***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,739,069 Views | 48153 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by aggiehawg
PJYoung
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74OA said:

The Neptune was in testing when Russia invaded and is now in service.

"With restrictions imposed on the use of donated weapons against targets outside its borders, Ukraine is developing its own long-range strike weapons, one of which appears to have already been used on Crimea, which is fair game even for systems provided by foreign donors.

On Aug. 23, Kyiv used a modified Neptune anti-ship cruise missile to hit a Russian S-400air defense system on the western most part of the occupied peninsula, a Ukrainian defense official told The War Zone. There are plans, the official added, to eventually strike Moscow and other targets inside Russia - precluded for use by donated weapons - with land attack variants of the Neptune."

MISSILE
ABATTBQ11
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Gilligan said:

FYI - bad or outdated link in your previous post


They work for me...
GAC06
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PJYoung said:




The high intercept rate of GMLRS continues. Interesting technique here to intercept this one with the air defense asset itself, but special military operations drive innovation.
ABATTBQ11
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Takes "intercept at all costs" to a whole new level. Good thing they intercepted it before it hit something vital.
bonfarr
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My question mark about the F-16 is whether the Uke pilots can survive the AA missile defenses. Do they have wild weasel type aircraft that can kill radars before the F-16s are deployed in an attack? Without that type of radar suppression I would guess they would keep them over friendly lines as air defense and not so much the ground attack role.

Maybe they will have successfully destroyed enough SAM equipment by the time the F-16s are deployed that it will be moot.
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
Teslag
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I think these are purely for defense and CAS
nortex97
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bonfarr said:

My question mark about the F-16 is whether the Uke pilots can survive the AA missile defenses. Do they have wild weasel type aircraft that can kill radars before the F-16s are deployed in an attack? Without that type of radar suppression I would guess they would keep them over friendly lines as air defense and not so much the ground attack role.

Maybe they will have successfully destroyed enough SAM equipment by the time the F-16s are deployed that it will be moot.
Nothing I have seen has indicated they will be anything but air defense/superiority type missions. Ukraine has platforms larger that can sling missiles already. These are 20-30 year old (MLU) frames without the 'latest' block 80 etc. upgrades/AESA radars. The APG-68's can track (up to) 2 only.

The challenge, as linked up thread a ways, is the maintenance/logistics training and support. The F-16 was designed in the mid-70's, and these are basically the mid-80's versions.
GAC06
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F-16's likely won't be going toe to toe with Russian fighters, or doing deep strikes into Russia. They'll be good for defending against cruise missiles, and forcing Russia to defend against the threat they'll pose. They'll be capable of changing the Black Sea situation drastically with the right weapons. Also they'll be better suited to use JDAM and HARM we have already provided that Soviet jets can't fully integrate and use to their potential. Also with the right weapons provided they'll take the burden off their dwindling fleet of fencers for strikes. Instead of Stormshadow/scalp coming 2-4 at a time, they can be sending dozens of JASSM or JSOW potentially.
PJYoung
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Whoa.





PJYoung
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ABATTBQ11
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We've already given Ukraine AGM-88 HARMs, so... maybe?
nortex97
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That's conceivable. It's challenging though against their better air defenses (S400 etc).



sclaff
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That is next to the Estonian border. Impressive.
Rossticus
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What Russian AD doing?
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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ABATTBQ11
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nortex97 said:

That's conceivable. It's challenging though against their better air defenses (S400 etc).






Those "better" air defenses have taken a beating lately. That vaunted S400 couldn't stop a missile strike against it. The supposedly great S300 couldn't stop a GMLRS strike on it. Plus the fact Ukraine has been able to send kamikaze drones deep within Russia.

Maybe... just maybe... those "better" air defenses are not all they're cracked up to be.
CondensedFogAggie
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ABATTBQ11 said:


It is a cesspool, and pretty much everyone there speaks with the authority of someone too stupid to know they're an idiot.

Those are some beautiful english words strung together.
Gordo14
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The great Russian air defense
nortex97
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ABATTBQ11 said:

nortex97 said:

That's conceivable. It's challenging though against their better air defenses (S400 etc).






Those "better" air defenses have taken a beating lately. That vaunted S400 couldn't stop a missile strike against it. The supposedly great S300 couldn't stop a GMLRS strike on it. Plus the fact Ukraine has been able to send kamikaze drones deep within Russia.

Maybe... just maybe... those "better" air defenses are not all they're cracked up to be.
Drone warfare is definitely advancing in practice and with operational experience via this conflict/war.

As I stated above a few days ago, Himars/GMLRS are definitely effective weapons, as well.

Both sides have logarithmically more drones than they did 12 months ago I believe.



It would appear this is fairly accurate:

Quote:

The intention seems to have been to force a breach in the Russian line using a concentrated armored assault by the 47th and 65th Brigades, after which a follow on force of the 116th, 117th, and 118th would begin the exploitation phase, driving for the Azov Coast and the towns of Mikhailivka and Vesele to the west. The objective was clearly not to get bogged down in urban fighting attempting to capture places like Tokmak, Berdyansk, or Melitopol, but to bypass them and cut them off by taking up blocking positions on the main roads.

