***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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PJYoung
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12:52p, 9/3/26
AG
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Waffledynamics
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1:51p, 9/3/26
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Naveronski • 1:52p, 9/3/26
AG
Naveronski said:
I had no idea there were Colombian soldiers present in Ukraine.

There are volunteers from multiple countries, including Latin American ones. There have been clips with Brazilians, too.
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74OA
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4:22p, 9/3/26
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(disregard)
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Waffledynamics
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10:05p, 9/3/26
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Rossticus
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8:21a, 9/4/26
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Rossticus
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8:24a, 9/4/26
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Waffledynamics
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9:57a, 9/4/26
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Waffledynamics
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10:12a, 9/4/26
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74OA
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10:56a, 9/4/26
AG
Latest SITREP.
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74OA
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11:31a, 9/4/26
AG
Ukraine's army is vastly different than the one it started the war with in 2022. It has now reached a new inflection point in its battlefield evolution.

"Two camps have emerged into view this last month, each associated with a senior official whose disputes became highly public and controversial. Put simply, this reflects a struggle of the old guard against the next generation."

ARMY OF THE FUTURE
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Rossticus
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5:22p, 9/4/26
Russia wants peace.

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Rossticus
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7:39a, 9/5/26
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74OA
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9:53a, 9/5/26
AG
Ukraine confirms it is operating its Saab AEW aircraft in combat. It passes intercept data to fighters so they can keep their radars off and avoid detection.

"Ukraine's defense ministry described the ASC 890 as one piece of a broader air combat network built around Western fighter aircraft. The country's F-16 fleet, the first jets of which arrived in 2024 from Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium, forms the core of that network, with pilot training conducted partly in Romania.
Ukraine has also begun receiving Mirage 2000 fighters from France starting in 2025 and expects up to 16 Gripen C/D fighters from Sweden, provided at no cost, with a newer Gripen E variant planned for delivery by 2030."

SAAB
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Rossticus
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12:40a, 9/6/26

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PJYoung
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8:35a, 9/6/26
AG


-Putin reportedly ranted to the two US envoys about how well Russia was doing on the frontline naming battlefield examples he had been given by his commanders.
-He then went on to talk about the root causes of the war in his eyes a part historical lessons, which he prefaced saying had not been addressed yet therefore the war could not end.
-US negotiators noted he saw himself in an increasingly strong position and therefore was hardening his negotiation positions, Putin explicitly asked Witkoff to pass messages about battlefield success to the Ukrainians.
-The conclusion was Putin was far away from wanting to end the war.
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CS78
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In reply to PJYoung • 8:50a, 9/6/26
This is why I think Trump took a harder stance on Ukraine after he met with Putin. He met with him and saw a man that was willing to continue the death on both sides, as long as it took, facts be damned.
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PJYoung
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10:11a, 9/6/26
AG
Putin's facts dont match actual facts on the ground at all because his inner circle has seen what happens to the bearers of bad news.
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Rossticus
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In reply to PJYoung • 2:25p, 9/6/26
The tell will be whether we behave in a way that indicates we see that as a reason to help Ukraine strengthen their position or a reason to attempt to force them to surrender to Russia's full terms.
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Rossticus
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2:27p, 9/6/26
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TomFoolery
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2:30p, 9/6/26
AG
The idea we are going to negotiate some unconditional Russian surrender as essentially a third party mediator is delusional. It's essentially asking Putin to voluntarily cede power.

That outcome requires a completely different step of actions.
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Rossticus
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In reply to TomFoolery • 3:11p, 9/6/26
Good thing that nobody here has expressed that as an expectation or made that argument.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TomFoolery • 3:15p, 9/6/26
AG
No one thinks there will be some kind of unconditional Russian surrender, just that the minimum acceptable terms should simply be a return to the status quo to avoid yet more aggression in the future, as Russia has learned that there are no consequences for taking bites out of their neighbors' territory.
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TomFoolery
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 3:19p, 9/6/26
AG
I'm not sure Russia differentiates between this and an unconditional surrender. Which would be on par for them not living in reality.
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benchmark
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:02p, 9/6/26
AG
Quote:
Jared Kushner says peace should be a "win-win" deal that helps Putin achieve his "aspirations."

