BREAKING: EU agrees to open accession talks with Ukraine

— BNO News (@BNONews) December 14, 2023

Here's a great blog narrative by a US volunteer illustrating how much nerve it takes to recon forward Russian positions on foot.

WATCHING

Did I read that right, they used S-400 missiles as ballistic attack missiles? That's a bit pricey of a missile to repurpose for Russia.

Robert C. Christian said:

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BREAKING: EU agrees to open accession talks with Ukraine

— BNO News (@BNONews) December 14, 2023

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Nice morale boost for Ukraine. MORE

Putin verifies the Dnipro crossing and says it's no big deal. Allowing your enemy to gain a bridgehead over a natural barrier like that is a good thing now, apparently?

Putin even talked about the front on the left bank of the Kherson region.

"A pocket has been created on the territory of the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro in Krynky. This Ukrainian bridgehead was purely created for media support and only for political reasons.

I… pic.twitter.com/hcMx1IhOhJ

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 14, 2023

Yes, creating a fire bag for your enemy to get their troops slaughtered in across a river unsupported by air power in a pocket of indefensible low-lying land dependent on small boats for re-supply is considered not un-sound strategy.

Man, that looks like a win for Nortex, but is the river frozen or something we don't know/

Think in the same speech Putin announced they won

74OA said:

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Here's a great blog narrative by a US volunteer illustrating how much nerve it takes to recon forward Russian positions on foot.

WATCHING

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Hey 740A,

This is meant in the nicest way, but this thread has been following the UK Volunteer since he was 76 years old and started fighting in Ukraine. He's pushing 78 now.

An incredible killing machine who has the skill and lust for it.

Reported 6 hours ago as I type this:

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Explosions were reported in Berdiansk and Mariupol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-december-explosions-were-reported-in-berdiansk-and-mariupol

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Big fire at the site of explosion in Mariupol

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/14-december-big-fire-at-the-site-of-explosion-in-mariupol

The use of prisoners as canon fodder by both sides is pretty gross but widespread;

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As a sidenote on this topic, Russian milblogger Kiril Federov recently interviewed an ex-Wagner fighter who spoke specifically about recruitment of various 'classes' of prisoners, and which were advantageous for different kinds of positions. For instance, the claim that murderers are prized in their natural combat abilities, and that they discovered those imprisoned for drug charges proved to be the worst soldiersthey were usually the first to die in combat:

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There was only an understanding that it was necessary to select boys under articles 105 and 111: murder and causing grievous bodily harm that ended in death.

Those who were on drug 228 died very quickly. A person who was addicted-as if hovering in the clouds, always dissatisfied, "rebellion inside", there is no buzz - in the war it ends badly. In war, you need attention, the ability to listen, to be prepared.

Those who are under the article for murder - there are no brakes, they have experience, they are already ready to kill, their hand will not waver. This is the commander's opinion without emotion.

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As gruesome as this sounds, recall that Ukraine is likewise heavily recruiting from prisons as well last I checked.

But continuing on with the article, the commander optimistically says the survival rate in positions is 70%, and drops to 10% for those who leave their positions.

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The commander says he is short of men and unable to send his soldiers for rest or even training. But the most problematic aspect, he insists, is the shortage of ammunition.
"The trend has been apparent since the summer. But on the Russian side, it's quite the opposite. They have been reinforced by a new artillery brigade, five divisions, with two Tornado [multiple rocket launchers] and Grads, as well as 2S3 self-propelled guns. Opposite me, I have thirty MSTA-B howitzers, while I only have two. They have fired 5,000 shells in the last twenty-four hours. There's never been such asymmetry!"

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This is one of the first such specific admissions from the AFU sidehe says he only has 2 howitzers while Russia has over 30 just in his quadrant alone.

What's shocking is that this is corroborated by another recent report straight from a Russian soldier who said AFU's shelling has dropped so low there that they return 1 shell for every 50 that Russia fires.

