***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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eric76
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fullback44 said:

Putin over estimated his ability to take out Ukraine, he's generated a new monster in his own back yard. Ukraine is now a leader in drone technology and they cwn now produce all their own missiles including new ballistic & cruise missiles. If this war continues, I don't see Russia gaining more ground, I see both sides losing commercial assets in their cities. Ukraine will hammer the Russians refineries as well

I think that what the Ukraine is missing is missile defenses.
Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Quote:

NEW: Russia's second batch of Rassvet satellites appears to have failed to reach intended operational altitudes, marking another setback in Moscow's efforts to rapidly develop a Russian analogue to Starlink.

Russia is likely rushing to launch Rassvet satellites to compensate for the loss of Starlink connectivity over Ukraine.

Russia will likely continue struggling to establish an analogous version of the Starlink constellation unless it dramatically increases the number of successful Rassvet satellite launches.

Ukrainian strikes against Rassvet satellite production and launch sites threaten to further degrade Russia's ability to establish a successful constellation on a timeline Russia deems acceptable.

Other Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to remain in favor of conducting covert mobilization following Russia's September 18-20 State Duma elections and appears committed to sustaining his existing force generation mechanism.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met separately with People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 31 ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.

Russian officials continue to implicitly threaten NATO in the Arctic as part of its rhetorical efforts to deter NATO defensive and cohesion measures in the region.

US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials appear to be resuming limited bilateral negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Sumy, Borova, and Slovyansk directions and the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction and Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Belgorod Oblast, including Ozon (Wildberries' main competitor) marketplaces, on the night of August 30 to 31.

Russia launched one Kh-59 cruise missile and 121 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Rossticus
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RikkiTikkaTagem
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Rossticus said:




Immediately thought of this.

Ag with kids
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Rossticus said:



Ukraine needs to respond by blowing the Kremlin and Red Square up. Do it at 2-4 AM so the only people there are probably military or government.

The Kremlin/Red Square are huge points of pride in Russia. Losing them forever would be a huge propaganda blow for Ukraine.

AND, they show they're not savages like Russia - bombing civilians.
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txags92
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Ag with kids said:

Rossticus said:



Ukraine needs to respond by blowing the Kremlin and Red Square up. Do it at 2-4 AM so the only people there are probably military or government.

The Kremlin/Red Square are huge points of pride in Russia. Losing them forever would be a huge propaganda blow for Ukraine.

AND, they show they're not savages like Russia - bombing civilians.

And then Putin goes for full mobilization of 1.5 million more troops with the full throated support of every red blooded Russian. Ukraine needs to keep hitting the things that will make life really difficult for the average Russian (wilberries, refineries, etc.) while not giving Putin a big strike to use for propaganda to justify the mobilization. Hitting civilian targets or beloved landmarks in Russia would be a huge mistake right now.
Ag with kids
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txags92 said:

Ag with kids said:

Rossticus said:



Ukraine needs to respond by blowing the Kremlin and Red Square up. Do it at 2-4 AM so the only people there are probably military or government.

The Kremlin/Red Square are huge points of pride in Russia. Losing them forever would be a huge propaganda blow for Ukraine.

AND, they show they're not savages like Russia - bombing civilians.

And then Putin goes for full mobilization of 1.5 million more troops with the full throated support of every red blooded Russian. Ukraine needs to keep hitting the things that will make life really difficult for the average Russian (wilberries, refineries, etc.) while not giving Putin a big strike to use for propaganda to justify the mobilization. Hitting civilian targets or beloved landmarks in Russia would be a huge mistake right now.

Fair enough...
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txags92
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Ag with kids said:

txags92 said:

Ag with kids said:

Rossticus said:



Ukraine needs to respond by blowing the Kremlin and Red Square up. Do it at 2-4 AM so the only people there are probably military or government.

The Kremlin/Red Square are huge points of pride in Russia. Losing them forever would be a huge propaganda blow for Ukraine.

AND, they show they're not savages like Russia - bombing civilians.

And then Putin goes for full mobilization of 1.5 million more troops with the full throated support of every red blooded Russian. Ukraine needs to keep hitting the things that will make life really difficult for the average Russian (wilberries, refineries, etc.) while not giving Putin a big strike to use for propaganda to justify the mobilization. Hitting civilian targets or beloved landmarks in Russia would be a huge mistake right now.

Fair enough...

Believe me, my blood lust for high visibility revenge against Putin is there too. I just think it is exactly what Putin is trying to goad them into.
PJYoung
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MaroonStain
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fullback44 said:

Putin over estimated his ability to take out Ukraine, he's generated a new monster in his own back yard. Ukraine is now a leader in drone technology and they cwn now produce all their own missiles including new ballistic & cruise missiles. If this war continues, I don't see Russia gaining more ground, I see both sides losing commercial assets in their cities. Ukraine will hammer the Russians refineries as well


If?

Ukraine had been busting up Orc refineries for several months now
PJYoung
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Quote:

German defense entrepreneur Stefan Thumann argued sabotage operations carried out by Moscow against his country are an "act of war … controlled and coordinated here by the Russian armed forces."

Speaking exclusively with Paul Ronzheimer of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network in a podcast episode released Tuesday, Thumann rejected the "hybrid war" label used by EU leaders to describe the Kremlin's campaign in Europe.

"Germany and Russia are at war," he insisted.

Quote:

Thumann's company, Donaustahl, supplies combat drones to Ukraine, according to the executive. He says he has been forced to live under round-the-clock protection after authorities uncovered an alleged Russian intelligence plan to poison him in 2025.

