***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,108,034 Views | 46374 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by AtticusMatlock
MouthBQ98
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Yes, they cannot mass then because it draws drone and artillery fire, so they have learned to use them in 1's and 2's for fire support and suppression. They apparently really like the Bradley because it can zip in, unload some infantry for a small attack, and hammer the enemy positions, and it has turned out to be really good at keeping the personnel inside alive and mostly unharmed if it is hit, and they know it can defeat opposing armor in a pinch as long as it can see the target first.
Tanker123
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MouthBQ98 said:

Yes, they cannot mass then because it draws drone and artillery fire, so they have learned to use them in 1's and 2's for fire support and suppression. They apparently really like the Bradley because it can zip in, unload some infantry for a small attack, and hammer the enemy positions, and it has turned out to be really good at keeping the personnel inside alive and mostly unharmed if it is hit, and they know it can defeat opposing armor in a pinch as long as it can see the target first.
Yep - M2 firepower, protection, maneuver. This is the perfect war for them.
Waffledynamics
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ETA: Guess it's considered NSFW.

Quote:

Ukrainian Skylords UAV group hits a "Tigr" Infantry mobility vehicle near Gorkovskii, Belgorod Oblast, Russia.
Location: 50.443735, 35.826906
AtticusMatlock
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Ukraine is targeting the airbase again tonight. Waiting on some good information.
Tanker123
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Would Ukraine go Total War on Russia if it has the capability? Perhaps the fear of Total War is the reason Ukraine has limited offensive weapons systems.
agent-maroon
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Tanker123 said:

Would Ukraine go Total War on Russia if it has the capability? Perhaps the fear of Total War is the reason Ukraine has limited offensive weapons systems.

Why wouldn't they? This is an existential war for them.
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Tanker123
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agent-maroon said:

Tanker123 said:

Would Ukraine go Total War on Russia if it has the capability? Perhaps the fear of Total War is the reason Ukraine has limited offensive weapons systems.

Why wouldn't they? This is an existential war for them.
There are possibly second and third order effects to consider due to international politics.
nortex97
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Some good news for those pulling for Ukraine/Kiev Government forces:



Tanker123
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nortex97 said:

Some good news for those pulling for Ukraine/Kiev Government forces:




Are the Ukrainians dug in and the Russians have to maneuver in open terrain? That is how I visualize the battle. Of course, I could be wrong, but doubt it.
fullback44
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Sad situation for these people, war sucks and these people are the ones suffering. I don't like all of this one bit, I wish they could just end this dumb and senseless war, obviously their are 2 sides of every story, I don't fully understand the reasons this war is being fought, their certainly is a lot of politics on both sides as to why this war is taking place.

This video shows who the people are that are dealing with the war and how it's affecting their lives.

Eliminatus
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fullback44 said:

Sad situation for these people, war sucks and these people are the ones suffering. I don't like all of this one bit, I wish they could just end this dumb and senseless war, obviously their are 2 sides of every story, I don't fully understand the reasons this war is being fought, their certainly is a lot of politics on both sides as to why this war is taking place.

This video shows who the people are that are dealing with the war and how it's affecting their lives.
It's awful. Whenever the Russian army marches, brutality and subjugation and outright war crimes ALWAYS marches in step. Proven time and time again over the last century+. Something in the Asian water I swear...

The political reasons and maneuverings from all sides is a mess but it has always been thus in human history. Yet, us Americans in our cozy homes constantly forget the very blunt truth that a country was literally invaded and now they are struggling with that invader. All of our fears of the rampaging German Hun, Red Scare, etc. of our own propaganda over the years IS happening right now for the Ukes. Our news is tied up in the money of all this but this is a powerful reminder that underneath all that political squabbling, a very real and devastating war is ongoing. One area I will never bend on is that Ukraine is in the morale right for resisting this invader and defending their home and hearth and way of life. Even my own thought as I was the one literally kicking in doors in a foreign country, was that I get it. I resent the ME for a lot of things but I always begrudgingly accepted the common family man fighting against the unwanteds. Even when I was one of those unwanteds myself. Ukraine as a whole will never be the same again and the scars from this on the individual and the Ukrainian people as a collective will be everlasting, sadly. As evidenced by this video.

As a side tangent, for those here who are able and willing, I urge you to get involved directly in disaster relief. There is not much more humbling than observing and working in a civilian area devastated by war/disaster. They can always use more hands and it keeps us grounded in reality and what is truly important at the end of the day. Americans need that from time to time. Myself included.
nortex97
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Updates:
Quote:

The offensive has been going on for long enough that I think we can draw a few conclusions. First of all is that the Russians are not using a lot of troops and are in no hurry to introduce more - this entire push is probably the work of a single Russian division task group attacking on a 60-kilometer front. I've included a very speculative Russian disposition with the latest tactical map based on a "two-up one-back" attack with two brigades forward and one in reserve.

