***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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7:34p, 9/23/23
Rollup: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1705567813103206479.html

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Rossticus
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7:55p, 9/23/23
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Counterpoint
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11:13p, 9/23/23
AG
Is the acronym ATACMS pronounced "attack 'ums"?
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txags92
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In reply to Counterpoint • 11:15p, 9/23/23
AG
Counterpoint said:
Is the acronym ATACMS pronounced "attack 'ums"?
Either that or "attack ems".
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Rossticus
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1:01a, 9/24/23


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Counterpoint
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In reply to txags92 • 6:35a, 9/24/23
AG
txags92 said:
Counterpoint said:
Is the acronym ATACMS pronounced "attack 'ums"?
Either that or "attack ems".

Thanks! I've only read it, never actually heard it said out loud.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to Not a Bot • 10:05a, 9/24/23
AG
Not a Bot said:

But, the Russians said only one missile hit that target????
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74OA
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11:12a, 9/24/23
AG
Excellent review of the current Ukrainian offensive breakthrough near Verbove in the south.

BRUTAL

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74OA
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5:32p, 9/24/23
AG
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Gordo14
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9:48p, 9/24/23


ISW on potential Russian issues
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Rossticus
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In reply to Gordo14 • 10:53p, 9/24/23
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Rossticus
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10:56p, 9/24/23
"Asymmetric Attrition Gradient" just has a sort of musical quality to it.







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Marvin
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:36a, 9/25/23
AG
Is there a TLDR version of that in English?
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txags92
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In reply to Marvin • 12:46a, 9/25/23
AG
Russia…as usual…isn't doing a good job of using their weapons and personnel to best effect. Instead of using their layered defenses to fall back strategically and make Ukraine pay dearly for any ground they gain, the orcs are staging localized counter attacks with some of their best forces and getting them chewed up. They are also reinforcing bad positions with forces that are getting hammered by uke artillery, instead of falling back when they should.

The end result is that instead of using their prepared defenses to cause lopsided casualty numbers for Ukraine, the russians are losing more troops and equipment than the Ukrainians due to poor tactics (as usual)
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Gradaggie05
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In reply to Marvin • 1:49a, 9/25/23
AG
"…likely compounding the asymmetric attrition gradient."

"What's a flank?"

Marvin said:
Is there a TLDR version of that in English?
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nortex97
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4:42a, 9/25/23
AG
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benchmark
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:16a, 9/25/23
AG
nortex97 said:
Armchair Warlord: This would mean the Russians made a comparable advance in 48 hours to the five-month Ukrainian slog to Klescheevka.
$10 says this is total BS.
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benchmark
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7:27a, 9/25/23
AG
Quadcopters can sometimes be a hard act to follow ....

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benchmark
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7:41a, 9/25/23
AG
Not official but now being reported by Ukrainian military sources ...

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aezmvp
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7:59a, 9/25/23
This is one of the biggest things that worries me in a conflict with China is our CP systems tend to be pretty build out and therefore easier to decapitate against peer or near peer militaries. I hope the Pentagon is paying attention.
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Waffledynamics
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8:02a, 9/25/23
AG
Quote:
President Zelensky: Abrams tanks are already in Ukraine


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/25-september-president-zelensky-abrams-tanks-are-already
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Waffledynamics
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8:03a, 9/25/23
AG
Quote:
Heavy explosions were reported at the ammunition depot in Sorokyne of Luhansk region


https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/25-september-heavy-explosions-were-reported-at-the-ammunition
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Gilligan
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In reply to txags92 • 8:54a, 9/25/23
AG
txags92 said:
Russia…as usual…isn't doing a good job of using their weapons and personnel to best effect. Instead of using their layered defenses to fall back strategically and make Ukraine pay dearly for any ground they gain, the orcs are staging localized counter attacks with some of their best forces and getting them chewed up. They are also reinforcing bad positions with forces that are getting hammered by uke artillery, instead of falling back when they should.

The end result is that instead of using their prepared defenses to cause lopsided casualty numbers for Ukraine, the russians are losing more troops and equipment than the Ukrainians due to poor tactics (as usual)
Shhh.... Don't give the RuZZians any ideas.

Like said many times over, Thank God they're so f'n stupid!
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aunuwyn08
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In reply to benchmark • 10:39a, 9/25/23
AG
Even if it's true it is irrelevant.

Russians are dug in with prepared defenses counterattacking hard at any attempt to penetrate the entire line of defense.

Ukraine has 3 LOE where two have smaller forces attempting only to fix Russian reserves to their positions of the line with sporadic attacks and probing attempts while they attrit Russian forces at a single strategic point.

