sclaff said:

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Kharkiv will be like Bakhmut - a meat grinder. I doubt the Russians improved much tactically. Defending an engagement area that is open terrain gives Ukraine a huge advantage.

Ag with kids said:

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74OA said:

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FJB24 said:

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This could be a big deal.

🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺 The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.

The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed. https://t.co/pO5h2Rg2MB pic.twitter.com/tdjATw7ZRu

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 19, 2024

But doesn't most of the gas it stores/sells through to Europe come from…Russia?

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EU countries plan to use the vast unused underground caverns at this site to store imported natural gas for winter. This strike means Europe can't access any gas already in storage there and must now also find alternative and equally vast storage sites to stock before winter. If Putin wanted to maximize the impact of this to pressure Europe, he should have waited until the onset of winter to strike. Now the EU has six months to find a workaround.

STORAGE

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If only there was a country that had vast amounts of natural gas and was friendly to the EU...

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That's us, of course, and we're already Europe's largest supplier of LNG. Problem is, where does Europe store enough to get it thru the winter?

74OA said:

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Ag with kids said:

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74OA said:

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FJB24 said:

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This could be a big deal.

🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺 The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.

The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed. https://t.co/pO5h2Rg2MB pic.twitter.com/tdjATw7ZRu

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 19, 2024

But doesn't most of the gas it stores/sells through to Europe come from…Russia?

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EU countries plan to use the vast unused underground caverns at this site to store imported natural gas for winter. This strike means Europe can't access any gas already in storage there and must now also find alternative and equally vast storage sites to stock before winter. If Putin wanted to maximize the impact of this to pressure Europe, he should have waited until the onset of winter to strike. Now the EU has six months to find a workaround.

STORAGE

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If only there was a country that had vast amounts of natural gas and was friendly to the EU...

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That's us, of course, and we're already Europe's largest supplier of LNG. Problem is, where does Europe store enough to get it thru the winter?

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Well, technically, they could store it here in the US and then get the supplies as needed. That's at least a workaround for right now.

Ag with kids said:

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74OA said:

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Ag with kids said:

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74OA said:

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FJB24 said:

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This could be a big deal.

🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺 The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.

The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed. https://t.co/pO5h2Rg2MB pic.twitter.com/tdjATw7ZRu

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 19, 2024

But doesn't most of the gas it stores/sells through to Europe come from…Russia?

---

EU countries plan to use the vast unused underground caverns at this site to store imported natural gas for winter. This strike means Europe can't access any gas already in storage there and must now also find alternative and equally vast storage sites to stock before winter. If Putin wanted to maximize the impact of this to pressure Europe, he should have waited until the onset of winter to strike. Now the EU has six months to find a workaround.

STORAGE

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If only there was a country that had vast amounts of natural gas and was friendly to the EU...

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That's us, of course, and we're already Europe's largest supplier of LNG. Problem is, where does Europe store enough to get it thru the winter?

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Well, technically, they could store it here in the US and then get the supplies as needed. That's at least a workaround for right now.

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Europe can't import and distribute LNG as fast as it consumes it. It needs sufficient on-the-continent reserve storage to draw from even as deliveries continue. If it fills existing storage above 90% and the winter is mild, it already has just enough storage to get by as last year demonstrated. The Ukrainian storage caverns would have provided a large buffer to add to what already exists and serve as insurance against a particularly cold winter and other contingencies.

Orc ADA takes down one drone but…..look at the backdrop on all those tracers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/AHLht9KnCl

It's quite impressive that Ukraine can augment its meager air force with drones and win naval engagements without a navy. This constitutes a Revolution in Military Affairs.

Quote:

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In the border districts of Chernihiv and Sumy regions Russian artillery shelled Luhivka, Druzhba, Bilopillya, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/19-may-in-the-border-districts-of-chernihiv-and-sumy-regions

Miscellaneous notes from the conflict. Scroll to map to put recent Russian advances near Kharkiv in perspective.

UPDATES

A lot can change. Still, probably for the best if Russia's going to keep massing troops and showing they they plan multiple offenses this year alone. Bleed them out and go when you're good and well ready. No point in another failed counteroffensive like in 2023.

Also, Zelensky said "I can't tell you", not "we won't".

notex said:

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No counter-offensive this year, or next, likely.

🇺🇦Zelensky isn't sure if Ukraine can make a counteroffensive by 2025 pic.twitter.com/4h0TBCXYtb

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 19, 2024

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Lucky for Ukraine, Russia can't either.

Teslag said:

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notex said:

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No counter-offensive this year, or next, likely.

🇺🇦Zelensky isn't sure if Ukraine can make a counteroffensive by 2025 pic.twitter.com/4h0TBCXYtb

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 19, 2024

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Lucky for Ukraine, Russia can't either.