This relatively small Russian force has been able to make substantial progress despite what is now a considerable Ukrainian force rushed in to reinforce the area, fascinatingly, by turning NATO's next-generation warfighting doctrine around against the Ukrainians. I wrote about this at some length earlier (link downthread). Essentially the Russians are using massed surveillance and standoff fires to shred the Ukrainian force attempting to close with them into manageable chunks for their sparse ground forces to tackle. This can be easily seen in the attached map with geolocated pins of Lancet strikes on Ukrainian artillery pieces in the region from May 11-15th - and I remind the reader that these 40-odd strikes represent hits with one "video-rich" weapon system released by an army that's maddeningly tight-fisted with combat footage.




Interesting Russian delegation to Beijing:

74OA
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Updates:

"The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces have partially stabilized the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast bordering Russia.[1] Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Russian forces are attempting to make tactical gains near Lukyantsi and Vovchansk to create footholds for future advances, but that Ukrainian counterattacks and artillery and drone strikes are preventing Russian forces from gaining a foothold in these areas.[2] Kharkiv Oblast Administration officials stated on May 15 that constant Russian shelling makes it impossible for Ukrainian forces to establish fortifications within three to five kilometers of the international border in Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces constructed the first and second lines of defense about 12 to 13 kilometers and 20 kilometers from the international border, respectively.[3] ISW currently assesses that Russian forces have advanced no more than eight kilometers from the international border in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces operating in Russia could easily conduct artillery strikes against Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border, and Western prohibitions on the use of Western-provided weapons systems for strikes against rear Russian areas across the border make potential fixed Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border vulnerable and possibly indefensible. Russian forces have been able to make tactical advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast since May 10 in areas where Ukrainian forces purposefully did not establish significant defensive lines and currently appear to be prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" over a deep penetration into Kharkiv Oblast."

ISW

For some perspective: MAP
Teslag
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Quote:

One area I will never bend on is that Ukraine is in the morale right for resisting this invader and defending their home and hearth and way of life
AgLA06
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JFABNRGR
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"Ukrainians have become more effective"

Probably means the forces in that area have not seen heavy combat in some time. Drone operators who have been chomping at the bit getting better while coordinations between ISR & weapon system operators also getting more efficient.

IMO orcs success in last few months has only come from improved ISR to include longer ranges and the use of glide bombs. Everything on the ground still dies and gets blown up.

I wish the media would stop saying "new front" its not a new front its new assaults on a different portion of the front.
Teslag
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A lot of it is just Occam's razor. The Russians easily advanced across a lightly defended gray zone and are now encountering fortifications and defensive lines. The Ukrainians were never going to place defenses right up agains the front.
Waffledynamics
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txags92
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Waffledynamics said:


Tracked Garden Shed? Bahhahaha!
74OA
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At the strategic level, China's support for Russia is absolutely essential to keep Putin's war going, so Vlad is in Beijing paying homage to Xi.

Not mentioned amongst their platitudes about finding a solution to the war is that it could end tomorrow if the invading Russian forces simply left Ukrainian territory.

CHINA
Build It
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So is India but you don't see us stomping on that relationship. India is as guilty as China. Pick on them for a while.
Gilligan
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Build It said:

So is India but you don't see us stomping on that relationship. India is as guilty as China. Pick on them for a while.
The world needs to stop working with India and stop buying goods from China. Russia is good for nothing but fertilizer. Go figure...
Teslag
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https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/05/16/war-in-ukraine-washington-no-longer-rules-out-its-weapons-being-used-to-strike-russian-soil_6671634_4.html


Looks like we will now formally allow our weapons to strike Russian soil. Make it rain.

Quote:

Ukraine had been waiting for this green light for months. In a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, May 15, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that Ukrainian forces could strike Russian territory with weapons supplied by the US, for the first time since the Russian invasion in 2022. "We have not encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war," said Blinken, opening up the possibility of Western military materiel being used against Russian units located beyond Ukraine's borders.
txags92
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Gilligan said:

Build It said:

So is India but you don't see us stomping on that relationship. India is as guilty as China. Pick on them for a while.
The world needs to stop working with India and stop buying goods from China. Russia is good for nothing but fertilizer. Go figure...
I would like to see consequences for India for taking Russia's side in the economic warfare going on. The BRICs countries should at the least lose MFN trade status with the US.
Tanker123
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Teslag said:

A lot of it is just Occam's razor. The Russians easily advanced across a lightly defended gray zone and are now encountering fortifications and defensive lines. The Ukrainians were never going to place defenses right up agains the front.
This is what I envisioned.
TheVarian
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While I love that, only strengthens others and Russia to be more "intrusive elsewhere"
Tanker123
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I have a strong suspicion if they want Kharkiv and Ukraine has the munitions, then it will become a larger version of Bakhmut. Will Russia be willing to send tens of thousands of soldiers into a meat grinder and lose thousands of casualties?
Teslag
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Bakhmut was a city of 70,000. Kharkiv has 1.5 million. I don't think even Russia can level that type of city with artillery. Not mention that amount of civilian displacement. You do something like that it will be an untenable situation during an occupation.
74OA
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"Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday announced a $2 billion aid package for Ukraine largely intended to help the embattled country grow its indigenous defense capabilities and move away from Soviet-era equipment." AID

