Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

538,968 Views | 9481 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by nortex97
Teslag
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texagbeliever said:

Teslag said:

My guess is that we wanted to use Ukraine as a proxy to inflict pain on a geopolitical rival.

Now answer mine.


So that makes America the bad guy then. Our goal isn't to defend Ukraine or get to a strategically best outcome for them but to get to a best outcome for us. Which you say is hurting our "rival". Meanwhile it is their country that is destroyed and their citizens dying.

It is their choice to defend their nation and fight for liberty until their death, not mine or yours. They seem to want to fight and logically will ask and beg for any amount of help they can get.

I would do the same if me and my neighbors were invaded. As would you. There's a cenotaph in San Antonio dedicated to the lives of men who once felt the same.
nortex97
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Teslag said:

texagbeliever said:

Teslag said:

My guess is that we wanted to use Ukraine as a proxy to inflict pain on a geopolitical rival.

Now answer mine.


So that makes America the bad guy then. Our goal isn't to defend Ukraine or get to a strategically best outcome for them but to get to a best outcome for us. Which you say is hurting our "rival". Meanwhile it is their country that is destroyed and their citizens dying.

It is their choice to defend their nation and fight for liberty until their death, not mine or yours. They seem to want to fight and logically will ask and beg for any amount of help they can get.
But, broadly, that is just not true. Again the biggest challenge facing Ukraine BEFORE the war started was emigration. Then depopulation/birth rates. That the totalitarians/CIA etc. running the place have since ordered the borders closed/forbade more military-age males from leaving doesn't make it any less true.

A million or more are in Russia now. Migrants/refugees are/have flooded Europe. Ukraine is becoming, substantially, a ghost town. Is the Alamo really a good analogy?

The popular myth that "Ukrainians en masse/writ large want to stay and fight Russia" is just that.
Teslag
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So because they are losing population those that remain don't deserve liberty, and should roll over to a hostile invasion? That's your argument?
nortex97
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Teslag said:

So because they are losing population those that remain don't deserve liberty, and should roll over to a hostile invasion? That's your argument?
No, that's not my argument.

Reading comprehension fail, as usual/is your style.
Teslag
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Then be clear. Does a nation of free people deserve to fight for that liberty?
nortex97
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Teslag said:

Then be clear. Does a nation of free people deserve to fight for that liberty?
I've been plenty clear. Your attempts to ignore all of the data I've posted to reduce it back to your cartoonish view that this is just a gaggle of freedom fighters hoping to somehow win vs. an oppressor is an absurdity easily rebutted by history and actual data.

But you have a steady track record of buying into whatever propaganda is fed to you, and name calling anyone who disagrees as a liar/dumb etc. 'Vaccines,' electric cars, Ukrainian freedom fighters, whatever. You're never open to discussion/changing a viewpoint, and that's fine, but I hope other readers of this thread recognize this more broadly given our exchange.
Teslag
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Just answer the question. Does a nation of free people deserve to fight for that liberty? Doesn't seem like a hard question to answer. I've also called you no names, and made no references to your character. I'm simply asking straightforward questions that you seem to not want to answer.
texagbeliever
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Teslag said:

Then be clear. Does a nation of free people deserve to fight for that liberty?


1. They aren't "free".
2. Is it better to fight today when odds are even or to fight in 2 years when the odds are stacked in your favor.
3. Is it better to stall with peace and mild concessions today then to take up issue when the odds turn in your favor.
4. You can want many things, having the means is far more important than the desire. You have confused want with means.

Look end of the day Ukraine doesn't decide if they win, the "West" does. The West is weak which is why Russia chose to strike. Feigning strength by engaging in a conflict while weak is what history shows as cataclysmic.

In much the same way I have distaste for Sherman's March to the Atlantic I can also respect the damage Russia's war is doing to progressive, managerial class dominated West.
nortex97
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Teslag said:

Just answer the question. Does a nation of free people deserve to fight for that liberty? Doesn't seem like a hard question to answer. I've also called you no names, and made no references to your character. I'm simply asking straightforward questions that you seem to not want to answer.
What is this, the R/P forum suddenly, and I have to defend liberty vs. tyranny randomly? You've repeatedly accused me of posting lies, but whatever again.

I believe/support people working to maintain freedom, but that doesn't mean I want to ship weapons/cash/help them to join Nato for all people doing so. People in Iran, Syria, Kurdistan, Turkey, Hungary, China, heck in most countries on earth some people are fighting against oppression, including in Washington DC. Pretty much the whole continent of Africa.

