Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

477,308 Views | 9113 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by nortex97
nortex97
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This piece on how China now benefits from the Xiden war over Ukraine and the Donbas joining Nato is interesting given some of the posts yesterday here/other threads (I can't remember which one):

Quote:

How Beijing benefits now

Today, it's a different story, but China nonetheless stands to benefit. A protracted war of attrition in Ukraine serves Beijing's interests in that it will lead to the long-term weakening of Russia, thereby fundamentally shifting the Sino-Russian power balance decisively in China's favor for years to come. China is also benefitting from cheap Russian energy, which is supporting its economy and improving China's competitive position in world markets. Measured by value, Russia's pipeline gas exports to China increased two-and-a-half times in 2022, while its liquefied natural gas exports to China more than doubled. Last year China also increased its volumes of Russian coal by 20 percent.

In addition to energy, China stands to benefits from the realignment of Russia's priorities caused by its invasion of Ukraine in the area of military modernization. The biggest prize over the horizon for Beijing is negotiating with Moscow for access to its advanced military technology, especially attack submarine propulsion systems, where China is significantly behind Russia and the West. This also applies to several other Russian weapon systems, including hypersonic missile technology, whereby the past three decades of access to Western technology have allowed Moscow to build upon and improve Soviet-era systems.

Much of the debate across the West today concerns the end state in Ukraine, but very little about potential end states in Russia, which for China remains a core question. Putin's folly of invading Ukraine has all but guaranteed that Russia will emerge from the conflict enfeebled and diminished in its relative power position in Eurasia and globally. History has shown that Russian wars fought outside the national territory tend to generate powerful centrifugal forces at home, leading to internal turmoil, as was the case in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese war of 1904 and the defeat of tsarist armies in 1917. Either Putin or his eventual successor could look to Beijing for support as he contended with domestic strife. China would then be in a position to condition its support on fealty to Beijing.

There is another option, the chances of which are small but not zero. Defeat in a major foreign war might in extremis lead to the fracturing of the Russian state, as happened following the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which saw the USSR implode two years after the Soviet troop withdrawal. Here, too, Beijing stands to benefit if Russia's central and eastern parts then becoming subject to Chinese predation for resources, vassalization, oras unlikely as it might seem noweven colonization.
Maybe some truths. That is a Uke fanboy though…

I did miss this CBS documentary from August. Unsurprised the censorship industrial complex Party had them pull it.

nortex97
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Part of the issue with propaganda in the US revolves around 'think tanks' pushing an agenda. Big surprise; most are funded by the DoD!

Quote:

The vast majority of media mentions of think tanks in articles about U.S. arms and the Ukraine war are from think tanks whose funders profit from U.S. military spending, arms sales and, in many cases, directly from U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war.

The analysis offers a number of key findings.

First, of the 27 think tanks whose donors could be identified, 21 received funding from the defense sector (77 percent).

Second, in articles related to U.S. military involvement in Ukraine media outlets have cited think tanks with financial backing from the defense industry 85 percent of the time, or seven times as often as think tanks that do not accept funding from Pentagon contractors.

Third, despite a general trend towards greater donor transparency at think tanks themselves, nearly a third of the top U.S. foreign policy think tanks still do not provide the public with information about their funders.

Fourth, media outlets rarely identify conflicts of interest posed by experts they cite from defense industry funded think tanks in cases where they offer their opinions on policies that would benefit the defense industry.

These findings lead to several policy recommendations:

Think tanks are not required to publicly disclose their donors and many choose not to, hiding their potential conflicts of interest from the public and policymakers. Congress should end the era of "dark money" think tanks by enacting legislation that requires think tanks to publicly disclose any funding they receive from the United States or foreign government agencies or firms that work for them.
Think tanks should adopt a professional standard of disclosing, within the publications themselves, any funding the think tank receives from entities that have a financial interest in the subject matter of the publication.
Media outlets should, similarly, adopt a professional standard to report any conflicts of interest with sources discussing U.S. foreign policy.
This does, imho, shape public perception among the very small part of the public who do try to pay attention to things such as the 'little' war in Ukraine. It's propaganda-fed, in other words. Much more at the link.

