techno-ag said:

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hph6203 said:

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believing that demand for them fell by 80% in a country overnight while it didn't occur in any other market and believing that Tesla's sales fell by 99.9% for the same period without a more reasonable explanation is pretty wild.

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Quote where I said that?

Quote:

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Doubling down and claiming the reasonable explanation is indicative of zealotry is doubly wild.

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No. I said you guys are zealots, not that a "reasonable explanation" (by your standards) is indicative of zealotry. You guys really are. Heck, Salute the Vaccine even changed his username to Teslag. Come on, you gotta admit that's fanboy level zealotry right there.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. You're allowed to be zealous about whatever in this country. But an analysis of your arguments, even prognostications as to which tack y'all will try, is certainly within the bounds of civil discourse.

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I figured you read the article you posted in a rush to justify your perspective. Only zealots would post something without actually reading it, and we have established you are definitely not that, so you must have just forgotten.

What it said was that the broader EV market in Korea was down 80% from December to January and that Tesla had only one sale during the month, a reduction from over 1000 vehicles in December down to one in a single month. That's 99.9%.

The fact that another poster changed their name to Teslag to troll people that say EVs are terrible has nothing to do with me. I am not on "team" anything. I'm looking at the market, I'm looking at the benefits and negatives of EVs and the emerging technologies surrounding them, and coming to the conclusion they are going to grow in a lumpy way from here. I'm not here intending to troll people or convince them to buy an EV, I'm just discussing the technology as it advances and clarifying points to people who don't follow the topic that closely, whether they individually are curious about it or not because someone else might read their careless posting of information without attempting to understand what the information means and conclude incorrectly that the person who is posting an article they haven't read might know what they're talking about.

People who might not know that EV prices have been falling for over a decade and that recent price cuts aren't a total aberration in the history of the product category. Those people might not know much of anything about what they're discussing and might need a little help getting more understanding why someone else might believe that EVs are going to be a significant portion of the market that isn't based upon a "green" energy justification.

nortex97 said:

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The biggest takeaway from me is how pervasive government incentives/subsidies have to be, in various ways/mechanisms all over the world, for them to sell.

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Except that in 2022 Tesla had record sales and was one of the best selling cars in the US without a tax incentive.

Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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The biggest takeaway from me is how pervasive government incentives/subsidies have to be, in various ways/mechanisms all over the world, for them to sell.

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Except that in 2022 Tesla had record sales and was one of the best selling cars in the US without a tax incentive.

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Aren't over half of sales in California? Does California have their own subsidy?

bmks270 said:

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Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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The biggest takeaway from me is how pervasive government incentives/subsidies have to be, in various ways/mechanisms all over the world, for them to sell.

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Except that in 2022 Tesla had record sales and was one of the best selling cars in the US without a tax incentive.

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Aren't over half of sales in California? Does California have their own subsidy?

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Somewhat misleading. In states that don't allow direct sales you must buy your car in California prior to having it shipped to you. I had to do this when I bought mine. My place of purchase was in California. But I had to pay use tax in Texas once I took delivery.

About 1/3rd of Tesla sales are in California. They currently don't have any state level incentives, and the Bay Area has low income incentives that are total fantasy level stuff because the income limits are too low to both qualify for and afford a vehicle. Have to make less than something like $45,000 in the Bay Area.

I could be wrong about some of those details. I don't follow California non-sense closely. They were definitely available in 2022, but vehicle prices were also ~$20k higher in 2022.

Not shocking. CA spends money like candy for those unicorn farts.

I am no expert but found this.

https://insideevs.com/news/680693/tesla-customers-get-email-about-15000-incentives/

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Tesla appears to have acknowledged California's state incentives and is encouraging buyers in the state to take advantage of them. In an email to the Golden State's Tesla users, the brand stated that up to $15,000 were available in incentives and tax credits.

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And the 45000 income cutoff is false now true for a single person because of a recent (last year) law change.

