***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,111,793 Views | 46384 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by Waffledynamics
JFABNRGR
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JFABNRGR said:

Eliminatus said:

Damn. Was mindlessly scrolling through Reddit as one does at times and purely coincidentally came across a name I knew.

I know five men now who have spent time in and/or are still in Ukraine. Never even knew Graham was. I had fallen out of contact about three years ago. My fault on that. Have always been afraid to get that dreaded phone call or text msg for someone I knew over there. Never would have thought scrolling Reddit would be how I learned this time.

Met him doing disaster relief efforts bout a decade ago and quickly bonded. I could go on about his character but simply put, he was a real one. Everyone knows what I'm talking about. A man who once was befriended, would die for you with zero hesitation. He didn't need to be in Ukraine. He was a very successful man doing software in Austin. He could have a cush life but he was also a romantic who truly believed in liberty and fighting for right. A throwback rarely seen these days.

Fair winds and following seas, Marine



All men die, but only a few truly live.

RIP brother.


Sounds like this guy was the one, that One.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irish-born-us-marine-killed-in-ukraine-drone-attack-hailed-as-hero-for-fighting-18-russian-soldiers/ar-AA1lAsm3?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=aa178e4f9a314a86ae4b299dde9817b7&ei=24
74OA
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How Germany manipulated Hungary at the EU summit and other notes.

UPDATES
nortex97
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ABATTBQ11 said:

nortex97 said:

Yes, creating a fire bag for your enemy to get their troops slaughtered in across a river unsupported by air power in a pocket of indefensible low-lying land dependent on small boats for re-supply is considered not un-sound strategy.


They have significant artillery support and are pinning down a significant number of Russian troops to keep them from advancing.

It takes a special kind of logic to spin this as a negative.
The NYT has a special kind of logic:

Quote:

NYT:
Waves of Ukrainian troops have been struck down on the river banks or in the water, even before they reach the other side.

Conditions are so difficult, a half-dozen men involved in the fighting said in interviews, that in most places, there is nowhere to dig in. The first approaches tend to be marshy islands threaded with rivulets or meadows that have become a quagmire of mud and bomb craters filled with water.

Several soldiers and marines spoke to journalists out of concern about the high casualties and what they said were overly optimistic accounts from officials about the progress of the offensive.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that it was not immediately possible to comment on the soldiers' accusations but that it would provide a response in due course.

But footage of the area, livestreamed from a drone and seen by The New York Times, verified soldiers' accounts of heavy Russian airstrikes that have destroyed the houses and turned the river bank into a mass of mud and splintered trees.

Fresh troops arriving on the east bank have to step on soldiers' bodies that lie tangled in the churned mud, said Oleksiy, an experienced soldier who fought in Krynky in October and has since crossed multiple times to help evacuate the wounded.

Some of the dead marines have been lying there for as long as two months, as units have been unable to retrieve the bodies because of the intense shelling, said Volodymyr, a deputy company commander who was attending the funeral of one of his men, identified only as Denys, last week.

"There are no positions. There is no such thing as an observation post or position," said Oleksiy. "It is impossible to gain a foothold there. It's impossible to move equipment there."
"It's not even a fight for survival," he added. "It's a suicide mission."

"People who end up there are not prepared psychologically," he said. "They don't even understand where they are going. They are not told by the command that sends them there."
Oleksiy agreed to let The Times publish his account out of frustration at the losses. "I did not see anything like this in Bakhmut or Soledar," he said, referring to two of the most intense battles on the eastern front. "It's so wasteful."
Business insider summary (NYT is a paywall). If they are trying to keep the Russians from advancing...it would be more logical to my mind to do so from the Ukrainian side of the river. But carry on.
txags92
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I don't think "keeping the Russians from advancing" is the objective of establishing a bridgehead.
ABATTBQ11
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Welcome to the perspective of every soldier in combat ever
Teslag
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Exactly. The comments I read sound very similar to those by American troops at Normandy or the South Pacific in the books I've read. War rarely makes sense at the micro level.
nortex97
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Welcome to the perspective of every soldier in combat ever
So what are they trying to do strategically/tactically, (a) advance from the beach head or (b) pin Russians down by virtue of their existence? Curious what they have wrong.