We've seen some robust discussion as to losses between the two sides. This does certainly reinforce my suspicion that Ukraine is now desperately short of new military age male recruits to hurl at the Russians:

Quote:

Whatever Zelenskyy attempts will be costly in young Ukrainian lives, with among 50,000 young women set to be deployed to front line areas in the coming days and weeks.
So, maybe the mythological offensive will happen? If so, it will be a very inclusive/PC offensive, indeed. I think our own US Army only allowed women to become 11B (infantry-men/women/persons etc.) around 2015/2016. Sigh…
nortex97
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Hmmm…
Whirligigs
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bmks270
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Lol, the Russian propaganda couldn't be any more obvious.
nortex97
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LOL, I know, anything that doesn't support Xi-Xiden-Zelensky's cause is Russian Propaganda to some.





Ukrainian conscriptions of 16 year olds is also ramping up, per many reports.

Interesting discussion:



PlaneCrashGuy
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So the child soldiers are supposed to be the good guys
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
bmks270
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Have you looked at the authors "blog" and tweet history?

It's nothing but delusional US and NATO bashing.

Look what he wrote in January 2022.

Does this look like an objective source? No, it's a delusional fanboy whose take on this is worse than a college football fan who believes his team is better than his most hated rival.

Quote:



That said, I am convinced Russia has no intention whatsoever to assimilate the entirety of Ukraine. Rather, I expect them to destroy Ukrainian military capabilities, and to annex eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River, thereby also establishing a land bridge to Crimea.

What will be the US/NATO response? Well, I consider it 99.99% certain there will be no military response none whatsoever. There is no way in hell the Pentagon is going to risk having the myth of US military impregnability exposed in a futile attempt to help Ukraine.

The US will thump its chest, announce various "severe sanctions" (including excommunicating Russia from SWIFT), and also attempt to impose a blockade of Russian energy exports to Europe. But this will fail, for the simple reason that Germany will not / cannot accede to it.

The US will command the world to cease exporting to Russia a long list of items. Then a long parade of DC #ThinkTankMonkeys will make the rounds of the MSM news channels confidently guaranteeing the imminent destruction of the Russian economy and the end of the Putin era.

But most of the world will simply ignore the toothless US edicts. Large portions of SWIFT volume will move to alternative platforms (already in place); trade settlement in USD will decrease dramatically, Nordstream2 will start delivering gas to Germany before next winter…

US sanctions on Russia will prove utterly impotent; regional trade and currency blocs will rapidly gain market share, and the hard reality of a new era of multipolarity and the effective end of NATO and the once-mighty American empire will become undeniably apparent to all.




The material presented by nortex97 is completely delusional Russian propaganda.
chickencoupe16
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While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Is Putin doing regime change in a country that borders his?

Overall, it seems like the concept of regime change has become less popular since the year 2000.

It's John Kerry diplomacy. We were for it before we were against it.
notex
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chickencoupe16 said:

While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
In what way is he/she (nortex) delusional?

What author is in question as a shill?
fka ftc
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notex said:

chickencoupe16 said:

While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
In what way is he/she (nortex) delusional?

What author is in question as a shill?
Questioning the narrative that we must be all in for the Great Z and Ukraine "sovereignty" means you are a Putin propogandist and swear your allegiance to the Kremlin.

Here in America, some people are against voicing dissent against the actions of our government. Totally ignorant of the US Constitution and such.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
GAC06
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notex said:

chickencoupe16 said:

While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
In what way is he/she (nortex) delusional?

What author is in question as a shill?


How about one page back where he claimed Ukraine suffered 272,000 casualties defending Bakhmut?

How about this page speculating that the commander in chief of Ukraines military is dead and is being faked by a stand in?

Or just scroll back for countless other examples of utter bull****
benchmark
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chickencoupe16 said:

While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
And 15 months ago, who believed ... Germany's Olaf Scholz would be a warmonger ... and some of our fellow conservatives would be in a menage a trois with Viktor Orban and the German Greens. Crazy times.
nortex97
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GAC06 said:

notex said:

chickencoupe16 said:

While Nortex is certainly delusional and the author may be a Russian shill, that is in line with what most of the world believed in January 2022.
In what way is he/she (nortex) delusional?

