The UK, France, and Germany have already told Zelensky it's time to negotiate because he's not getting Crimea back. If the big 3 in Europe are already there it will be interesting to see how long the US wants to maintain this.
Even the mainstream media knows Zelenskyy’s promise to retake Crimea is both unrealistic and suicidal.
— @amuse (@amuse) March 5, 2023
pic.twitter.com/JYufugbbOd
Actual inconvenient truths.Quote:
An understanding of the importance of Crimea to Russians can be drawn largely from the goals of Western hardliners, mentioned above. The Russian establishment, and most ordinary Russians, are determined to maintain Russia's position as a great power. Three other factors are however also present. The first is Crimea's emotional significance, stemming from memories of the heroic defense of Sevastopol against the French, British, and Turks in 185455, and the Germans and Romanians in 194142. The Red Army lost more men in Crimea than the US army lost on all fronts of World War II put together.
The second is that between Crimea's 1783 conquest by Catherine the Great from the Ottoman Empire and its Crimean Tatar allies, and its 1954 transfer to Ukraine by Soviet decree, Crimea was part of Russia. Until the latter date, at no point in Crimea's history had it been part of Ukraine. Russians say not without reason that if the situation were reversed, and Crimea had been transferred from Ukraine to Russia, then much of Western public opinion would have sympathized with Ukrainian demands for its return.
The third is that Crimea has an ethnic Russian majority. In January 1991, an overwhelming majority (94 percent) of Crimeans voted to become a separate "Union Republic" of the USSR, which would have led to Crimea becoming an independent state alongside Ukraine and Russia when the Soviet Union dissolved. In December of that year, a slim majority (54 percent) of Crimeans voted for an independent Ukraine, but on condition of Crimea's autonomy, which the Ukrainian government unilaterally abolished four years later. Throughout the period of Ukrainian rule, a majority of Crimeans repeatedly expressed the desire for autonomy within Ukraine.
After the Russian seizure in 2014, an (internationally unrecognized) referendum and a series of opinion polls indicated that annexation to Russia had solid majority support. How things stand today is difficult to say given the level of repression now prevailing in Russia. But as former Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestovych has pointed out, the intense anti-Russian cultural measures introduced by the Ukrainian government including the banning of the Russian language and the burning of Russian books are unlikely to have increased support for Ukraine in Crimea.
It is impossible to say for sure if Russia would in the last resort use nuclear weapons to hold Crimea. It seems likely that they would begin by a less dangerous unconventional attack for example the disabling of US satellites that could begin escalation toward nuclear war. There are no grounds at all, however, for reasonable doubt that the Russian state would be willing to run colossal risks, for itself and for humanity. This being so, we should remember the words of President John F. Kennedy in his "Peace Speech" to American University in June 1963, reflecting the lessons that he had learned during the Cuban Missile Crisis:Quote:
Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy or of a collective death-wish for the world.
Urban Ag said:
Russia sucks. But Ukraine is one of the most absolutely corrupt nations on this globe. Mexico level corruption. After the fall of the USSR they sold untold amounts of weapons and munitions to some of the worst regimes and groups out there out their vast stockpiles sitting around. Ukrainians have been in bed with the absolute worst and most corrupt US politicians (hello Bidens) and businesses we have to offer. No one gave a sh** about this country prior to the Russian invasion. And let's be honest, the only reason the American left gives a rat's ass is a continuation of the Russia Russia Russia bullsh** lib narrative against Trump. And Zelynsky was just another eastern Euro trash grifter until it became cool for him to zoom meeting in to film festivals packed with libs.
InfantryAg said:
Communist, not communist, no difference they are still an adversary.
You think the cold war ended, the russians think it was just paused. I don't want to give them the opportunity to start it again. I am thinking of how things are going to be in 20 or 50 years from now and be proactive.
What does putin (and the ilk who will likely replace him if we don't undermine his cabal,) want for russia?
How long is he (they) willing to take to get there?
Again, this isn't a binary choice between escalating into WWIII or letting the Ukrainians fend for themselves. There's a lot of room in between those extremes.
Why would we sell them arms when we are getting a bargain? They could be saving us hundreds of billions a year if our politicians weren't so in bed with the military industrial complex.
They biggest problem with this whole thing is biden's ability to escalate it, when that is completely unnecessary.
