***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,677,926 Views | 47966 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by lb3
PlaneCrashGuy
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ABATTBQ11 said:

PlaneCrashGuy said:

Waffledynamics said:

Good lord. Looks like WWI. NSFW.




I counted 7 corpses in a 5 minute video. Did I miss something?


Probably others in the tanks and BTR's. You're also not seeing everything there, just this one guy's perspective. He mentions a group of spetznaz somewhere off camera that got ****ed up and that some bodies have already been collected, so there's more than what's being shown. This position was worked over pretty well.

He also mentions that 70% of a 4000 person bridge is gone. I would call that pretty substantial.


Agreed. 2800 is certainly much more than 7.
Waffledynamics
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Reported 12 hours ago.

Quote:

3rd Separate Assault brigade confirmed deployment to Avdiyivka, and heavy clashes in the town


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/15-february-3rd-separate-assault-brigade-confirmed-deployment#google_vignette

Possibly to cover the retreat or to reinforce the town. 3rd Brigade is largely comprised of Azov Battalion veterans.
74OA
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Russia protests to UN about Ukraine firing back at it and other notes.

UPDATES
AgLA06
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I was worried this could be another mariupole or Bahkmut where they try to hold at all costs amd lose capability because of it. To their credit it appears they are pulling back as needed to bleed Rusdia, but to ensure they aren't being encircled over a worthless town.
Waffledynamics
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AgLA06 said:

I was worried this could be another mariupole or Bahkmut where they try to hold at all costs amd lose capability because of it. To their credit it appears they are pulling back as needed to bleed Rusdia, but to ensure they aren't being encircled over a worthless town.
Indeed.



74OA
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Coalition of NATO nations agree to build a million UAV's for Ukraine in one year and other frontline updates.

Today's SITREP.
lb3
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With 6 weeks of 2024 already gone that's over 3100 drones per day for the remainder of the year.

That's some valuable industrial capabilities being created here.
74OA
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The World Bank now estimates that the cost of reconstructing Ukraine's war damage is now $486 billion, an increase of $75 billion.

DESTRUCTION

The roughly $350B of Russian state money frozen in Western banks would go a long way towards funding that bill. Certainly, Russia should be tapped first for the damage resulting from its aggression before anyone else is asked to help out.

JUST DO IT
74OA
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Putin murders yet another domestic opponent. Navalny was a dead man walking the minute he returned to Russia after surviving being poisoned on Putin's orders.

NAVALNY

He must have fallen out of the only window without bars in his gulag, because he certainly appeared to be healthy and hearty the day before his death.

VIDEO
txaggie02
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Can only imagine what he's endured while in the penal colonies. Balls the size of coconuts to return to Russia after his attempted assassination and put up a fight rather than backing down to Putin. He knew his destiny and severe consequences, but still powered on. That's extremely brave and admirable.
Eliminatus
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Here's an example of one of the data points of how we can slowly piece together a picture of tank numbers. Or make it slightly less fuzzy at least. From official Uke source so that is to be minded as well.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-defence-intelligence-of-ukraine-revealed-the-pace-of-modernization-and-production-of-russian-t-62-and-t-90-tanks/

It states that T-90 production is ~15 a month which is entirely within reason with around 320 built new from invasion to current date. It also discusses the modernization program of T-62s of which there are <450 units converted to deployment readiness in the same time frame. An unknown number of MT-12 100mm anti-tank guns are included in that figure to get to 450. Little weird but ok, still pretty interesting to me. The MT-12 is a towed gun that reminds me a lot of the famed Pak-43 gun of Nazi Germany. Older tech but still pretty capable if allowed to work within it's strengths.

The other models are not mentioned specifically such as T-72s and T-80s. Which are THE tanks when people talk about the Russian armored hordes. Less than 1000 T-62s were made (for domestic use at least) while over 10000 T-72s were produced for example. Granted most of those were considered combat ready already and now they are mostly the ones that are sprinkled all over Ukraine in pieces. Though modernization and rehauling efforts still are ongoing for these as well.

