2023NCAggies said:

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lb3 said:

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74OA said:

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Zelensky lowers conscription age and other notes from the front.

UPDATES

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Reduced conscription age from 27 to 25. They can't be hurting that much if they aren't even in the teens yet.

I have an uncle who served in WWII at age 14.

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Pretty stupid, in my opinion. How have they not lowered it to 18? That could add 1,000,000 troops possibly

I do not think the younger Ukraine people care to fight

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They likely have limited training resources, limited ability to effectively lead more troops, and limited ability to effectively equip more troops. For the Russians, sending two troops to the front with one rifle between them that they have shot maybe 10-20 rounds each as part of their training so that they can be led by a soldier who got there two days ahead of them is standard practice. Ukraine was in the process of being trained into western standards and likely have a shortage of trained and experienced sergeant level troops to lead new troops. They are sparing the younger population because they are the future. Guys who are in their late 20s and 30s have likely already had a couple of kids and probably already had some military service in their past. The demographics are against both countries, but while Russia is throwing their headlong into the fire, Ukraine is at least trying to plan for a future where they will need a population to live on beyond the war.

txags92 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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lb3 said:

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74OA said:

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Zelensky lowers conscription age and other notes from the front.

UPDATES

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Reduced conscription age from 27 to 25. They can't be hurting that much if they aren't even in the teens yet.

I have an uncle who served in WWII at age 14.

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Pretty stupid, in my opinion. How have they not lowered it to 18? That could add 1,000,000 troops possibly

I do not think the younger Ukraine people care to fight

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They likely have limited training resources, limited ability to effectively lead more troops, and limited ability to effectively equip more troops. For the Russians, sending two troops to the front with one rifle between them that they have shot maybe 10-20 rounds each as part of their training so that they can be led by a soldier who got there two days ahead of them is standard practice. Ukraine was in the process of being trained into western standards and likely have a shortage of trained and experienced sergeant level troops to lead new troops. They are sparing the younger population because they are the future. Guys who are in their late 20s and 30s have likely already had a couple of kids and probably already had some military service in their past. The demographics are against both countries, but while Russia is throwing their headlong into the fire, Ukraine is at least trying to plan for a future where they will need a population to live on beyond the war.

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If they lose, which they will if aid doesn't come than it doesn't matter, those young people will be Russians or will have to flee

If Russia is to take Ukraine they gain about 20 million workers. That was pulled from my ass. But there are 38 million people in that country. I am assuming a lot leave but they all won't get out

Naveronski said:

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Which could be interesting long term... what will be the effect of sending a generation of men to their deaths?

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Well, Russia has been there and done that...

Russia has turned on itself a few times and fragmented once not so long ago. It will turn on itself again. Hopefully we won't bail them out this time but we will.

2023NCAggies said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They are killing and maiming a generation or two of laborers/workers and fathers. This will damage them deeply and permanently. Eastern Russian regions will eventually fracture and separate, and Russia proper won't be able to stop it.

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After WW2 our men came home and had a lot of sex and as a result, a lot of kids.

Might happen for Russia after this war

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It might, but it might not.

Interestingly, I recall on some random episode of a podcast that I saw months ago that one of the guests was a woman either from Russia or Belarus. She mentioned dating dynamics actually favored men due to the loss of so many of them in WWII, leading to more women than men. A quick image search pulls up this from Wikipedia, dated 2021.

2023NCAggies said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They are killing and maiming a generation or two of laborers/workers and fathers. This will damage them deeply and permanently. Eastern Russian regions will eventually fracture and separate, and Russia proper won't be able to stop it.

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After WW2 our men came home and had a lot of sex and as a result, a lot of kids.

Might happen for Russia after this war

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We also didn't use our soldiers as bullet magnets to make the enemy expend all their materiel as our SOP. So we brought home most most of the people that fought in WWII.

The Russians may not bring home the majority...

Meet the deadliest one-way attack drone of #Ukraine, the same which was unsuccessfully used to destroy a factory manufacturing Shahed-136 (Geran-2) attasck drones in Alabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, #Russia. These strange looking drones can carry maximum 300kg of explosives. pic.twitter.com/XU1pCipmsj

— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) April 4, 2024

As of April 4, the plant is connected to Ukraine's energy system only by one power line, which was recently restored. This situation "threatens to cause an emergency," Energoatom said.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 4, 2024

P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

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Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

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Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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what happens to the Russian Army once the last prison is closed?

LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

---

Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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what happens to the Russian Army once the last prison is closed?

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It's in the same shape it was before they turned to Wagner and the prisons.

At this point outside of a fairly small number of "elite" units they had to rebuild, it's mostly an occupation force sitting on borders and a lot of mechanics doing their best to bring mothballed and stripped equipment back to running.

I have a hard time believing the "almost fully reconstituted" Russian military is well trained at all. On the other hand I think Ukraine needs to lower the conscription age to lower than 25 and they should receive training in NATO neighbors not to use up Ukraine's military resources any more than needed.

Older now, but this explains their compulsory service (reserves), conscript, and professional components fairly well. Here is a longer (pro-Russian source but fairly detailed) analyses of their leadership structure etc. from September. Their use of prisoner units seems to have decreased, post-Wagner debacle (not sure in the "Africa Corps").

"Yesterday (on April 3), the enemy targeted a solar power plant. This is the first case, at least in my memory, of a targeted attack on a renewable energy facility," Kudrytskyi said, without disclosing the location of the solar power plant.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 4, 2024

LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

---

Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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what happens to the Russian Army once the last prison is closed?

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You really meant to ask where do all the prison guards and admin go?

A. Ukraine on duty transfer. Lol

Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

---

Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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I thought I remembered an article maybe 9 months ago saying that Wagner was the primary group recruiting from the prisons and that they had kind of reached the bottom of the barrel of who they could get to voluntarily sign a contract to serve. Not sure how practical it is to try to command a platoon of forced conscripts from a prison, but given the notorious shortage of low level leadership in Russian units, I can't imagine it is an easy task to make them combat effective. If their only role is to run forward absorbing bullets, I guess they can do plenty with it by pointing guns at their backs, but even that is not an endless supply. As Clancy said in RSR, turning good troops into jailers makes for a tough disciplinary situation.

txags92 said:

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Not sure how practical it is to try to command a platoon of forced conscripts from a prison, but given the notorious shortage of low level leadership in Russian units, I can't imagine it is an easy task to make them combat effective. If their only role is to run forward absorbing bullets, I guess they can do plenty with it by pointing guns at their backs, but even that is not an endless supply.

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This is exactly what they're doing. The "commander" is the only trained ish soldier in the group and the others are just there to soak up bullets and allow the real units to identify the actual defensive units and strengths. After they're slaughtered and weakened the defensive units, artillery is called in and real units press the attack from multiple directions in small groups.

It's disgusting and hard to fathom in 1st world countries, but effective in it's own way.

There's been multiple interviews lately where Ukraine western veterans are highlighting this strategy.

AgLA06 said:

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txags92 said:

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Not sure how practical it is to try to command a platoon of forced conscripts from a prison, but given the notorious shortage of low level leadership in Russian units, I can't imagine it is an easy task to make them combat effective. If their only role is to run forward absorbing bullets, I guess they can do plenty with it by pointing guns at their backs, but even that is not an endless supply.

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This is exactly what they're doing. The "commander" is the only trained ish soldier in the group and the others are just there to soak up bullets and allow the real units to identify the actual defensive units and strengths. After they're slaughtered and weakened the defensive units, artillery is called in and real units press the attack from multiple directions in small groups.

It's disgusting and hard to fathom in 1st world countries, but effective in it's own way.

There's been multiple interviews lately where Ukraine western veterans are highlighting this strategy.

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FWIW, I don't consider Russia a 1st world country anymore.

Russia facing manpower and modern armored vehicle shortages, both of which handicap its ability to stage a major offensive.

REALITY

Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

---

Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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I think they are mostly in the Wagner group which is in Belarus training right now? I think

They can probably get the prisoners from Belarus too and other countries could send theirs (that are on the Russian side)

Man power is definitely not a problem for them. I bet most of the personnel that has died are undesirables. Which is why Putin hasn't blinked about the numbers. I do not think they are as high as people are reporting either and Ukraines is a lot higher

No one wants prisoners

aggiehawg said:

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Uh oh.

