Yep. Ukraine must be allied to join nato and host a presence
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 1 hr ago by Waffledynamics
Quote:
Yep. Ukraine must be [allowed] to join nato and host a presence
Assuming we're not talking demonic possession I'd like to see a strong Turkish contingent. It's time the Turks started pulling their weight instead of leveraging membership, and they could conduct Black Sea exercises together.
Quote:
Ukrainian forces shot down Russian Su-24M bomber near Zmiiny island
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-december-ukrainian-forces-shot-down-russian-su24-bomber
Waffledynamics said:Quote:
Ukrainian forces shot down Russian Su-24M bomber near Zmiiny island
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-december-ukrainian-forces-shot-down-russian-su24-bomber
I remember watching an interesting video on the Patriot system. Which this looks like it was. I can't find it now, but a SME was saying that the Patriot missile itself, tends to hone in on the cockpit. Whether it's designed to do that or simply a consequence of its capabilities I don't know but he also mentioned that no known pilot shot down by a confirmed Patriot has survived. So far in this current war, that continues to check out.
Just thought that was super interesting. And though brutal, it's damned smart if engineered that way. Aside from maybe brigade commanders and up, there is no one more valuable than a combat pilot on a battlefield. The cost alone to train a competent pilot is horrendous. And likely no one as destructive. Killing/capturing these assets is imperative to an opposing force. And protecting them just as much for the other side. I've spent time on a TRAP team and it really opened my eyes to some realities.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726055691331199312.html
It's hard to wrap my mind around the fact that Russia had a compelling need for additional medium artillery that justified transporting that gun and ammo 4200 miles.
It's hard to wrap my mind around the fact that Russia had a compelling need for additional medium artillery that justified transporting that gun and ammo 4200 miles.
More on the shoot-down: SU-24
It's an effect of calculating lead and trying to hit the warhead/seeker section of a missile target to maximize odds of a vehicle kill. That happens to be a cockpit in an aircraft.
Quote:
there is no one more valuable than a combat pilot on a battlefield
Finally people are talking some sense around here
Unless they've changed it since I worked on it, the PAC-3 gets an initial ground radar lock and basically flies to a "waypoint". At that point it would get another update (midcourse correction)...and then for the last several seconds of flight, it was guided by its onboard radar for the final homing. I don't think there would any reason for it to pick the cockpit (I guess it's at the front?)...but then it's a hit to kill missile so it doesn't really need to. When it hits, it would be hypersonic, and the kinetic energy is going to vaporize anything it hits.Eliminatus said:Waffledynamics said:Quote:
Ukrainian forces shot down Russian Su-24M bomber near Zmiiny island
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-december-ukrainian-forces-shot-down-russian-su24-bomber
I remember watching an interesting video on the Patriot system. Which this looks like it was. I can't find it now, but a SME was saying that the Patriot missile itself, tends to hone in on the cockpit. Whether it's designed to do that or simply a consequence of its capabilities I don't know but he also mentioned that no known pilot shot down by a confirmed Patriot has survived. So far in this current war, that continues to check out.
Just thought that was super interesting. And though brutal, it's damned smart if engineered that way. Aside from maybe brigade commanders and up, there is no one more valuable than a combat pilot on a battlefield. The cost alone to train a competent pilot is horrendous. And likely no one as destructive. Killing/capturing these assets is imperative to an opposing force. And protecting them just as much for the other side. I've spent time on a TRAP team and it really opened my eyes to some realities.
Granted, it was a pure ABM back then, so maybe things have changed.
Not contradicting you, Eliminatus, just giving some of my insight on that system.
They have/had various missiles including but not limited to pac-3's
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/we-now-know-the-types-of-patriot-missiles-being-used-in-ukraine
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/we-now-know-the-types-of-patriot-missiles-being-used-in-ukraine
The PAC-2 is great for AA. That's what it was originally designed for. It wasn't that great at being an ABM because the way it killed aircraft (detonate warhead so that aircraft gets hit with shrapnel and lifting surfaces stopped lifting) didn't work on ballistic missiles (no lifting surfaces to lose lift). PAC-3 was designed to fix that issue.GAC06 said:
They have/had various missiles including but not limited to pac-3's
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/we-now-know-the-types-of-patriot-missiles-being-used-in-ukraine
Since it was accurate enough to hit BMs (no poop jokes, please), it should easily be able to hit aircraft. And didn't need a warhead - although it has a lethality enhancer.
Glad to hear they've got a good mix of them. Should make the Ukes pretty lethal against any Russian planes.
The article stated it was flying with a SU30. Doesn't this system have the capability to take out both?
Whats your thoughts on that ADA felllas?
Whats your thoughts on that ADA felllas?
I mainly come to this thread to read about all our bad ass military equipment, its a good way to educate yourself a little.. anyway this Vampire system is pretty bad ass, it's takes the 70mm rockets which we have millions of and makes them guided weapons. Those videos in the linked article do a nice job showing how it works,74OA said:
VAMPIRE
Great technical post, I bet the Ukrainians are loving these guided rockers .. great for ground to air drone protection
Simple answer, yes.JFABNRGR said:
The article stated it was flying with a SU30. Doesn't this system have the capability to take out both?
