There's a long way to go. Russia has the bodies to replace big losses. But, obviously, the replacements are probably only good for catching bullets and little else.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Note the middle comment. Moscow has more bodies to throw away than does Ukraine, but at the moment many are the marginally trained dregs of society as Putin strains to keep the cost of war away from ordinary Russians.Agthatbuilds said:
There's a long way to go. Russia has the bodies to replace big losses. But, obviously, the replacements are probably only good for catching bullets and little else.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 11 December 2023.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) December 11, 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/EwN3NGWZUw
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/VXDDelS1YC
That's exactly where the drone wars are headed.MouthBQ98 said:
How the drone wars escalate? Larger numbers of more autonomous drones. Using them where they may not be sufficiently discriminatory on targets might be regarded as a war crime but many won't care in the future.
In a war like this, where there are no civilians near the front, swarms of autonomous drones will likely be given commands to locate and engage all vehicles and personnel within a geofenced area and exit or cease fire at a particular time for the infantry to occupy the newly cleared zone.
The smaller drones will eventually be flying in windows of buildings, through underground tunnels and trenches….
I am sure they have the bodies, but where is their public opinion? Russia lost less than 10% of that in 10 years in Afghanistan and pulled out in failure. I can't imagine how they have not overthrown their government yet with 300K lost and nothing substantive to show for it except a world that hates them and won't trade with them.Agthatbuilds said:
There's a long way to go. Russia has the bodies to replace big losses. But, obviously, the replacements are probably only good for catching bullets and little else.
Scary to think about.lb3 said:That's exactly where the drone wars are headed.MouthBQ98 said:
How the drone wars escalate? Larger numbers of more autonomous drones. Using them where they may not be sufficiently discriminatory on targets might be regarded as a war crime but many won't care in the future.
In a war like this, where there are no civilians near the front, swarms of autonomous drones will likely be given commands to locate and engage all vehicles and personnel within a geofenced area and exit or cease fire at a particular time for the infantry to occupy the newly cleared zone.
The smaller drones will eventually be flying in windows of buildings, through underground tunnels and trenches….
That is a figure reported by an anonymous source to CNN. The Ukrainians wrongly, imho, have claimed the Russians would begin a full mobilization in 2024, though nothing at all to support that has been provided, or indicated from Moscow:Agthatbuilds said:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/zelensky-biden-visit-12-12-23#h_80a87d6b200a0b6b4ffbb29a1f0871cb
According to declassified US Intel, Russia has lost 87% of its prewar men who have fought in Ukraine.
That's seems rather unbelievable as an 87% reduction in your beginning forces feels like it'd lead to defeat.Quote:
Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment. 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost, according to the assessment. 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed, a 32 percent loss rate.
Russia has a big army but surely these losses are beyond what they can backfill. If Ukraine cannot breakthrough, I don't see how the ever could
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-grenade-explosion-zelenskiy-military-medical-commander-putin?page=with:block-655b7faa8f083385c042352b
As a subtle reminder, every military-age male in Russia has required service obligations and remains in a reserve capacity. They spend a wildly disproportionate amount of their tiny economic GDP on defense, but lack the materiel to actually support a full mobilization even if they wanted to do so.Quote:
Russia may begin full mobilisation after 2024 presidential election, says senior security official
Russia may begin full mobilisation after the 2024 Russian presidential election on 17 March, the secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov, has suggested.
Danilov said in a speech to the International Security Forum in Halifax, Canada:Several sources have told Reuters that Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030.Quote:
Russia has managed to adapt, and constantly injects funds into its defence sector. Russia proved to be more resilient to the west's sanctions, as expected.
Russia is increasingly putting its economy on a war footing. Total mobilisation may follow the 2024 presidential elections.
In September, Ukraine's military said Russia could launch a big mobilisation campaign soon to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers from inside Russia and occupied Ukraine.
the plunging cost of a barrel of oil will start to have an effect on the bottom line of the Russian war time economy.
which comes first? Ukraine militarily breaking or the Russian economy breaking?
which comes first? Ukraine militarily breaking or the Russian economy breaking?