Zelensky banned opposition parties and the Russian Orthodox Church for a start. His government has used misinformation and flat out lies such as the missiles Ukraine fired into Poland he blamed on Russia and the "Ghost of Kiev" among others. Is Russia worse? Absolutely, just quit acting like Zelensky is this beacon of light fighting corruption simply because you want him to be.Ulysses90 said:Urban Ag said:
Russia sucks. But Ukraine is one of the most absolutely corrupt nations on this globe. Mexico level corruption. After the fall of the USSR they sold untold amounts of weapons and munitions to some of the worst regimes and groups out there out their vast stockpiles sitting around. Ukrainians have been in bed with the absolute worst and most corrupt US politicians (hello Bidens) and businesses we have to offer. No one gave a sh** about this country prior to the Russian invasion. And let's be honest, the only reason the American left gives a rat's ass is a continuation of the Russia Russia Russia bullsh** lib narrative against Trump. And Zelynsky was just another eastern Euro trash grifter until it became cool for him to zoom meeting in to film festivals packed with libs.
I see the same brand brush that paints Ukraine as uniformly corrupt from 1994 to present employ in almost every argument against suport for financial or military aid to the Ukrainian government in the war. There seems to be no interest or awareness that there have been three distinct chapters in the history of Ukraine since its independence in1994 and three distinct government factions. Lumping those together and dismissing them collectively as all equally corrupt is intellectually lazy.
This is an oversimplification but to put things in perspective, the period from 1994 to 2005 was inept and corrupt Ukrainian government which carried on the practices that were assimilated over 70 years of Soviet rule. In 2005, Russia staged the Orange Revolution to make Ukraine a puppet government that did Putin's bidding. In 2014 the Maidan Revolution overthrew the Russofile government but was still rife with corruption and run by oligarchs. It was at this time that Russia annexed Crimea and seized large parts of eastern Ukraine under the LHR and DNR separatist militias.
In 2017, Zelenskyy was elected specifically because he was an outsider with a mandate to clean up corruption and prepare to defend against Russian aggression. I wouldn't argue that he entirely accomplished the mission of cleaning up the government of Ukraine but he made spectacular progress compared to what he inherited.
I see the war a defensive war of national survival against an expansionist Russian regame that attacked first and has deliberately attacked the civilian population of Ukraine. That makes it a lot easier for me to give the Ukrainian government some leeway for past corruption of the regimes that preceded them and to judge the Zelenskyy administration on their deeds since 2017 and more specifically since Feb 24, 2022.
Ukraine is corrupt but, make some acknowledgment that Zelenskyy is a significant change from the first Maidan Revolution administration (i.e. to one that the Biden family was so tight with) and that was a completely different government from the Orange Revolution or the pre-2005 government.
Zelenskyy hasn't done anything since the war began that causes me to question his leadership. Recall that Ronald Reagan was also endlessly ridiculed by the left for being a hack actor that had no business in the White House. I recall the Bedtime for Bonzo jokes and a Rich Little record ridiculing Reagan. The endless stream of videos of Zelenskyy's career as a performer strike me as the same type of empty sniping for lack of criticisms of substance.
El Salvador is a corrupt country riddled with drug gangs but it's no longer hopelessly corrupt because they elected Nayib Bukele who is rooting out corruption. Zelenskyy has to simultaneously fight Russia and a culture of corruption that preceded him. Would that Zelenskyy had volcanic energy with which to mime bit Bitcoin to finance the war against Russian invaders and could be more financiallyindependentlike Bukele but, he doesn't.
Urban Ag said:
U90 - I have read your posts for probably two decades now and came to the conclusion a long time ago that pretty much any topic you take the time to chime in on is something you can speak intelligently to. Some years ago you got banned for something and knowing your posting history it pissed me off enough that I deleted my credit card info from my profile in protest and didn't buy stars again for at least a couple of years. My point is I respect your perspective and am happy to defer to you has being much more knowledgeable of current realities of Ukraine than I.
That said, Ukrainian corruption really was not the point of my gripe. I probably should have been more clear of spoke to it less. Note that I never stated my position on the conflict either nor claim I was against US support. I have been for US support, within reason, with a lot of transparency, and healthy debate.
If we want to talk intellectual laziness, branding those who question or want more discussion debate of, or even oppose US support, as pro-Putin or pro-Russia, is in fact highly intellectually lazy and likely just dishonest. That was my point. We've had constant conservative on conservative violence on F16 over this for a year. That is what draws my ire.
Ags4DaWin said:
Question- and this is a litmus test of sorts for me.
IF zelensky was as serious about rooting out corruption as you say....then why did he resist investigating burisma and hunterBiden?