Whats your thoughts on that ADA felllas?
Since you can slap them on an old Humvee or similar vehicle, I wonder why we don't have these in large numbers to escort every unit company or larger. Seems it would make a lot of sense with the way drone warfare is headed to provide integrated unit support for short range AA.fullback44 said:I mainly come to this thread to read about all our bad ass military equipment, its a good way to educate yourself a little.. anyway this Vampire system is pretty bad ass, it's takes the 70mm rockets which we have millions of and makes them guided weapons. Those videos in the linked article do a nice job showing how it works,74OA said:
VAMPIRE
Great technical post, I bet the Ukrainians are loving these guided rockers .. great for ground to air drone protection
AgLA06 said:Since you can slap them on an old Humvee or similar vehicle, I wonder why we don't have these in large numbers to escort every unit company or larger. Seems it would make a lot of sense with the way drone warfare is headed to provide integrated unit support for short range AA.fullback44 said:I mainly come to this thread to read about all our bad ass military equipment, its a good way to educate yourself a little.. anyway this Vampire system is pretty bad ass, it's takes the 70mm rockets which we have millions of and makes them guided weapons. Those videos in the linked article do a nice job showing how it works,74OA said:
VAMPIRE
Great technical post, I bet the Ukrainians are loving these guided rockers .. great for ground to air drone protection
Because they're basically brand new.
Yep, and the Army has a plethora of other counter-drone systems either in production or test.
Vampire is one of the latter. ISO
Vampire is one of the latter. ISO
Stalled US aid for Ukraine is becoming a crisis and other notes from the front.
Today's SITREP.
Today's SITREP.
Composure and firmness. Regardless of who, where and how they voted in any country in the world, we will not stop defending our country, we will not give up a single piece of our land and we will not forgive anyone killed or injured. We will focus, draw conclusions, reload our…
— Oleksiy Danilov (@OleksiyDanilov) December 7, 2023
"The Kremlin said it hoped US lawmakers would continue to block White House requests for emergency aid for Ukraine amid an internal feud in Washington over immigration reforms." Ya think?
UPDATES
UPDATES
At the end of the day, this is an issue in the EU backyard. They should be pulling the lions share of support.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
The stalled air will encourage Russia to make a final heavy surge to take what more it can while Ukraine might be weakening, before Russia itself is exhausted of resources and more economically damaged.
It's a game of Will and patience.
The problem may be that the administration was so afraid of escalating with Russia early on, they missed the only window where they had hope of enough Ukrainian success to help Ukraine roll back Russian gains enough to threaten Russian stability and war support and force favorable negotiations.
Instead Ukraine was supplied well enough to stall the initial attack, drive back the worst overreaches, and stabilize their front lines but in positions that don't favor Ukraine in any negotiation.
NATO first declared they are in it for the long haul very publicly (twice now, in fact, historically) and the goals are to help Ukraine restore its territory with adequate support,. Now that publicly declared support is altering after many NATO nations began slow playing aid, bleeding both a Russia and Ukraine but not allowing for a substantial Ukrainian counteroffensive.
So, letting up now sends a clear message: the west are not reliable allies in the long run and you can defy them politically and militarily if you are just patient. That message encourages international instability and more wars. We can of course ignore those and dismiss them but they have real long term economic impacts on a nation such as ours that is a global trade hegemony and benefits greatly from favorable trade facilitated by the security and stability we oversee.
Leaving Ukraine to its fate might seem inconsequential and it may mostly be in isolation, but there is much to consider outside of that. Once our power ceases to be respected and our words become seen as empty, we will be tested and challenged far more often, and that comes at a price eventually.
It's a game of Will and patience.
The problem may be that the administration was so afraid of escalating with Russia early on, they missed the only window where they had hope of enough Ukrainian success to help Ukraine roll back Russian gains enough to threaten Russian stability and war support and force favorable negotiations.
Instead Ukraine was supplied well enough to stall the initial attack, drive back the worst overreaches, and stabilize their front lines but in positions that don't favor Ukraine in any negotiation.
NATO first declared they are in it for the long haul very publicly (twice now, in fact, historically) and the goals are to help Ukraine restore its territory with adequate support,. Now that publicly declared support is altering after many NATO nations began slow playing aid, bleeding both a Russia and Ukraine but not allowing for a substantial Ukrainian counteroffensive.
So, letting up now sends a clear message: the west are not reliable allies in the long run and you can defy them politically and militarily if you are just patient. That message encourages international instability and more wars. We can of course ignore those and dismiss them but they have real long term economic impacts on a nation such as ours that is a global trade hegemony and benefits greatly from favorable trade facilitated by the security and stability we oversee.