I posted on this thread the history of a huge war Pakistan waged on Bengals that…we didn't go fight for/support the Bengali's. That doesn't mean I'm glad that millions of them died, or that I love Pakistan any more than you're driving a Tesla means you just adore Xi Jinping.

Ukraine doesn't matter much to me, either in 1993, 1996, 2003, 2013, 2014, 2020, 2022, or 2023. The truth is, it doesn't even matter to many Ukrainians, clearly.
Teslag
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Quote:

I believe/support people working to maintain freedom, but that doesn't mean I want to ship weapons/cash/help them to join Nato for all people doing so.

Which I have repeatedly said is a very valid viewpoint to have. We owe Ukraine nothing. We certainly aren't responsible for their liberty. My point is that we cannot hold it against them for simply wanting to be free, nor should we not expect them to scratch, claw, beg, steal, and borrow whatever they need to remain free. That is the most basic obligation of a leader of free peoples.
Teslag
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How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
texagbeliever
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Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.

If Venezuela was invaded by say America and Venezuelans fought back would that make the Venezuelans free and right to fight back. No, because the people aren't free in their own country. Not in the way you casually use the word free in the hopes of aligning it with America's notion of free.

Who cares if they have a right. What matters is do they have the MEANS. Letting them die in a strategic war you just said was done with USA aim at weakening Russia NOT gaining freedom for or doing what is best for Ukrainians. Do you get how the objectives aren't aligned here? Do you see how some might conclude the war is morally not just?
nortex97
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Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
It's a totalitarian country without a free press, limited religious freedom (ROC shut out), closed borders (not allowed to leave), a long-standing genuine nazi problem, single party (11 opposition parties banned), operating under martial law, a government that began banning books in 2016, and intensifying forced conscription.

Sure, other than those minor details, they are just as free as any Texan.

I'm again amazed how much some folks buy into propaganda/narratives.
Teslag
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Quote:

Who cares if they have a right. What matters is do they have the MEANS. Letting them die in a strategic war you just said was done with USA aim at weakening Russia NOT gaining freedom for or doing what is best for Ukrainians. Do you get how the objectives aren't aligned here? Do you see how some might conclude the war is morally not just?

And that is their choice to make, not ours. They can demand we stop sending weapons and lay down at any moment. For some reason they choose not to. Just as you and I would do.
Teslag
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nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
It's a totalitarian country without a free press, limited religious freedom (ROC shut out), closed borders (not allowed to leave), a long-standing genuine nazi problem, single party (11 opposition parties banned), operating under martial law, a government that began banning books in 2016, and intensifying forced conscription.

Sure, other than those minor details, they are just as free as any Texan.

I'm again amazed how much some folks buy into propaganda/narratives.

So for that they deserve to be invaded by a hostile foreign adversary? When does a nation give up their sovereignty? They fight awfully hard for a people that doesn't want to remain that way and are purely conscripts...
texagbeliever
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Teslag said:

Quote:

Who cares if they have a right. What matters is do they have the MEANS. Letting them die in a strategic war you just said was done with USA aim at weakening Russia NOT gaining freedom for or doing what is best for Ukrainians. Do you get how the objectives aren't aligned here? Do you see how some might conclude the war is morally not just?

And that is their choice to make, not ours. They can demand we stop sending weapons and lay down at any moment. For some reason they choose not to. Just as you and I would do.


Let them die because they want to die. Instead of helping them survive so they can later win. Your lack of value of the future for the sake of the present is a glaring problem in your political takes. See covid.
nortex97
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Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
It's a totalitarian country without a free press, limited religious freedom (ROC shut out), closed borders (not allowed to leave), a long-standing genuine nazi problem, single party (11 opposition parties banned), operating under martial law, a government that began banning books in 2016, and intensifying forced conscription.

Sure, other than those minor details, they are just as free as any Texan.

I'm again amazed how much some folks buy into propaganda/narratives.

So for that they deserve to be invaded by a hostile foreign adversary? When does a nation give up their sovereignty? They fight awfully hard for a people that doesn't want to remain that way and are purely conscripts...
Once again you jump to a conclusory analysis/position that is just not even related to what I typed out. Here, try to get some help:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201810/5-ways-stop-yourself-jumping-conclusions

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/argument/
Stat Monitor Repairman
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One thing I've learned traveling around quite a bit ...

You can't understand the depth of local politics somewhere unless you are from there, or at a minimum a native speaker.

The reverse it true for US politics. You talk to people in Europe / Eastern Europe about US politics and they regurgitate whatever drivel they heard on CNN international or whatever snippet of bs they have access to.