That arrangement was made after the Maiden revolution while Biden was VP.
If his goal was to root out corruption then that should have been a no Brainer and a method to start to tag and get rid of those corrupt officials.
Quote:
Trump: Good because I heard you had a prosecutor who was very good and he was shut down and that's really unfair. A lot of people are talking about that, the way they shut your very good prosecutor down and you had some very bad people involved. Mr. Giuliani is a highly respected man. He was the mayor of New York City, a great mayor, and I would like him to call you. I will ask him to call you along with the Attorney General. Rudy very much knows what's happening and he is a very capable guy. If you could speak to him that would be great. The former ambassador from the United States, the woman was bad news and the people she was dealing with in the Ukraine were bad news so I just want to let you know that. The other thing, There's a lot of talk about Biden's son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it...It sounds horrible to me.
Zelensky: I wanted to tell you about the prosecutor. First of all I understand and I'm knowledgeable about the situation. Since we have won the absolute majority in our Parliament; the next prosecutor general will be 100% my person, my candidate, who will be approved, by the parliament and will start as a new prosecutor in September. He or she will look into the situation, specifically to the company that you mentioned in this issue. The issue of the investigation of the case is actually the issue of making sure to restore the honesty so we will take care of that and will work on the investigation of the case. On top of that, I would kindly ask you if you have any additional information that you can provide to us it would be very helpful for the investigation to make sure that we justice in our country with regard to the Ambassador to the United States from Ukraine as far as I recall her name was Ivanovich. It was great that you were the first one who told me that she was a bad ambassador because I agree with you 100%. Her attitude towards me was far from the best as she admired the previous President and she was on his side. She would not accept me as a new President well enough.
Here's a more recent inconvenient truth you conveniently omitted.nortex97 said:
Actual inconvenient truths.
Quote:
The Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine, widely referred to as the Kharkiv Pact or Kharkov Accords was a treaty between Ukraine and Russia whereby the Russian lease on naval facilities in Crimea was extended beyond 2017 until 2042, with an additional five-year renewal option in exchange for a multiyear discounted contract to provide Ukraine with Russian natural gas.
The agreement, signed on 21 April 2010 in Kharkiv, Ukraine, by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and ratified by the parliaments of both countries on 27 April 2010, aroused much controversy in Ukraine. The treaty was effectively a continuation of the lease provisions that were part of the 1997 Black Sea Fleet Partition Treaty between the two states. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in March 2014, Russia unilaterally terminated the treaty on 31 March 2014.
I didn't want to quote the whole article, per TOS.benchmark said:Here's a more recent inconvenient truth you conveniently omitted.nortex97 said:
Actual inconvenient truths.Quote:
The Agreement between Ukraine and Russia on the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine, widely referred to as the Kharkiv Pact or Kharkov Accords was a treaty between Ukraine and Russia whereby the Russian lease on naval facilities in Crimea was extended beyond 2017 until 2042, with an additional five-year renewal option in exchange for a multiyear discounted contract to provide Ukraine with Russian natural gas.
The agreement, signed on 21 April 2010 in Kharkiv, Ukraine, by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and ratified by the parliaments of both countries on 27 April 2010, aroused much controversy in Ukraine. The treaty was effectively a continuation of the lease provisions that were part of the 1997 Black Sea Fleet Partition Treaty between the two states. Shortly after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in March 2014, Russia unilaterally terminated the treaty on 31 March 2014.
You really think it's a good idea to burn a leading member of one political party (and essentially taking sides with the other) ? So you want him to burn bridges with half the political system of the most powerful country on earth?Ags4DaWin said:
Question- and this is a litmus test of sorts for me.
IF zelensky was as serious about rooting out corruption as you say....then why did he resist investigating burisma and hunterBiden?
The Biden/burisma arrangement was made after the Maiden revolution while Biden was VP. And before zelensky.
If his goal was to root out corruption then that should have been a no Brainer for zelensky to devote some resources to that and a method for him to start to tag and get rid of those corrupt officials.
Yes, I'd expect corruption to be rooted out/pursued by anti-corruption officials, even if it were (is) embraced by Democrats as well. Something about subsidized softness comes to mind.mike0305 said:You really think it's a good idea to burn a leading member of one political party (and essentially taking sides with the other) ? So you want him to burn bridges with half the political system of the most powerful country on earth?Ags4DaWin said:
Question- and this is a litmus test of sorts for me.
