Me too!
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 2 hrs ago by 74OA
Here's more on Russia's steady decline.
Its biggest problem isn't the war. It's losing the 21st Century.
FAILING STATE
Its biggest problem isn't the war. It's losing the 21st Century.
FAILING STATE
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-july-ukrainian-defense-forces-to-reinforce-northern-borderQuote:
Ukrainian Defense Forces to reinforce northern border in connection with events at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, - commander Nayev
Reported 9 hours ago on LiveUAMap:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-july-missile-strike-was-reported-at-military-warehouses
Quote:
Missile strike was reported at military warehouses in Yakymivka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-july-missile-strike-was-reported-at-military-warehouses
Despite the clickbait first post in this thread. It does a decent job outlining how attritional warfare favors Russia and NATO being afraid of escalation is playing into Russia's hands.
She doesn't just come out and say it but we need to be arming Ukraine with ground launchers for tomahawks and other long range weapons to allow the Ukrainians to dismantle the Russian arms industry.
NATO just eat the Russian bait!
— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) July 4, 2023
For several months, Ukraine had been requesting weapons while NATO had been avoiding escalation. However, nobody realized that the West was walking into a Russian trap.
When NATO refused long-range weapons, modern armored vehicles and air power,…
She doesn't just come out and say it but we need to be arming Ukraine with ground launchers for tomahawks and other long range weapons to allow the Ukrainians to dismantle the Russian arms industry.
It amazes me someone can do all that "research" and write all that. Yet fail to realize the Russian manufacturing numbers not only are a completely bogus fabrication to start. And they're all from before sanctions.
And I actually agree with the premise that slow rolling weaponry to Ukraine is dumb.
And I actually agree with the premise that slow rolling weaponry to Ukraine is dumb.
I agree. Likely there was never a real threat of escalation after the initial debacle that was the 'Three Day Special Operation' was over and Russia could tell they had their hands full.AgLA06 said:
And I actually agree with the premise that slow rolling weaponry to Ukraine is dumb.
Slow rolling has cost many UKR many lives. At the beginning, we weren't really convinced UKR wasn't going to roll over. Now there is no excuse.
Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, D.C. pic.twitter.com/xeKRF3Mz3T
— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) July 4, 2023
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-july-general-staff-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine-says-russianQuote:
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine says Russian troops deployed possible explosive devices at the roof of 4th unit of Zaporizhzhia power plant
Using helos cuts both ways. "Overall, the recently increased elimination of Russian helicopters over the past month is partly or entirely caused by the shortage of artillery at disposal of Russian invasion forces, as we explained in one of our previous articles. And the fact Russians deploy their army aviation to cover for the lack of howitzers plays an important role in the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive." If that's accurate, the sudden increased use of expensive attack helos instead of cheap artillery is actually a good sign.LMCane said:74OA said:The offensive is still focused on attacking Russian logistics, command hubs and artillery, so Ukraine doesn't need to take Mariupol and Melitopol in the near term, just get close enough to place them under fire.P.U.T.U said:
Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city
Getting close enough to hit them and the LOCs running from them is an important step towards starving the Russian force in the south of the high resupply volume needed to enable its usual prolific munitions expenditure--particularly artillery fires.
The broad-front Ukranian advance compliments this interdiction campaign and is intended, amongst other things, to keep as many Russians as possible in contact and steadily drawing down their stockpile of increasingly hard to get munitions.
Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine's primary mechanized force is being held in reserve until sufficient weakness develops to make a concentrated assault on a narrower front feasible.
Will this approach succeed? I have no particular insight, but the strategy seems a good ends-ways-means fit for Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses.
from what the Uke commentators are stating- it's the Russkie KA-52 and other attack choppers that are the biggest threat to their armor moving forward.
the Russians have greater range than anything the AFU can deploy- so their armor is always sitting ducks.
it may make sense to wait until F-16s come online-
and then use them to blast the Russian choppers when they come up to hit the advancing Uke armor hitting the weak spots.
HELOS
🚩New IAEA statement: #Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its main external power line early this morning, forcing it to rely on recently restored back-up power supplies
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) July 4, 2023
Lots of smoke suggesting Russia is preparing to do something at the Nuclear Power Plant. If it happens, when Tucker Carlson blames Ukraine, you'll know that Russia is in control of the plant and is making moves before the event occurs.