Leaving Ukraine to its fate might seem inconsequential and it may mostly be in isolation, but there is much to consider outside of that. Once our power ceases to be respected and our words become seen as empty, we will be tested and challenged far more often, and that comes at a price eventually.
My personal view is we are in a "you break it, you buy it" situation right now and we need to make an adequate commitment to Ukraine through 2024 to give them a chance to overextend Russia production capacity and hoped make some strategic gains for better future negotiations, but with a clear message that this will demand Ukraine start looking at negotiations that involve territorial concessions and other concessions that are realistic to bring Russia to the table,
Maybe we could start the America First Committee Mr. Lindbergh.AlaskanAg99 said:
At the end of the day, this is an issue in the EU backyard. They should be pulling the lions share of support.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
That's a stretch.AgLA06 said:Maybe we could start the America First Committee Mr. Lindbergh.AlaskanAg99 said:
At the end of the day, this is an issue in the EU backyard. They should be pulling the lions share of support.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
As long as the EU nations are incapable of defending themselves (which they are, by their own admission), there is going to be a problem with an aggressive Russia as a neighbor. Taking prime responsibility for Ukraine's defense, not only by sending money but ramping up their manufacturing of munitions and arms, is a sensible first step in any policy of Russian containment. I think it would be mistake for America to simply walk away, but we have good reasons for demanding that Europe carry more of the load here.
Europe already is paying the lion's share. The EU and individual European nations have contributed more than the US in both total dollars and in percent of GDP.AlaskanAg99 said:
At the end of the day, this is an issue in the EU backyard. They should be pulling the lions share of support.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
"America has spent about 10 percent of one year's defense budget aiding and arming Ukraine since Russia's invasion in early 2022. With that, Ukraine "has destroyed half of Russia's pre-war military assets." "Now, if that isn't a good investment, I don't know what is," Cameron said.
It's an investment being shared across the world, Cameron said. European military, civilian, economic, and humanitarian aid is roughly $160 billion, and the U.K. is the second largest donor after the U.S. at $44 billion
Ukraine aid has also helped reinvigorate the U.S. industrial base, Cameron noted, pointing to recent analyses that found almost 90 percent of the money spent on Ukraine stays in America to manufacture weaponry and materiel."
VALUE
Additionally, the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker shows that, as a % of GDP, all but two European countries have given more than the US has. Not to say I think any country should necessarily stop giving support. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
twk said:That's a stretch.AgLA06 said:Maybe we could start the America First Committee Mr. Lindbergh.AlaskanAg99 said:
At the end of the day, this is an issue in the EU backyard. They should be pulling the lions share of support.
Doesn't bother me thar we sent obsolete hardware over but as that dries up EU countries need to be paying to support Ukraine.
As long as the EU nations are incapable of defending themselves (which they are, by their own admission), there is going to be a problem with an aggressive Russia as a neighbor. Taking prime responsibility for Ukraine's defense, not only by sending money but ramping up their manufacturing of munitions and arms, is a sensible first step in any policy of Russian containment. I think it would be mistake for America to simply walk away, but we have good reasons for demanding that Europe carry more of the load here.
EU didn't disarm Ukraine.
S. Korea has also surged in aid out of nowhere. The SKs have industrialized to a scale I don't think much of the world is aware of. At this point, they are a powerhouse in the MIC world and won't be long I think before they contest us as arms provider of the world. Poland is attempting to build up a top tier military at pretty much wartime urgency and the SKs are the ones are a huge factor in that plan with novel armored vehicles and artillery. Poland plans to be THE big dick in Europe and they are spending very quickly to make it happen.
I think Poland realizes what some on here do not. There's a war at their doorstep and no one can believe anything Russia says. Especially that the war stops on the other side of the Polish border. I have no understanding of their command structure, capability, etc., but one thing I do know is relatively soon Poland will have an army equipped on a scale similar to the US. And if Ukraine does fold and Poland finds themselves threatened, we're going to have a much larger conflict on our hands.Eliminatus said:
S. Korea has also surged in aid out of nowhere. The SKs have industrialized to a scale I don't think much of the world is aware of. At this point, they are a powerhouse in the MIC world and won't be long I think before they contest us as arms provider of the world. Poland is attempting to build up a top tier military at pretty much wartime urgency and the SKs are the ones are a huge factor in that plan with novel armored vehicles and artillery. Poland plans to be THE big dick in Europe and they are spending very quickly to make it happen.
Because I personally believe they'd be a fool to wait for Russia to attack them and let them get all the way to their borders.
Russia and Poland had a pretty nasty war in 1919-1920 time frame (plus others going back to different historical eras); not to mention the Soviet-Nazi partition in WW2. There is a pretty long memory of Russian aggression there and Russian problems always seem to spill over into Poland.
After a 2 month lull, Russian Tu-95MS bombers launching long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 19 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles https://t.co/T5v5Qsd6AA… Also 5 of 7 Shahed drones downed. And 6 S-300 missiles from Belgorod hit Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/w94DZnZGIb
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) December 8, 2023
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