IF zelensky was as serious about rooting out corruption as you say....then why did he resist investigating burisma and hunterBiden?
The Biden/burisma arrangement was made after the Maiden revolution while Biden was VP. And before zelensky.
If his goal was to root out corruption then that should have been a no Brainer for zelensky to devote some resources to that and a method for him to start to tag and get rid of those corrupt officials.
This is your litmus test?
Yes, it was reported by the WSJ this last week and apparently they told Zelensky this a few to several weeks ago so this isn't a brand new development. It's just now getting out to the media this last week, apparently.nortex97 said:
I didn't realize that was the case. Thx.
Our foreign policy team/leadership really is among the worst in US history, to say the least.
I appreciate the first part of your response.mike0305 said:
As an American that may serve your interest, but my point was it wasn't going to serve Zelenskyy's.
Why would a recently elected official of a much smaller weaker country dependent on US aid go full tilt on a witch hunt exposing a leader of the US and alienate half the dem party? Sure they "should" be on board with that, but that's not reality which you certainly know but probably won't admit. This isn't a slight to dems, Reps work equally hard to protect their own.
Yes, I imagine they love having their Manchurian stooges running the executive branch, and people in America buying the propaganda that somehow the Donbas/Crimea is worth 200K+ lives and untold trillions in inflation/direct munitions support while further economically destabilizing Europe and Russia alike.eric76 said:
You know that China is watching this very close and taking notice of how lackluster our response is and the numbers of people in the US who just want to let Russia get that way.
They gotta be loving this.
mike0305 said:
As an American that may serve your interest, but my point was it wasn't going to serve Zelenskyy's.
Why would a recently elected official of a much smaller weaker country dependent on US aid go full tilt on a witch hunt exposing a leader of the US and alienate half the dem party? Sure they "should" be on board with that, but that's not reality which you certainly know but probably won't admit. This isn't a slight to dems, Reps work equally hard to protect their own.
eric76 said:
You know that China is watching this very close and taking notice of how lackluster our response is and the numbers of people in the US who just want to let Russia get that way.
They gotta be loving this.
nortex97 said:Yes, I'd expect corruption to be rooted out/pursued by anti-corruption officials, even if it were (is) embraced by Democrats as well. Something about subsidized softness comes to mind.mike0305 said:You really think it's a good idea to burn a leading member of one political party (and essentially taking sides with the other) ? So you want him to burn bridges with half the political system of the most powerful country on earth?Ags4DaWin said:
Question- and this is a litmus test of sorts for me.
IF zelensky was as serious about rooting out corruption as you say....then why did he resist investigating burisma and hunterBiden?
The Biden/burisma arrangement was made after the Maiden revolution while Biden was VP. And before zelensky.
If his goal was to root out corruption then that should have been a no Brainer for zelensky to devote some resources to that and a method for him to start to tag and get rid of those corrupt officials.
This is your litmus test?
The problem is that our senile, duplicitous, treasonous leader is picking a side, with ridiculous demands, in said conflict, at huge expense to all sides.Brewskis said:
Americans picking sides in a tragic human conflict where there is clearly an aggressor, on the basis of run-of-the mill party politics (and associated corruption that has always been present in the US 2-party system) is about the most ridiculous thing I've seen in my 36 years of living.
Brewskis said:
Americans picking sides in a tragic human conflict where there is clearly an aggressor, on the basis of run-of-the mill party politics (and associated corruption that has always been present in the US 2-party system) is about the most ridiculous thing I've seen in my 36 years of living.
I am picking NO SIDE. And I have 11 years on you.Brewskis said:
Americans picking sides in a tragic human conflict where there is clearly an aggressor, on the basis of run-of-the mill party politics (and associated corruption that has always been present in the US 2-party system) is about the most ridiculous thing I've seen in my 36 years of living.
Signel said:
I'm ok with a slow proxy using Ukraine as the shield of the west. It depletes our enemy and allows us to reduce their risk to the west without actually fighting.
Wait until China gets kicked off. You ain't seen nothing yet. Remember, Xi and Putin already pledged to take us out. If you think sitting back while they claim resources and invade strategic countries is going to work out in our favor.....texagbeliever said:Signel said:
I'm ok with a slow proxy using Ukraine as the shield of the west. It depletes our enemy and allows us to reduce their risk to the west without actually fighting.
So you are cool with Ukrainians dying and the rest being subject to poverty and economic ruin? The longer this war draws on the more damaging it is to Ukraine's long term culture and ability to be a stable nation.