It's also ridiculous in that you can't mount an offensive with cheap artillery alone. It simply doesn't work that way.

JFABNRGR said:

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FJB24 said:

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Not sure this demographic ratio shift is true, but devastating if so.

⚡️‼️🗣️Khodorkovsky predicts Kharkov to fall this year, Odessa in 2025, and all of Ukraine in 2026:

🏹 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian Opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky

🔶️ Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war – 5.4% of Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP – with the most commonly used Russian… pic.twitter.com/Mq5WAXMSqt

— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) May 17, 2024

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Well I can't predict the final outcome on this terror operation started by russia but this guy didn't include the $500 drones that the Ukrainians have about perfected (on their own) and its about impossible to put a value on the power of will and the skill the Ukes have often displayed.

He also doesn't take into account the potential response by Poland, Romania, and the rest of Europe should orcs get to the western border.

That said he can go FO.

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Carl Von Clausewitz opined there are three important components of war:

- Passion of the people.
- Military acumen.
- Rational government.

However, as many of us mentioned, the Ukrainian military can't realize its full potential without a different suite of offensive weapons.

nortex97 said:

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Nice summary, mostly right imho:

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The implication being that a US/European isolationist response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine would have made the world a safer place vis-a-vis Russia and China?

What is the latest on Kharkiv? I wonder how much munitions and ammunition Ukraine has at this point to continue the fight.

Seems much more stabilized. Check map updates on https://liveuamap.com/ and https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.396/34.973 for more updates.

Waffledynamics said:

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Seems much more stabilized. Check map updates on https://liveuamap.com/ and https://deepstatemap.live/en#7/49.396/34.973 for more updates.

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Thank you sir. I have too many fires to focus much on the war.

Tanker123 said:

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Thank you sir. I have too many fires to focus much on the war.

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Yet, here we are...

Ukraine hit a hospital in Vovchansk where Russians were gathering.

Ще один ракурс авіаудару по лікарні у Вовчанську(Харківщина),де ворог накопичував особовий склад pic.twitter.com/Ow88L9w7hm

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) May 18, 2024

I found where it is. The hospital is Tsentr Pervynnoyi Medyko-Sanitarnoyi Dopomohy Vovchanskoho Rayonu. You can search it on Google Maps.

I can't visualize Ukraine winning the war without different types of offensive weapons - mostly aviation weapons systems.

Ukraine can't fight through Russian defensive lines nor go around them. Therefore, they must go over the Russians to take the fight to them in a manner that is on Ukraine's terms in regard to place and time in order to bring significant volumes of fire in close proximity of the Russians.

Typical Russians looting in Vovchansk.

When the long wait for the F16s is finally over I hope they have an ample supply of JDAMS. Those things are devastating.

I wish we gave them F-16s, A-10s, and Apaches.

newly formed russian 589th Moto Rifle Regiment (в/ч 01007), 27th Division, CMD
appears to have been committed. Presumably Ocheretyne direction. https://t.co/YOOnA1JvUP pic.twitter.com/vqV2Or21Ub

— imi (m) (@moklasen) May 18, 2024

This is in the Donetsk direction, where Russia continues to push.

Tanker123 said:

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I can't visualize Ukraine winning the war without different types of offensive weapons - mostly aviation weapons systems.

Ukraine can't fight through Russian defensive lines nor go around them. Therefore, they must go over the Russians to take the fight to them in a manner that is on Ukraine's terms in regard to place and time in order to bring significant volumes of fire in close proximity of the Russians.

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Well supposedly there is 50-100 drones hitting Crimea again right now.

They have also successfully hit targets over 1000km but I know what your saying.

In regards to your recommendations for further aircraft. I would in addition give them several hundred TLAMs. Let them hit every orc weapons plant, O&G refinery, every cruise missile launching platform, a couple of major logistics hubs, and if any left just for fun the kremlin along with any rathole putin likes to hide in.

JFABNRGR said:

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Tanker123 said:

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I can't visualize Ukraine winning the war without different types of offensive weapons - mostly aviation weapons systems.

