***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:39a, 9/21/23
Yeah, the original post of them simply saying they weren't transferring any war material to Ukraine any further made me think they were either out of transferable items or got new intelligence with some credible threats....

But, dudas comments are much stronger. The metaphor henused of savi g a drowning person is very clear. They don't won't to be brought down together with Ukraine. So either, he is simply talking politics before an election, or has made a calculation that Ukraine cannot win this conflict and now Poland must further protect themselves from a future unknown neighbor.
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AgLA06
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9:49a, 9/21/23
AG
This is all political posturing over grain. Neither side is in the wrong, but it's going to take negotiations to put it to bed.

Ukraine has to ship grain by land through Poland, Hungary, and Slivakia because of the sea blockade. Those countries don't want commodity pricing of grain to plummet if Ukraine doesn't have a home for it beyond them.

They'll work it out.
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CS78
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In reply to Eliminatus • 10:17a, 9/21/23
Eliminatus said:
Also, per Newsweek, (lost the link on my phone sorry) the deputy commander of the Northern Fleet submarine forces was killed in that Azerbaijan incident the other day. His vehicle was ambushed and he died of gunshot wounds.

Just thought that was interesting. Not every day a very high ranking submarine officer dies in a shootout in the mountains.


I bet the CIA is balls deep in that.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-azerbaijan-nato-nagorno-karabakh-1828768
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AgLA06
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In reply to CS78 • 11:11a, 9/21/23
AG
CS78 said:
Eliminatus said:
Also, per Newsweek, (lost the link on my phone sorry) the deputy commander of the Northern Fleet submarine forces was killed in that Azerbaijan incident the other day. His vehicle was ambushed and he died of gunshot wounds.

Just thought that was interesting. Not every day a very high ranking submarine officer dies in a shootout in the mountains.


I bet the CIA is balls deep in that.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-azerbaijan-nato-nagorno-karabakh-1828768



Maybe. To be fair Russia has no real friends right now. Not even among their island of misfit toy allies.
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74OA
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12:56p, 9/21/23
AG
The continuing hesitancy on ATACMS is baffling. Who is it that's advising the president to say no?

MISSILES
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SouthTex99
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In reply to 74OA • 1:10p, 9/21/23
AG
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74OA
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1:12p, 9/21/23
AG
Ukraine strikes Crimea airbase, Russia returns to attacking energy infrastructure and other notes from the front.

UPDATES
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MouthBQ98
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1:24p, 9/21/23
AG
Poop or get off the toilet. Either help them absolutely hammer Russia to the extent that they collapse on some front and reach a point where they sue for peace not to lose completely, or tell Ukraine that's all we got and they must live with negotiating away some territory. Dragging this out needlessly is surely only going to make the political class more wealthy. Russia can't keep this up forever, but Ukraine can't either and NATO doesn't want to beyond curtailing the Russian threat for another generation.
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74OA
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5:29p, 9/21/23
AG
"In what the Institute for the The Institute for the Study of War calls a "significant inflection," Ukrainian mechanized forces have for the first time breached Russia's main line of anti-tank ditches and dragon's teeth obstacles near the village of Verbove in Zaporizhzhia Oblast."

Today's SITREP.
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Gordo14
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8:05p, 9/21/23


Good thread about Russian attrition. Whether you use oryx data or this guy's data, Russia is clearly losing 4+x what Ukraine is losing. It's especially bad for Russia in artillery and tanks.
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Gilligan
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In reply to Eliminatus • 8:20p, 9/21/23
AG
Eliminatus said:
Also, per Newsweek, (lost the link on my phone sorry) the deputy commander of the Northern Fleet submarine forces was killed in that Azerbaijan incident the other day. His vehicle was ambushed and he died of gunshot wounds.

Just thought that was interesting. Not every day a very high ranking submarine officer dies in a shootout in the mountains.
Makes you wonder where they get their intel...
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CS78
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In reply to Gordo14 • 8:27p, 9/21/23
Do we know what their ability to replace artillery is?
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Central Committee
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8:59p, 9/21/23
AG
Proof positive that maintaining air superiority in combat is critical.
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AgLA06
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In reply to CS78 • 10:06p, 9/21/23
AG
CS78 said:
Do we know what their ability to replace artillery is?

