Increasing reports that ATACMS has been released and other miscellaneous notes.

UPDATES

JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Pretty good video footage of recent Uke attack on Russkie Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol

some major damage

Ukes Strike Again

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Admiral Viktor Solokov, Supreme Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet KIA in that strike.

He was probably about to fall off a balcony anyway.

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pretty sure the last time the USA lost a General or Admiral in combat was World War II

Russkies have lost close to a dozen Colonels, Generals and Admirals in 18 months.

LMCane said:

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pretty sure the last time the USA lost a General or Admiral in combat was World War II

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He died at his desk with a building falling on him.

And makes it easy to quietly send more later.

74OA said:

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Reports now leaking out that US will provide 30 ATACMS maneuvering ballistic missiles and Germany will provide 100 Taurus cruise missiles in two batches.

If verified, the token number of ATACMS should be viewed in the same light as the equally token offer of 30 Abrams, in that both are diplomatic moves to give Scholz the political cover he needs to provide comparable German weapons.

In the meantime, it's still RUMINT.

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Didn't Germany already pledge these weeks ago? In that case it would be Schulz pressuring biden.

Aside the CMs, whats your 30 ATACAM targets?

For me:
4 EA to mainspan of Kerch bridge while train is on it. Leave the vehicle bridge alone so everyone driving past the destroyed RR bridge gets the MSG.
10 EA major bridges rail or road supporting the Dombass area.
8 EA crimea bases targeting ships or aircraft.
8 EA ToO

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Pretty good video footage of recent Uke attack on Russkie Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol

some major damage

Ukes Strike Again

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Admiral Viktor Solokov, Supreme Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet KIA in that strike.

He was probably about to fall off a balcony anyway.

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pretty sure the last time the USA lost a General or Admiral in combat was World War II

Russkies have lost close to a dozen Colonels, Generals and Admirals in 18 months.

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There was this Texas Aggie named Bruno Hochmuth but you probably wouldn't have heard of him.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_Hochmuth

JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Pretty good video footage of recent Uke attack on Russkie Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol

some major damage

Ukes Strike Again

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Admiral Viktor Solokov, Supreme Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet KIA in that strike.

He was probably about to fall off a balcony anyway.

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Source?

GAC06 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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LMCane said:

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Pretty good video footage of recent Uke attack on Russkie Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol

some major damage

Ukes Strike Again

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Admiral Viktor Solokov, Supreme Commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet KIA in that strike.

He was probably about to fall off a balcony anyway.

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Source?

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UNCONFIRMED

Good robot.

Publicly demonstrates the complete ineffectiveness of Russian air defenses. Can't blame this one on Ivan smoking too close to the ammunition pile or on a successful surface-to-air intercept with the resulatnt debris causing the damage.

Gilligan said:

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By my estimation Ukes are 8 to 10 miles from Tokmak from two different directions.

That's a loooong way with all the defenses and fortifications in place.

I keep hoping for some kind of off ramp for Poot'n. I don't know what it could be, but I'm hopeful that the Ukes can take Tokmak before winter and have fire control over the M14 and all the way to the coast.

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Speaking of winter...

The ukes cannot stop this offensive for winter. They have to keep the pressure up and cannot allow the Russians a chance to build another layered line of defensive positions.

Maybe it's too great a risk as you might stretch your forces too thin or might be unable to adequately supply them, but, I think Ukraine is going to be pushing the limit on western gratitude if they were pause and try to resume in the spring against a refreshed Russian defense.

Never mind. It's a bird

B-1 83 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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Non watermarked/clearer pic.twitter.com/vR2RbQLe1F

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

Slowed down and zoomed-in footage of the Ukrainian Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCM slamming into (and through) the roof of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters. pic.twitter.com/c8mas1OzAg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

Broad daylight.

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The Ukes wanted people there.

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Yep. Office hours.

74OA said:

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Reports now leaking out that US will provide 30 ATACMS maneuvering ballistic missiles and Germany will provide 100 Taurus cruise missiles in two batches.

If verified, the token number of ATACMS should be viewed in the same light as the equally token offer of 30 Abrams, in that both are diplomatic moves to give Scholz the political cover he needs to provide comparable German weapons.

In the meantime, it's still RUMINT.

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UPDATE

GAC06 said:

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Work from hell?

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Do we have any idea how many Russians have left Crimea? Seems a bunch should be packing bags about now.

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Ukraine destroys the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea. The peninsula is steadily becoming untenable as a secure Russian rear area.

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This is the way. Putting Sevastopol and Kerch at risk changes the calculus for everything.

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It's going to make it diffyq for them.

benchmark said:

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74OA said:

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Ukraine destroys the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea. The peninsular is steadily becoming untenable as a secure Russian rear area.

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This is the way. Puting Sevastopol and Kurch at risk changes the calculas for everything.

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With those long range missles there is really no reason Russia should hang around, they can bomb them once a week for the next 20years .. that port will turn into rubble in 6 months if they keep bombing it. Ivan can't even take a dump at work now and not worry about a cruise missile knocking him off the toilet and turning his arse into dust particles

Probable smokescreen based on recent activityhttps://t.co/zDjtdsCzVr

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 23, 2023

Of course. I was marveling at the planning.