Ukraine can't fight through Russian defensive lines nor go around them. Therefore, they must go over the Russians to take the fight to them in a manner that is on Ukraine's terms in regard to place and time in order to bring significant volumes of fire in close proximity of the Russians.

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Well supposedly there is 50-100 drones hitting Crimea again right now.

They have also successfully hit targets over 1000km but I know what your saying.

In regards to your recommendations for further aircraft. I would in addition give them several hundred TLAMs. Let them hit every orc weapons plant, O&G refinery, every cruise missile launching platform, a couple of major logistics hubs, and if any left just for fun the kremlin along with any rathole putin likes to hide in.

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Concur. Hit strategic targets.

Sitrep.



Another weekly summary (long). Dominic Cummings' public comments are pretty shocking.

⚡️Zelensky calls for three-point action plan at upcoming peace summit.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he anticipates the upcoming peace summit in Switzerland will yield an action plan addressing three key areas: free navigation to protect port infrastructure, global food…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 19, 2024

Ramstein group meeting May 20th (presumably will go several days).

If UKR can't take out the RUS aircraft launching the glide bombs, then they are screwed

"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"

Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.

The commentary of witnesses is curious. https://t.co/e4npyRCHt9 pic.twitter.com/3FLgbzHlnE

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2024

More footage of a beautiful morning!
💥🔥📍 #Novorossiysk pic.twitter.com/SWzizfgphs

— 𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐚 𝐊𝐎𝐌𝐒𝐀 | 🇪🇺🇫🇷🇵🇱🇺🇦 (@tweetforAnna) May 17, 2024

So far it looks like 2 refineries hit and a black sea minesweeper destroyed. Also SU25 shor down but the Ukes also lost a SU27 a couple days ago defending Karkiv.

This could be a big deal.

🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺 The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.

The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed. https://t.co/pO5h2Rg2MB pic.twitter.com/tdjATw7ZRu

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 19, 2024

But doesn't most of the gas it stores/sells through to Europe come from…Russia?

So Russia blew up their own gas supply to Europe while Ukraine decimates their domestic refining?

Putin, ever the master strategist.

74OA said:

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"American aid to Ukraine is flowing again." "Ammunition has reached Ukrainian brigades and now those brigades are blasting Russian assault groups." "The new mobilization law is in effect, fresh Ukrainian troops are undergoing training and new brigades are forming. Ukraine's fortunes are improving."

FINALLY

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Wonderful!

Understanding the plans to support Ukraine using Russia's frozen financial assets.

Two options. One provides Ukraine with ~$3.5B annually in interest earned from those Russian assets. The other gives Ukraine an immediate $50B loan from the G7 with the loan being repaid with the $3.5B in annual interest.

JUST DO IT

Teslag said:

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So Russia blew up their own gas supply to Europe while Ukraine decimates their domestic refining?

Putin, ever the master strategist.

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Perhaps Seymour Hersh will tell us that we actually blew it up

FJB24 said:

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This could be a big deal.

🇪🇺🇺🇦🇷🇺 The second largest gas compressor and storage station in Europe, the Bilche-Volitsa station, ceased to exist.

The main control room (management), SERB (operation and equipment), administrative building, and security buildings were destroyed. https://t.co/pO5h2Rg2MB pic.twitter.com/tdjATw7ZRu

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) May 19, 2024

But doesn't most of the gas it stores/sells through to Europe come from…Russia?

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EU countries planned to use the vast unused underground caverns at this site to store imported natural gas reserves for winter. This strike means Europe can't access any gas already in storage there and must now also find alternative and equally vast storage sites to stock before winter. If Putin wanted to maximize the impact of this to pressure Europe, he should have waited until the onset of winter to strike. Now the EU has six months to find a workaround.

STORAGE

I agree, doing this now gives the EU 6 -7 months to find an answer to the gas problem

But what a mess Europe has going on

In regard to drones, when have such a collection of nerds taken center stage and a prominent role in warfare? lol

fullback44 said:

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I agree, doing this now gives the EU 6 -7 months to find an answer to the gas problem

But what a mess Europe has going on

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Maybe putin didn't think this strike would be an option 6 months from now