The smoke is all about a false flag operation: they've been lying about it for many days now, and issuing propaganda about the Russians/need to escalate if 'something' happens.
Let's hope it fails to trigger some sort of insane escalation.
It's not all bad news, but there will be propaganda when the Ukrainians proceed with attacking a couple of the ZNPP reactors.Quote:Now, Zelensky has made two separate videos where he plainly states that Russia is preparing a massive terrorist attack at the ZNPP plant "just like they did at the Kakhovka dam". He goes on to sternly warn the world and charge them with the responsibility to act with utmost severity in response to this upcoming Russian attack. He specifically invokes the threat of radiation crossing the borders into other NATO countries for obvious effect.Quote:
"The 4th and 6th power units of the Zaporozhye NPP were mined by Russia," Kyrylo Budanov
"The situation has never been as serious as it is now.
The plan of the terrorist attack at the ZNPP has been fully developed and approved. To accelerate the catastrophe, they can use technical means," Budanov stated
…
Ukrainian presidential advisor Podolyak added to the orchestrated release with his own statement, slowly conditioning the narrative that Russia is losing its grip on Energodar and will blow the plant to "stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive".
Let's hope it fails to trigger some sort of insane escalation.
IMHO, nothing is going to happen to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant neither tonight nor tomorrow or in the nearest time.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 4, 2023
Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of…
" IMHO, nothing is going to happen to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant neither tonight nor tomorrow or in the nearest time.
Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of intimidation and blackmailing against Ukraine & the world.
And if so, absolutely no one is going to very seriously buy it that it was Ukraine that blew up a giant NPP in the middle of its own national territory (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree).
But if/when Russians have to leave the plant as a result of a military defeat -- they will be more than interested in stripping Ukraine of such a priceless facility that is crucial for the country's post-war reconstruction and development.
So unless the world gives a very clear message (such as "Ukraine will get a stockpile of Tomahawk missiles if anything happens to the NPP", for instance), chances are high that Russians are going to do that.
But before they have to leave forever, this is unlikely.
However, given all the dumb isht they've done throughout this war & beyond, that's not the hill I'd die on."
Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of intimidation and blackmailing against Ukraine & the world.
And if so, absolutely no one is going to very seriously buy it that it was Ukraine that blew up a giant NPP in the middle of its own national territory (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree).
But if/when Russians have to leave the plant as a result of a military defeat -- they will be more than interested in stripping Ukraine of such a priceless facility that is crucial for the country's post-war reconstruction and development.
So unless the world gives a very clear message (such as "Ukraine will get a stockpile of Tomahawk missiles if anything happens to the NPP", for instance), chances are high that Russians are going to do that.
But before they have to leave forever, this is unlikely.
However, given all the dumb isht they've done throughout this war & beyond, that's not the hill I'd die on."
I agree as well and have for some time. I take all the warnings from the west as getting out in front of the issue right now so there is zero ambiguity of who did what and what would happen IF anything were to happen. A literal deterrence tactic.
Destroying that NPP would be so counterproductive to everyone involved that it is laughable to rational people. The problem lies that I do not think Putin is completely rational. Not that he is a crazed loon by any means though. I believe he is completely lucid but lives in a bubble of mixed reality. How many times have we seen world leaders fall into the very trap of surrounding themselves with yes men? It's a worldwide and multicultural adage at this point. So only time will tell of course. I think the chances are extremely unlikely but with Russia, they will never be 0 either.
Destroying that NPP would be so counterproductive to everyone involved that it is laughable to rational people. The problem lies that I do not think Putin is completely rational. Not that he is a crazed loon by any means though. I believe he is completely lucid but lives in a bubble of mixed reality. How many times have we seen world leaders fall into the very trap of surrounding themselves with yes men? It's a worldwide and multicultural adage at this point. So only time will tell of course. I think the chances are extremely unlikely but with Russia, they will never be 0 either.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/4-july-russia-hit-the-kharkiv-region-with-the-s300-air-defenseQuote:
Russia hit the Kharkiv region with the S-300 air defense system. Some of the rockets exploded in the Belgorod region, - Serhiy Melnyk, the head of the Kharkiv military garrison, reports
74OA said:Ukrainian Embassy in Washington, D.C. pic.twitter.com/xeKRF3Mz3T
— Paul Massaro (@apmassaro3) July 4, 2023
American ideals mean something!