What author is in question as a shill?


How about one page back where he claimed Ukraine suffered 272,000 casualties defending Bakhmut?

How about this page speculating that the commander in chief of Ukraines military is dead and is being faked by a stand in?

Or just scroll back for countless other examples of utter bull****
HAHAHAHA. I see I have missed some excitement here today in my broken english, while cussing at russian plumbing domestically.

Good times.

First, I didn't claim that. In fact, if you…use a search engine you might find that Prigozhin is who did. I did cite a source on it, because this is…for another perspective. Ostensibly. His casualty estimates and frustrations have been championed when he gripes about…Russia. But here his estimates I guess are off. I think it was around 70K of actual deaths, others just injured etc. I dunno, he's the Wagner CEO or whatever you call it.

Second, is it not reasonable to have questioned why he went silent, then his eye color changed, and he's not in fact embroiled in some quite intense disagreements with saint zelensky? He was pretty assuredly injured in the past 60 days. I dunno, whatever, but again I do profess to reading different sources instead of just taking the 'war zone' or pro-DoD propaganda outlets' word. I know, that makes me a practical Putin organ donor or something.

Goodness, so much for decorum, and respectful disagreement, comrades.
GAC06
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I'm not constantly posting obviously false Russian propaganda, I'm just…

cItiNg sOuRcEs…

From the perspective of Russian propaganda even a child should immediate be able to tell is false.

Thanks for the laugh, once again.
nortex97
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I see war on the rocks has a piece of…Russian propaganda about the pathetic state of affairs of the Ukrainian army. Sad to see Putin got to them. Conclusory missive:

Quote:

Conclusion
Ukraine has fought mostly a defensive war and will be transitioning to the offense. The ratio of troops in the offense versus the defense can be 3 to 1 (6 to 1 in urban combat). Add in high-intensity urban operations, and that ratio goes up. Ukraine has yet to conduct major offensive operations in a large city or to perform a major river crossing. Both of these operations are very complex and resource- /manpower-intensive, requiring close synchronization of all assets to include infantry, armor, artillery, logistics, and medical to be successful. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have performed admirably but need to refocus their training and operations on combined arms operations and to become adept at operating at night.

Western support to Ukraine has an expiration date that is fast approaching. Also, the will of the Ukrainian people to support high casualty rates is very high but is not infinite. The Russian military has plenty of people and time on their side. The way to change the equation in Ukraine's favor is through combined arms operations and training. History has repeatedly shown how a well-trained and properly led military can beat a poorly trained army. The challenging part is changing the mentality of senior leaders who have spent decades in the Soviet system to a mission command philosophy that allows for flexibility and initiative with the understanding that it will not result in a disaster or a prison sentence but rather battlefield victory.
I do sense that there is palpable desperation among those in our media who I would characterize as cheerleaders of the war in Ukraine. After all, the mythological 'spring offensive' clearly never happened in 2023, as we approach mid-June. Fresh demands for more air power assets don't change that the December declarations that Bakhmut would change the course of the war are…moot, or silly.

Some comments I notice are just ignored, though, such as the use of women and 16 and under in the Ukrainian combat forces. Sad. But I again note there are no 'good' sides in this conflict, only varying degrees of horrible/evil.

The dynamics here are fascinating. As one who's actually raised my right hand and sworn an oath to defend the constitution against enemies foreign and domestic, I find the angry/blind accusations amusing, mainly, if also sad/pathetic.
GAC06
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"Approaching mid June"?

It's June 3rd.

And you're welcome for your service, comrade.
benchmark
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nortex97 said:

Some comments I notice are just ignored, though, such as the use of women and 16 and under in the Ukrainian combat forces. Sad. But I again note there are no 'good' sides in this conflict, only varying degrees of horrible/evil.
Good grief. Your comments/posts are ignored for a reason. Seriously, you just pull crap out of thin air and wonder why you're ignored? FYI, compulsory military service for women is required in many countries ... like Israel, Finland, Sweden, and Norway for example. In fact, a female IDF soldier was killed today.
Teslag
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"no good sides in this conflict"

nortex97
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GAC06 said:

"Approaching mid June"?