Authorities warned him shortly before Christmas that he could be in danger. "Yes, it comes from Russia. And yes, it is very serious your life is at risk," he said they told him. Within days, a suspected low-level operative had been detained.

Thumann said he had turned official addresses into surveillance-heavy "honeypots" locations deliberately designed to lure hostile actors into a trap. "The low-level operatives were only there to find out where I was," he added. "Then an assassination using poison was supposed to be carried out."

The threat has upended his life. Thumann said he now lives at undisclosed locations with bodyguards, has not seen his family for months, and has prepared a will and advance health care directive in case he is killed.

Rossticus
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txags92
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Rossticus said:



Germany doesn't have much of a military to threaten Russia with but Russia is definitely FA. Lets hope NATO helps them FO.
trip
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txags92 said:

Rossticus said:



Germany doesn't have much of a military to threaten Russia with but Russia is definitely FA. Lets hope NATO helps them FO.

I hope Germany goes covert into Russia and causes havoc.
Rossticus
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And now Ukraine threatens to come apart at the seams (as of yet unconfirmed).

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

"The situation is particularly difficult around Sloviansk, one of the largest Ukrainian-controlled cities remaining in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian positions are now seven to 10 kilometers (46 miles) from Sloviansk on the Lyman axis, Mayor Vadym Liakh said. Russian artillery is already capable of striking the city, which Liakh described as a frontline city…

An officer from Ukraine's 11th Army Corps told hromadske that Russia had reinforced the Sloviansk sector with its 123rd Brigade, previously involved in fighting around Siversk. Russian forces have gained positions from which they can threaten Ukrainian logistics, the officer said."

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

CyberBorshno analysis found hangars built on the shore of Lake Donuzlav near Novoozerne in Russian-occupied Crimea, likely intended to store uncrewed surface vessels. The group says it currently observes no active combat use of such boats by Russian forces. It assesses that the infrastructure likely points to testing and preparation for future deployment.

Waffledynamics
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If anyone is interested, this map is often touted as accurate in communities like Defmon3's. It also has more unit information than DeepStateUA.

https://www.uacontrolmap.com/map-viewer/
Rossticus
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I'm sure it's all just a coincidence…





twelve12twelve
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Rossticus said:

And now Ukraine threatens to come apart at the seams (as of yet unconfirmed).



More info regarding this shooting:

SouthTex99
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Rossticus
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They don't have to physically annex it. Just get them to fall back in line and defer to Russian demands. Russia much prefers to simply buy compliance. It's when folks decide that they can't be bought that things start exploding.
Rossticus
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shiftyandquick
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Propellor plane and rifleman taking bout Shahed drones.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1604662091369256
ABATTBQ11
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Rossticus said:

They don't have to physically annex it. Just get them to fall back in line and defer to Russian demands. Russia much prefers to simply buy compliance. It's when folks decide that they can't be bought that things start exploding.


Weird how they work like the mob
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

An arson attack hit Belgian defense-electronics firm BATS in Lige, with fires started at three separate points.

An anonymous group claimed responsibility, citing BATS' ownership ties to Israel's IAI/ELTA and saying this justified reducing the company "to ashes."

Meanwhile

Polish authorities say a fire at a WB Electronics drone-component facility was deliberate sabotage. The plant produces components for FlyEye and Warmate drones used by Poland and Ukraine.

Damage is estimated at at least $4 million, with no injuries. No suspect has been charged and any Russian involvement remains under investigation.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Flash: The enemy is producing additional electronic warfare systems against Starlink. Russian enterprises are purchasing components for the production of several hundred more systems (300400).

One system covers an area of 1525 sq. km. The enemy will try to protect all important objects in the occupied territory from our UAVs.

fullback44
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shiftyandquick said:

Propellor plane and rifleman taking bout Shahed drones.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1604662091369256

That's cool stuff ..
JB!98
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"It is time my brothers."Tolkaze handed the AK-47 rifle and ammo belt to his taller friend."

"There is no wall between a tactical and a strategic nuclear exchange, just a fuzzy line in the imagination of the amateurs and academics who advise their political leaders."

-Red Storm Rising

Having read "Red Storm Rising" at least 50 times, this crap is getting spooky.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Windy City Ag
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Quote:

Having read "Red Storm Rising" at least 50 times, this crap is getting spooky.


Yeah, Tom Clancy is looking prescient once again.

At least in the book the KGB and Politburo realize they have lost and have the General Secretary arrested.

I doubt Putin will be arrested in such a scenario. He will just suddenly die of a heart condition and his staff loyalists will all suddenly vanish as well.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

The Dallas group obtained unique blueprints showing the scale of modernization at Plant No. 9 in Yekaterinburg, suggesting that sanctions are not preventing Russia from scaling up artillery production. The plant is a key manufacturer of artillery barrels for the Koalitsiya and Msta self-propelled howitzers, as well as guns for the T-90, T-14, T-62, and T-72. Despite sanctions, the plant plans to install 22 units of foreign-made equipment.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Colombian soldiers of Ukraine's 23rd Assault Regiment continue offensive actions around Dvorichna, where they reached the Oskil river.

After clearing 3 forests which were occupied for a long time, they continued to the east and cut the Russian presence west of the Oskil river in two parts. Offensive actions are ongoing inside Dvorichna to clear this small town, with the final objective to clear Russian presence west of the Oskil river.

At the same time, Russian forces are slowly clearing the sallient east of Kupiansk further south, while they push further north. This offensive action is meant to disrupt Russian plans of a continuous frontline next year between the border to Kupiansk.

Naveronski
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I had no idea there were Colombian soldiers present in Ukraine.
TRM
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Years of experience fighting FARC forces
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