Pro-Ukrainian commentators have known about this open secret for months now:

ABATTBQ11
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Both. They've been making incremental gains, which has forced the Russians to keep forces there instead of sending them to the east. A larger area means more Russian focus and breathing room. They are a thorn in Russia's side because the Dnipro is supposed to be a natural barrier preventing this exact thing. That's why they blew the damn and tried very hard to keep the Ukrainians on the northern bank. Russia can't pull a lot of troops from the area because an actual amphibious crossing in force could be disastrous for them if they did.
txags92
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nortex97 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Welcome to the perspective of every soldier in combat ever
So what are they trying to do strategically/tactically, (a) advance from the beach head or (b) pin Russians down by virtue of their existence? Curious what they have wrong.

Pro-Ukrainian commentators have known about this open secret for months now:


The Russians spent a year+ building fixed defenses to stop troops coming south from Zaporizhzhia towards Tokmak and ultimately Crimea. By attacking across the river that was being used as a natural barrier, they force the orcs to shift troops eastward from those fixed defenses to stop advances from the bridgehead. It makes the fixed defenses weaker and if the Ukrainians can expand the bridgehead far enough to safely bring artillery, apvs, and tanks across, then they may find themselves advancing into the rear of the orc defenses and collapse them from two directions.
Waffledynamics
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Another Russian aircraft lost to their own air defenses.

Waffledynamics
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74OA
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More paramilitary attacks on Russian soil and other notes.

UPDATES
DukeMu
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Both. They've been making incremental gains, which has forced the Russians to keep forces there instead of sending them to the east. A larger area means more Russian focus and breathing room. They are a thorn in Russia's side because the Dnipro is supposed to be a natural barrier preventing this exact thing. That's why they blew the damn and tried very hard to keep the Ukrainians on the northern bank. Russia can't pull a lot of troops from the area because an actual amphibious crossing in force could be disastrous for them if they did.
Ukraine needs a lot more air power from the US, Poland, etc. to destroy minefields and make breakthroughs
74OA
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Germany orders over $400M in artillery shells for Ukraine. It's a start, but hurry.....

AMMO
74OA
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The 1994 agreement transferring Ukraine's nukes to Russia was signed by Russia, US and UK--all of whom gave formal security assurances protecting Ukraine from any subsequent threats, military force or economic coercion.

So, it's not only Russia whose word will be trash if Ukraine goes under.

FUNDS
74OA
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Europe continues to walk its talk in support of Ukraine.

AID
74OA
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Today's dismal SITREP.

The vast majority of military aid funding has been spent right here in the US to replenish our own stockpiles. "The nearly $45 billion in military aid provided to Ukraine by the Biden administration so far has helped "to jumpstart and to expand production lines in dozens of states across the country, where weapons and equipment of all manner and type can be produced and of course for American stocks to replenish and replace what we are sending to Ukraine," said Kirby. It "supports good-paying American jobs in the process and also is helping strengthen the production lines and strengthen our relationship with our defense industry across the country."
74OA
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More lessons-learned from Putin's war. Better we learn them now rather than in the middle of a big fight of our own. Thanks again, Vlad.

FIVE
WolfCall
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See excerpts from the Military Times article below on Graham Dale, who was "...killed Dec. 9 while fending off an attack by Russian troops on a Ukrainian poisition..."

IrishBornMarineKilledInUkraine
Quote:

Irish-born Marine veteran, who wrote of Iraq War, killed in Ukraine
By Irene Loewenson Dec 19, 11:51 AM

A Marine veteran who once penned a book about his experiences as an Irishman in the U.S. Marine Corps was killed in Ukraine.

Graham Dale, 45, was killed Dec. 9 while fending off an attack by Russian troops on a Ukrainian position, his commander, Ryan O'Leary, told Task & Purpose…..

…...In his 2009 book "The Green Marine: An Irishman's War in Iraq," written with Neil Fetherstonhaugh, Dale recounted living in the United States when the 9/11 attacks occurred and signing up for the Marines that very afternoon.

"I am not an American, but I couldn't remain impartial and say that this horrific act against my adopted home had nothing to do with me," Dale wrote, according to a piece Fetherstonhaugh published Thursday in The Sunday World."….


…...Dale is at least the eighth U.S. Marine veteran to have been killed in the war in Ukraine.

