3:1 or better is what they need for defensive action. But to maintain 3:1 or better while advancing into prepared defenses is almost miraculous. For an advancing force into prepared defenses, I would be expecting 1:2 or 1:3.lb3 said:
I've mostly been spooked by the casualty ratio only being 3:1 so far in the war and Ukraine's troubles in recruiting new soldiers and reports that they don't have the manpower to deploy some of the western weapon systems they have received.
That 3:1 casualty ratio is unsustainable for Ukraine. They need to maintain a high casualty rate and be doing better than twice that ratio if this is going to be a pure war of attrition.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Both sides still have plenty of manpower. That's really not the issue. The issue is munitions and weapons systems for tasks and the ability to use artillery and conduct offensive operations with mobility.
The battlefield, as it has become fortified of the Russians side, has become difficult to change in those fortified areas. Russia takes huge losses attacking, and Ukraine can't attack aggressively in most places because it can't afford the losses that might initially require.
In an attritional war, Russia does have the advantage that it can more easily hold what it has taken. Without substantially more support, Ukraine can't attack weak areas in the defense such as with a marine or airborne operation.
I think the result is this becomes a battle of political wills, and how long each side is willing to tolerate the attritional war before they opt to negotiate.
The battlefield, as it has become fortified of the Russians side, has become difficult to change in those fortified areas. Russia takes huge losses attacking, and Ukraine can't attack aggressively in most places because it can't afford the losses that might initially require.
In an attritional war, Russia does have the advantage that it can more easily hold what it has taken. Without substantially more support, Ukraine can't attack weak areas in the defense such as with a marine or airborne operation.
I think the result is this becomes a battle of political wills, and how long each side is willing to tolerate the attritional war before they opt to negotiate.
There is a good Ukrainian film on Paramount + right now called Sniper:White Raven. A hippie schoolteacher and his pregnant wife live off the grid in rural Donbas region when the Russians send in special forces to take Crimea and Donbas and his wife is killed. The teacher joins up with some independent Uke fighters and is trained to become a sniper and gets revenge on the Orcs.
.... or just have a big UAP reveal and half the world will go hara-kiri.Joes said:
Hell, I'm all for giving them some strategic nukes just to get this over with. You guys are going to end up spending your whole lives on this thread at this rate.
Nortex's post reminds me: wasn't it said that Ukraine lacks effective electronic warfare tech? A lot of drones sent into Russia are supposedly stopped via those means. I need to do more research on this later, but I wonder if that is the answer to the deadly Lancet threat.
I wonder how much the Russians have left in the tank in regards to armor and artillery. They've been forced to put a lot of their 60s tanks that are still functional in as makeshift artillery. That's not only expensive but not particularly effective. Another year of strikes is going to whittle down their force. It will be very difficult to break through all these defensive lines, but a disruption in logistics due to a domestically produced cruise missile, which they are clearly trying to develop and lets be honest is difficult to produce but not THAT difficult for a country their size with the wealth of programming, engineering and munitions experience they have. Maybe you'll get there. I don't know that the Ukes will be able to get back Maruipol but I wouldn't settle for less than 2014 borders without giving it everything I had or could get.
Yep, or that.benchmark said:.... or just have a big UAP reveal and half the world will go hara-kiri.Joes said:
Hell, I'm all for giving them some strategic nukes just to get this over with. You guys are going to end up spending your whole lives on this thread at this rate.
Russia and Ukraine are almost like two prize fighters in the 14th round of a championship fight.aezmvp said:
I wonder how much the Russians have left in the tank in regards to armor and artillery. They've been forced to put a lot of their 60s tanks that are still functional in as makeshift artillery. That's not only expensive but not particularly effective. Another year of strikes is going to whittle down their force. It will be very difficult to break through all these defensive lines, but a disruption in logistics due to a domestically produced cruise missile, which they are clearly trying to develop and lets be honest is difficult to produce but not THAT difficult for a country their size with the wealth of programming, engineering and munitions experience they have. Maybe you'll get there. I don't know that the Ukes will be able to get back Maruipol but I wouldn't settle for less than 2014 borders without giving it everything I had or could get.
Both are in the middle of the ring just as when they started but both running out of gas.
HunterAggie
The Elko Era has begun
The Elko Era has begun
Need to give Ukraine weapons without limitations attached. If a Uke pilot wants to make an F16 suicide run to Moscow then so be it.