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I disagree. They're planning to launch at least one more offensive this year, maybe more.

Russia's going hard right now.

Counteroffensive
noun
counteroffensive kaun-tr--fen(t)-siv

Synonyms of counteroffensive
: a large-scale military offensive undertaken by a force previously on the defensive

Waffledynamics said:

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Teslag said:

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notex said:

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No counter-offensive this year, or next, likely.

🇺🇦Zelensky isn't sure if Ukraine can make a counteroffensive by 2025 pic.twitter.com/4h0TBCXYtb

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 19, 2024

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Lucky for Ukraine, Russia can't either.

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I disagree. They're planning to launch at least one more offensive this year, maybe more.

Russia's going hard right now.

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Launching an offensive is much different than succeeding at an offensive

I have zero doubts Russia will sacrifice more of their people for no gains

Russia fights to not lose the war. Ukraine is looking for that elusive decisive victory.

Update from DeepStateUA:

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19528

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Soldiers of the State Border Service of the "Steel Border" brigade showed a video of the defeat of Muscovites in the northern part of Vovchansk

Two groups of Katsap infantry were discovered, one of which was located in a house in the northern part of the city, and the second reached the bridge of the western part, hiding under it. The Defense Forces, using FPV drones, inflicted damage on the enemy, destroying it.

The situation in the Vovchansk region remains difficult. The enemy continues to try to gain a foothold in the northern part of the city, build positions and even tries to break through to the west. Events are dynamic, the Defense Forces keep Muscovites under fire control, and units are also working to clean up the city. You can see different locations of battles and defeats by infantry. Immediately on the outskirts of the city, freaks even manage to loot houses. Fighting continues in the area of Gatishche and Staritsy.

In the area of the village of Liptsi, the Katsapas are unsuccessfully repeating their attempts to advance to the village. Our fighters meet the enemy with artillery and drone fire. Fighting continues in the area of Hlybokoy and Lukyantsi.

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Teslag said:

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So Russia blew up their own gas supply to Europe while Ukraine decimates their domestic refining?

Putin, ever the master strategist.

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that is going to take a long while to replace; guess Putin going scorched earth

Russia is using civilians and commercial ships for sabotage and spying in Europe, but governments hesitate to go public for fear of escalation & spreading panic. My report via ⁦@WSJ⁩ https://t.co/OC95WrpoJ6

— Bojan Pancevski (@bopanc) May 20, 2024

I had no idea the Russians were 'investing 1.5 billion euro's' In an expansion of the Belarusian Railroad. (Sorry, long tweet):

Can the Russians open a third front?

The recent Russian strategy of forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to withdraw troops from Donbass to stabilize the Kharkov region aimed to stretch the Ukrainian contingent, as I wrote days ago.

But what if the Russians open a third front… pic.twitter.com/AnNGSJS89w

— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) May 20, 2024

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The Russians are investing 1.5 billion euros in this Belarus railway corridor.

Coincidentally, this happens exactly at the moment when both countries confirmed joint military exercises for the first months of 2025, including the simulation of tactical nuclear weapons usage.

The Russians are probably planning to redeploy their military equipment to Belarus again. Belarusian Railways is already preparing to receive the trains, according to the Community of Belarusian Railroaders.

The railroaders clarify that Belarus is taking measures to ensure the secrecy of these equipment transports.

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Sitrep.

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Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-may-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-control-over-bilohorivka

This is laughable. Russia is not even in Bilohorivka.

Seems like the new boss wants to lie and look good.

Czechia's program to source over a million third-party artillery rounds for Ukraine is close to its first delivery, but it sounds as though Russia may be attempting to out-bid the Czechs to preempt purchases.

AMMO

More on the corvette and a minesweeper which are reportedly the latest victims of the Ukrainian campaign targeting the Russian Navy in and around Crimea.

FLEET

From the video of the bottom there were at least 4 Russian ships almost side by side and in order for them to shoot down any drones they would have to fire directly into the city. Russia really doesn't care about their citizens

P.U.T.U said:

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From the video of the bottom there were at least 4 Russian ships almost side by side and in order for them to shoot down any drones they would have to fire directly into the city. Russia really doesn't care about their citizens

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Yeah pretty crazy. Whats a typical ratio of tracer non tracer in ADA guns like that?

I would like to see the aftermath of where those rounds ended up.

Well that was quick. Just found this a min after posting above. ADA round in orcs engine block.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/0C3T35DHQP

Not sure what Russia's practice is but every 4-5 rounds is standard for tracers

Quote:

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Missile strike reported in Dovzhansk at occupied part of Luhansk region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-may-missile-strike-reported-in-dovzhansk-at-occupied-part#google_vignette

Would anyone be offended if I list the US Military Principles of War? It is a framework that guides the military for planning and execution of kinetic operations. Perhaps it can help connect the dots regarding the Ukraine War. It is my experience various paradigms of war have allowed me to visualize warfare with a bit more clarity.