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The Times on Avdiivka:

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The war in Ukraine is at a critical moment. The fall of Avdiivka would mean Ukrainian forces fall back to the reservoirs of Karlivka and the heights at Ocheretyne. Karlivka supplies water to the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas, with any battle there severely disrupting its flow. Seizing the heights at Ocheretyne, two miles away, would allow the Russians to begin razing Myrnohrad, a city of 50,000.

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In fact, they highlight how the AFU may be forced back 20km, leading to the entire Donbass front's collapse:

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On the same day, Roman Svitan, one of the country's most respected military experts, warned that a Russian breakthrough at the town of Avdiivka could lead to "a 20-kilometer retreat" and "the collapse of the entire front" in the Donbass.

Holding Avdiivka, he added, was "not a political issue [referring to the fierce resistance at Bakhmut during the previous winter], but a purely military necessity".

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Most saliently he points out above that unlike Bakhmut, Adveevka is a genuine strategically important city, conceding that Bakhmut's defense entirely revolved around mere grandstanding for a Western audience in an ego and pride-driven effort to prove Russia couldn't push the 'mighty' Ukrainians back.

The article goes on to sermonize on the importance of Avdeevka, and the psychological blow its loss would deliver. It segues into ammunition problems, as always:

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"It's a ****ty situation," Sausage said. The shell shortage forces soldiers like Sergeant Taras "Fizruk", a 31-year-old mortar gunner, also from the 2nd Battalion, to make impossible life and death decisions.

"We had ten times more ammunition over summer, and better quality," he said. "American rounds come in batches of almost identical weights, which makes it easier to correct fire, with very few duds. Now we have shells from all over the world with different qualities and we only get 15 for three days. Last week we got a batch full of duds."

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If Ukraine wants to win or at least come to a reasonable negotiated settlement, they will have to start targeting Russian infrastructure inside Russia itself, to up the logistical and economic costs of the war. I don't know how they can accomplish this, however.

The issue there is it "justifies" Putin moving this from a Special Operation to a full mobilization. We know that's BS but it could support him. It's just a risk factor.

I think it's worth the risk. Putin has probably avoided mobilization so as to avoid a coup and/or complete tanking of his economy

AlaskanAg99 said:

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The issue there is it "justifies" Putin moving this from a Special Operation to a full mobilization. We know that's BS but it could support him. It's just a risk factor.

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I think it's highly unlikely Putin is moving to a full mobilization. Yes, liar, propaganda, etc, but all indications are that this is not the case:

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The next big revelation Putin made was regarding the current force dispositions. Here are the numbers he gave:

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Putin addressed questions related to mobilization:
At the beginning of the mobilization, there was a lot of irony about such a call, but those mobilized fight excellently.
14 mobilized individuals have been awarded the title of Heroes of Russia.
Currently, 244,000 mobilized individuals are in the special operation zone, with 41,000 discharged due to health reasons or reaching the maximum age.
This year, 486,000 people have already joined the Russian army on a contract basis.
Every day, 1,500 Russian men enlist in the Russian Armed Forces, and the flow of those willing to defend the homeland with weapons in hand continues.
All volunteers in the special operation must be placed under absolutely identical conditions as the military.
Amendments will be made to the law to ensure that volunteers in the special operation receive the same support as the military.
There is no need for a new wave of mobilization in Russia.

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Let's break these numbers down and compare them to some recent extrapolations from the Ukrainian side.
So we know about the 300k mobilized in September 2022. Putin says that 244k of them are still in the SMO zone, while 41k have returned home either for health reasons or due to aging out.

This alone is interesting, because at first glance, most people would assume that if there's 244k remaining, the rest are the dead/casualties. But he specifically said 41k of them returned home alive, perhaps implying that 244k + 41k = 285k, which would mean 15k of them are the casualties.

