Kherson region, left bank, Krynky

Херсонщина,лівий берег,Кринки pic.twitter.com/y6p2u43IY2

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 2, 2023

Back to an actual tactical and strategic update;

Significant developments in Ukraine today suggesting the Ukrainian position in front of Donetsk City - the single most stubbornly held line in the entire war - is crumbling.

Specifically, the Russians finally took Maryinka and Avdeevka is looking increasingly untenable.⬇️

These… pic.twitter.com/T0w409WC3s

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) December 2, 2023

Here's new imagery of Russia's Sevastopol harbor defenses in Crimea that were recently battered by storms. pic.twitter.com/q04uVxyOnI

— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) December 2, 2023

Avdiivka sector, Donetsk region
Destroyed Russian armored vehicles

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) November 27, 2023

The number of units on DeepState's map is insane. Ukraine needs to attrit more Russians for the winter.

pic.twitter.com/FeJOF7HSEH

— James Holland (@jamesholland123) December 2, 2023

https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/02/russians-support-of-ukraine-war-collapses-finds-poll

The Russians took an entire year to move from the outskirts of one side of Maryinka to the other side. It isn't even that big. Maybe 3 Km wide at most.

docb said:

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https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/02/russians-support-of-ukraine-war-collapses-finds-poll

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Does anyone actually believe Putin will lose an election? No way he allows that to happen. Even if an actual competitor emerged and managed to secure more votes Putin wouldn't leave office. He would just declare the election invalid.

bonfarr said:

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docb said:

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https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/02/russians-support-of-ukraine-war-collapses-finds-poll

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Does anyone actually believe Putin will lose an election? No way he allows that to happen. Even if an actual competitor emerged and managed to secure more votes Putin wouldn't leave office. He would just declare the election invalid.

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It isn't about elections, but about civil unrest. That's also what Ukraine needs to count on, since they have fewer people.

Ukraine's best hope is Russian internal upheaval and chaos providing a window to win back some territory. The west doesn't want that as odds are pretty good any Russian alternative leadership might be worse than Putin, and with a still formidable military arsenal. So the west has so far been content to drag this out, which is bleeding Ukraine out of economic resources and manpower faster than they can afford even with a Russia taking much higher losses.

This will go on unless the west decides to basically force Ukraine to settle in a relatively poor bargaining position, or substantially ups the aid and takes the gamble on Russian internal instability to bring this to an end somehow. This could go on for some time.

Russians execute surrendering Ukrainian troops and other notes.

UPDATES

Russian soldiers shot two unarmed Ukrainian POWs that surrendered near Stepove. The Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly left without ammunition and had to surrender, once the second soldier came out, they decided to shoot them both.

Never forget what Ukraine is fighting against. pic.twitter.com/x53IuF6sSY

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 2, 2023

Ukraine aid. "We are out of money and nearly out of time," Young said. The Pentagon, she said, had used 97% of the $62.3bn it received as of mid-November. And the state department had run through all of the $4.7bn in military assistance it received, including money for humanitarian assistance and economic and civilian security assistance."

CRISIS

The synergy between the Russian A-50U and the S-400 is interesting.

MORE RISK

The news comes amid speculation in Western and Ukrainian media about alleged disagreements between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, which have received a lot of public attention following Zaluzhnyi's sobering op-ed on the state of the war for The Economist.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 4, 2023

The U.S. is set to run out of funds to support Ukraine in the coming weeks if Congress does not take action, White House Budget Office Director Shalanda Young informed congressional leaders in a letter on Dec. 4.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 4, 2023

Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled https://t.co/zLRHpwtkmM pic.twitter.com/Z4rAjLSc2O

— Financial Times (@FT) December 4, 2023

As expected.

If Russia really did add another 170k troops and Ukraine is not receiving funding from the West 2024 may be the final year of the major conflicts unless Ukraine can change tactics over the winter. Russia will install more defenses this year.

Where is in Vietnam (jungle), Afghanistan (mountains and overall terrain), and Iraq (densely populated urban areas) most of the east and south east has been reduced to rubble which makes guerilla tactics difficult.

