Gilligan said:

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74OA said:

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More on France officially sending SCALP cruise missiles. Will supplement the limited availability of the UK's Storm Shadow missiles.

Today's SITREP.

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Domestic configuration is 350 miles. Export configuration is 155 miles. Why keep tying the Ukes hands behind their backs?

It's frustrating!

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You realized there's a reason for that right?

Agree, but we don't know for sure yet which version is being sent. I'll be surprised if it isn't the export model and there's good reasons for that.

Yes, it's certainly been said often enough by any number of US and international leaders.

Russia has good reason to be unhappy at Sweden joining NATO.

BALTIC

Ulysses90 said:

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PJYoung said:

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agent-maroon said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Rzhitsky’s Krasnodar submarine fired Kalibr cruise missiles against Ukraine’s Vinnytsia on July 14, 2022, when at least 27 people died, including three minors. pic.twitter.com/7KsTKYfWYC

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 10, 2023

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Quote:

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Baza writes that person who killed Stanislav Rzhitsky, deputy head of mobilization for Krasnodar, could have tracked his movements using a jogging app.

According to the channel, Rzhitsky used Strava, a popular running app, regularly posting reports about his runs. Baza also specifies that he almost always ran along the same route.

"Thus, the killer had no difficulty choosing a convenient spot for the massacre," writes Baza.

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https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/07/11/killed-former-submarine-commander-in-krasnodar-could-have-been-tracked-by-running-app

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Unbelievable

A Russian submarine commander was assassinated on his run yesterday

He was posting his workouts on Strava!

One of the people who liked the posts, was the Chief of Intelligence of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/pbOYjBquP2

— Iman Jalali (@Stealx) July 11, 2023

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Mossad:

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Worth watching. Scroll past the ad. Rather than physically overrunning it, I still think much of what Ukraine needs to accomplish against Russian logistics can be done by getting the sole east-west rail LOC into HIMARS range.

Appreciate the multiple clarifications.

I have to wonder what's stopping Ukraine from using shell companies to buy a small container ship, sail it from a neutral port to somewhere in the Sea of Azov with a load of ammonium nitrate or other explosives, and then blow it under the kerch bridge to cut Russian logistics. Or, buy a cheap, used ice breaker, spoof its transponder to call it a cargo ship, and remotely run it full speed into the lower bridge decks.

"Russia's economy dealt a crushing blow as its current-account surplus collapses by 93%."

Can someone spell out the practical impact of this, please?

CRASH

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I have to wonder what's stopping Ukraine from using shell companies to buy a small container ship, sail it from a neutral port to somewhere in the Sea of Azov with a load of ammonium nitrate or other explosives, and then blow it under the kerch bridge to cut Russian logistics. Or, buy a cheap, used ice breaker, spoof its transponder to call it a cargo ship, and remotely run it full speed into the lower bridge decks.

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Well, a ship-borne attack is a fairly obvious ploy and I'd imagine Russian security in the sea approaches to such a key LOC is very tight?

From your article:

Quote:

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"The decline in the surplus of the balance of the external trade in goods in January June 2023 compared to the comparable period of 2022 was caused by a decrease in both the physical volumes of export deliveries and the deterioration in the price situation for the basic Russian export commodities, energy commodities made the most significant contribution to the decline in the value of exports," the Bank of Russia said.

Moscow's key source of revenue is through sales of its oil and gas products, but price caps and bans imposed on Russia's energy exports by a pool of nations following its unprecedented attack on Ukraine, have meant its commodities business has taken a huge hit.

In June, Russia's Finance Ministry revealed that revenue from oil and gas taxes fell 36% compared to a year ago to about 570.7 billion rubles, while profits from crude and petroleum products tumbled 31% to 425.7 billion rubles.

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Yes, that explains why it crashed but not the resultant impact on Russian finances.

How does a "current account surplus" crash impact day-to-day governmental operations?

74OA said:

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Yes, that explains why it crashed but not the resultant impact on Russian finances.

How does a "current account surplus" crash impact day-to-day governmental operations?