For example, Maneuver is a principle. Ukraine can't conduct requisite maneuver to flank, attack in mass at a critical time and place, or bypass Russian forces in order to conduct decisive offensive operations to defeat large Russian forces, thereby changing the fortunes of the war.

Might be better if you post a link if it is long

From the Wiki on Russian principles:

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The Soviet principles of military science, from Soviet AirLand Battle Tactics ISBN 0-89141-160-7. Similar principles continue to be followed in CIS countries.

Preparedness The ability to fulfill missions under any conditions for starting or the conduct of war.

Initiative Utilizing surprise, decisiveness, and aggressiveness to continuously strive to achieve and retain the initiative. Initiative, in this sense describes efforts to fulfill the plan in spite of difficulties. This is in contrast to the western usage of the term which means attacking (or threatening to attack) to force enemy reaction, thus denying his ability to act.

Capability Full use of the various means and capabilities of battle to achieve victory.
Cooperation Coordinated application of and close cooperation between major units of the armed forces.

Concentration Decisive concentration of the essential force at the needed moment and in the most important direction to achieve the main mission.

Depth Destruction of the enemy throughout the entire depth of their deployment.
Morale Use of political and psychological factors to demoralize opponents and break their will to resist.

Obedience Strict and uninterrupted obedience. Orders are to be followed exactly and without question. Commanders are expected to directly supervise subordinates in a detailed manner in order to ensure compliance.

Steadfastness Subordinate commanders are to carry out the spirit and the letter of the plan.
Security Security complements surprise. All aspects of security, from deception and secrecy, to severe discipline of subordinates who through action or inaction allow information to fall into the hands of ourselves are to be vigorously carried out.

Logistics Restoration of reserves and restoration of combat capability is of paramount concern of the modern, fast paced battlefield.

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Economist report panned by RT: Zelensky yelling at generals.

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Denis Yaroslavsky, a local commander who made national headlines for complaining that fortifications that were supposed to prevent Russian advances did not really exist, told The Economist that Zelensky "is being kept in a warm bath" that is, being told comforting lies by his aides.

The Economist's anonymous government source said the president has been clashing with Ukrainian generals after allegedly sensing that he was not getting the whole truth about the frontline situation.

Zelensky's strained relations with the military leadership, which reportedly stems from him putting his political goals ahead of military objectives, has previously been covered by Ukrainian and international media.

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All of this movement on the existing front line has been facilitated by the Russian attack northeast of Kharkov. Apparently lacking operational reserves, the Ukrainians stripped approximately three divisions (!) of troops off the Donbass front to staunch the bleeding up north.… pic.twitter.com/HF5xTl8IgF

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) May 20, 2024

For those interested in reading the originating source and not RT's spin ... The Economist: Ukraine's Desperate Struggle to Defend Kharkiv

For those intested in "Armchair Warlord" since his tweets are often posted on this thread ... Tyler 'Armchair Warlord' Weaver

Ya, I don't know why the original source is never posted on its own. You always have to dig through a ton of garbled Russian slant to get to any originating article and 99% of the time it says something completely different than the RT headline. Would make the board much easier to read.

In other news, the Russians are still forced to use 70 year old equipment because western sanctions are killing them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/20/when-a-70-year-old-russian-btr-50-attacks-ukrainian-troops-its-bad-news-for-the-whole-russian-war-effort/?sh=2002499e243e

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And while it's safer for Russian troops to ride in a 70-year-old BTR-50 with its 10-millimeter-thick armor than to ride in, say, a brand-new Chinese golf cart, it's still an ominous sign for Russia that more BTR-50s are appearing on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine as Russia's wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its 28th month.

"Without mechanized units fully equipped with proper combat vehicles like tanks, achieving swift and decisive penetration of defenses will be very challenging," Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight explained. "This limitation is likely to result in slower and more limited advances, hampering the overall progress of Russian forces."

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Thank you. I knew he was an American military veteran, didn't know he is a lawyer, but whatever.

🇷🇺🇺🇦Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy/refinery infrastructure has negligible/temporary impact, according to the Pentagon.

Western media focus on the 14% disruption & ignore both how temporary it was & the fact energy revenues have actually *increased* for Russia... pic.twitter.com/M3WP8DQHou

— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) May 19, 2024

The Economist piece is not real accurate, guessing at an encirclement of Kharkiv by a Russian force of only 12-15K, imho.



Borshchova is about 10 miles from the border. Pechenihy is west of the reservoir/lake and the distance from the border is about 30 miles. Speculation that this is the Russian plan is…entirely without merit, imho. If the Ukrainians are in fact moving multiple brigades+ believing this to be the movement they are to defend against…well, they have been fed horrible information/intelligence.