Thats why the Lancets now have fully autonomous target selection and engagement. The Russians no longer require radio links making them immune to most electronic warfare.Waffledynamics said:
Nortex's post reminds me: wasn't it said that Ukraine lacks effective electronic warfare tech? A lot of drones sent into Russia are supposedly stopped via those means. I need to do more research on this later, but I wonder if that is the answer to the deadly Lancet threat.
Repost as it addresses the winter war issues being discussed. This winter's fight will not what we've seen before because, unlike elsewhere in Ukraine, the front in the south is largely flat, open terrain, particularly when the trees bordering the extensive agricultural fields shed their foliage. But it's about more than just the arrival of snow and ice. Ukraine has some new advantages, including the innovative use of AI.
TREELINES
TREELINES
Well...lb3 said:Thats why the Lancets now have fully autonomous target selection and engagement. The Russians no longer require radio links making them immune to most electronic warfare.Waffledynamics said:
Nortex's post reminds me: wasn't it said that Ukraine lacks effective electronic warfare tech? A lot of drones sent into Russia are supposedly stopped via those means. I need to do more research on this later, but I wonder if that is the answer to the deadly Lancet threat.
Not necessarily. C-UAS does have ways to deal with aircraft that are not using C2.
Today's SITREP.
Quote:
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 40 Shahed drones and 1 Kh-59 missile
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/3-november-ukrainian-air-defense-shot-down-24-of-40-shahed
Not many. If you have the means to target them for electronic disruption you have the targeting data to shoot them down. But a swarm is very difficult to bring down, period, whether some sort of directed energy weapon/EMV pulse or a kinetic shot. And persistent airborne UAS is also not practical vs. infrequent drone swarms over a large front.Ag with kids said:Well...lb3 said:Thats why the Lancets now have fully autonomous target selection and engagement. The Russians no longer require radio links making them immune to most electronic warfare.Waffledynamics said:
Nortex's post reminds me: wasn't it said that Ukraine lacks effective electronic warfare tech? A lot of drones sent into Russia are supposedly stopped via those means. I need to do more research on this later, but I wonder if that is the answer to the deadly Lancet threat.
Not necessarily. C-UAS does have ways to deal with aircraft that are not using C2.
The only real counter is to concentrate forces within/beneath a hardened/concentrated C-UAS network of defenses but that again makes everyone on the ground very vulnerable to artillery/airstrikes anyway, and the UFA is not exactly bristling with an abundance of interceptors/assets etc. right now, nor are these easy to quickly procure/deploy effectively.
Separately; new commanders:
The change can be connected to Ukrainian unsuccessful offensive in the south. In a recent article of Time Magazine, Ukrainian President Zelensky mentioned that one minister, and senior general in charge of the counteroffensive needs to be fired.https://t.co/NQTyzIkYNM
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) November 3, 2023
Unbelievable.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023
The Battle of Avdiivka documented by Ukraine's 47th Mechanized. pic.twitter.com/BgGslMzEEj
That's the best tank destruction video yet. I'm pretty sure that was two crew members getting blasted out at the end on the last tank. Brutal but well deserved. I hope the Ukranians can keep it up. Certainly the drones have a lot more punch than at the start of the conflict.
Dude just joined the Airborne Division. He is a smoking hot streak coming out of that tin can they call an APV.docb said:
That's the best tank destruction video yet. I'm pretty sure that was two crew members getting blasted out at the end on the last tank. Brutal but well deserved. I hope the Ukranians can keep it up. Certainly the drones have a lot more punch than at the start of the conflict.
This may be a really stupid question or idea, but does anyone think they should try some kind of a net that could be fired towards an advancing swarm of drones? Something that would tangle and foul up their rotors, bringing them down far enough away to prevent them from causing damage.
I'm not talking about a thick fishnet, maybe even just something thin like fishing line with some weights attached.
I'm not talking about a thick fishnet, maybe even just something thin like fishing line with some weights attached.
That last video was some T-72 variants and some Bmp3 which look like tanks from a distance due to their dual 100mm and 30mm gun armament. The hull is boxier and turret is proportionally smaller, and if your fire the 30mm you will see rapid muzzle flashes near the end of the main gun armament.