Quote:

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Although, note the eligibility requirements for the rebates. Buyers cannot obtain CVRP benefits if their annual income as single filers is over $135,000. For heads of households and joint filers, the income limits are $175,000 and $200,000, respectively. The CVRP is designed to aid middle- and low-income individuals and also offers increased rebates for bigger households.

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bmks270 said:

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Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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The biggest takeaway from me is how pervasive government incentives/subsidies have to be, in various ways/mechanisms all over the world, for them to sell.

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Except that in 2022 Tesla had record sales and was one of the best selling cars in the US without a tax incentive.

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Aren't over half of sales in California? Does California have their own subsidy?

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Quit ruining it for him.

CVRP is closed for applications as of November last year.

Yep. The CA pols are pissed at Elon. How the worm turns.

It's really more that California is already approaching 30% of new car sales being EVs and it's really not necessary, with the re-introduction of the federal EV tax credit, to subsidize a $38,000 vehicle down to $23,000. A Model 3 doesn't need to be less than a Corolla for someone to want to buy it. Something like half of all EVs sold in California are not Teslas. It's not retributive against Elon, it's just California can't afford to pay 20% of all vehicle sales.

Electric cars are much more efficient at converting energy to motion.

"For every dollar of petrol you put, you get just 20 cents’ worth of driving motion. The other 80 cents is wasted along the way – most of it as heat from the engine.

Electric cars are much better at… pic.twitter.com/FTFg8Ofo5A

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 9, 2024

Bubblez said:

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Electric cars are much more efficient at converting energy to motion.

"For every dollar of petrol you put, you get just 20 cents’ worth of driving motion. The other 80 cents is wasted along the way – most of it as heat from the engine.

Electric cars are much better at… pic.twitter.com/FTFg8Ofo5A

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 9, 2024

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This overstates the efficiency of EVs even though they are more efficient. You also need to look at the efficiency to make the fuel/energy that goes into the car.
For gasoline, depending on how you measure it and the quality of crude used, refineries and pipelines are between 80-90% efficient.
The average fossil fueled plant is just under 40% efficient and fossil fuels are a little under 60% of electricity generation in the US. The other 40+% could be viewed as 90%+ efficient since the others use a virtually limitless fuel source relative to the energy produced.

EV's just aren't anywhere near 'as good' as a substitute for most, even taking out the politics and looking just at the practical/cost comparisons;

Quote:

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When Pew Research Center asked Americans in July 2023 about their views of EVs, 50% of those surveyed replied that they were "not too or not at all likely" to purchase one, while 38% said that they were "somewhat or very likely" to do so. Chief amongst EV skeptics' gripes were concerns about range, charging speed, and price.

The simple fact is that many Americans won't consider switching to an EV until EVs are functionally equivalent to gasoline-powered vehicles and similarly priced. Gas vehicles today have a median range of around 400 miles, refuel in under five minutes, and typically cost between $25,000 and $45,000. The EV models currently sold in the U.S. have a median range of 250 miles, recharge 10% to 80% in 18 to 40 minutes, and have a median cost of $57,000. For consumers who just want an affordable, convenient car that works, an EV can be a tough sell.

The price divide is more stark when you consider that there are only eight EVs available for under $40,000 in the U.S., all sedans or small SUVs. By itself, automaker Toyota sells 11 gas models in that price category cars, SUVs, trucks, and vans among them.

Parity in cost, range, and charging

So, when will EVs reach true parity with gas cars? To put some concrete metrics on the question, when will there be an EV that has 400 miles of range, recharges in 10 minutes or less, and costs $30,000?
Recent trends provide reason for optimism. In 2011, the median range for an EV was 80 miles. By 2022, it was 250. Between September 2022 and September 2023, the average cost of an EV in the U.S. fell 22.4%. This boon for consumers was made possible by falling battery pack prices and rising battery energy density. The energy density of lithium-ion batteries has increased by more than eight timessince 2008 while costs have fallen nearly 90%.

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Nope.

Does this take into account how the electricity that goes into charging and electric vehicle is produced? You could say the same thing about a gas engine and the refining process in the amount of energy it takes to produce the gallon of gas, gas or diesel. But these need to be factored into the equation. You can't just say if there are more efficient without taking into account how the energy that runs them is produced.