Good, because Ukraine has excess defense industrial capacity sitting idle. It just needs investors to help finance expanded production. SUMMIT
Tanker123
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Teslag said:

Bakhmut was a city of 70,000. Kharkiv has 1.5 million. I don't think even Russia can level that type of city with artillery. Not mention that amount of civilian displacement. You do something like that it will be an untenable situation during an occupation.
Concur. I read the size of the city is over 100 square miles. The Germans had around 1 million soldiers at Stalingrad and still could not completely surround it. Another lesson learned from that battle is the Germans bombed the hell out of that city, but it created structures that became good fighting positions for the Russians. Who is ordering the attack on Kharkiv, the generals or Putin?
AgLA06
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Tanker123 said:

Teslag said:

Bakhmut was a city of 70,000. Kharkiv has 1.5 million. I don't think even Russia can level that type of city with artillery. Not mention that amount of civilian displacement. You do something like that it will be an untenable situation during an occupation.
Concur. I read the size of the city is over 100 square miles. The Germans had around 1 million soldiers at Stalingrad and still could not completely surround it. Another lesson learned from that battle is the Germans bombed the hell out of that city, but it created structures that became good fighting positions for the Russians. Who is ordering the attack on Kharkiv, the generals or Putin?
Last I checked the Russian's most forward positions are still 12 miles from the outskirts of Kharkiv. And they are just now barely starting to come up against the Ukrainian defensive positions. It this pace it will take them months to get there.
Tanker123
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AgLA06 said:

Tanker123 said:

Teslag said:

Bakhmut was a city of 70,000. Kharkiv has 1.5 million. I don't think even Russia can level that type of city with artillery. Not mention that amount of civilian displacement. You do something like that it will be an untenable situation during an occupation.
Concur. I read the size of the city is over 100 square miles. The Germans had around 1 million soldiers at Stalingrad and still could not completely surround it. Another lesson learned from that battle is the Germans bombed the hell out of that city, but it created structures that became good fighting positions for the Russians. Who is ordering the attack on Kharkiv, the generals or Putin?
Last I checked the Russian's most forward positions are still 12 miles from the outskirts of Kharkiv. And they are just now barely starting to come up against the Ukrainian defensive positions. It this pace it will take them months to get there.


Yeah, I thought the attack would slow down because the Russians are miserable at attacking by fire and maneuver. They are relegated to attack by fire which is very WWI like.

Ukraine will have two overriding objectives - defend Kharkiv and kill as many Russians possible. I am making the strong assumption the Russians have not improved much tactically. It will be the case the Ukrainian weapons far out ranging the Russian's ability to maneuver safely. That military problem was significant in the Civil War and WWI.

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The political discussion thread regarding this conflict has now been relaunched. Please do not derail this thread with discussion and debate regarding the American/Geopolitical debates/news surrounding this conflict. Your posts will be deleted from here and you will potentially face time off. We beleive the notes on the OP about what this thread is about are pretty clear. We have also reposted our expectations of engagement with each other in regard to these subjects. Please read the warnings and instructions carefully. Please help us on both of these threads by posting information and comments in good faith.

Thanks and Gig 'Em!

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Russia/Ukraine From Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)
JFABNRGR
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in support of my earlier post. First vid is effectiveness of orcs on the ground assaulting (note this was without drone drops).

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1cthh6k/russians_attempt_to_assault_a_ukrainian_position/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

This is what happens when you take over an entrenched position and your mortars are all pre-dialed in and or it was pre-rigged with heavy explosives. Again orc adherence to consolation of troops is bewildering.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ctgbm8/russians_temporarily_entered_ukrainian_positions/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

On another likely sad note the 78 year old Vietnam Vet UV (whom I think was Activity) has not been heard from in over a month. Given his sole mission doing LRRPs, any news may be a long time coming. In any case Godspeed warrior.
AgLA06
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Moderator said:

The political discussion thread regarding this conflict has now been relaunched. Please do not derail this thread with discussion and debate regarding the American/Geopolitical debates/news surrounding this conflict. Your posts will be deleted from here and you will potentially face time off. We beleive the notes on the OP about what this thread is about are pretty clear. We have also reposted our expectations of engagement with each other in regard to these subjects. Please read the warnings and instructions carefully. Please help us on both of these threads by posting information and comments in good faith.

Thanks and Gig 'Em!

-Staff

Russia/Ukraine From Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)
Based on the desired topic, maybe the thread should be on the Miliary board instead of here. That would probably greatly help remove the temptation of F16 posters.

[We do understand the argument here, but an ongoing military conflict is a world news subject. The politics board was created to discuss and debate politics and world news of the day. The military board is primarily for conversations among our Military/Vet/Corps of Cadet Alumni users and users just interested in those subject that do not have the intent of debating information as much as discussing information or sharing experiences related to military service/history/weapons/technology or news most relevant to the military/vet community. Users contributing to both of these threads should have a very clear understanding of what the two threads are about and post accordingly. -Staff]
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