All the local issues discussed here run deep. Deeper than we can understand as reasonably informed observers.

Also keep in mind that the issues everywhere else in the world have been around longer than the US has even been a country,

So I look at it like that. It's hard to make sense of any political, racial or cultural issue as an outside third party/ detached observer.

So when people say well the Ukrainians did this, the Russians think this, Putin did this for cultural reasons, people in the former soviet states think this ... its all bs, and I'll be the first to admit we have no idea what is going on looking at this as outsiders.
Teslag
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nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
It's a totalitarian country without a free press, limited religious freedom (ROC shut out), closed borders (not allowed to leave), a long-standing genuine nazi problem, single party (11 opposition parties banned), operating under martial law, a government that began banning books in 2016, and intensifying forced conscription.

Sure, other than those minor details, they are just as free as any Texan.

I'm again amazed how much some folks buy into propaganda/narratives.

So for that they deserve to be invaded by a hostile foreign adversary? When does a nation give up their sovereignty? They fight awfully hard for a people that doesn't want to remain that way and are purely conscripts...
Once again you jump to a conclusory analysis/position that is just not even related to what I typed out. Here, try to get some help:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201810/5-ways-stop-yourself-jumping-conclusions

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/argument/


Keep dodging, it's a great look.
PA24
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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

One thing I've learned traveling around quite a bit ...

You can't understand the depth of local politics somewhere unless you are from there, or at a minimum a native speaker.

The reverse it true for US politics. You talk to people in Europe / Eastern Europe about US politics and they regurgitate whatever drivel they heard on CNN international or whatever snippet of bs they have access to.

All the local issues discussed here run deep. Deeper than we can understand as reasonably informed observers.

Also keep in mind that the issues everywhere else in the world have been around longer than the US has even been a country,

So I look at it like that. It's hard to make sense of any political, racial or cultural issue as an outside third party/ detached observer.

So when people say well the Ukrainians did this, the Russians think this, Putin did this for cultural reasons, people in the former soviet states think this ... its all bs, and I'll be the first to admit we have no idea what is going on looking at this as outsiders.
I was traveling/living in mostly black countries a few years ago and CNN was on every public TV blasting how white people were racist. Man, they can stir up some hate.
nortex97
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Moderately encouraging really, if he is figuring this out.

World Bank put out an estimate last week that the 'rebuild' starting offer/bid for Ukraine will tab in around $411 billion. With that not starting for at least another 6 months of bidenflation time, I assume the actual $$$ the US will be 'asked' to provide will be around a trillion bucks (including a whole new Air Force/army/navy etc, heck maybe even a border wall!)
notex
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Are they really going to hold Bakhmut? It sounds like the Russians are basically through/in the azov area. This map is very interesting, and seems well informed but I guess not a lot of movement overall.

https://www.google.com/mymaps/viewer?mid=180u1IkUjtjpdJWnIC0AxTKSiqK4G6Pez&hl=en_US

Maybe the US won't be providing F-16's after all:

nortex97
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I have no idea. They seem committed to a hold for as long as possible. I'd theorize it is forcing the Russians to move troops to that rubble while the flanks (or northern/southern parts of the line of battle) the Ukrainians plan to counter-attack are thus thinned out.

From some Ukrainian general staff or something on facebook (??):

Quote:

"On the Bakhmut front, the Russians continue their assault operations on the city of Bakhmut and have had partial success. Nevertheless, our defenders courageously held the city and repelled numerous Russian attacks.

During the day, Russia conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the vicinity of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Donetsk Oblast. It shelled Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast."
texagbeliever
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The moral is to the physical but 3:1. But the moral is of little use inside a dead body. Our pro-war posters are going to learn the hard lesson of the latter as they self congratulate themselves of their victory in the former.
nortex97
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True.

Some updates: (The Guardian around 5:00am CST today)

Quote:

  • Russian forces have had some success in the eastern frontline city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian military officials said on Wednesday evening, adding that their fighters were still holding on in a battle that has lasted several months. The US thinktank the Institute for the Study of War's regular update appears to support this, saying, "geolocated footage published on March 28 and 29 indicates that Russian forces advanced in southern and southwestern Bakhmut."
  • Alexei Moskalyov, a Russian man who was sentenced to two years in prison for discrediting the Russian armed forces, and whose daughter was taken into care, has been detained after fleeing house arrest, human rights activist and lawyer Dmitry Zakhvatov said on Thursday. It was earlier reported that Moskalyov was arrested in Minsk in Belarus, having fled his house arrest.
  • The UK Ministry of Defence reports, citing Russian media, that authorities are preparing to launch a major recruitment campaign aimed at signing up 400,000 new troops to fight in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian volunteers who have been evacuating civilians from the frontlines of the war with Russia say some parents have been hiding their children in basements to prevent them from being taken. While parents have given different reasons, most volunteers have attributed the phenomenon to a combination of poverty and the psychological condition of the families, who have been living under bombing for months.
  • Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Thursday that Moscow was still talking to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the idea of a safety zone around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that has been controlled by Russian forces since March 2022.