If an electric vehicle is charged from a garage that is powered by a Tesla wall charger from Tesla roof. There was an expense to create those systems and pay by the consumer to be installed. Are those cost being factored into the examples?

jt2hunt said:

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Does this take into account how the electricity that goes into charging and electric vehicle is produced? You could say the same thing about a gas engine and the refining process in the amount of energy it takes to produce the gallon of gas, gas or diesel. But these need to be factored into the equation. You can't just say if there are more efficient without taking into account how the energy that runs them is produced.

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It doesn't. I posted above the approximate efficiencies of the fuel/electricity production.

Btw, the newest large combined cycle gas fired plants are more like 65% efficient. A large portion of new power production is from those units and when combined with cheap gas in the US is the biggest driver these days as to why coal produced electricity is declining here.

Never would have sold those cars without that $15,000 subsidy. And yes a 40% discount. But you do CA idiocy however you like.

LOL. German EV sales plunge 55 percent.

Quote:

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Like much of the rest of the world, Germany previously provided tax incentives to citizens purchasing
electric vehicles. However, in December, the nation's government abruptly decided to end the incentive program, and in the aftermath EV sales have cratered.

Compared to December 2023, sales of new electric vehicles were down 54.9 percent, while sales of plug-in hybrids were down 19.6 percent in the first month of 2024. On the other hand, the markets for vehicles with internal combustion engines were up more than 9 percent +9.1 percent for gas, +9.5 percent for diesel.

The small rebound of ICE vehicles wasn't enough to prop up the automotive market, which shrank by 11.7 percent as compared to December 2023, per Auto Business Insight. Although the sudden end of tax incentives undoubtedly made the drop in EV sales more acute, it's not the only reason for falling sales.

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Get rid of the subsidies/mandates, and these things will wind up down around 5 percent of the market, where they belong.

nortex97 said:

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LOL. German EV sales plunge 55 percent.

Quote:

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Like much of the rest of the world, Germany previously provided tax incentives to citizens purchasing
electric vehicles. However, in December, the nation's government abruptly decided to end the incentive program, and in the aftermath EV sales have cratered.

Compared to December 2023, sales of new electric vehicles were down 54.9 percent, while sales of plug-in hybrids were down 19.6 percent in the first month of 2024. On the other hand, the markets for vehicles with internal combustion engines were up more than 9 percent +9.1 percent for gas, +9.5 percent for diesel.

The small rebound of ICE vehicles wasn't enough to prop up the automotive market, which shrank by 11.7 percent as compared to December 2023, per Auto Business Insight. Although the sudden end of tax incentives undoubtedly made the drop in EV sales more acute, it's not the only reason for falling sales.

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Get rid of the subsidies/mandates, and these things will wind up down around 5 percent of the market, where they belong.

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Hey there's nuance, like Korea only sold one Tesla last month. They only sold one last year, too. So, nothing to see here about sales falling in Germany, either. Those probably aren't even Teslas.

(I think I'm getting the hang of this.)

I'm all for getting rid of the subsidies and let the market shake out where it will shake out. I will bet a lot of money it will be above 5% of new car sales over the next decade.

techno-ag said:

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bmks270 said:

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Teslag said:

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nortex97 said:

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The biggest takeaway from me is how pervasive government incentives/subsidies have to be, in various ways/mechanisms all over the world, for them to sell.

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Except that in 2022 Tesla had record sales and was one of the best selling cars in the US without a tax incentive.

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Aren't over half of sales in California? Does California have their own subsidy?

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Quit ruining it for him.

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Already explained above. I have never lived in California yet I've bought a Tesla in calfornia. So did most Tesla owners in Texas prior to 2023.

I don't know if you know this, but I don't run or even live in California. I'm just telling you the reality rather than your emotional perception. You could've just stayed out of it by not trying to correct me when you were wrong.

