Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

476,623 Views | 9112 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by nortex97
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG




She's been all over this one the past few days I guess. (Yes, I know this is a parody).



I can't imagine he has professional advisors who think this will pull GOP voters his way in the primary.



Forever war! Let's plan on the 2025 counter-offensive.
shiftyandquick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Nortex, do you want Russia to successfully conquer Ukraine? Or are you rooting for Ukraine, but just don't want anyone in the west to help? Or are you completely neutral about the outcome (i.e. don't care)?
TheBonifaceOption
How long do you want to ignore this user?
nortex97 said:

:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F323edd4d-bbbe-4eac-9273-b4148b6652a4_654x780.jpeg

It's just a feint.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
shiftyandquick said:

Nortex, do you want Russia to successfully conquer Ukraine? Or are you rooting for Ukraine, but just don't want anyone in the west to help? Or are you completely neutral about the outcome (i.e. don't care)?
Oh I dunno. In an ideal outcome the war would end this morning, truce negotiated instantaneously at present lines, and somehow it would involve the US committing not to provide too much aid/reconstruction to Ukraine and no further nato expansion, letting China do the heavy lifting with Blackrock absent our dollars/risk of nuclear escalation/conflagration etc.

I really don't give a crap if Russian troops march on Kiev or not, but our ongoing/long term entanglement in this conflict is obviously dangerous and highly against our own interests, as is the fact that it is benefitting China enormously and also impacting world hunger in a terrible way.

Some child-like/sophomoric comments also have spurred my interest to follow/update this more frequently, I'll admit.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Your 14th post in 9 years. Impressive.
fka ftc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Well said.

In a similar manner, being called a Putin puppet and a comrade over and over have as well caused me to look more closely at the conflict, the history, and work harder to decipher truth from lies.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Offensive update; not going well. A Russian account:

Quote:

And another report from a Colonel K Zalessky, which starts off with the fact that 4 of the destroyed Leopards are reportedly still lying in the 'gray zone'the territory between the two sides that neither side controls, so there's still a chance Russian forces could recover them or will simply destroy them fully so AFU can't recover them. Read the full report as it gives a very detailed account of exactly how the assault began:
Quote:

Four "Leopards" remained in the gray zone ...

Colonel K.Zalessky especially for the channel Voenkor Kitten Z voenkorKotenok :

In continuation of yesterday's topic about the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our preparation for this offensive.

Yes, they knew, yes, they were preparing, yes, they guessed again where they would go, and, finally, they waited for the Leopards!


The enemy launched an offensive in the Orekhovskoye direction at 2 a.m. Moscow time in the defense zone of the 58th Army. On a wide front, after the most powerful artillery preparation and an electronic warfare attack that put down our antenna communications. The infantry faltered, but did not run, although one of the company's defenders was literally razed to the ground.


The main striking force of the night assault was the columns of armored vehicles that came out of Malaya Tokmachka, which included 40 tanks, some of which were the same Leopards.


The success of the battle was predetermined by the professional work of the special forces of the 45th and 22nd brigades. Being in the gray zone, our "specialists" with a sufficient time margin spotted vehicles moving without headlights, allowing two pairs of Ka-52s to reach the battlefield in time.


Approaching the minefields, the enemy launched mine-clearing Zmei-Gorynychi (UR-77 mine clearer), and tanks with trawls went forward, clearing the way for the Leopards and armored vehicles with infantry. The brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trained at the NATO training grounds, having passed the minefields, would probably have quickly turned into battle formation and moved to our defenders ... But they were shot in a night battle that was mesmerizing with its drama. ATGMs, artillery, and, of course, helicopters hit the armored vehicles that stood in the minefields from all sides.


As a result, by morning, 20 damaged and destroyed enemy tanks (including 4 Leopards) and 15 armored vehicles remained on the battlefield, which neither we nor the enemy can evacuate from the minefield.