That is a big boom.
WATCH: Ukrainian missiles hit ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Makeevka, near Donetsk pic.twitter.com/OC02igyFCP
— BNO News (@BNONews) July 4, 2023
rybar has been doom and gloom for russia all week.
— david D. (@secretsqrl123) July 5, 2023
Spectacular drone footage of the Russian ammunition depot which got eliminated yesterday night. You can clearly see the missiles of MLRS and the amount of them is breathtaking.
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) July 5, 2023
To store so much ammunition in the center of Makiivka/Donetsk just paraphrases how little regard the… pic.twitter.com/kvWyq2sgGI
Looks like they even had white phosphorous there. I almost think that Russia blames Ukraine for bombing the ammunition depots
Quote:
Russian bloggers reporting withdrawal from Klischiyivka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-july-russian-bloggers-reporting-withdrawal-from-klischiyivka
Good news from south of Bakhmut.
‼️Контрнаступ без прикрас‼️
— Оперативний ЗСУ (@operativno_ZSU) July 4, 2023
Контрнаступ триває такими темпами, які можливі на даний момент.
Так звільняється українська земля від ворога.
Метр за метром.
Відео з гоу-про від бійця 3 ОШБр. https://t.co/7afzWKQabH pic.twitter.com/sC3stMZWKl
Russian forces use a massive train hub with 73 railways in Yasynuvata for the military logistics to/from occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Ilovaisk (train hub), Debaltseve (train hub) and Russia. 2/ pic.twitter.com/WwMRrXWSBX
— Alexander Khrebet (@AlexKhrebet) July 5, 2023
Several incoming shells reported at the Yasynuvata train hub.
— Alexander Khrebet (@AlexKhrebet) July 5, 2023
The cargo trains and long vehicles are on fire in the place Russian forces uses for its logistics.
Yesterday, an ammo depot was destroyed in nearby occupied Makiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
More to come 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/4wOld6BXja
GeoConfirmed UKR [CO].
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) July 4, 2023
It was noted that Ukraine is stepping up in the destruction of Russian artillery (Field and AA).
This is also visible on our map (Use the filter).
These are all the geolocated hit/destroyed -visually confirmed- Russian artillery assets in the last month.… pic.twitter.com/rKqfVyvDPE
Waffledynamics said:Quote:
Russian bloggers reporting withdrawal from Klischiyivka
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/5-july-russian-bloggers-reporting-withdrawal-from-klischiyivka
Good news from south of Bakhmut.
⚡️⚡️🇷🇺Russian military bloggers report that the Russian military has left the strategic settlement of Klishchiivka near Bakhmut.
— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) July 5, 2023
He also reports that the city of Bakhmut itself is under fire control of the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine
We are waiting for the official version of the… pic.twitter.com/9YjScC4An8
They need to quit fighting these front line trenched isolated Russian units and bypass them. Leave some small rear units to watch them and just wait for them to surrender once they get hungry from lack of food. They're not in any way equipped to counterattack or conduct a mobile operation so just cut them off by getting around and past them and attacking their logistics support.
MouthBQ98 said:
They need to quit fighting these front line trenched isolated Russian units and bypass them. Leave some small rear units to watch them and just wait for them to surrender once they get hungry from lack of food. They're not in any way equipped to counterattack or conduct a mobile operation so just cut them off by getting around and past them and attacking their logistics support.
From my understanding, it seems this is what they're doing around Bakhmut. Taking Klischiyivka would cut a supply route.
The current pace of #Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that #Ukraine cannot retake large areas. https://t.co/KzvP749pj5 https://t.co/XbnYERAzro pic.twitter.com/sHPMcloKsf
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) July 5, 2023
Wow .... try and wrap your brain around that. LOLQuote:
... asymmetrical attrition gradient ...
Thread Rollup:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676582398002180096.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1676582398002180096.html
GeoConfirmed UKR - Thread.
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) July 5, 2023
❌"The hospital in Makiivka (Donetsk) came under barbaric shelling by Ukrainian militants."❌
DISINFORMATION.
Not the first time:
This is applicable on a lot of 'Donetsk' shelling claimed to be the responsibility of Ukraine.
A thread.
1/X https://t.co/EPiNBZI1C9
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