JFABNRGR said:

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GAC06 said:

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Black Sea fleet only has diesel subs assigned

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Isn't that supposed to change once construction at the other location is complete?

Baydar Valley or Mys Balaklavs Kyy which is further south.

Do you think the loss of one or more of their diesel subs would run them out of there or what do you think it would take to render Crimea to risky to use by orc navy?

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As long as they're at war, they can't bring anything new into the Black Sea unless they build it there or do it over land. Turkey controls the Bosphorus Straight, and by treaty they will only allow naval vessels out.

If Russia loses any major naval vessel, they'll GTFO and find a place to stay out of range. When they lost the Moskva, they basically pulled back their surface fleet and penned them up in port. Same with being attacked by naval drones. They don't want to risk losing high value, high profile assets again.

USA*** said:

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bonfarr said:

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Did any details emerge about how Wagner was able to shoot down the Il-22 Command aircraft? I assume they are similar to our AWACS aircraft and wouldn't be flying close enough to the enemy to be brought down by manpads or mobile SAM units.

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That bird was probably more like our old ABCCC, rather than AWACS. The E-3, with it's radar can standoff over 200 miles. The ABCCC needed to be pretty close to the action in order to make sure it had radio contact with both the air and ground assets with was C2ing.

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I think it's more like an AWACS. This was their most up to date version and shot down near Voronezh, about 100 miles from the nearest section of Ukrainian border and really about 150-200 miles from what they'd likely be C2ing in Ukraine.

Wagner supposedly shot it down with a Pantsir. They were probably close enough because they were friendlies almost right up until the point they fired and fairly deep in Russian territory.

Teslag said:

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I'm as anti Russian as anyone, but I just don't see a realist scenario where Ukraine retakes Crimea

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I question your imagination.

Russia lost Crimea in 1991 (among other assets) due to internal government collapse caused by stress of (among other things) an external war in Afghanistan.

You don't think Putin (or whomever) would pull out of UKR, blame it on someone else, to save his job?

• The West continues to increase the lethality of the weapons / materials it is willing to provide
• Russia is showing signs of cracks under the stress. I doubt this war will last the 10 years of the Soviet-Afghan War.

Ukraines army is better equipped, better trained, multiples larger. And it only gets more so every day.

Doesn't sound like a success for demiliterization.

It's more likely western countries are begging Ukraine not to push into Russia than for Russia to step foot in Kiev.

"In Soviet Russia, we demilitarize you by demilitarizing ourselves."

But seriously, if Russia wants to demilitarize a country, getting all their **** blown up isn't a very good way to do it. They've lost sizeable fractions of just about everything they have. 20+% of certain top of the line helicopter platforms, an AWACS, a C2 plane, 20% of their tank inventory and God knows how much of their armor overall, a cruiser, more than a handful of SAM and radar platforms, dozens of 4th gen fighter and attack aircraft, etc.

On top of that, they've lost top of the line, completely intact EW and radar systems that have been shipped here for evaluation and testing. That's a massive intelligence boon for us and a huge loss for them.

If this was their plan all along, they're cutting off their **** to spite their ***.

Agthatbuilds said:

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AgLA06 said:

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nortex97 said:

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There are some common misconceptions about the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war that I feel the need to clarify.

Namely what Russia’s objectives are and how this affects their military behavior and strategy.

This war is not just about taking land, it’s about complete demilitarization of the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/RHsmzR7Y0r

— Clandestine (@WarClandestine) July 3, 2023

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That is some high level Russian propaganda there. No way to even try to lie it's anything else.

6D chess to deplete Ukraine by losing every piece of equipment, trained soldier, and land while the world laughs.

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Yeah, nothing about that assessment makes any sense.

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Well that depends on your "perspective"

The mercenary boss also claimed that his short-lived insurrection was aimed at "fighting traitors and mobilizing (Russian) society."

"And I think that we have succeeded in much of these," added Prigozhin.https://t.co/2N6yOxoibH

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 3, 2023

Love it.

pic.twitter.com/LyFUJ4L9zk

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) July 3, 2023

Quote:

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Russian Ka-52 helicopter was shot down on Berdyansk direction

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/3-july-russian-ka52-helicopter-was-shot-down-on-berdyansk

Reported 13 hours ago but I missed it in my rushed workday before the holiday. Need to see more of these taken out of action one way or another.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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USA*** said:

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bonfarr said:

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Did any details emerge about how Wagner was able to shoot down the Il-22 Command aircraft? I assume they are similar to our AWACS aircraft and wouldn't be flying close enough to the enemy to be brought down by manpads or mobile SAM units.

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That bird was probably more like our old ABCCC, rather than AWACS. The E-3, with it's radar can standoff over 200 miles. The ABCCC needed to be pretty close to the action in order to make sure it had radio contact with both the air and ground assets with was C2ing.

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I think it's more like an AWACS. This was their most up to date version and shot down near Voronezh, about 100 miles from the nearest section of Ukrainian border and really about 150-200 miles from what they'd likely be C2ing in Ukraine.