In a word, all of ours - from the commander of the 58th OA, Lieutenant General Ivan Popov, to the anti-aircraft gunners, helicopter pilots, infantry, artillery and special forces, worked as a single, well-oiled mechanism.


The legendary commander of the 58th Vladimir Shamanov would have been pleased with both his army and his 45th brigade. Well, he would also be very pleased with one more of his good friends ...

The daytime offensive in this sector has become a miserable parody of the night one: covered by our artillery, the armored column of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not even reach our minefields.

More at the link above. 30 tanks in 2 hours is more a turkey shoot than an offensive, not even reaching the 2nd lines of the layered defense. Again this is just a pathetic waste of resources/men's lives.

BBC report of Ukrainians fleeing conscription to Romania:

Quote:

The Romanian rescue service, alerted by his wife, found him barely alive after four days and three nights in the mountains. He was airlifted to safety by helicopter.

"What would you answer if someone called you a coward?" I ask, as gently as I can.
"I have no country," he says awkwardly. "I just have a family."

In Baia Mare, a large, relatively prosperous Romanian city near the Ukrainian border, I meet Veronika, formerly a doctor in Zaporizhzhia, a town which has faced constant Russian rocket attacks.

She left her job and took her son to safety in Romania, a few weeks before his 18th birthday, to keep him out of the army. She shows me a photograph. A studious youth, with glasses and a Harry Potter look.
"He has a very good brain but physically he's not strong. A country can't just have military service. A country must have brains. I think my son is the brain of my country in future."
Yet another case of the FBI Gestapo censoring Americans, this time on behalf of Ukrainian nazi's:

Quote:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has aided a Ukrainian intelligence effort to censor social media users and obtain their personal information, leaked emails reveal.

In March 2022, an FBI Special Agent sent Twitter a list of accounts on behalf of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Ukraine's main intelligence agency. The accounts, the FBI wrote, "are suspected by the SBU in spreading fear and disinformation." In an attached memo, the SBU asked Twitter to remove the accounts and hand over their user data.

The Ukrainian government's FBI-enabled targets extend to members of the media. The SBU list that the FBI provided to Twitter included my name and Twitter profile. In its response to the FBI, Twitter agreed to review the accounts for "inauthenticity" but raised concerns about the inclusion of me and other "American and Canadian journalists."

The FBI's attempt to ban Twitter accounts at the request of Ukrainian intelligence is among the most overt requests for censorship revealed to date in the Twitter Files, a cache of leaked communications from the social media giant.

Utterly infuriating.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
The folks calling for censorship can't be the "good guys"
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
rgag12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Well seems apparent now that the offensive is going as well as most people who soberly could look at the situation predicted. The Ukrainians were given a bunch of western weapons, but the Ukrainians are a poorly led and undisciplined force. Doesn't matter how good your weapons are if you can't properly use them. 4-5 months of training on a patchwork of 50 different weapon systems isn't going to change that.

The Russians aren't Iraqis, they weren't going to fold up like a cheap suit at the first sight of a Bradley or Leopard. They aren't undermanned defending unfortified positions (Kharkiv), or defending the wrong bank of a major river with no hope of holding it long-term (right bank of Kherson).

If a breakthrough is not achieved by next week then I highly doubt this offensive will result in anything but the stalemate status quo we've become accustomed to. Which unfortunately for the west means wasting billions upon billions of dollars and more deaths. However, one good thing that will result from this though is the choice will be clear: Either we can spend a couple trillion dollars of the next 5-6 years supplying and re-training a Ukrainian army that might be able to do something, or we can talk peace and get them to join NATO.
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Stat Monitor Repairman
How long do you want to ignore this user?


Ukraine is shaping up to be a forever war. A proving ground for advanced weapons and a hotbed of political graft.

A year-and-a-half in and the Ukraine war is extremely popular. Both the US and Russia and China have no motivation for this war to end anytime soon. No entity is leaning in the direction of a peaceful resolution to this conflict. Both sides are trenched in, and the sentiment is all or nothing.