The Russians also arrested some WSJ reporter for 'espionage' as I think he was trying to procure documents/images related to military production/facilities for publication. Not sure how big a deal that is as he doesn't sound like a celebrity druggie transgender basketball player type.

It does sound like the Ukrainian parts of Bakhmut are shrinking, inch by inch.

nortex97
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oh no
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Biden and Blinken state department and foreign policies going exactly as expected.

nortex97
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Poland is becoming an armory of sorts in Europe, which is perhaps not a bad thing, net. Again I don't think that's the most efficient use of American taxpayer dollars.




Corruption concerns in Ukraine reconstruction already? Color me shocked.
Quote:

Bucha, the town infamous for a massacre at the hands of Russia, has become a symbol of Ukraine's reconstruction effort. But experts say the influx of money from the west will bring challenges in such a corrupt country, as Lorenzo Tondo reports:
Quote:

As of January, Kyiv School of Economics reported a total of 149,300 residential buildings damaged, 330 hospitals, 595 administrative buildings and more than 3,000 schools and university buildings.

The building work completed so far has been paid for out of Ukraine's cash reserves, and from an initial $600m payout from the European Investment Bank, which approved a second package of 1.59bn (1.4bn) in July 2022.

According to the latest evaluation, Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery needs have reached $411bn, the World Bank said. However, the estimate is constantly growing due to the continuous bombing and because no reliable data is available in the occupied territories. Ukraine's prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, has said the cost of rebuilding could reach $750bn.
Quote:

Tsivkach says he has already received numerous requests from foreign companies and dozens of projects are already under way, but some investors are still wary.

There is not only the issue of investing in a country still under bombardment. Another problem is the widespread corruption that has plagued Ukraine since independence. Transparency International ranked Ukraine as the second most corrupt country in Europe in 2021, behind only Russia.

"The international community should be very afraid of how corruption might compromise reconstruction, and it should begin immediately to take measures to combat it," says Bowser, who has worked for 25 years on governance and anti-corruption programs for various donor organisations. "Corruption is still endemic there."
I really thought Joseph Robinette Biden fixed the corruption worries in/about Ukraine. Shocked, shocked I am.
nortex97
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Ukraine war has basically eliminated US munitions stockpiles as a deterrent to China:

Quote:

There are also significant vulnerabilities with some rare-earth metals, which China has a near monopoly on, that are critical for manufacturing various missiles and munitions. China dominates the advanced battery supply chains across the globe, including the refining of cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel, as well as the production of anodes, separators, and electrolytes. China is the global leader in cast products, which are used in most military platforms and munitions from ships to missiles. Beijing produces more than the next nine countries combined, including over five times as much as the United States. The Department of Defense depends on foreign governments, including China, for large cast and forged products, which are used in some defense systems and machine tools.

Finally, lead time is a significant constraint. Missiles, space-based systems, and ships face the longest replacement times. It can take roughly two years to produce many types of missiles, and this is generally based on the time needed to deliver the first missilesnot the last ones.
Quote:

War is always scary, but it is even scarier when your side is not sufficiently prepared. And indeed, the U.S. defense industrial base is inadequate if the United States and China were to go to war. In 2022, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where I serve as senior vice president, conducted a war game involving a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026. The exercises revealed how quickly the United States would run through its current supply of weapons in the first few weeks of a major war. Certain critical munitionssuch as long-range, precision-guided munitionswould likely run out in less than one week. To avoid these shortfalls, the United States would need to scale up its production of weapons, but doing so quickly would be extremely difficult.