What's interesting is that MediaZona has a "confirmed" ~4,500 mobilized dead on their list. We can infer that if almost 5k of them died, then it's fairly plausible that another 10k could be seriously wounded or disabled enough to not be able to continue fighting anymore. This gives credence to Putin's numbers.
Keep in mind MediaZona currently has Russia at 38k total dead.

Next, he gives 486k as the number of new enlistments this year. If you recall, Russia set ~420k as the goal by end of year. These are the troops for Shoigu's new army corps and military districts, which are meant for the reserve.

Putin again explicitly said there will be no second mobilization, rhetorically asking "For what?" because Russia now has, according to him, 617k total troops operating in the 'Northern Military District zone'
These numbers are always tricky because there is an endless amount of ways you can configure them based on factors like: are we counting bayonet strength, counting other services like Navy, Airforce, etc.?
There is certainly not anywhere close to 617k troops on the actual contact line on the front. That number appears closer to 250k give or take. So what does the 617k represent?
We know Putin gave 244k as the remaining mobilized forces. I already said Shoigu's newly raised 487k are not for the SMOat least for nowbut he did say previously that a certain number of them 40-80k would be sent to the SMO. Let's just say by this point it's closer to 80k. Thus we have 244k + 80k = 324k. Now we have to add the original armed forces totals of the Russian army, LDPR, volunteer/PMCs, etc., not counting the mobilized. This could be anywhere from 200-250k if we count how high the volunteer and PMC forces swelled over the course of the conflict, with Wagner alone claiming to have gotten to 50k+ men, which presumably are now dispersed throughout various units.
So 250k + 324k = 574k. This is coming close to Putin's 617k figure. Note that Putin's full statement was:

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According to Putin, around 244,000 mobilized troops are now deployed in the conflict zone, many of them in maintenance battalions in the rear. He added that 41,000 had been discharged for health reasons or because they had reached the maximum age. -RT

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So this partly explains the disparity between the frontline and total figures. As I said, out of the 617k total, more than half of them are not only on 50/50 rotation, sitting in the rear, but are also in various rear units, like the maintenance variety Putin referenced.
To compare, head of Zelensky's political party, David Arakhamia, last week gave the following figures for Ukraine's own current military size:

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Some Ukrainian manpower information from recent interviews:

Parliamentary leader of Zelensky's ''Servant of the People'' party David Arakhamia:
''1 million people are mobilized, 500,000 are fighting, 250,00 are fighting on the first (front) lines.''

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This seems to confirm to me that the frontlines are roughly 250k on each side, with both sides potentially having an additional 250-300k in the rear as rotational reserves. This leaves 500k that's "not fighting" in his estimation, which likely refers to various non-combat support roles in the rear.

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We can debate numbers all we want, but it's unlikely either side has much more or less than 250K along the present FEBA, imho. A 'full mobilization' would as such seem very unlikely. The Russians are advancing/ramping up in a very stereotypical/expected manner, while ammo/artillery shortages are pretty broadly reported for the Ukrainians:

"Russia’s total production & recovery of artillery ammunition will reach 3.5m units in 2023, representing a more than threefold increase from the previous year’s production. In 2024, production and recovery will increase further ... up to 4.5m units" https://t.co/TSFGZA4BHA pic.twitter.com/IN0sVOVZ7Z

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) December 15, 2023

Overview of change in Russian tactics and troop mobilization. Russia maintaining the numbers but troop quality reduced.

Russia's problem isn't shells.

It is gun barrels and accuracy and reliability.

They lost a lot of artillery. What they do have is being worn out at an incredible rate. Quality steel and manufacturing capacity to make new replacement barrels is very limited.

They can fire their shells from increasingly worn barrels but this requires a lot more shell expenditures as accuracy and range will suffer. Accidents will also increase.

This problem will become acute for Russia in 2024. Plenty of shells but they can't hit the target reliably so more and more are wasted.

Logistics is also their Achilles heal and always has been. One of the many reasons they are completely incapable of an offensive.