Soooo.....with all that and other reports and rumors scattered across NATO intel and Russian propaganda releases, I still ballpark approx. ~100 a month in new production and refitting of mothballed units? Sure. Sounds goodish to me!

From all of this, we can glean a few facts though.

  • Russia has to dig DEEP into it's reserves to flesh out it's current armies.
  • With regard to above, it still has those reserves that it can do that. For now, at least.
  • Ukraine is still very, very good at blowing up Russian armor with relatively limited resources
  • The heated discussion of future of MBT's still continues...
Waffledynamics
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JB!98
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74OA said:

The World Bank now estimates that the cost of reconstructing Ukraine's war damage is now $486 billion, an increase of $75 billion.

DESTRUCTION

The roughly $350B of Russian state money frozen in Western banks would go a long way towards funding that bill. Certainly, Russia should be tapped first for the damage resulting from its aggression before anyone else is asked to help out.

JUST DO IT
Just spitballing here. Lets take that $350 billion and give it to them to fight the war. No matter the outcome, do not come asking for more to rebuild, etc. Done and Done.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
GinMan
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JFABNRGR
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One SU34 AND two SU34s shot down overnight by Ukraine.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian troops have captured city administration of Avdiyivka after Ukrainian withdrawal


https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/17-february-russian-troops-have-captured-city-administration
richardag
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lb3 said:

MouthBQ98 said:

Counter: Supplies delivered by drone.
True but ammo, food, and drinking water are heavy and the constant stream of drones would precisely locate your storage cache. Even if you deliver the supplies directly to the soldiers, you still give up your individual position.

The battlefield in 2030 will hardly be recognizable to Gulf War era soldiers.
Anyone developing directed EMF to incapacitate drone swarms?
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Casualty wise (WIA&KIA) Bahkmut was likely higher.
Deaths only wise, Avdiivka was likely 2x worse for the Russians than Bahkmut.
The easiest way to explain why is Terrain, and the built up fortifications. Even in the areas at the flanks.
The opening day of RUs offensive in our sector over a dozen BMPs were destroyed before they even got within 800m of Ukrainian lines. The infantry on and in that initial assault were caught out in the open and mowed down rather quickly.

One defensive operation that we were on, 16 of Chosen and 8 Ukrainians(javelin teams+snipers) destroyed 4 BMPs, damaged one that made it under a bridge with 6 others that escaped unharmed after dropping troops 300m+ away from the line in the field, 2 BTRs destroyed, 2 tanks one of which was destroyed by one of the craziest tank maneuvers by a UA tank team i ever saw and 70+ infantry killed or wounded.
The Russians successfully pushed us out of the trench to another friendly trench (there was only 10 defenders in that 1 trench with reserve force and supporting fires/overwatch being provided from nearby trench 200m away) and took control of the trench. Which was then blown with demolitions, fpv and artillery once the surviving russians (around 12) grouped up into it.

Our losses that day were 4 UA KIA, 2 Chosen KIA (Gander & Stremski) and everyone minor or moderately wounded with frag.

The human cost of Russia's Avdiivka sector endeavor likely cost them 100k WIA&KIA easily. Day after day for 2 or 3 weeks they continously attempted to run armor at fortified lines. In our sector, after they ran out of BMPs&BTRs they used troop transport trucks(Kamaz type) to try and get infantry as close as possible. These vehicles more often then not were hit by fpv or drones waited for dismount and hit infantry with droppers.
We made it a point to try and hit every enemy soldier still alive. If they crawled into a bunker, thermobaric. If they were crawling in an open field, grenade drop.

Mid to end Nov though, something changed. No longer were the Russians attempting 50+ men assaults. They'd move in groups of 8-12 men. If 2 or 3 made it, they'd hide amongst the rubble. The next group would move 5-15 minutes behind the first and they'd do the same. Once the survivors regrouped and had 20 or so men spread in 2 or more positions, they'd then push forward while a new rear element pushed up from behind and they'd mass creeping fires and drones while doing so. Only stopping once the RU infantry were within 25-50m of our positions.