There's quite a few EV sales in California and across the country that receive zero subsidy, because the vast majority of models do not qualify for federal tax credits and the majority of states don't have local subsidies.

Kansas Kid said:

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I'm all for getting rid of the subsidies and let the market shake out where it will shake out. I will bet a lot of money it will be above 5% of new car sales over the next decade.

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It didn't even fall below 5% of the market in the example he provided and the significant drop in sales is in part explainable by the fact that people were not unaware of the changes to the incentives, which causes a pull forward of sales and a subsequent drop. If they had announced a removal of the incentive and then didn't remove the incentive when the time came they still would have seen a drop in sales.

techno-ag said:

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hph6203 said:

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believing that demand for them fell by 80% in a country overnight while it didn't occur in any other market and believing that Tesla's sales fell by 99.9% for the same period without a more reasonable explanation is pretty wild.

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Quote where I said that?

Quote:

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Doubling down and claiming the reasonable explanation is indicative of zealotry is doubly wild.

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No. I said you guys are zealots, not that a "reasonable explanation" (by your standards) is indicative of zealotry. You guys really are. Heck, Salute the Vaccine even changed his username to Teslag. Come on, you gotta admit that's fanboy level zealotry right there.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. You're allowed to be zealous about whatever in this country. But an analysis of your arguments, even prognostications as to which tack y'all will try, is certainly within the bounds of civil discourse.

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You are one of the biggest zealots on this thread concerning EV.

I'm not emotional. I sense you are emotional because you did not understand what I posted. Read closer.

Hybrids, Tonya. Hybrids are the way.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/hybrid-vehicles-proving-better-alternative-174822874.html

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As demand for electric vehicles slows, car buyers are shifting focus to hybrids, Dunne Insights CEO Michael Dunne tells Yahoo Finance.

Dunne argues we've reached "the end of the honeymoon" for pure electric cars like Tesla (TSLA). After an initial surge, consumers now want "a better alternative" due to the high costs and unreliable charging infrastructure for EVs. With consumers desiring something more "practical," Dunne sees "a surge in demand" for hybrids. Additionally, global EV demand is declining as "range anxiety" persists, Dunne notes.

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This is what we should be zealous about, if anything.

PHEVs will ultimately be an advertising mechanism for pure electric as people come to the realization that they never fill up their gas tanks. As the price of EVs fall below PHEVs people are going to ask themselves "why am I paying a premium for a feature I rarely use?" Especially as the time to charge and ubiquity of charging stalls improves.

Will all EV owners be fined and given suspended sentences when Trump is elected?

WolfCall said:

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Will all EV owners be fined and given suspended sentences when Trump is elected?

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Why would he? In the 2020 Presidential debate with Biden, Trump said " And I'm okay with electric cars too. I think I'm all for electric cars. I've given big incentives for electric cars but what they've done in California is just crazy."
Looks like he was ok with the subsidies even though they were enacted by Obama.

https://www.debates.org/voter-education/debate-transcripts/september-29-2020-debate-transcript/

End all the subsidies for EVs and all industries but unfortunately, that isn't likely to happen.

WolfCall said:

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Will all EV owners be fined and given suspended sentences when Trump is elected?

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What?

WolfCall said:

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Will all EV owners be fined and given suspended sentences when Trump is elected?

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Sure why not? Ev reparations!

Wowzers. They are desperate to hang onto market share.

Quote:

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Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), opens new tab has temporarily cut prices of some of its Model Y cars in the U.S. until Feb. 29, less than a month after the carmaker cut Model Y prices in Germany.

Tesla reduced prices for its Model Y rear-wheel drive and Model Y Long Range by $1,000 to $42,990 and $47,990 respectively, representing a discount of 2.3% and 2% from previous prices.
…
In January, Tesla also warned of "notably lower" sales growth this year as it focuses on the production of its next-generation electric vehicle, code-named "Redwood." The latest price cuts are expected to further weigh on Tesla' margins, already hurt by a price war that started more than a year ago.

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https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-temporarily-slashes-prices-model-y-us-2024-02-10/

They have the margins to do it. Others don't.