly home for folks its roughly 20X what has been spent on direct housing assistance which has rebuilt or rehabilitated close to 6000 homes along the Texas coast.

4x would have provide 18,000 Texas households with a new, safe, energy-efficient, structurally sound new home designed to exceed all current building standards and be well above the current flood maps. If we took all $20 billion then the we could have provided 114,000 new homes.

So you could cheer endless wars, giving weapons to a country who extorts from us to fight against a country that was seen as friendly in the Obama admin, money to make the Great Z rich...

Or you could spend it helping your neighbors right here in Texas who continue to need help.



Its an easy choice for what I can get behind.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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3:10p, 8/10/23
AG
Tesla, are you omitting opportunity cost from your accounting because you don't understand it, or because acknowledging it would defeat your attempt at hand waving away 20B's? Why do you so brazenly omit something so basic?
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
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Teslag
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In reply to fka ftc • 3:11p, 8/10/23
AG
The federal government shouldn't be subsidizing people's choice to live near the coast. They should be providing money for defense, which includes the weakening and destabilization of one of our greatest enemies.
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fka ftc
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In reply to Teslag • 3:14p, 8/10/23
Teslag said:
The federal government shouldn't be subsidizing people's choice to live near the coast. They should be providing money for defense, which includes the weakening and destabilization of one of our greatest enemies.
I take it you didn't watch the video.

Have you ever been to Houston? There is a lot of industry permanently based there including refineries, manufacturing, and the Port of Houston to name a few. Guess we should pack it all up and move it to,,, where? Coast is out. Rivers flood. Ground shakes. Wind blows.

On full display in your post above is the utter lack of seriousness in this discussion, which I have suspected all along but is evident in the non-serious, facetious reply saying these people's lives, my fellow Texans, my neighbors, my family matter less to you than killing Russians.

What a take. Wow.
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