Other Marine veterans known to have died in the war are Joel David Beal, killed in October; Lance Lawrence, killed in July; Ian Frank Tortorici, 32, killed in June; Cooper "Harris" Andrews, 26, killed in April; Pete Reed, 33, killed in February; and Grady Kurpasi, 50, and Willy Joseph Cancel, 22, each killed in April 2022….


richardag
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WolfCall said:

See excerpts from the Military Times article below on Graham Dale, who was "...killed Dec. 9 while fending off an attack by Russian troops on a Ukrainian poisition..."

IrishBornMarineKilledInUkraine
Quote:

Irish-born Marine veteran, who wrote of Iraq War, killed in Ukraine
By Irene Loewenson Dec 19, 11:51 AM

A Marine veteran who once penned a book about his experiences as an Irishman in the U.S. Marine Corps was killed in Ukraine.

Graham Dale, 45, was killed Dec. 9 while fending off an attack by Russian troops on a Ukrainian position, his commander, Ryan O'Leary, told Task & Purpose…..

…...In his 2009 book "The Green Marine: An Irishman's War in Iraq," written with Neil Fetherstonhaugh, Dale recounted living in the United States when the 9/11 attacks occurred and signing up for the Marines that very afternoon.

"I am not an American, but I couldn't remain impartial and say that this horrific act against my adopted home had nothing to do with me," Dale wrote, according to a piece Fetherstonhaugh published Thursday in The Sunday World."….


…...Dale is at least the eighth U.S. Marine veteran to have been killed in the war in Ukraine.

Other Marine veterans known to have died in the war are Joel David Beal, killed in October; Lance Lawrence, killed in July; Ian Frank Tortorici, 32, killed in June; Cooper "Harris" Andrews, 26, killed in April; Pete Reed, 33, killed in February; and Grady Kurpasi, 50, and Willy Joseph Cancel, 22, each killed in April 2022….

True heroes, may their sacrifices be not vain.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
74OA
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Miscellaneous notes: UPDATES
74OA
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Ukraine intends to manufacture a million FPV drones next year and other notes from front.

Today's SITREP.
sclaff
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Waffledynamics
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Oof.
sclaff
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BQ_90
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sclaff said:




Awesome blossom
74OA
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Very interesting look at whether or not Russia might use a cease-fire to regroup and re-attack, or will it have sufficient resources to get it done even if it wanted to.

CEASEFIRE?
PlaneCrashGuy
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I believe that is likely their plan.
Teslag
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

I believe that is likely their plan.


I think this is why any ceasefire or peace deal be predicated on Ukraine becoming a nato member or at least a permanent nato presence in the country
Eliminatus
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A few sources claiming three RU aircraft shot down, likely SU-34s.

If true, I'm thinking another PATRIOT ambush. Which would also mean unlikely the pilots survived. Not war changing in itself but most here will realize that these are incredibly valuable assets than any nation would feel if lost. It's how you eat an elephant, one bite at a time.

Waiting for RUSI or ISW or similar to confirm though. Either way I bet something definitely occurred overnight that the Russians did not like.
AlaskanAg99
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You mean this?

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-lost-three-su-34-bombers-one-day-ukraine-air-force-1854931
JFABNRGR
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Eliminatus said:

A few sources claiming three RU aircraft shot down, likely SU-34s.

If true, I'm thinking another PATRIOT ambush. Which would also mean unlikely the pilots survived. Not war changing in itself but most here will realize that these are incredibly valuable assets than any nation would feel if lost. It's how you eat an elephant, one bite at a time.

Waiting for RUSI or ISW or similar to confirm though. Either way I bet something definitely occurred overnight that the Russians did not like.
one may have survived. Not sure he can fly again and likely doesn't want to.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/18oehj2/aftermath_of_su34_shootdown_pilots_gear_after/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Confirmations of losses but np numbers on russian channels.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/18odqpt/russian_tg_channel_fighterbomber_confirmed_combat/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
JFABNRGR
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Looks like another marine was KIA and I did not know 46 Americans have been killed to date in Ukraine.

Looks like his folks are at peace with his loss and proud of his sacrifice "for a people he fell in love with".

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-veteran-ukraine-ethan-hertweck/
74OA
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Ukraine has apparently given Russia an expensive early Christmas present it won't enjoy unwrapping.

SU-34s
MouthBQ98
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Russia kept bombing the same small area at the river crossing and that made them susceptible to a planned ambush. Move a middle battery close up, wait for a strike, then go hot and shoot what you can, then pack up and relocate.
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