Ukraine is more than willing to trade land in non strategic locations to attrit Russian forces.
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aunuwyn08
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In reply to Gilligan • 10:43a, 9/25/23
AG
Gilligan said:
txags92 said:
Russia…as usual…isn't doing a good job of using their weapons and personnel to best effect. Instead of using their layered defenses to fall back strategically and make Ukraine pay dearly for any ground they gain, the orcs are staging localized counter attacks with some of their best forces and getting them chewed up. They are also reinforcing bad positions with forces that are getting hammered by uke artillery, instead of falling back when they should.

The end result is that instead of using their prepared defenses to cause lopsided casualty numbers for Ukraine, the russians are losing more troops and equipment than the Ukrainians due to poor tactics (as usual)
Shhh.... Don't give the RuZZians any ideas.

Like said many times over, Thank God they're so f'n stupid!
If you read the whole report it isn't based on stupidity - their military actions are working to accommodate domestic political goals for each of the relevant players on the scene. It is a well documented phenomenon that autocracies and anocracies perform at lower rates than democratic nations during conflict because - unlike democracies - non-democratic states are pursuing lateral interests simultaneously to directed military objectives.
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bonfarr
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In reply to Gradaggie05 • 10:48a, 9/25/23
AG
Gradaggie05 said:
"…likely compounding the asymmetric attrition gradient."

"What's a flank?"

Marvin said:
Is there a TLDR version of that in English?



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Rossticus
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11:06a, 9/25/23
A whole lot of "ifs" here but it gives some context as to why some Russian sources are starting to express concern.







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P.U.T.U
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11:37a, 9/25/23
AG
Almost seems the stalemate in the east may be to keep Russia from deploying troops in the south which have much more strategic value. Cut off the supply lines to Mariupol and Melitopol while you keep hitting the Kerch bridge and you have Crimea cut off.

Ukraine using more of militia based territory control makes you question what their true plans are.
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bonfarr
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12:07p, 9/25/23
AG
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?
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AgLA06
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In reply to bonfarr • 12:10p, 9/25/23
AG
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?


Ukes aren't Russia. They pull tired / chewed up units off the line to the rear and refit / train. Including previously trained units by the west.
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bonfarr
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:19p, 9/25/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?


Ukes aren't Russia. They pull tired / chewed up units off the line to the rear and refit / train. Including previously trained units by the west.


They will still need to replace the men killed or wounded that are no longer in the fight. Do they have any ability to replace the men they are losing?
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74OA
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In reply to bonfarr • 12:32p, 9/25/23
AG
bonfarr said:
AgLA06 said:
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?


Ukes aren't Russia. They pull tired / chewed up units off the line to the rear and refit / train. Including previously trained units by the west.


They will still need to replace the men killed or wounded that are no longer in the fight. Do they have any ability to replace the men they are losing?
At the start of the war, Ukraine had ~11M males aged 15 to 53. If we assume fully half of those are not available for service (e.g. age, death, injury, infirmity, key civilian job, fled, etc.) that would still leave a male manpower pool of ~5.5M to draw from. Ukraine has tapped but a fraction of that number and it doesn't even include the millions of willing females. Raw manpower is unlikely to be a critical issue for Ukraine's military.
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bonfarr
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12:57p, 9/25/23
AG
I just looked up an article and 200k Ukrainian boys turn 18 by end of 2023.
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AgLA06
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In reply to bonfarr • 1:01p, 9/25/23
AG
bonfarr said:
AgLA06 said:
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?


Ukes aren't Russia. They pull tired / chewed up units off the line to the rear and refit / train. Including previously trained units by the west.


They will still need to replace the men killed or wounded that are no longer in the fight. Do they have any ability to replace the men they are losing?
Do you have something that says they don't? Because all the stats have been listed by others and they've posted a lot of training and refit videos of just this in the last month on social media. It leads me to believe they're about to be able to rotate fresh units in again. And they'll be battle tested.
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bonfarr
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:03p, 9/25/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
bonfarr said:
AgLA06 said:
bonfarr said:
Has anyone seen any data on the number of men Ukraine can potentially conscript and train to build their forces? I believe they have already committed their reserves that spent 6 months training with Western forces. With the war over a year old there should be a new generation of men turning military age that may have been too young to join the fighting at the outbreak of the war.

If Russia conscripts another 200k men as they appear to be doing how will Ukraine rebuild their Army in sufficient numbers to continue the fight?


Ukes aren't Russia. They pull tired / chewed up units off the line to the rear and refit / train. Including previously trained units by the west.


They will still need to replace the men killed or wounded that are no longer in the fight. Do they have any ability to replace the men they are losing?
Do you have something that says they don't? Because all the stats have been listed by others and they've posted a lot of training and refit videos of just this in the last month on social media. It leads me to believe they're about to be able to rotate fresh units in again. And they'll be battle tested.


No that's why I am asking.

Some of you guys have such a chip on your shoulders when anyone poses any question about Ukraines ability to fight. Good lord.
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