The end game to all this is that a bunch of poor people in Africa and Asia are going to starve to death as the breadbasket of Europe is completely destroyed.

WW3 drones on throughout Europe, north Africa and the middle east.
fka ftc
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Stat Monitor Repairman said:



Ukraine is shaping up to be a forever war. A proving ground for advanced weapons and a hotbed of political graft.

A year-and-a-half in and the Ukraine war is extremely popular. Both the US and Russia and China have no motivation for this war to end anytime soon. No entity is leaning in the direction of a peaceful resolution to this conflict. Both sides are trenched in, and the sentiment is all or nothing.

The end game to all this is that a bunch of poor people in Africa and Asia are going to starve to death as the breadbasket of Europe is completely destroyed.

WW3 drones on throughout Europe, north Africa and the middle east.
Forever War = Infinite Grift
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
PlaneCrashGuy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Infinite grift was always the plan. Only the blind couldn't see that, and only the highest rerars among us still cannot.
I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
As with LBJ's 'great society' it's also a mechanism/means to continuously impoverish/enslave (and kill off) a huge part of the ('undesirables' as Margaret Sanger would put it) population, toward a political class' objective. Serfs who resist can be quickly killed off, or silenced/imprisoned as we know the Ukrainian totalitarians/our FBI are happy to support.

Onward, with the 'counter-offensive:'


Quote:

Quote:

The Ukrainian forces don't seem to sweep mines in advance of the attack. They do it with a couple of mine clearing vehicles when they attack and behind them the Ukrainian armour advance in a column that is an easy target for Russian AT assets. In a way it resembles the Russian armour columns in the beginning of the war. Columns that took catastrophic losses to Ukrainian AT weapons, a history now repeated by the Ukrainians.

In advance of an offensive, the attacking side must secure air and artillery superiority, so they can shield their mine clearing operations and troop concentrations. And at the same time destroy the defenders command structures and logistical hubs. Finally when they attack their air and artillery superiority can be utilised to severely hurt and slow down enemy reserves to secure breakthroughs. This becomes even more important if the enemy has large reserves and a defence in depth.

On the Zaporizhia front the situation is the opposite, so Ukrainian forces hasn't many choices how to act. One method is to achieve strategic surprise as in the Kharkiv offensive last autumn. That option doesn't exist on the Zaporizhia front. In general I would say that an attack towards an enemy who has all the benefits RuAF has on the Zaporizhia front is suicidal.

The only way Ukrainian (and western) commanders even could have contemplated that such an offensive could succeed was if
[ol]
  • western weapons were much superior to Russian weapons,
  • western trained soldiers much superior to Russian soldiers and
  • Russian morale was dismal.
  • [/ol]
    If all these factors where true, UkrAF might have had a chance to succeed, but nothing seems to corroborate those assumptions.

    Many on the Ukrainian and western side had anticipated hard initial resistance from RuAF, but after 2-3 days fighting and advances of around 6-8 km, they expected an increasing collapse of Russian morale and the real breakthroughs would come. Nothing of this seems to be other than wishful thinking, since fighting still are in the gray zone and Russian resistance are unbroken. At the same time Ukrainian forces take heavy casualties both in soldiers and vehicles.

    The offensive isn't over yet and the main Ukrainian attack fist remains with probably over 600 tanks and as many IFVs around Orikhiv. But the future for the Ukrainian offensive looks bleak if their vanguard is destroyed before they reach the Russian main defence lines. The probability is large that Ukraine has to use up their main force to get through a couple of the Russian defencelines and then they will run out of forces to exploit any successes and be forced to withdraw.

    To summarise, the most likely outcome of the Ukrainian offensive is minor territorial gains at a
    horrendous cost.

    As I've said before it seems to be Kursk 2.0
    I agree with the above assessment.


    Horrible. Perhaps China and their boy Xiden (and son) will relent in this senselessness and agree to a truce sooner than later. I'm concerned it has gone so poorly the Russians will decide to proceed, indeed, with demanding a full surrender of Kiev/regime change, as the failure will lead to a weakening of EU resolve, etc.
    Ag with kids
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Ag with kids
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Your post above mine is LITERALLY about the counteroffensive...