The Russian population is smaller than it was as the a Soviet Union in the 1980's and they have many many more military resources dedicated to the Ukraine war than they ever did in Afghanistan. Between this and sanctions and the degradation of their labor force from their population aging, shrinking, and their education system shrinking and their educated fleeing, this has to be starting to have a serious production impact. We aren't seeing the full effects of it yet, but there's no real way they can sustain this level of commitment both economically and with manpower and resources when a lot of their labor force is fighting and not working, that's why I'm practical terms Russia can't significantly expand their force commitments and why they are getting down to old equipment and have been using prisoners and mercenaries.
US intelligence: "In the past 22 months, 315,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded, according to the assessment provided to lawmakers. Prior to the invasion, Russia had a ground force strength of about 360,000.
Russia has also sustained huge losses in equipment, with 2,200 tanks destroyed out of a force of 3,500 and one-third of its armored vehicles knocked out of action, the assessment said.
Russia in some cases has had to draw on Soviet-era hardware to replace the lost equipment, even bringing 50-year-old T-62 tanks onto the battlefield."
Huge return on a small monetary investment by the West and achieved without a single US/European casualty.
LOSSES
Russia has also sustained huge losses in equipment, with 2,200 tanks destroyed out of a force of 3,500 and one-third of its armored vehicles knocked out of action, the assessment said.
Russia in some cases has had to draw on Soviet-era hardware to replace the lost equipment, even bringing 50-year-old T-62 tanks onto the battlefield."
Huge return on a small monetary investment by the West and achieved without a single US/European casualty.
LOSSES
nortex97 said:That is a figure reported by an anonymous source to CNN. The Ukrainians wrongly, imho, have claimed the Russians would begin a full mobilization in 2024, though nothing at all to support that has been provided, or indicated from Moscow:Agthatbuilds said:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/zelensky-biden-visit-12-12-23#h_80a87d6b200a0b6b4ffbb29a1f0871cb
According to declassified US Intel, Russia has lost 87% of its prewar men who have fought in Ukraine.
That's seems rather unbelievable as an 87% reduction in your beginning forces feels like it'd lead to defeat.Quote:
Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment. 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost, according to the assessment. 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed, a 32 percent loss rate.
Russia has a big army but surely these losses are beyond what they can backfill. If Ukraine cannot breakthrough, I don't see how the ever could
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-grenade-explosion-zelenskiy-military-medical-commander-putin?page=with:block-655b7faa8f083385c042352bAs a subtle reminder, every military-age male in Russia has required service obligations and remains in a reserve capacity. They spend a wildly disproportionate amount of their tiny economic GDP on defense, but lack the materiel to actually support a full mobilization even if they wanted to do so.Quote:
Russia may begin full mobilisation after 2024 presidential election, says senior security official
Russia may begin full mobilisation after the 2024 Russian presidential election on 17 March, the secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov, has suggested.
Danilov said in a speech to the International Security Forum in Halifax, Canada:Several sources have told Reuters that Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030.Quote:
Russia has managed to adapt, and constantly injects funds into its defence sector. Russia proved to be more resilient to the west's sanctions, as expected.
Russia is increasingly putting its economy on a war footing. Total mobilisation may follow the 2024 presidential elections.
In September, Ukraine's military said Russia could launch a big mobilisation campaign soon to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers from inside Russia and occupied Ukraine.
That's what the us government says, allegedly.
US military military deaths in Vietnam War: 58,220
From 1962 to 1973 (11 years) 5,293 per year.
Russian soldiers 312,000 in Ukraine (21 months)
178,000 per year.
Just seems shocking if true.
Does Ukraine have more "combatants" than available Russian soldiers?
Edit: most of this is posted above
From 1962 to 1973 (11 years) 5,293 per year.
Russian soldiers 312,000 in Ukraine (21 months)
178,000 per year.
Just seems shocking if true.
Does Ukraine have more "combatants" than available Russian soldiers?
Edit: most of this is posted above
I think it was 312k causalities not deaths
That's right and many of the non-permanently disabled wounded have been returned to duty, but the overall number of wounded and killed is nonetheless eye-opening.Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
I think it was 312k causalities not deaths
I think most people don't know that casualties don't mean just deaths, it's those who cannot fight
nortex97 said:That is a figure reported by an anonymous source to CNN. The Ukrainians wrongly, imho, have claimed the Russians would begin a full mobilization in 2024, though nothing at all to support that has been provided, or indicated from Moscow:Agthatbuilds said:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/zelensky-biden-visit-12-12-23#h_80a87d6b200a0b6b4ffbb29a1f0871cb
According to declassified US Intel, Russia has lost 87% of its prewar men who have fought in Ukraine.