Equally concerning, these gaps undermine deterrencethe linchpin of the United States' defense strategybecause they reveal to all that the United States cannot endure a lengthy war. China has not made the same mistake. Beijing is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment five to six times as fast as the United States, according to some U.S. government estimates. Additionally, China would fight a war in the Taiwan Strait in its backyard, with easy access to its own industrial base. The United States would have to fight 7,000 miles from the shores of California.
Quote:

More broadly, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that great-power warsparticularly wars of attritionare industrial conflicts. The effort to deploy, arm, feed, and supply forces is a monumental task, and the massive consumption of equipment, systems, vehicles, and munitions requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply. On some days, the Russian military has launched 50,000 artillery shells at Ukrainian military and civilian positions. Ukraine is also burning through munitions at a frenzied rate, firing as many 155-millimeter rounds in five days as the United States produces in a month. Meanwhile, fighter aircraft, main battle tanks, artillery, and drones have also been destroyed or have broken down and constantly
need to be replaced or repaired.
more at the link.
Get Off My Lawn
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The ONLY silver lining I see to the consumption is that backfilling expended munitions will require industrial expansion - which establishes a production capability in advance of a prospective war with China.

Simply put: if maximum capacity for HIMARS production pre-Ukraine was 100 rockets and 1 ATACMS per week and a conventional fight would've seen us shoot out the entire inventory within 10 days - then the launchers would've become useless after the first engagement.

Now, taxpayer $ will be used to stand up new production lines / facilities, which gives warfighters a better support capability.

From a battlefield perspective: endless production > large stockpile
Ag with kids
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Get Off My Lawn said:

The ONLY silver lining I see to the consumption is that backfilling expended munitions will require industrial expansion - which establishes a production capability in advance of a prospective war with China.

Simply put: if maximum capacity for HIMARS production pre-Ukraine was 100 rockets and 1 ATACMS per week and a conventional fight would've seen us shoot out the entire inventory within 10 days - then the launchers would've become useless after the first engagement.

Now, taxpayer $ will be used to stand up new production lines / facilities, which gives warfighters a better support capability.

From a battlefield perspective: endless production > large stockpile
I'm just gonna say that production is higher than that.

I worked on the M270 MLRS program back in the late 80s/early 90s which is basically the same rockets/pods with a different launcher. I did post flight analysis for pod acceptance and they made **** TONS of those rockets/pods each time I did the reports.
nortex97
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Pro war wings of both parties are an enemy of the people.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/04/01/glenn_greenwald_the_pro-war_establishment_wings_of_both_parties_are_the_real_enemy_of_voters.html
nortex97
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There is a 'history that doesn't suck' episode out on the various podcast platforms that is interesting, about Russia specifically.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4lkUxC2hFuWOFebAPqZ4Eq?si=itubrUV6RlGwPJsSA6mR4Q&dd=1

It's not real 'in depth' by any means, but a decent overview for those that might be interested.

https://www.historythatdoesntsuck.com/

Ags4DaWin
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I have been pointing this out for months only to get shouted down that the munitions being used in Ukraine are "different" than what Taiwan would need.

That's bull*****

2 Years ago I posted an article about how China has an 80% monopoly on a key ingredient for rocket fuel that we have no substitute for and Obama just allowed them to buy those companies away from the US.

The good news is that most of these sources are in Africa and South America, which means we could potentially disrupt China's sources.

The bad news is that since we have depleted our reserves and since China still has their reserves, the play they could be making is- outlast us long enough to where they get significant strategic advantages in a conflict that we cannot counteract because of limited supply.

China is positioning itself for a war of attrition. And as we are seeing in Ukraine, once the high tech stuff runs out then it's back to bullets and bodies.
Ags4DaWin
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Teslag said:

nortex97 said:

Teslag said:

How are they not "free"? They are a sovereign nation, and wish to remain so. You can argue that parts of the Donbas do not, but overall most do. And they have the right to die for that belief.
It's a totalitarian country without a free press, limited religious freedom (ROC shut out), closed borders (not allowed to leave), a long-standing genuine nazi problem, single party (11 opposition parties banned), operating under martial law, a government that began banning books in 2016, and intensifying forced conscription.

Sure, other than those minor details, they are just as free as any Texan.

I'm again amazed how much some folks buy into propaganda/narratives.

So for that they deserve to be invaded by a hostile foreign adversary? When does a nation give up their sovereignty? They fight awfully hard for a people that doesn't want to remain that way and are purely conscripts...


You made the argument that they deserve freedom.

It was pointed out that the Ukrainian people under the current regime don't have freedom.

So you conveniently changed ur argument that they deserve soveirgnty.

I am just gonna point tout that the big reason we invaded Afghanistan was to help people get freedom.

So as was pointed out- if Ukraine wasn't "free", especially for the groups that Russia cared about, why is the US allowed to invade countries to free certain people but Russia is not?

Just curious.
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