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My really basic 2 cents: Current account surplus essentially means you're a net exporter. Generally, that's a good thing as it means more money coming in than going out. I don't think the impact is immediate, but over time it means Russia's foreign currency reserves will start to dwindle. Eventually, they could run out of reserves such that they have to borrow money to pay some of the bills. That may not be a particularly big deal if people want to lend money to you. Its quickly a bigger deal if people don't want to lend money to you.

74OA said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I have to wonder what's stopping Ukraine from using shell companies to buy a small container ship, sail it from a neutral port to somewhere in the Sea of Azov with a load of ammonium nitrate or other explosives, and then blow it under the kerch bridge to cut Russian logistics. Or, buy a cheap, used ice breaker, spoof its transponder to call it a cargo ship, and remotely run it full speed into the lower bridge decks.

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Well, a ship-borne attack is a fairly obvious ploy and I'd imagine Russian security in the sea approaches to such a key LOC is very tight?

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That's why you make it look like any other ship transiting through. Use a shell company to buy a ship or a company that already owns one. Use another to create a shipping contract from a neutral port to somewhere in the Sea of Azov along with others afterwards. Go through all the official channels and make it look as real as you need to. The only thing fake would be the cargo or the name on the side. I mean who's really expecting the world's biggest VBIED in a 300'+ ocean going vessel or an 8 figure battering ram?

Thanks.

74OA said:

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Yes, it's certainly been said often enough by any number of US and international leaders.

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Fully understand the position that the UK, France, US has on long range weapons, but I'd like to see an end to this war and all the death and destruction. Long range weapons would hopefully shorten this war.

Kerch bridge / rail lines, etc…

Interesting thread about American training of the Ukrainians, from a Ukrainian perspective:

🧵 Thread about training in Germany. Part 2

🔉 So, I was in a reconnaissance platoon, we're trained by American Rangers. The program was aimed specifically at reconnaissance. There're three main instructors, these kind of enforcers. All three of them were equally square. https://t.co/5SLRVYGSo5

— Voices of the Army 🇺🇦🔊 (@SmartUACat) July 12, 2023

Unrolled thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679223826398212096.html

Sounds like a lot of hurry up and wait

The Ukrainian bridgehead on the Russian side of the Dnipro River still holds.

Today's SITREP.

☑️Ukraine will get F16s after the pilot training is complete, likely from EU countries.
☑️ATACAMS are still being discussed.@JakeSullivan46 at @GMA

Great news. pic.twitter.com/WhoLd1z5KC

— ✙🍒 Constantine 🍒✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) July 13, 2023

Agthatbuilds said:

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Sounds like a lot of hurry up and wait

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Sounds like we wasted their time

Waffledynamics said:

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Interesting thread about American training of the Ukrainians, from a Ukrainian perspective:

🧵 Thread about training in Germany. Part 2

🔉 So, I was in a reconnaissance platoon, we're trained by American Rangers. The program was aimed specifically at reconnaissance. There're three main instructors, these kind of enforcers. All three of them were equally square. https://t.co/5SLRVYGSo5

— Voices of the Army 🇺🇦🔊 (@SmartUACat) July 12, 2023

Unrolled thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679223826398212096.html

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Maybe these Ukrainians were talking about the 2021 TEXAS Rangers teaching them.

Gilligan said:

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74OA said:

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Yes, it's certainly been said often enough by any number of US and international leaders.

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Fully understand the position that the UK, France, US has on long range weapons, but I'd like to see an end to this war and all the death and destruction. Long range weapons would hopefully shorten this war.

Kerch bridge / rail lines, etc…

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UNLESS the Ukes want to keep the Kerch bridge standing up..

so that all the Russkies in Crimea can run back across it into Russia.

Mutinous Wagner mercenary group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely either dead or jailed, and his much-publicized meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin after his botched rebellion was probably faked, according to a former senior US military leader.

Retired Gen. Robert Abrams, an ABC News contributor who previously served as the commander of US Forces Korea, shared his thoughts on Prigozhin's uncertain fate in the aftermath of the Wagner Group's short-lived armed insurrection last month.

"My personal assessment is that I doubt we'll see Prigozhin ever again publicly," Abrams told ABC News. "I think he'll either be put in hiding, or sent to prison, or dealt with some other way, but I doubt we'll ever see him again."

whatever Ukraine is doing- keep it up!