Blinken says that Ukraine will be joining NATO. Under Article 5, this means that an attack on Ukraine will be considered an attack on the United States. If you want World War 3, vote Biden in November. pic.twitter.com/kv0fyv5zdf

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) April 4, 2024

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I am not sure that is accurate. I think the NATO bylaws say that Article 5 doesn't apply to countries that joined while already involved in an active war. We can say it applies I guess if we are just looking for an excuse to go to war with Russia directly, but I don't think that is what this move is about. I think this is just to crank up the screws on Vlad if they think he is wanting to negotiate by starting to take one of Russia's desired endpoints (Ukraine not in NATO) off the table before the talks formally begin.

Морозовськ, Ростов, аеродром )) pic.twitter.com/IfsvFG83Aj

— АЗОВ_UA_NATO_USA🔜🇺🇦🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧🇩🇪🇵🇱 (@herooftheday10) April 4, 2024

The russian Morozovsk air base is under attack tonight

The airbase is close to the Ukrainian border

The video shows a Pantsir AAD shooting reportedly pic.twitter.com/DTMxipFfiq

— PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) April 4, 2024

Reports of several explosions at the air base. Damage, if any, should be more apparent in the morning light.

Google earth shows lots of Su-34's there, many in revetments

GAC06 said:

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Google earth shows lots of Su-34's there, many in revetments

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That imagery is probably dated. Using Google imagery for "analysis" is useless for any resources that can move.

I'm seeing reports of three different Russian airfields (Yeysk, Engels, and Morozovsk) being hit tonight. That's quite impressive!

According to satellite imagery from today before the Ukrainian drone strike, 26 Su-34 and 3 Su-24/Su-30 were seen at the Morozovsk military airfield.https://t.co/8OQtgkkQdX

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 5, 2024

💥 Russia: Explosions at the Engels Air Force Base home to strategic bombers like the Tu-95 and Tu-22 after a Ukrainian drone attack. Over 800km from the likely launch point in Kharkiv. pic.twitter.com/xW7fd7hTIA

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 5, 2024

The destruction caused by Ukraine’s attack last night at Morozovsk Air Base in Russia has not officially been confirmed by Ukraine yet

Currently, Sources tell the 25th Air Assault Brigade and SBU Sources told the Kyiv Independent that 6 Russian Aircraft were destroyed last night

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) April 5, 2024

The updates will keep rolling in

Russian Source: 4 x Su-34's, 2 x Su-25's and 2 or 3 x Tu-95MS's were damaged or destroyed in the Ukrainian LRAUAV attack last night

Source: https://t.co/gCyhwKrSH9

Russian TG Channel Kremlin Secrets: «Bad news for our aviation. There are losses at two more airfields, strategic… pic.twitter.com/yloPrJHlhg

— OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) April 5, 2024

JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Eliminatus said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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So Russia added another 100k soldiers this year that willingly joined? Still seems they are getting rid of all of the undesirables, not sure how long they can keep doing this before it starts hurting their economy long term due to lack of work force.

---

Ran across this and a few others like it a few days ago that may be pertinent to that conversation. I was not able to corroborate it personally though with further news articles, so just noted it and moved on at the time.

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Russia "recruited" the prison system super hard once it became clear the Ukes were going to stand and fight. By their own admissions and video proof. We also know they lost huge numbers of them, especially the first wave that went into the meat grinder of Bakhmut. And I have seen nothing that says they have ever stopped. I even mentioned it months ago that that recruiting tactic was likely a win/win for Russia. They got their throwaway penal battalions and once dead, Russia no longer had to feed or house them anymore.

I don't know for sure, but precedent and and common sense does not make me disbelieve this at all if Russia is consolidating what is left over from it's prison system and closing the rest. Just food for thought though.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3

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what happens to the Russian Army once the last prison is closed?

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You really meant to ask where do all the prison guards and admin go?

A. Ukraine on duty transfer. Lol

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That's not what I was implying at all.

the text above was discussing how the Russian Army was primarily being staffed by PRISON INMATES

so my question is, what happens when there are no more PRISON INMATES to staff the Russian Army.

that is when things start to get interesting.

Ukraine fashions a cost-effective network of cell phone sensors and old-fashioned MGs to take down Russian drones.

INGENUITY