Wagner supposedly shot it down with a Pantsir. They were probably close enough because they were friendlies almost right up until the point they fired and fairly deep in Russian territory.

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Not at all. It was an Ilyushin Il-22M Coot, propeller driven, aerial command post and radio-relay plane probably conducting the same type mission as our ABCCC against the advancing Wagner Group. It was probably working the the attack choppers and aircraft that were shot down as well. Their AWACS platform is a jet powered IL-76 Mainstay.

I get it's not an AWACS. I mean I don't think it needs to be that close. Certainly not close enough for a Pantsir to hit it

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I get it's not an AWACS. I mean I don't think it needs to be that close. Certainly not close enough for a Pantsir to hit it

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<shrug> They probably didn't need to be that close, but they screwed up and got within range (11mi). Either they didn't know they had that system up front of the column, or they really didn't know exactly where the column was as they were advancing pretty quickly.

ABCCC and JSTARS operate pretty close to the FEBA, usually about 40 klicks or so. That's with a known FLOT to orient to. An advancing column makes orienting more difficult especially when the Russians really didn't have a defined FEBA or FLOT.

The Russians have shown a pretty high level of ineptitude in this war.....

Microbiologists, damnit!

Agronomists grow good things! Staff, feel free to delete.

Ulysses90 said:

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Teslag said:

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Seriously. The idea that Russia's grand plan was to invade from the east and north then get their ass kicked, lose loads of soldiers and front line equipment, lose most of what they gained, all in some genius plot to take out nato weapons is so ridiculous I think even Putin would roll his eyes

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And don't forget the Ukrainian biolabs. The proof can't be denied because of the photographs of rooms filled with test tubes, refrigerators, and petri dishes. The Russians' top objective was to neutralize the labs and de-nazify the Ukrainian agronomists about whom they made all the angry speeches at the UN.

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LOL

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct highly effective done-spotted HIMARS counterbattery fire on Russian artillery units, seen here destroying 4x Bm-21 Grad, 1x 2A65 Msta-B SPH and associated tow vehicle, and 1x 2S7 Pion SPC. pic.twitter.com/M8jGpWxwhd

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 4, 2023

Anyone recall this from almost 2 mos ago?

Forbes: A Ukrainian Patriot Missile Crew Shot Down Five Russian Aircraft In Two Minutes - And Possibly Forced The Kremlin To Rethink Its Tactics

Quote:

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On May 13, a Russian air force strike package took off at bases in western Russia and flew toward the border with Ukraine.

Minutes later, a single Ukrainian air force Patriot surface-to-air missile battery shot down at least four, and possibly five, of the fighters and helicopters in the package.

Eleven aviators died over Bryansk Oblast in what was one of the worst single-day losses for the Russian air force in the nearly 17 months of its wider war on Ukraine.

A video that the Ukrainian air force published on July 3 hints at some of the details of the missile ambush. For starters, the Patriot crew believes it shot down five Russian aircraft that day, not the four that Russian media have confirmed.

The strike package included, at a minimum, a Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber, a Sukhoi Su-35 fighter and two Mil Mi-8 helicopters, at least one of which reportedly was an Mi-8MTPR-1 model carrying Rychag-AV radar-jamming equipment. It's possible the other Mi-8 was a dedicated search-and-rescue helicopter.

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I do. Wagner shot down more of those EW Mi-8 variants as well. 2-3 IIRC

PJYoung said:

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Like @secretsqrl123 said, pay attention to Russian boots🔽...

...and the lack of Russian barbed wire. Modern Armies with functional logistics and training establishments have both.

Russia has neither. https://t.co/ss68Lr8VJU pic.twitter.com/iBBaODkJ99

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) July 3, 2023

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It has been very strange NOT to see massive layers of barbed wire along the front lines, at least in front of the forested defensive trenches.

According to state news agency TASS, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) were heading toward Moscow at different times early morning. All of them were reportedly eliminated by air defenses and electronic warfare means.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 4, 2023

Ukrainian forces have advanced far enough along the axis from Mala Tokmachka through Robotyne to Tokmak that it’s safe for recovery teams to work. @forbes #ukraine https://t.co/9bmG9eB9ne

— David Axe (@daxe) July 2, 2023

Barbed Wire thread

@TrentTelenko Hello, please find the unroll here: https://t.co/nkN6Hx9MOe Enjoy :) 🤖

— Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) July 3, 2023

laughably pro-Kremlin and full of @#$#@

sure, losing literally thousands upon thousands of heavy armaments, tanks, APC, IFVs, SAMS, electronic warfare, tankers, support vehicles...

no problem for Russia

but Ukraine CREATING A BRAND NEW NATO ARMED ARMY is somehow now a victory for Putin?!?!

it's literally laughable that propaganda and idiocy which on it's face is illogical.

If the Russian objective is to "demilitarize" Ukraine, then how does Ukraine gaining a squadron of F-16s, HIMARS, TACAMS, Leopards, Abrams, NASAMs, Challengers and thousands of other western weapons systems attain that objective

when before the invasion Ukraine had only old Soviet equipement??!!?

I'm going to just stay on topic here, happy to contribute.

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