That's seems rather unbelievable as an 87% reduction in your beginning forces feels like it'd lead to defeat.Quote:
Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the assessment. 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost, according to the assessment. 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed, a 32 percent loss rate.
Russia has a big army but surely these losses are beyond what they can backfill. If Ukraine cannot breakthrough, I don't see how the ever could
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/20/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-grenade-explosion-zelenskiy-military-medical-commander-putin?page=with:block-655b7faa8f083385c042352bAs a subtle reminder, every military-age male in Russia has required service obligations and remains in a reserve capacity. They spend a wildly disproportionate amount of their tiny economic GDP on defense, but lack the materiel to actually support a full mobilization even if they wanted to do so.Quote:
Russia may begin full mobilisation after 2024 presidential election, says senior security official
Russia may begin full mobilisation after the 2024 Russian presidential election on 17 March, the secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov, has suggested.
Danilov said in a speech to the International Security Forum in Halifax, Canada:Several sources have told Reuters that Putin has decided to run in the March presidential election, a move that will keep him in power until least 2030.Quote:
Russia has managed to adapt, and constantly injects funds into its defence sector. Russia proved to be more resilient to the west's sanctions, as expected.
Russia is increasingly putting its economy on a war footing. Total mobilisation may follow the 2024 presidential elections.Quote:
In September, Ukraine's military said Russia could launch a big mobilisation campaign soon to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers from inside Russia and occupied Ukraine.
Recruit...hahaha.Quote:
In September, Ukraine's military said Russia could launch a big mobilisation campaign soon to try to recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers from inside Russia and occupied Ukraine.
So, that's what they're going to call it.
MouthBQ98 said:
The Russian population is smaller than it was as the a Soviet Union in the 1980's and they have many many more military resources dedicated to the Ukraine war than they ever did in Afghanistan. Between this and sanctions and the degradation of their labor force from their population aging, shrinking, and their education system shrinking and their educated fleeing, this has to be starting to have a serious production impact. We aren't seeing the full effects of it yet, but there's no real way they can sustain this level of commitment both economically and with manpower and resources when a lot of their labor force is fighting and not working, that's why I'm practical terms Russia can't significantly expand their force commitments and why they are getting down to old equipment and have been using prisoners and mercenaries.
Ten years ago I attended a presentation by Nick Eberhart who is the demographic for the American Enterprise Institute. The stats that he rolled out on Russia came as a shock to me. At that time, the average life expectancy in Russia for men was 59 and had lost nearly a decade since the end of the Soviet Union. College graduates were fleeing and never coming back. Deaths from vodka and drugs were staggering and diet and exercise were horrible. Birth rate was far below the replacement rate. It was clear to me then that the Russian nation was dying of the comorbid effects of pride and shame that make reform and renewal a practical impossibility.
I wonder how many were PMCs? The Russians (and us) never count them towards official military casualties. Which makes sense for the Russians as they are flatly denying the numbers period but not sure if Wagner and the others make up that 312K from us. I doubt it really matters in the macro view since they largely come from the same pool but still curious.Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
I think it was 312k causalities not deaths
A significant shift from earlier this year when Ukraine still had the FPV advantage https://t.co/PVfWMSGRvT
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) December 13, 2023
nortex97 said:A significant shift from earlier this year when Ukraine still had the FPV advantage https://t.co/PVfWMSGRvT
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) December 13, 2023
All the more reason to send them new drone & counter drone resources for battlefield testing.
21x30=630 days of war. 318,000 divided by 630 = 504
War is hell but I'm floored that 500+ Ruskies a day are either killed or injured. That has to leave a mark back home. Doesn't it?
War is hell but I'm floored that 500+ Ruskies a day are either killed or injured. That has to leave a mark back home. Doesn't it?
That's when you start outsourcing:Straight Talk said:
21x30=630 days of war. 318,000 divided by 630 = 504
War is hell but I'm floored that 500+ Ruskies a day are either killed or injured. That has to leave a mark back home. Doesn't it?
More and more Cubans are coming to Ukraine to fight against the Ukrainian Army.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 10, 2023
They are tempted by Russian money pic.twitter.com/1Z3C5h1agx
To put that in perspective Russia has had more or about the same casualties than Turkey or Saudi Arabia has soldiers.