What Russia cannot steal; it ruins for anyone else.

MINES

MouthBQ98 said:

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Russia's problem isn't shells.

It is gun barrels and accuracy and reliability.

They lost a lot of artillery. What they do have is being worn out at an incredible rate. Quality steel and manufacturing capacity to make new replacement barrels is very limited.

They can fire their shells from increasingly worn barrels but this requires a lot more shell expenditures as accuracy and range will suffer. Accidents will also increase.

This problem will become acute for Russia in 2024. Plenty of shells but they can't hit the target reliably so more and more are wasted.

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That's also assuming all those high quality shells they're paying out the ass for don't blow up in the barrels since they bought them from third world tyrants just like themselves.

Lot's of explosions and fires in occupied Ukranian territory today. And hopefully more dead Russian invaders!

trip said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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Being so short-sighted as to allow Russia to prevail in Ukraine will end up being far more expensive for the US in both dollars and global influence compared to the modest cost of helping Kiev remain independent.

CONQUEST

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This X100.

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Add the fact that we promised their defense when the gave up their nukes and we also loose trust in our allies.

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740A's wording of "Global Influence" includes alot and may need to be more defined for the naysayers or shortsighted.

I will just use one important part of that is Deterrence to evil Globally.

JFABNRGR said:

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trip said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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74OA said:

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Being so short-sighted as to allow Russia to prevail in Ukraine will end up being far more expensive for the US in both dollars and global influence compared to the modest cost of helping Kiev remain independent.

CONQUEST

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This X100.

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Add the fact that we promised their defense when the gave up their nukes and we also loose trust in our allies.

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740A's wording of "Global Influence" includes alot and may need to be more defined for the naysayers or shortsighted.

I will just use one important part of that is Deterrence to evil Globally.

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Beyond deterrence, I'm referring to our ability to influence other states to align their policies and conduct more closely with our own preferences. It's about having the resources and moral authority to encourage other states to want to be aligned with us.

Sufficient resources for military and economic influence aren't a problem, but other state's perception of our determination to actually walk our talk on any issue is increasingly problematic. It will take a major hit if we abandon Ukraine to Russian conquest.

China, for example, is less likely to believe we really will back Taiwan with blood and treasure if we don't have the will to back Ukraine with money alone.

In other words, what happens in Ukraine is key for the world to keep believing the US says what it means, means what it says and has the guts to back it up.

AgLA06 said:

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Typical Nortex quality post.

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Indeed. Same "quantity is quality" logic we've seen every day since Feb 2022.

Lots of nitty gritty map analysis by Andrew Perpetua. I'm still early on in this video. He's got a lot of good coverage overall, though.

Close encounters with a Bradley. Would not want to be an orc in that armor.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/nCA7uQt7E4

Russia and Ukraine race to out-innovate each other on the battlefield.

MOVE-COUNTERMOVE

Today, Russians attempted another attack on Avdiivka front.
Deepstate about today’sattack:

“Today, Russians again marched in a column in the area of ​​the Avdiivka Terekon.

About 15 AFVs with infantry drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terekon, dropped the infantry… pic.twitter.com/eKWwjcV9ld

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 16, 2023

Full text:

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Today, Russians attempted another attack on Avdiivka front.
Deepstate about today'sattack:

"Today, Russians again marched in a column in the area of the Avdiivka Terekon.

About 15 AFVs with infantry drove through Krasnohorivka to the south to Terekon, dropped the infantry and drove back. Thanks to the combined efforts of all the brigades on the site more than half of the equipment was destroyed. The infantry is now concentrated in the windbreaks, its destruction continues. Expect a video of Russian equipment destruction from the Ukrainian brigades in the coming days.

Tactics generally do not change. Regular column attacks in the hope of a quick operation. Again, we are talking about the important role of observing the frontline from drones and other UAVs, which reduce to zero the possibility of any blitzkrieg on an operational-tactical level."

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