It's June 3rd.

And you're welcome for your service, comrade.
Funny, I recall being similarly derided by 'conservatives' regarding my sources/links about Tony Fauci a few years ago. "Sketchy" feelings and all that.

We're halfway into week 1 of June pending the (mythological) spring offensive. Global warming has probably slowed it down, to be fair.
Waffledynamics
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nortex97 said:

GAC06 said:

"Approaching mid June"?

It's June 3rd.

And you're welcome for your service, comrade.
Funny, I recall being similarly derided by 'conservatives' regarding my sources/links about Tony Fauci a few years ago. "Sketchy" feelings and all that.

We're halfway into week 1 of June pending the (mythological) spring offensive. Global warming has probably slowed it down, to be fair.
All of the offensives thus far have been real. Why do you think the upcoming one is "mythological"?
GAC06
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nortex97 said:

GAC06 said:

"Approaching mid June"?

It's June 3rd.

And you're welcome for your service, comrade.
Funny, I recall being similarly derided by 'conservatives' regarding my sources/links about Tony Fauci a few years ago. "Sketchy" feelings and all that.

We're halfway into week 1 of June pending the (mythological) spring offensive. Global warming has probably slowed it down, to be fair.


When is the first day of summer?
Ag_of_08
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Been watching a little bit on the battle in Vuhledar....either they're lying about their more elite tankers deployment, or the tactile blunders would make Hitler look like a genius...
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Quote:

"Logistics (is)… as vital to military success as daily food is to daily work." Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, USN
This war seems like a cluster**** to us because both the Ukrainians and the Russians suck at logistics.

Theres no way they operate and maintain all this equipment we are sending over there. F-16s. all these advanced tanks and other vehicles the rest of the word is throwing at them. That stuff requires maintenance. Technicians and drivers train for years just to operate one piece of equipment at a very high level.

So I don't see the Ukrainians all of a sudden putting up some successful counter-offensive, no matter the circumstance.

Russia will eventually grind the Ukrainians down. All this talk is just taking the long way around the barn.

Someone needs to step up and negotiate some kind of deal to stop this and salvage whats left of the infrastructure. They''ll turn the whole place into no-mans land. Thats the inevitable result.

So Ukraine needs to prepare itself to make some concessions. But that will never happen.

The reason it wont happen is because this is proxy WW3, which is what I've been telling you all for the past 3-years.
GAC06
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You've just being saying WWIII, mostly.

Which I guess means Korea, Vietnam, Arab/Israeli wars, Russia in Afghanistan, and others were also WWIII. So maybe a much higher WW number now?
Whistle Pig
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This is no proxy war. Ukraine has the will and countered the initial offensive with homegrown resources. Russia has zero chance of achieving their initial "3 day" aims.

With zero western support Ukraine would still grind them down with an insurgency that makes AFGH look like a cake walk.
Teslag
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Quote:

Russia will eventually grind the Ukrainians down.


With what? It's not 1942 anymore.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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Almost all you you people are off base on this.

We'll just keep arguing about it though until someone is eventually proven right by the passage of time.
Teslag
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

Almost all you you people are off base on this.

We'll just keep arguing about it though until someone is eventually proven right by the passage of time.


Like when you just said you don't see the Ukes putting up a successful counter offensive even though a year ago they did just that?
Stat Monitor Repairman
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All this is going nowhere. Just wait.
GAC06
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

All this is going nowhere. Just wait.


So it's NOT WWIII?
Teslag
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

All this is going nowhere. Just wait.


Well that's convincing. You really know your stuff.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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We looking at it right now.

We've been conditioned to think WW3 is going to look a certain way but thats not the case.

We've seen a biological first strike.

We've seen biological countermeasures.

We've seen economic warfare.

We are seeing cyberwarfare.

We've are seeing psycological warfare.

We've seen sabotage of infrastructure.

And we've seen subversion on a mass scale.

The point is that ww3 is here. It just doesn't look how you thought it was gonna look.
Stat Monitor Repairman
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GAC06 said:

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

All this is going nowhere. Just wait.
So it's NOT WWIII?
Some of ya'll are ww3 deniers. I get that.

But you folks gonna come to Jesus on this issue.
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