"On Tuesday, Zelenskyy dismissed the possibility of ceding any territories to Russia to end the war as "insane." "We are talking about human beings," Zelenskyy said, through a translator. "They are being tortured, they are being raped, and they are being killed. And those voices which offer to give up our territories, they offer as well to give up our people. That's not a matter of territory, that's a matter of lives, of families, of children, of their histories."
WH
WH
Wait until these Cubans experience a Russian winter
Doubt they make it that long.SamHou said:
Wait until these Cubans experience a Russian winter
Straight Talk said:
21x30=630 days of war. 318,000 divided by 630 = 504
War is hell but I'm floored that 500+ Ruskies a day are either killed or injured. That has to leave a mark back home. Doesn't it?
It's wild to us. A very healthy chunk of their losses though are, to put it bluntly, the dregs of society. They are literally nothing to the Russian decision makers. At the height of the prison clearing project into fighters it could probably be argued that it was a net gain for Russia. Wear down Ukraine while relieving yourself of mouths to feed.
Russia has a HUGE underclass of people that would be equivalent of our own Alabama trailer trash population. Poorly educated, no real feasible prospects of upward advancement, and grossly ignorant of the worlds coming and goings. Then mister gubment man comes along and offers you 3x to 5x your monthly pay to go and fight the good fight against neo nazis? And do so in a uniformed body where you can bask in pride and brotherhood with your comrades? Granted reality hits hard in the trenches but it's enough to get bodies now and for the foreseeable future. Some are aware of course and that number does seem to be growing but ultimately Russia can keep this up for a while. Maybe even a long while yet. It's practically their national superpower.
If anyone doubts the Russian views of their own soldiers just know they will never even admit to the number of casualties they are taking. It's likely Russia itself doesn't even know exactly how many they have lost and probably never will. Some men just leave the villages and disappear for all intents and purposes to their friends and families.
We can't overlay our own ideals onto Russia. They are a completely different culture from us.
Damn. Was mindlessly scrolling through Reddit as one does at times and purely coincidentally came across a name I knew.
I know five men now who have spent time in and/or are still in Ukraine. Never even knew Graham was. I had fallen out of contact about three years ago. My fault on that. Have always been afraid to get that dreaded phone call or text msg for someone I knew over there. Never would have thought scrolling Reddit would be how I learned this time.
Met him doing disaster relief efforts bout a decade ago and quickly bonded. I could go on about his character but simply put, he was a real one. Everyone knows what I'm talking about. A man who once was befriended, would die for you with zero hesitation. He didn't need to be in Ukraine. He was a very successful man doing software in Austin. He could have a cush life but he was also a romantic who truly believed in liberty and fighting for right. A throwback rarely seen these days.
Fair winds and following seas, Marine
I know five men now who have spent time in and/or are still in Ukraine. Never even knew Graham was. I had fallen out of contact about three years ago. My fault on that. Have always been afraid to get that dreaded phone call or text msg for someone I knew over there. Never would have thought scrolling Reddit would be how I learned this time.
Met him doing disaster relief efforts bout a decade ago and quickly bonded. I could go on about his character but simply put, he was a real one. Everyone knows what I'm talking about. A man who once was befriended, would die for you with zero hesitation. He didn't need to be in Ukraine. He was a very successful man doing software in Austin. He could have a cush life but he was also a romantic who truly believed in liberty and fighting for right. A throwback rarely seen these days.
Fair winds and following seas, Marine
Eliminatus said:
Damn. Was mindlessly scrolling through Reddit as one does at times and purely coincidentally came across a name I knew.
I know five men now who have spent time in and/or are still in Ukraine. Never even knew Graham was. I had fallen out of contact about three years ago. My fault on that. Have always been afraid to get that dreaded phone call or text msg for someone I knew over there. Never would have thought scrolling Reddit would be how I learned this time.
Met him doing disaster relief efforts bout a decade ago and quickly bonded. I could go on about his character but simply put, he was a real one. Everyone knows what I'm talking about. A man who once was befriended, would die for you with zero hesitation. He didn't need to be in Ukraine. He was a very successful man doing software in Austin. He could have a cush life but he was also a romantic who truly believed in liberty and fighting for right. A throwback rarely seen these days.
Fair winds and following seas, Marine
All men die, but only a few truly live.
RIP brother.