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aggiehawg
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:09p, 9/21/23
AG
So is that a manpower at the factories or a materials issue or both?
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AgLA06
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:14p, 9/21/23
AG
It's a there losing a metric crap ton of artillery and armor that Ukraine is purposefully attriting and can't make enough to keep status quo.

I don't know why personally. That's why I posted someone else's take.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:25p, 9/21/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
It's a there losing a metric crap ton of artillery and armor that Ukraine is purposefully attriting and can't make enough to keep status quo.

I don't know why personally. That's why I posted someone else's take.
Ah. So it's like Patton noting the ruts and adducing that the Germans are using horse drawn carriages instead of mechanized. Running out of equipment type of thing.

Thanks.
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Rossticus
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11:33p, 9/21/23
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Rossticus
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11:38p, 9/21/23
Rollup:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1704761529235583230.html

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Rossticus
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11:39p, 9/21/23
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Rossticus
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12:03a, 9/22/23


Top GOP Armed Services Senator blasts White House for not sending 190-mile-range ballistic missiles to Ukraine:

"Does the Biden administration want Ukraine to win, or not?" [Sen. Roger] Wicker said. "Every delay in supplying Ukraine with the tools it needs to secure victory has cost unnecessary lives and prolonged the war. Instead of leading from the front, the President held back for months after Britain and France provided deep-strike missiles. This is yet another example of the dangerous drip-drip-drip approach by the Biden administration, which has failed to give Ukraine a bigger advantage.

"I also call on the Biden administration to send Congress a supplemental request immediately to increase industrial production on the ATACMS and Precision Strike Missile lines. The President must understand that only through sufficient Ukrainian military capacity and capability will this war come to a successful conclusion."
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:20a, 9/22/23
AG

"Geolocated footage posted on September 21 indicates that Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced south of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon's teeth obstacles that are part of a tri-layered defense and engaged in limited combat immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv). It is unclear if Ukrainian forces retain these positions, however. This is the first observed instance of Ukrainian forces operating armored vehicles beyond the Russian tri-layer defense."

For clarity, it is the tri-layer defense of the first/primary Russian defensive line that has been penetrated, not a penetration of all three Russian defensive lines, right?

ISW
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Gilligan
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7:03a, 9/22/23
AG
By my estimation Ukes are 8 to 10 miles from Tokmak from two different directions.

That's a loooong way with all the defenses and fortifications in place.

I keep hoping for some kind of off ramp for Poot'n. I don't know what it could be, but I'm hopeful that the Ukes can take Tokmak before winter and have fire control over the M14 and all the way to the coast.
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benchmark
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In reply to Gilligan • 7:54a, 9/22/23
AG
Gilligan said:
I keep hoping for some kind of off ramp for Poot'n. I don't know what it could be, but I'm hopeful that the Ukes can take Tokmak before winter and have fire control over the M14 and all the way to the coast.
Unfortunately, we'll likely have to wait until after our 2024 election for any hope of a settlement. Putin knows time is on his side if he can tred water for another 13 months.
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LMCane
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In reply to 74OA • 8:21a, 9/22/23
74OA said:

"Geolocated footage posted on September 21 indicates that Ukrainian armored vehicles advanced south of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon's teeth obstacles that are part of a tri-layered defense and engaged in limited combat immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv). It is unclear if Ukrainian forces retain these positions, however. This is the first observed instance of Ukrainian forces operating armored vehicles beyond the Russian tri-layer defense."

For clarity, it is the tri-layer defense of the first/primary Russian defensive line that has been penetrated, not a penetration of all three Russian defensive lines, right?