Ukraine is going to run out of time. We can make excuses for them all day long but the fact they did not get any results from their big offensive probably sealed their fates. They can hope that public dissatisfaction in Russia with the war leads to some kind of political shakeup but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. Russia can keep throwing more meat into the grinder for another couple of years and Ukraine will be done when Western money dries up.

Ukraine has reached production of six
2S22 Bohdana 155 mm self-propelled howitzers per month. https://t.co/zRMotgbmiH pic.twitter.com/4dpOx7xSdk

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 4, 2023

Why the new 2S22 Bohdana is so important:

The 2S22 Bohdana is an impressive modern self-propelled howitzer with a range of up to 50km and an average fire rate of 6 shells per minute.

But most importantly, it's a system that has been designed, manufactured, improved and… pic.twitter.com/n5Szt5FwVJ

— WhereisRussiaToday (@WhereisRussia) August 11, 2023

Need good news on ammunition production.

bonfarr said:

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Ukraine is going to run out of time. We can make excuses for them all day long but the fact they did not get any results from their big offensive probably sealed their fates. They can hope that public dissatisfaction in Russia with the war leads to some kind of political shakeup but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. Russia can keep throwing more meat into the grinder for another couple of years and Ukraine will be done when Western money dries up.

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Russia doesn't have the ability to mount an offensive and meatgrinder strategies don't work in 2024. This thing will largely freeze along current lines.

Teslag said:

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bonfarr said:

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Ukraine is going to run out of time. We can make excuses for them all day long but the fact they did not get any results from their big offensive probably sealed their fates. They can hope that public dissatisfaction in Russia with the war leads to some kind of political shakeup but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. Russia can keep throwing more meat into the grinder for another couple of years and Ukraine will be done when Western money dries up.

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Russia doesn't have the ability to mount an offensive and meatgrinder strategies don't work in 2024. This thing will largely freeze along current lines.

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A freeze along current lines is a loss for Ukraine. At some point the US and Western Allies are no longer going to send $100 billion a year to continue to fund Ukraines war. As soon as that money dries up their ability to continue the fight is going to come to an end. Hopefully they can keep the borders at the 2014 but it is looking like they won't be able to drive the Russians out of occupied territory

bonfarr said:

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Teslag said:

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bonfarr said:

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Ukraine is going to run out of time. We can make excuses for them all day long but the fact they did not get any results from their big offensive probably sealed their fates. They can hope that public dissatisfaction in Russia with the war leads to some kind of political shakeup but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. Russia can keep throwing more meat into the grinder for another couple of years and Ukraine will be done when Western money dries up.

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Russia doesn't have the ability to mount an offensive and meatgrinder strategies don't work in 2024. This thing will largely freeze along current lines.

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A freeze along current lines is a loss for Ukraine. At some point the US and Western Allies are no longer going to send $100 billion a year to continue to fund Ukraines war. As soon as that money dries up their ability to continue the fight is going to come to an end. Hopefully they can keep the borders at the 2014 but it is looking like they won't be able to drive the Russians out of occupied territory

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Maybe it's tin foil hat thinking, but I honestly think Russia believed they were going to lose the war and needed Muslim terrorists attacking Israel, Iraq, and international shipping to have a chance. And it's probably going to work.

It is a loss based on their current stated objective which is to push Russia out of all occupied territory including Crimea.

bonfarr said:

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It is a loss based on their current stated objective which is to push Russia out of all occupied territory including Crimea.

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Well of course, but that was never realistic. There will eventually be a push to tie our aid to permanent defensive positions and a permanent NATO presence.

And at that time lasting peace will persist in that area.

Teslag said:

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Quote:

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A freeze along current lines is a loss for Ukraine.

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Completely disagree with that. In February of 2022 the general consensus was that all of Ukraine would fall within weeks if not days. At best they'd be left as a puppet like Belarus and worst just another Russian state. If you had told anyone that Ukraine would survive with Kiev, Odessa, Kherson, Kharkiv, etc AND regain almost 60% of what Russia initially took in the spring of 2022 they would have thought you were crazy.