Prigozhin made a run at it, and he had a private militia backing him and conspired with folks in the military. Failing to imagine how the common folk haven't done it yet is a failure of imagination.txags92 said:I am sure they have the bodies, but where is their public opinion? Russia lost less than 10% of that in 10 years in Afghanistan and pulled out in failure. I can't imagine how they have not overthrown their government yet with 300K lost and nothing substantive to show for it except a world that hates them and won't trade with them.Agthatbuilds said:
There's a long way to go. Russia has the bodies to replace big losses. But, obviously, the replacements are probably only good for catching bullets and little else.
Prigo may have had quality, but he needed quantity. Several million Russians in the streets together can't all be arrested at once. The problem is that nobody is willing to step forward to try to organize it. Putin has beaten the fight out of most Russians.Faustus said:Prigozhin made a run at it, and he had a private militia backing him and conspired with folks in the military. Failing to imagine how the common folk haven't done it yet is a failure of imagination.txags92 said:I am sure they have the bodies, but where is their public opinion? Russia lost less than 10% of that in 10 years in Afghanistan and pulled out in failure. I can't imagine how they have not overthrown their government yet with 300K lost and nothing substantive to show for it except a world that hates them and won't trade with them.Agthatbuilds said:
There's a long way to go. Russia has the bodies to replace big losses. But, obviously, the replacements are probably only good for catching bullets and little else.
Fair enough, although that seems less dangerous than what Prigozhin was about. You can wait protests out, and arrest ring leaders. Hong Kong found that out. Regardless appreciate all the posts and updates by those keeping us abreast.
This is absurd on its face. Link.Quote:
Putin has beaten the fight out of most Russians.
Quote:
Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced he intends to run in the 2024 presidential election. Putin is almost certain to win what would be his fifth term as Russian president.
The news comes as little surprise. Putin has led Russia for 24 years and polls suggest Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine has bolstered support for him.
Opinion polls
In September, Russian pollsters the Levada Center conducted a survey of Russian attitudes toward the war in Ukraine. When asked whether they supported the Russian military's actions in Ukraine, 73 per cent of respondents said "yes" or "definitely yes." In February 2022, the month of Russia's invasion, that number was 68 per cent.
Some might be skeptical of polls coming out of Russia, but it should be noted these figures are from an organization that has been deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government. It doesn't matter who does the polling the data suggests a majority of Russians support the war effort.
waste of time even talking about "elections" in Russianortex97 said:This is absurd on its face. Link.Quote:
Putin has beaten the fight out of most Russians.Quote:
Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced he intends to run in the 2024 presidential election. Putin is almost certain to win what would be his fifth term as Russian president.
The news comes as little surprise. Putin has led Russia for 24 years and polls suggest Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine has bolstered support for him.
Opinion polls
In September, Russian pollsters the Levada Center conducted a survey of Russian attitudes toward the war in Ukraine. When asked whether they supported the Russian military's actions in Ukraine, 73 per cent of respondents said "yes" or "definitely yes." In February 2022, the month of Russia's invasion, that number was 68 per cent.
Some might be skeptical of polls coming out of Russia, but it should be noted these figures are from an organization that has been deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government. It doesn't matter who does the polling the data suggests a majority of Russians support the war effort.
Saddam Hussein was routinely "elected" with well over 90% of the vote. When you make it mandatory to vote and you severely punish those who vote the wrong way, it is amazing how much "public support" you can show for anything you do.nortex97 said:This is absurd on its face. Link.Quote:
Putin has beaten the fight out of most Russians.Quote:
Russian president Vladimir Putin has announced he intends to run in the 2024 presidential election. Putin is almost certain to win what would be his fifth term as Russian president.
The news comes as little surprise. Putin has led Russia for 24 years and polls suggest Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine has bolstered support for him.
Opinion polls
In September, Russian pollsters the Levada Center conducted a survey of Russian attitudes toward the war in Ukraine. When asked whether they supported the Russian military's actions in Ukraine, 73 per cent of respondents said "yes" or "definitely yes." In February 2022, the month of Russia's invasion, that number was 68 per cent.
Some might be skeptical of polls coming out of Russia, but it should be noted these figures are from an organization that has been deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government. It doesn't matter who does the polling the data suggests a majority of Russians support the war effort.
What I meant by what I said is that Putin has criminalized and punished public dissent enough, and sent dissenters to the front lines to be cannon fodder enough, that nobody is willing to stick their neck out and try to be the face of opposition to him.
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