They adapted their tactics to run as a mass of smaller human waves with less armor and more foot infantry to knock out a few meters of the killing fields or Grey area at a time. They didn't try to dig in. They just hid wherever they could.

One position we consistently fought over ended up with dead soldiers stacked around it (obj kyiv). There was well over 100 Russians strewn about infront and inside of it. Our fallen(KIA) Ukrainians around 10 or so that were taken in the 3 weeks of holding it, we had organized to the rear area of the fighting line, in hopes of getting their remains out, some we were able to, others we werent. We did take dozens upon dozens of wounded trying to hold obj k and took a lot of wounded and killed trying to retrieve remains of fallen and wounded soldiers from positions(I'd say 20-35% of all our wounded in the sector was trying to get remains or wounded out). You'd spend more time trying to organize where to throw the dead or move the dead out of firing lines than attempting to rebuild the positions daily.
richardag
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Waffledynamics
Thanks for the link & information.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Some Ukrainian servicemen were captured as POWs during withdrawal from Avdiyivka, - commander
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/17-february-some-ukrainian-servicemen-were-captured-as-pows
Waffledynamics
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74OA
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Zelensky offers to host Trump on a frontline visit to Ukraine.

INVITATION
Waffledynamics
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Seeing reports in OSINT telegram that Russia has begun offensive actions in the South, near Robotyne.

https://t.me/swodki/350467
https://t.me/Sever_Z/3293
74OA
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Waffledynamics said:

Seeing reports in OSINT telegram that Russia has begun offensive actions in the South, near Robotyne.

https://t.me/swodki/350467
https://t.me/Sever_Z/3293
Interesting. To do that, Russia will have to come out from behind the miles of fortifications and minefields it has been hiding behind in the south.
2wealfth Man
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Waffledynamics said:

Seeing reports in OSINT telegram that Russia has begun offensive actions in the South, near Robotyne.

https://t.me/swodki/350467
https://t.me/Sever_Z/3293
they have got to have some weak points somewhere along the front; everyone does. Too bad Ukes can't exploit them. F-16's would sure be handy against an offensive the way the Orcs run them (meat creep style).
74OA
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2wealfth Man said:

Waffledynamics said:

Seeing reports in OSINT telegram that Russia has begun offensive actions in the South, near Robotyne.

https://t.me/swodki/350467
https://t.me/Sever_Z/3293
they have got to have some weak points somewhere along the front; everyone does. Too bad Ukes can't exploit them. F-16's would sure be handy against an offensive the way the Orcs run them (meat creep style).
SOON
GAC06
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One of the claimed three Russian jets downed
Waffledynamics
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Russians already complaining about the difficulty of the Zaporizhzhia direction.

benchmark
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GAC06 said:

One of the claimed three Russian jets downed
So 3 yesterday and another Su-34 today? Ouchie.

74OA
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NATO ally pledges all its artillery to Ukraine. Leading by example.

DENMARK

Russia loses another fighter, its attack in the south is repelled and other notes.

UPDATES
74OA
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Russia now using advanced new cruise missile against Ukraine.

KH-69
Waffledynamics
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docb
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Add another SU34 and SU35 to the list. That's a lot of air power lost in recent days.
Waffledynamics
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More info:

Eliminatus
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docb said:

Add another SU34 and SU35 to the list. That's a lot of air power lost in recent days.


Looks like both were over Sea of Azov. Reports are the Russians are trying to push the advantage from Adiivka which includes a lot of air bombardment which is the only reason I can see them risking these platforms right now to this extent. They were normally pretty damn protective of the 34s and 35s. They'd lose one and pull the rest back to "safe" air space. But now with up to six gone in like 48 hrs? Tough times for their Air Force. One of the pilots was reported to have been found floating face down.

I'm assuming Patriots are the cause of most or all of these. And I think they have the latest models in the PAC 3 generation. Either way, they are really clamping down on the Black Sea in a way I never really imagined they would.
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