Note when it exploded it exploded catastrophically as it is lighter built and comes apart completely instead of the classic T-tank turret launch.
Several good Russian Army space program launches in that one. I feel bad for the poor saps getting pushed into a pointless suicide by their paranoid delusional leadership.
Note when it exploded it exploded catastrophically as it is lighter built and comes apart completely instead of the classic T-tank turret launch.
Several good Russian Army space program launches in that one. I feel bad for the poor saps getting pushed into a pointless suicide by their paranoid delusional leadership.
A significant portion of the latest aid package is set aside for laser based counter UAV weapons. $300MM worth. What that gets exactly not sure yet as models were not listed but very interested in seeing where this goes. Probably the next paradigm shift on the defense side and battlefield data will be crucial to sculpting out our inventory for the new future. The government shotgunned funding all over on this subject and lots of prototypes have been built.
As callous as it sounds you can't really put a price on the real world testing of new technologies like this. I remember the headaches of IED jammers when those were first being pushed out. So many variants. Some useless, others less so. Took time and casualties to get them dialed in. The Ukes, unfortunately for them and fortunately for us, will be paying the lions share of that dial in time. Just the objective view of it.
ETA: Ah. Most of this was covered in the link above mine it looks like.
As callous as it sounds you can't really put a price on the real world testing of new technologies like this. I remember the headaches of IED jammers when those were first being pushed out. So many variants. Some useless, others less so. Took time and casualties to get them dialed in. The Ukes, unfortunately for them and fortunately for us, will be paying the lions share of that dial in time. Just the objective view of it.
ETA: Ah. Most of this was covered in the link above mine it looks like.
Ex-USMC assault breacher vehicles suddenly show up unannounced in Ukraine and other updates.
Today's SITREP.
Today's SITREP.
In yesterday's speech, President Zelensky stated that he has ordered a reshuffle in the command structure of the Armed Forces. However, until General Syrski, widely disrespected within the army, is replaced, substantial improvements are unlikely.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
General Syrski's leadership is… pic.twitter.com/Ch54wXFHQz
Quote:
General Syrski's leadership is bankrupt, his presence or orders coming from his name are demoralizing, and he undermines trust in the command in general. His relentless pursuit of tactical gains constantly depletes our valuable human resources, resulting in tactical advances such as capturing tree lines or small villages, with no operational goals in mind. This approach creates a never-ending cycle of fruitless assaults that drain personnel. His failure to withdraw troops from Bakhmut in a timely manner earlier this year, coupled with his obsession to retake it, by utilizing Wagner Group's tactics, further depletes our resources and has more far-reaching consequences than people might realize.
Yes. Hard to expect anything else from Moscow Academy graduate
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 4, 2023
/2. More detailed video of attack on Kerch. pic.twitter.com/9M7qebzNX1
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 4, 2023
Quick analysis of the Kerch attack and the air defenses the cruise missiles had to contend with.
— Radio & Nukes 🇺🇦 (@HamWa07) November 4, 2023
Not at home to make a pretty map so this will have to do. Red pin = geolocation of attack, blue circled points = S-400 TELs / 92N6 radars, Yellow circle is the large Kerch radar… https://t.co/8Ogm9irLYY pic.twitter.com/plNxRAUmBE
Ukes possibly took out multiple S-400 systems in the last week.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 02 November 2023.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 2, 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/M81EEqaamH
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/2rCvub7o8d
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/05/ukrainian-missile-strike-on-shipyard-in-crimea-damages-russian-ship-00125408
Another (arguably) more reliable source for the damaged russian vessel
Another (arguably) more reliable source for the damaged russian vessel
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Damaged, yes, destroyed, no…
"Counter offensive" judgment:Quote:
Oleshchuk said cruise missiles struck the infrastructure at Zalyv which is now named BE Butoma "where one of the most modern Russian Navy ships was stationed, a Kalibr cruise missile carrier". He said he was "awaiting official confirmation of the results".
Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed governor of Crimea, said air defence systems had been in action around a Kerch shipyard named after BE
"Fragments of downed missiles fell onto territory of one of the dry docks," Aksyonov said in a Telegram post. "There were no casualties."
Meanwhile, Russian news agencies cited the Russian Ministry of Defence confirming that Ukraine hit a shipyard in Kerch with 15 cruise missiles, damaging one ship. It added that air defence systems destroyed 13 of the Ukraine-launched missiles.
