aggrad02 said:
BusterAg said:
aggrad02 said:
You mean "just as worse" as Obama and Bush W.
Everything else you said, I've already said. You just have a different opinion of Trumps part in.
And once again, price increases are not instantaneous with monetary increases. 3.9 Trillion in 2020 was going to and did cause inflation.
What percentage do you think?
Of the 20% real inflation we have today, how much would prices have increased if the 2021 deficit was lower than GDP growth?
My guess would be around 16% (2% more to Bidens policies and 2% more to Energy prices, hang that on a combo Biden/War.
This is absolutely absurd. To assume that changes to the money supply in 2019 can not have any impact on inflation until 2022 is ridiculous.
In fact, you can predict inflation almost perfectly by taking the size of M2 for any given year compare it to the GDP for that exact year, and predict the inflation for that specific year.
People that don't believe that there is no link between M2 and inflation believe Modern Monetary Theory, and they have been proven wrong.
People that believe that changes to M2 in 2018 won't influence inflation until 2022 post on Texags under aggrad02, and have a total universe of 1 person.
Here is an article that talks a bit about this subject. I would love to hear why you think you are right, and Steve Hank is wrong. Furthermore, I would love to hear why you think that the quantitative theory of money held for so well (except for when we were in lockdowns) in the past, but is somehow wrong when it comes to predicting 2022 inflation.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-printing-money-supply-m2-raises-prices-level-inflation-demand-prediction-wage-stagnation-stagflation-federal-reserve-monetary-policy-11645630424#:~:text=The%20money%20supply%20as%20measured,rate%20of%2012.6%25%20a%20year.What I think you did is picked a number that grew in Trump's admin, and tried to pin Biden's inflation on that number. By focusing on M2 growth in 2020, and ignoring the proportion of that growth compared to the economy, and the crazy fiscal policies of this administration, you are quite clearly showing that you are cherry picking.
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