ISW
in the Verbove section the Ukes penetrated at least two layers of the Surovikin line with another two major ones to break through
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LMCane
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8:23a, 9/22/23
Pretty good video footage of recent Uke attack on Russkie Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol

some major damage

Ukes Strike Again
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Gilligan • 9:58a, 9/22/23
AG
Yes, long way, but if the Russians keep losing artillery and armor at the rate they are and have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for more infantry, they'll lose the ability to resist continuous attacks. If Ukraine can cut to the south another 10-15 miles, they have effectively all the supply routes to Crimea and the western Russian incursion under fire threat and cut off from supply.
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LMCane
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 10:01a, 9/22/23
MouthBQ98 said:
Yes, long way, but if the Russians keep losing artillery and armor at the rate they are and have to scrape the bottom of the barrel for more infantry, they'll lose the ability to resist continuous attacks. If Ukraine can cut to the south another 10-15 miles, they have effectively all the supply routes to Crimea and the western Russian incursion under fire threat and cut off from supply.

we better hope the Marder and the Leopard and the Challenger and the Abrams can drive in the snow...
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docb
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10:26a, 9/22/23
AG
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876
Can't wait to see how they put them to use
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to LMCane • 10:28a, 9/22/23
AG
They were designed for Western Europe. They can do fine in winter. It is that 6 weeks of deep muck that is the problem.
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P.U.T.U
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10:30a, 9/22/23
AG
That is the issue, the West keep supplying Ukraine with just enough to keep the slow progress going and once winter hits this will give Russia time to reinforce their lines. Like most wars this is becoming one of attrition.

Going into an election year nothing will likely change until after everyone finds out who is the new president. Some of the candidates are against the war and could a full stop on the major supplies and funding from the USA. The next few weeks are big for Ukraine since as mentioned if they get a little closer they can hit all supply lines
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bonfarr
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In reply to benchmark • 11:35a, 9/22/23
AG
benchmark said:
Gilligan said:
I keep hoping for some kind of off ramp for Poot'n. I don't know what it could be, but I'm hopeful that the Ukes can take Tokmak before winter and have fire control over the M14 and all the way to the coast.
Unfortunately, we'll likely have to wait until after our 2024 election for any hope of a settlement. Putin knows time is on his side if he can tred water for another 13 months.



I hear all of the talk about the attrition battle Ukraine is fighting wearing down the Russian artillery and equipment and fighting forces and get that but do not agree that time is on their side. IMO they will need to show more progress in their offensive soon if they don't want the wheels to fall off the support wagon in the US Congress. I can't imagine we will spend another $75 Billion in support just to reduce Russia's stockpile of artillery pieces, armor, etc when the lines barely move.

If Russia is about to conscript another 200k men to throw into the meat grinder the Ukes time is running out and the calls to cull the support are going to get louder and louder.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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74OA
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11:41a, 9/22/23
AG
Ukraine destroys the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea. The peninsular is steadily becoming untenable as a secure Russian rear area.

STRIKE
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 11:55a, 9/22/23
AG
P.U.T.U said:
That is the issue, the West keep supplying Ukraine with just enough to keep the slow progress going and once winter hits this will give Russia time to reinforce their lines. Like most wars this is becoming one of attrition.

Going into an election year nothing will likely change until after everyone finds out who is the new president. Some of the candidates are against the war and could a full stop on the major supplies and funding from the USA. The next few weeks are big for Ukraine since as mentioned if they get a little closer they can hit all supply lines
Now there is a report ATACMS are approved. WTF!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-atacms-biden-zelenskyy-long-range-missile-rcna116876

Still no news on GLSDBs which were supposedly approved back in March and contracted for production with delivery in the fall of 2023. I think these are a better fit anyway at least in costs and limiting range if thats what USA is trying to accomplish. Just need to see them in action. Will be a huge plus when combined with cruise missiles on combined strikes.
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lb3
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:39p, 9/22/23
AG
Team Biden needs Ukraine to show significant progress come election season or serious negotiations need to be underway.

To make this tactics related, to me, regardless of the path chosen, that means introducing Tomahawaks with their 1600km range into the battle field. This will either deliver a knockout blow by attacking Russia's strategic military industrial base and driving all their bombers to Vladivostok, or adopting Russia's 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy to encourage negotiations.
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