The Reuters and AFP news agencies said it was not possible to verify the Russian and Ukrainian statements, nor social media posts including videos of missile activity as well as fire and smoke that the posts said was rising from the same location the Ukrainian military mentioned.
Quote:
Has Ukraine's counteroffensive against the Russian invasion been successful?
That depends on the criteria of how you measure success.
Paul Poast, associate professor at the University of Chicago, has an interesting threat on X (formerly Twitter) exploring this question.
Poast argues that Ukraine's counteroffensive was "a tactical fail, a strategic draw, [and] a political win".
...and compared it to a map from late October, you would have a difficult time finding a noticeable difference.https://t.co/AjAHF79de0 pic.twitter.com/k07Ld0pWfT
— Paul Poast (@ProfPaulPoast) November 5, 2023
Despite the lack of territorial gains, was the counteroffensive a failure?
— Paul Poast (@ProfPaulPoast) November 5, 2023
It depends on how you evaluate it:
- Tactically: yes, it failed.
- Strategically: it was a draw.
- Politically: it worked (though there are now other issues).
Quote:
Zelenskiy's office rebukes top military commander for saying war at 'stalemate', saying it helped Russia and stirred 'panic'
A rift has emerged in Ukraine's leadership, the New York Times is reporting, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office on Saturday chastising Ukraine's top military commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Gen Zaluzhnyi said in the Economist that the war was at a stalemate with Zelenskiy's office saying the comments could help Russia.
More from the Times here:Quote:
It was a striking public rebuke that signaled an emerging rift between the military and civilian leadership at an already challenging time for Ukraine.
Speaking on national television, a deputy head of the office of the president, Ihor Zhovkva, said Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi's assertion that the fight against Russia was deadlocked "eases the work of the aggressor," adding that the comments stirred "panic" among Ukraine's Western allies.
At the same time, Mr. Zelensky disputed the general's characterization of the fighting. "Time has passed, people are tired, regardless of their status, and this is understandable," he said at a news conference on Saturday, adding: "But this is not a stalemate, I emphasize this once again."
The public censure of General Zaluzhnyi came a day after the president's office replaced one of his deputies, the head of special operations forces, who after his firing said he had been blindsided by the dismissal. It was unclear whether General Zaluzhnyi, the overall commander of Ukraine's forces, knew in advance of the planned dismissal.
The emerging fissure between the general and the president comes as Ukraine is struggling in its war effort, militarily and diplomatically. Its operations along the roughly 600-mile-long trench line have failed to produce any advances, while resulting in high casualties on both sides, and Ukraine is facing intensified Russian attacks in the East.
At the same time, skepticism about Ukraine aid has increased in some European capitals and among members of the Republican Party in the United States.
Does this mean F16s will be arriving sooner than later?Not a Bot said:
Ukes possibly took out multiple S-400 systems in the last week.Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 02 November 2023.
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) November 2, 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/M81EEqaamH
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/2rCvub7o8d
No those are a huge Trump card and their first role will be as SEAD. Anything you can do to hurt Russian AD before that SEAD mission starts will only help. I'm sure Russia right now is looking at where the Ukes can and will house those planes and those places will be a very high priority for their cruise missiles.
If you can create enough gaps then the 16s will be able to attack naval and logistics targets and things get very dicey quick. 500 or more mile range in a naval or ground attack role opens a lot of areas to attack especially in the Black Sea.
If you can create enough gaps then the 16s will be able to attack naval and logistics targets and things get very dicey quick. 500 or more mile range in a naval or ground attack role opens a lot of areas to attack especially in the Black Sea.
How can anyone argue that it is anything but a stalemate. The lines have changed little in 6 months.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
bonfarr said:
How can anyone argue that it is anything but a stalemate. The lines have changed little in 6 months.
Well a couple of things. First the losses Russia has sustained are asymmetric and not really sustainable for them. Second, many wars and conflicts enter a period of stagnation for months or years before something changes (not stalemate).
But again that's besides the point. Russia doesn't want to negotiate, so for Ukraine there's fight or give up. It's either try to recover your lost territory or accept genocide. So whether you think it's a stalemate or not is irrelevant. If we gave them the help we are capable of, would it be a "stalemate"?
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