    It's spring.

    WTF are you moving the goalposts on this one? Kiev?
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Your post above mine is LITERALLY about the counteroffensive...

    It's spring.

    WTF are you moving the goalposts on this one? Kiev?
    I apologize for your confusion I might have contributed to. The 'spring counter offensive' was wildly predicted for 10+ months but never happened. That one was a myth. They are now attacking (or probing anyway, with canon fodder), in mid-June, which is in the summer, even if 10 or so days before the official summer solstice.

    HTH.

    I don't know what your question about Kiev is pertaining to. Russian leadership has indicated that due to the attacks on Russia proper (and the dam) they are now committed to regime change in Kiev, as I'd linked above. The sanctions have failed utterly.

    After the offensive fails, I could see Russia either launching their own in a year, or, worse, settling into a long term stalemated front trading serf's lives for a continuation of the war until the Euro's run out of patience with Zelensky's cabal and he flee's or is otherwise dethroned.
    Ag with kids
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Your post above mine is LITERALLY about the counteroffensive...

    It's spring.

    WTF are you moving the goalposts on this one? Kiev?
    I apologize for your confusion I might have contributed to. The 'spring counter offensive' was wildly predicted for 10+ months but never happened. That one was a myth. They are now attacking (or probing anyway, with canon fodder), in mid-June, which is in the summer, even if 10 or so days before the official summer solstice.

    HTH.

    I don't know what your question about Kiev is pertaining to. Russian leadership has indicated that due to the attacks on Russia proper (and the dam) they are now committed to regime change in Kiev, as I'd linked above. The sanctions have failed utterly.

    After the offensive fails, I could see Russia either launching their own in a year, or, worse, settling into a long term stalemated front trading serf's lives for a continuation of the war until the Euro's run out of patience with Zelensky's cabal and he flee's or is otherwise dethroned.
    Oh cool.

    This thread is now redefining SPRING.

    This is AWESOME!!!!
    P.U.T.U
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Politicians and defense companies are smiling seeing how Ukraine is using the western equipment
    docb
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    P.U.T.U said:

    Politicians and defense companies are smiling seeing how Ukraine is using the western equipment

    I hope they keep spending your tax money for more weapons
    Whirligigs
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Your post above mine is LITERALLY about the counteroffensive...

    It's spring.

    WTF are you moving the goalposts on this one? Kiev?
    I apologize for your confusion I might have contributed to. The 'spring counter offensive' was wildly predicted for 10+ months but never happened. That one was a myth. They are now attacking (or probing anyway, with canon fodder), in mid-June, which is in the summer, even if 10 or so days before the official summer solstice.

    HTH.

    I don't know what your question about Kiev is pertaining to. Russian leadership has indicated that due to the attacks on Russia proper (and the dam) they are now committed to regime change in Kiev, as I'd linked above. The sanctions have failed utterly.

    After the offensive fails, I could see Russia either launching their own in a year, or, worse, settling into a long term stalemated front trading serf's lives for a continuation of the war until the Euro's run out of patience with Zelensky's cabal and he flee's or is otherwise dethroned.
    Oh cool.

    This thread is now redefining SPRING.

    This is AWESOME!!!!


    The fanboi thread basically predicted that Ukraine would absolutely destroy the Soviets in the counter offensive. Now the theme is 'well it would be expected to run into resistance. But just wait.' I give up with the 'LinkedIn hashtag' foreign policy crowd.
    PlaneCrashGuy
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    I've notified a lot of that too.

    "We always knew it would be hard to get the initial breakthrough"

    -Greg from accounting typed in his office in Conroe Texas
    I'm not sure if people genuinely believe someone is going to say, "Wow, if some people say I'm a moron for not believing this, it clearly must be true."