Out of context. The author's compressed re-wording was engineered to imply Kushner agreed that Putin achieving his aspirations was necessary for a win-win peace deal. What Kushner actually said was:
Quote:
"President Putin…has certain objectives he expresses that he wants to achieve, but obviously there are different aspirations he has for his country that can also be achieved once this is concluded…"

He then followed with what he described as Trump's approach
Quote:
"In the business world, you think about things in the context of win-win…how do you create opportunities for both sides to do what's in their interest?"

And then he added that war is "negative-sum" while business and peace are "positive-sum."
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to benchmark • 6:45p, 9/6/26
AG
I think the problem is that Kushner and Trump haven't acknowledged exactly what those aspirations are, and everyone else sees them as continued expansion and increased influence and dominion. This isn't a company out to make a profit, it's a mob boss wanting to expand territory in a city without cops.

I get what he's saying, that Putin needs some kind of carrot, but Putin and his inner circle don't have the same calculus and values that we do or Trump does. They don't want a win-win, they want an, "I get everything and you maybe get something I'll take later." If they wanted a win-win they'd have offered some kind concessions years ago instead of throwing hundreds of thousands of bodies at getting 100% of what they want.


ETA Putin is a statist and imperialist. He believes in the value of the state over any and all individuals within it, except himself. He wants a return to Russian hegemony and a return to the glory propagandized by the Soviets. He doesn't have aspirations for the Russian people because he doesn't GAS about them. He has aspirations for Russia, and those will inevitably come at the world's expense.
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Rossticus
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In reply to benchmark • 6:46p, 9/6/26
The problem is that Kushner's assertion fails to account for the fact that Putin's aspirations within Ukraine and for the war are irrevocably tied to his aspirations for Russia after the war. Kushner isn't that stupid, and neither is anyone else who is paying attention. So why is trying to publicly blow smoke up Ukraine's butt?

Putin, Russian media, Russian military, and Russian citizens have all stated outwardly that the long term goal is the elimination of Ukraine as a nation, Ukrainian as an identity/culture, and Ukrainians as a people. You're not going to convince people to give a rat's ass about Putin's aspirations for Russia when your cessation of existence is tied to that.

So you're not going to agree to anything that doesn't put you in an ironclad position to either prevent it via negotiation or continue to fight against it.
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Rossticus
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6:53p, 9/6/26
Additionally, people will continue to be cynical of Witkoff and Kushner as mediating in good faith when Yuri Ushakov, after they depart, comes out and says that "economic issues and potentially large, mutually beneficial joint projects for Russia and America were discussed in considerable detail."

It makes it appear as if the US has an agenda tied to a favorable outcome for Russia. Whether that's true or not, it's not a terribly good look.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:57p, 9/6/26
AG
Yep. Any kind of agreement has to start with Russia agreeing to a permanent cessation of hostility and recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty and independence. As long as they're unwilling to do that, any concession by Ukraine is suicide. It's like a robber who just shot your wife insisting you put your gun down and give it to him so he won't have to shoot you and your kids too. Only an idiot is agreeing to that stupidity.
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Rossticus
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 7:33p, 9/6/26
Likewise, any third party encouraging you to put the gun down probably has ulterior motives which do not include your best interest. And you'll probably be highly skeptical of placing your trust in them with regard to much of anything.
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sam callahan
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8:23p, 9/6/26
Any peace deal that Putin can't spin as a win is a non-starter.

This war was him solidifying his power. If he loses any of his power, he is a dead man.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to sam callahan • 8:55p, 9/6/26
AG
sam callahan said:
If he loses any of his power, he is a dead man.

That can be arranged if he slips up and provides enough of an opportunity.
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Rossticus
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In reply to sam callahan • 9:22p, 9/6/26
sam callahan said:
Any peace deal that Putin can't spin as a win is a non-starter.

This war was him solidifying his power. If he loses any of his power, he is a dead man.


And therein lies the issue. Putin and his lackeys have laid out in no uncertain terms that victory is making Ukraine cease to exist as an independent nation. So, there's no way for him to spin compromise, good faith negotiation, ending the war in a way that doesn't leave Ukraine at their mercy.

So, what do you do? We keep trying to act like there's middle ground to be found at this point and Russia keeps explicitly saying that it's all or nothing.

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shiftyandquick
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:38p, 9/6/26
Rossticus said:

Trump wants to create a win-win. Where his cronies get rich and Russia gets rich.

The phrase that Reagan said was "Peace through strength."

This is not peace through strength. This is an embarrassment and travesty. And is doomed to failure of course.
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Rossticus
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12:23a, 9/7/26
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