Simultaneously, a lesser - but no less critical - thrust would come out of the Gulyaipole area and drive along the Bilmak axis. This would have the effect of both screening the main advance to the west and wedging the Russian front open, splintering the integrity of the Russian forces caught in the middle. Overall, this is a fairly sensible, if ambitious and uncreative plan. In many ways, this was really the only option.

So what went wrong? Well, conceptually it's easy. There is no breach. The bulk of the maneuver scheme is dedicated to exploitation - reaching such and such a line, taking up this blocking position, masking that city, and so forth. But what happens when there's no breach at all? How can such a catastrophe occur, and how can the operation be salvaged when it comes untracked in the opening phase?

Indeed, this is precisely what has happened. Ukraine finds itself stuck on the edge of Russia's outermost screening line, spending substantial resources trying to capture the small village of Robotyne, and/or bypass it to the east by infiltrating the gap between it and the neighboring village of Verbove. So instead of that rapid breach and turning maneuver towards Melitopol, we get something like this:



We could be generous and say that Robotyne is the last village before the Ukrainian attack reaches the main Russian defensive belt, but we'd be lying - they will also have to clear the larger town of Novoprokopivka, two kilometers to the south. Just for reference, here's a closer look at the mapped Russian defenses in the battlespace, based on the excellent work of Brady Africk.
I know some may object to the source/information, but where does this go?

Waffledynamics
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Rossticus said:

What Russian AD doing?
Is someone else in Defmon's Discord?
Waffledynamics
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74OA
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New satellite imagery confirms a Ukrainian claim that Russia is sinking vessels along the Kerch Bridge to form a protective barrier against future USV attacks.

BLOCK SHIPS
PJYoung
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2wealfth Man
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PJYoung said:


no fuel = no flying for any remaining aircraft
10thYrSr
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2wealfth Man said:

PJYoung said:


no fuel = no flying for any remaining aircraft


I'm wondering what the target area looked like. To destroy that many planes and possibly storage tanks, there had to be a large number of drones or assets parked too close to tanks.
10thYrSr
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After looking at the Pskov Airport on Google maps, it's pretty easy to see how 5 planes were destroyed by one or two drones. They are all parked fairly close together.
10thYrSr
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https://ibb.co/SnFfpZH



The refueling complex appears to be in the western part of the image. Those planes nearest the complex look like they could be IL-76s, but I'm no aviation nerd.
10thYrSr
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Apparently it was 20 drones.

Gilligan
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Rossticus said:

What Russian AD doing?


Not much by the looks of it!
2wealfth Man
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can we get back on topic and away from Carlson / Orban et al
txags92
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Please take this whole argument where it belongs and stop derailing this thread like you do every night.

https://texags.com/forums/15
sclaff
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More detailed report


Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
The largest drone attack on the russian territory. The damages include: the premises of one of the GRU (The Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) brigades, military cargo planes in Pskov as well as the largest enterprise manufacturing microelectronics for Iskanders in Bryansk.

What we know:

Pskov. At about 11:40 p.m. (Moscow time) on Aug. 29, a series of explosions was heard in the area of Pskov airport. Reports say the airfield was attacked by 20 drones. Russian media says the shots could be heared in the course of the night single and bursts.

The anti-terrorist plan Edelweiss was put into action in the city. The law enforcement units are operating in the high alert mode carrying assault weapons.

The Pskov international airport is the joint purpose airfield. It's under jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense. It hosts the 334th air force regiment.
TASS reports the strike damaged 4 cargo IL-76. Two of them caught fire. After the strike 3 to 5 cargo planes were "moved" from the airfield.
According to the satellite images IL-76 aircrafts were parked one close to another and without the shelters. Therefore, the damages in equipment might be higher.

The governor of the Pskov region claims no casualties as the result of the attacks. The airport is shut down till Thursday.

Also, according to the info from Pskovskaya Gubernia resource, the 64044 military base is on fire. It's home to the 2nd brigade of the GRU special forces.

The distance between Ukraine and Pskov is 700 km across Belarus.

Bryansk was also under the drone attack. The governor reports 3 drones being shot down, no casualties.
There are reports of fire started at the Kremniy EL enterprise. It is the largest manufacturer of microelectronics in russia. 94% of its products in 2017 went to satisfy the needs of the Ministry of Defense.
The plant supplies Almaz-Antey, the Airspace equipment, Sozvezdie and Vega manufacturers. It produces parts for Pantsyr anti-aircraft systems and for Iskander missile complexes.

Other regions:
The Kover [Carpet] plan was put in motion in Moscow city, in Tula and Ryazan regions. In Oryol region, 2 UAVs were shot down, according to the governor. Also, the Ministry of Defense was reported shooting down one drone in Kaluga region.
Overall, the Ministry of Defense has reported it halted the attacks everywhere, but kept silence about the assault on Pskov.
USAFAg
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None of this Tucker, Hungarian, Christian nation crap has any relationship to a tactical assessment thread. None of it. Take your BS to another thread and argue.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian ministry of Defense claims Russian aviation destroyed 4 Ukrainian fast boats in Black Sea at about midnight
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/30-august-russian-ministry-of-defense-claims-russian-aviation
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