    It's not much a persuasive argument. It really just sounds like a bunch of miniature dachshunds barking because the first one one barked when it thought it heard something.
    Stat Monitor Repairman
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Whirligigs said:

    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    nortex97 said:

    Ag with kids said:

    Well, at least folks aren't posting daily about how there's no counteroffensive. Now they're just posting to criticize the counteroffensive they said wouldn't happen.



    IT'LL NEVER HAPPEN AND NOW THAT IT HAS, IT'S TERRIBLE!!!!
    The spring counter-offensive was a myth.

    They really are throwing away human lives in the summer one.

    But at least you get to feel like you are winning a message board point. Congrats.
    Your post above mine is LITERALLY about the counteroffensive...

    It's spring.

    WTF are you moving the goalposts on this one? Kiev?
    I apologize for your confusion I might have contributed to. The 'spring counter offensive' was wildly predicted for 10+ months but never happened. That one was a myth. They are now attacking (or probing anyway, with canon fodder), in mid-June, which is in the summer, even if 10 or so days before the official summer solstice.

    HTH.

    I don't know what your question about Kiev is pertaining to. Russian leadership has indicated that due to the attacks on Russia proper (and the dam) they are now committed to regime change in Kiev, as I'd linked above. The sanctions have failed utterly.

    After the offensive fails, I could see Russia either launching their own in a year, or, worse, settling into a long term stalemated front trading serf's lives for a continuation of the war until the Euro's run out of patience with Zelensky's cabal and he flee's or is otherwise dethroned.
    Oh cool.

    This thread is now redefining SPRING.

    This is AWESOME!!!!
    The fanboi thread basically predicted that Ukraine would absolutely destroy the Soviets in the counter offensive. Now the theme is 'well it would be expected to run into resistance. But just wait.' I give up with the 'LinkedIn hashtag' foreign policy crowd.
    It's been wild to watch all this go down.

    Starting with covid. and now moving on to this Ukraine deal.

    People adopt a position and fight on that position. Regardless of developments. It's full steam ahead.

    People are tribalistic. We've gotten to the point where people will bend reality so long as it means staying in line with the tribe.

    Lord of the flies type tribalism. Bloods and Cryps. Nobody is crossing to the other side. People locked in to their initial opinion. No cowboys fans crossing over to the Philadelphia Eagles. People stay stuck in one failed position.

    And that position is usually with their head stuck in the clothes dryer.
    GAC06
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Quote:

    People are tribalistic. We've gotten to the point where people will bend reality so long as it means staying in line with the tribe.


    Like claiming WWIII is happening over and over despite being wrong over and over?
    Stat Monitor Repairman
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    That grain has gotta get railed and stored and loaded on to ships.

    Every time I hear about infrastructure being destroyed or a ship sunk in the harbor, I'm thinking about grain not being where its supposed to be.

    It takes a lot of intact infrastructure to make all that happen. So the more of Ukraine that gets destroyed, the bigger the problem of mass starvation is gonna be.
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG


    Quote:

    If the above number is true, that would represent literally almost 50% of all supplied Leopards already gone and upwards of 15% of Bradleysin just a two hour fight.

    In fact, the same Ukrainian channel says that the Leopards didn't even get to fire a shot:
    Quote:

    The Ukrainian TG channel " Resident " writes:

    Our source in the OP said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been trying to storm the Russian first line of defense for the third day, but there was no result. Our equipment does not even have time to enter the battle when it is covered with artillery, which leads to heavy losses and a return to their positions. In three days we have lost more than ten Leopard tanks, which have not fired at the enemy


    Lot's of talk about how this was an 'elite' volunteer unit that led the assault with the best armor/training from the UFA etc., it being attempted next a similar, 3x larger attack to follow, but meh, I think it's unlikely.

