txags92 said:JFABNRGR said:txags92 said:EastSideAg2002 said:
If Ukraine hits some civilian structures in moscow...
I still think that is absolutely what Putin is hoping they will do. He needs his population motivated to support a full mobilization. If Ukraine doesn't hit some civilian targets soon, I suspect Putin will do it for them and then blame it on Ukraine as a pretext for the full mobilization.
What does full mobilization look like:
In numbers of personnel?
Equipment and where does it come from?
How do they train, where do they train, how do they move them around?
Who is going to train them? Are they pulling people off the current front?
is russia currently set up to train in small numbers or is this 10,000 on a current base or two?
To me all of these above just become targets for long range UAVs currently running out of wildberry wharehouses and O&G.
The last partial mobilization was 300,000 is September 2022. I have seen reports that they would be targeting building a 2 million man force with the new mobilization, which would probably mean 500,000-600,000 in the new mobilization. The Ukrainians are expecting the orcs to mobilize 300k this year after the Duma elections in September and 300K next year. Based on past examples, I think any training they receive would be minimal and they are there to be fodder to soak up hits from drones and other munitions. The equipment question really depends on if they are going to try to go back to large scale mobile offensive tactics or if they are going to keep trying to advance by sending many small groups into an area on foot or using light vehicles (motorcyles, scooters, civilian cars, etc.).
As you said, yes, they will all become targets for drones and other weaponry, but their current tactics for the few places they are able to advance have been to try to overload the defensive capabilities with an endless supply of targets and eventually overwhelm them with numbers, not terribly unlike the human waves Iran used against Iraq in the 80s. At some point you just can't shoot them all fast enough to stop the mass as a whole from advancing.
Heres a gun. Run that way. Dont turn around or we will shoot you.
Training complete