Russian general dismissed after accusing top brass of failing soldiers


The general said he raised the "mass death and injury" of Russian soldiers from Ukrainian artillery.
By REUTERS Published: JULY 13, 2023 07:45

A Russian general said he had been dismissed as a commander after telling the military leadership about the dire situation at the front in Ukraine where he said Russian soldiers had been stabbed in the back by the failings of the top military brass.

Major General Ivan Popov, who commanded the 58th Combined Arms Army, which was involved in fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region, said in a voice message published by Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov on Telegram that he had been dismissed.

There was no immediate comment from the defense ministry and Reuters was unable to verify the authenticity of the voice message. Lawmaker Gurulyov is a hardline former army commander who regularly appears on state television.

"There was a tough situation with the senior bosses in which it was necessary either to keep quiet and be a coward or to say it the way it is," Popov said.

"I had no right to lie in the name of you, in the name of my fallen comrades in arms, so I outlined all the problems which exist."

From ISW yesterday evening.

Quote:

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Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly fired Commander of the 58th CAA Major General Ivan Popov after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives.[30] A source reportedly affiliated with the Russian security services claimed that Popov notified Gerasimov that elements of the 58th CAA which are attempting to prevent Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast are in need of rotation after fighting in combat for a long time and suffering significant casualties.[31] Gerasimov reportedly accused Popov of alarmism and blackmailing the Russian military command. The source added that Gerasimov dismissed Popov and sent him to forward positions after Popov threatened to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin with his complaint. Another Russian source who appears to be in contact with Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast stated that his sources confirmed Popov's dismissal after he raised a "real" question about the lack of rotations in Polohy Raion on the Orikhiv frontline.[32] These reports, if true, may support ISW's previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle.[33]

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benchmark said:

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From ISW yesterday evening.

Quote:

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Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly fired Commander of the 58th CAA Major General Ivan Popov after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives.[30] A source reportedly affiliated with the Russian security services claimed that Popov notified Gerasimov that elements of the 58th CAA which are attempting to prevent Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast are in need of rotation after fighting in combat for a long time and suffering significant casualties.[31] Gerasimov reportedly accused Popov of alarmism and blackmailing the Russian military command. The source added that Gerasimov dismissed Popov and sent him to forward positions after Popov threatened to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin with his complaint. Another Russian source who appears to be in contact with Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast stated that his sources confirmed Popov's dismissal after he raised a "real" question about the lack of rotations in Polohy Raion on the Orikhiv frontline.[32] These reports, if true, may support ISW's previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle.[33]

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may be time to see a few Leopards heading south from Zaporizhe

This is a heat map of geolocated videos for June.

📍 Теплова мапа геолокованих відео нашою командою за червень. Всього 977 локацій pic.twitter.com/3vDMGZp7ex

— DeepState UA (@Deepstate_UA) July 13, 2023

LMCane said:

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may be time to see a few Leopards heading south from Zaporizhe

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It's now day 35 since the counteroffensive started June 8th. The Desert Storm air war lasted 43 days. So, maybe 90-100 days for the Ukes to attrit everything within range as they claw forward ... with a possible breakout in September?

LMCane said:

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whatever Ukraine is doing- keep it up!

Russian general dismissed after accusing top brass of failing soldiers


The general said he raised the "mass death and injury" of Russian soldiers from Ukrainian artillery.
By REUTERS Published: JULY 13, 2023 07:45

A Russian general said he had been dismissed as a commander after telling the military leadership about the dire situation at the front in Ukraine where he said Russian soldiers had been stabbed in the back by the failings of the top military brass.

Major General Ivan Popov, who commanded the 58th Combined Arms Army, which was involved in fighting in the Zaporizhzhia region, said in a voice message published by Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov on Telegram that he had been dismissed.

There was no immediate comment from the defense ministry and Reuters was unable to verify the authenticity of the voice message. Lawmaker Gurulyov is a hardline former army commander who regularly appears on state television.

"There was a tough situation with the senior bosses in which it was necessary either to keep quiet and be a coward or to say it the way it is," Popov said.

"I had no right to lie in the name of you, in the name of my fallen comrades in arms, so I outlined all the problems which exist."

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You know things are going south when.