    Quote:

    Lastly, I've talked a lot about this offensive being the last hurrah for Ukraine, particularly because of the upcoming election cycles for the U.S. and needing to 'clear the books' for the democrats. In fact, I was the first one to propagate this particular theory many months ago when people still fully professed that the West is with Ukraine for the long haul. I said that after this coming summer, the West will be under great pressure to wrap the war up. Now, we have the first such confirmation from the following Politico article:


    The simultaneous Trump indictments as the Biden bribery docs come out and the UFA summer counter-offensive flails betray some desperation from the swamp no doubt.

    Quote:

    The article starts off with a bang:
    Quote:

    Senior U.S. officials are convinced that future support for the Ukraine war and President Joe Biden's global reputation hinges on the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
    Succeed and Western military and economic aid will flow. Stumble or fail to meet expectations, and that support will likely dry up, sparking heightened calls for an expedited diplomatic resolution and hampering one of the White House's signature international achievements.
    Economist agrees:
    Quote:

    The Economist: "The next few weeks will determine the future not only of Ukraine, but of the entire security system in Europe. The moment for making a decision has come." The West is making a huge bet on a counteroffensive, which the President's Office and the General Staff do not even recognize yet.
    And there have been hints that Ukraine may already be under pressure to fold. For instance, Reznikov recently came out with a sudden uncharacteristic statement that Ukraine would be open to negotiations with Russia after all, if Russia just changed some of its objectives of the SMO. See this thread:
    The propagandists really have been delusional, imho.

    Sonar asks if they can hit the brakes now and seek a peace/truce or even toss Zelensky out etc:
    Quote:

    Ukraine's policy, until now, is virulently anti-Russian. Besides prohibiting people from speaking Russian, the Ukrainian policy has focused on eliminating every last vestige of Russian culture and history in Ukraine. Can Ukraine really hit the brakes and throw their policy machine into reverse and suddenly say, 'Never mind?" I doubt it.

    While the Western media persists in perpetuating the fantasy that Russia is suffering setbacks and looking for a way to extricate itself from the war in Ukraine, the facts on the ground show that Russia is inflicting massive casualties on Ukraine both men and materiel and that Russia is under no pressure to seek an end to the conflict. Nothing short of unconditional surrender will placate Russia.

    Ukraine, however, has ample reasons to bring the war to an end. Rational military commanders on the Ukrainian side must now understand that their prospects for inflicting a devastating blow to the Russian military forces is becoming less likely with each passing hour. Russia's advantages in terms of men, artillery, and air support are thwarting Ukraine's military ambitions. I do not discount the possibility that Ukraine's military commanders realize that continued attacks are futile and that securing a negotiated end to the conflict is their only hope of surviving. If this report is true it signals a growing rift between the military and political leaders in Ukraine. The only solution is to overthrow the government of Volodomyr Zelensky by the military and sue for peace. If that happens it will mark the defeat of NATO. Count me as a skeptic. I think the blood shed will continue.
    Probably right.
    YouBet
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Sounds like fog of war so far on the offensive. Not much is known yet: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-achieves-mixed-success-in-counteroffensives-early-battles-says-u-k-e0b40334?st=7bb87pbgx7a0ldt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    fka ftc
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Stat Monitor Repairman said:

    That grain has gotta get railed and stored and loaded on to ships.

    Every time I hear about infrastructure being destroyed or a ship sunk in the harbor, I'm thinking about grain not being where its supposed to be.

    It takes a lot of intact infrastructure to make all that happen. So the more of Ukraine that gets destroyed, the bigger the problem of mass starvation is gonna be.


    To be honest, the Great Z needs to consider these things vs going around with his Uber-riffic Grifting Campaign. But we all know Biden is not looking to be paid in bread, he only takes cold hard cash.

    Bread would go stale by the time it went through the Biden laundrymat. And Hunter said he has all the flour he needs to cut his coke down for the crackpipe.
    "The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

    "You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG




    Here is a helpful list of Ukraine-related news/summary/analysis the past few years.



    Will be curious if Seymour has any fresh insights to current Ukraine-related events, today.