Ukraine existing is a victory for Ukrainians.

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Compared to the first week of the war, it's a huge win.

Compared to boundaries before the war it's a big loss. Big portions of the east in Russian control is a large portion of the O&G, mining resources, and best agricultural area. Not to mention, they lost the buffer to Odessa / shipping.

bonfarr said:

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It is a loss based on their current stated objective which is to push Russia out of all occupied territory including Crimea.

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It seems to me Russia wanted ALL of Ukraine. Is this really a win for them since they may well have created multiple new NATO members on their actual border now?

Russia is definitely losing big unless you have some propaganda driven perspective. They've lost a ton of their modern weaponry, been exposed as a paper tiger, lost their black sea flagship, lost a significant number of their best officers and NCO's, far weaker militarily, lost their most effective PMC and leader, and take a huge hit to their economy (unless you buy into some laughable BRICS narrative).

Theyd' never admit it, but if they could go back to February of 2022 they'd never cross into Ukraine.

Teslag said:

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Russia is definitely losing big unless you have some propaganda driven perspective. They've lost a ton of their modern weaponry, been exposed as a paper tiger, lost their black sea flagship, lost a significant number of their best officers and NCO's, far weaker militarily, lost their most effective PMC and leader, and take a huge hit to their economy (unless you buy into some laughable BRICS narrative).

Theyd' never admit it, but if they could go back to February of 2022 they'd never cross into Ukraine.

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My post was poorly worded. I'm calling it a win for Ukraine in the context that it still exists independently from Moscow and Putin. It will take a long time for Russia's military to recover.

74OA said:

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Russia is an international pariah state, with its economy slowly being strangled by sanctions. Millions of skilled young Russians have fled abroad, with hundreds of thousands more young Russians killed and maimed. Russian army is steadily being gutted, resorting to pulling Cold War equipment out of storage and begging Iran and NK for munitions. NATO is enlarged and swiftly rearming. EU has cut almost all of its 258B Euro annual trade with Russia. Ukraine is still free, defiant and now hating Russia like the devil himself, with EU and NATO membership on the horizon.

Tell me again about that Russian victory..........

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It will be a victory for NATO and the West no doubt. Russia emerges weakened and exposed.

For Ukraine there are no moral victories. They will have spent hundreds of billions in Western cash and materials and end up with less than they had prior to the invasion.

To be sure, but something is better than nothing.

MouthBQ98 said:

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To be sure, but something is better than nothing.

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For now. History says a stagnation of lines will allow Russia to fortify, refit, redraft and do this all again in a couple of years because they've learned NATO wants no part of a direct conflict.

bonfarr said:

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74OA said:

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Russia is an international pariah state, with its economy slowly being strangled by sanctions. Millions of skilled young Russians have fled abroad, with hundreds of thousands more young Russians killed and maimed. Russian army is steadily being gutted, resorting to pulling Cold War equipment out of storage and begging Iran and NK for munitions. NATO is enlarged and swiftly rearming. EU has cut almost all of its 258B Euro annual trade with Russia. Ukraine is still free, defiant and now hating Russia like the devil himself, with EU and NATO membership on the horizon.

Tell me again about that Russian victory..........

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It will be a victory for NATO and the West no doubt. Russia emerges weakened and exposed.

For Ukraine there are no moral victories. They will have spent hundreds of billions in Western cash and materials and end up with less than they had prior to the invasion.

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Remaining independent of Russia is far more than a mere moral victory.

Ukraine may well not regain all of its lost territory, but if the forecast EU and NATO membership materializes it will become wealthier and more secure than it was before.

Meanwhile, the wartime damage to Russia's economy, military and demographics will accelerate its already steady downward slide towards joining the Third World.

AgLA06 said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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To be sure, but something is better than nothing.

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For now. History says a stagnation of lines will allow Russia to fortify, refit, redraft and do this all again in a couple of years because they've learned NATO wants no part of a direct conflict.

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That's why there has to be some type of NATO presence once they stop.

Otherwise, you're right. This is just going to happen again in a few years.