    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Good morning Xiden Ukraine Russia war followers. The ukes apparently re-oriented on the east to capture some tactically useless hamlets as a huge non-strategic win:

    Quote:

    So instead they've reconcentrated their efforts on the eastern wing near Velyka

    In that direction they are now experiencing relatively strong gains, or at least that's how it outwardly looks. But the truth is, the settlements/hamlets they've captured were already sort of in a gray zone that continues to switch hands daily. For instance Neskuchne which they appeared to have captured was already in their hands days ago and Russia took it back over.

    The main thinking is that here, Russia commands all the heights and these small hamlets are in the very low zone, which gives Russia a very favorable advantage in creating a killbox to rain artillery down on the AFU who've hubristically advanced inside of it:


    Quote:

    Quote:

    The 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation uses the ISDM Zemledeliye remote mine-laying system against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region / southern Donetsk region.
    The Military Summary video above offers explanation for how Russia may have cleverly destroyed all those Leopards and Bradleys which dovetails with my own previous report I mentioned.

    In short: it appears that Russia is allowing the Western-supplied mine breachers/clearers to do their work, then allowing the Leopards and Bradleys to advance to a certain point. Then as the armor groupings are being engaged by Russian ambush forces and attack copters, the ISDM remote-mining system is being used to spray mines all over the rear retreat corridors of the AFU grouping.

    How the ISDM works is it's in some sense a mini MLRS that launches tubes which spread the mines all over a field en masse and quickly:
    I'm not a warfare expert nor familiar with this ISDM system, but it sounds horribly effective.



    More at the link.



    Teslag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    "tactically useless"

    Your tone is markedly different and more upbeat than the Russian milbloggers' over the last 48 hours.
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG




    I haven't had time to watch he full Seymour Hersh interview/catch a good summary, outside of this little write up. Sounds about right, not a lot of real news though.
    rgag12
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Teslag said:

    "tactically useless"

    Your tone is markedly different and more upbeat than the Russian milbloggers' over the last 48 hours.


    I'd be more optimistic if Ukraine had a war economy at its back and was able to churn out replacement equipment at a steady rate to replenish their losses. Reality is, is that it took a year for all of Europe to transfer over a significant portion of its equipment to Ukraine, and it appears the west isn't able to manufacture military equipment fast enough to replace what Ukraine is losing.

    My guess is Ukraine is going to eventually make it to the Russian main defensive lines after weeks of fighting, they will have lost so much equipment and men that their attacks on Russia's actual defenses will prove fruitless. They then will claim "victory" and ask for 500 billion more in donations from the west to attack the main Russian defensive lines in summer 2024. All the while Russia goes 10km further back and makes an even more defensive preparations behind the current one, waiting for the west to tire of giving Ukraine trillions of dollars.
    Rongagin71
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    rgag12 said:

    Teslag said:

    "tactically useless"

    Your tone is markedly different and more upbeat than the Russian milbloggers' over the last 48 hours.


    I'd be more optimistic if Ukraine had a war economy at its back and was able to churn out replacement equipment at a steady rate to replenish their losses. Reality is, is that it took a year for all of Europe to transfer over a significant portion of its equipment to Ukraine, and it appears the west isn't able to manufacture military equipment fast enough to replace what Ukraine is losing.

    My guess is Ukraine is going to eventually make it to the Russian main defensive lines after weeks of fighting, they will have lost so much equipment and men that their attacks on Russia's actual defenses will prove fruitless. They then will claim "victory" and ask for 500 billion more in donations from the west to attack the main Russian defensive lines in summer 2024. All the while Russia goes 10km further back and makes an even more defensive preparations behind the current one, waiting for the west to tire of giving Ukraine trillions of dollars.
    Wouldn't it make more sense to think that Ukraine will try to break through at a weak point (or two) and flank the strong defensive points?
    I'm not saying that will happen, but it is probably what Ukraine is probing to find.
    My understanding is that the main attack force is still in reserve.
    First Page Last Page
    Page 40 of 261
     
    ×
    subscribe Verify your student status
    See Subscription Benefits
    Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.