Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city

It should be noted that other maps like DeepState have not yet updated with that information. I'm skeptical and would like to find corroboration of what LiveUAMap is currently showing. The information comes from the General Staff of the AFU.

Very interesting for sure.

P.U.T.U said:

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Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city

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If the Ukes push to Mariupol, or even take it back, I think you see some real peace attempts by Russia and not the BS ones they've tried in the past.

Waffledynamics said:

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It should be noted that other maps like DeepState have not yet updated with that information. I'm skeptical and would like to find corroboration of what LiveUAMap is currently showing. The information comes from the General Staff of the AFU.

Very interesting for sure.

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The AFU General Staff have not been known for overstating things like that. If anything, usually what they put out is a couple of days behind in cases where they don't want to give the enemy free intel on their movements.

AgLA06 said:

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If that's correct, they just drove 1/4 of the way to the Sea of Azov.

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and that could precipitate a panicked dis-organized withdrawal away from the heat. Wonder if this is a big of enough of a push to start committing fresh troops and armor?

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city

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The offensive is still focused on attacking Russian logistics, command hubs and artillery, so Ukraine doesn't have to take Mariupol and Melitopol in the near term, just get close enough to place them under fire.

Getting close enough to those two cities to hit them and the LOCs running from them is an important step towards starving the Russian force in the south of the volume of supplies needed to defend itself with high rates of fire--particularly intense artillery fire.

The complimentary broad-front Ukranian advance is intended, amongst other things, to keep as many Russians as possible in contact and steadily drawing down their stockpiles of increasingly hard to get munitions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine's primary mechanized force is being held in reserve until sufficient weakness develops to make a more concentrated assault on a narrower front feasible.

Will this approach succeed? I have no particular insight, but the strategy seems a good fit for Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses.

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Agreed.

I'd love to see them bypass it and other large cities / defenses and drive straight to the sea splitting Melitopol and Mariupol. Then push from Kherson to the Sea of Azov in a pincer and wait them out. All the south would be liberated and Crimea is isolated.

Good luck reinforcing by sea with the new weapon announcements.

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This. Don't try to take the big cities back right away. We saw how the orcs got bogged down trying to do that in Mariupol and Bakhmut. Just drive a wedge in between them, cut off the supply routes, then use the new position on the coast of the Sea of Azov to harass resupply effort via Crimea. Without water or supplies to Crimea, the orc troops there will collapse in short order.

txags92 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city

---

The offensive is still focused on attacking Russian logistics, command hubs and artillery, so Ukraine doesn't have to take Mariupol and Melitopol in the near term, just get close enough to place them under fire.

Getting close enough to those two cities to hit them and the LOCs running from them is an important step towards starving the Russian force in the south of the volume of supplies needed to defend itself with high rates of fire--particularly intense artillery fire.

The complimentary broad-front Ukranian advance is intended, amongst other things, to keep as many Russians as possible in contact and steadily drawing down their stockpiles of increasingly hard to get munitions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine's primary mechanized force is being held in reserve until sufficient weakness develops to make a more concentrated assault on a narrower front feasible.

Will this approach succeed? I have no particular insight, but the strategy seems a good fit for Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses.

---

Agreed.

I'd love to see them bypass it and other large cities / defenses and drive straight to the sea splitting Melitopol and Mariupol. Then push from Kherson to the Sea of Azov in a pincer and wait them out. All the south would be liberated and Crimea is isolated.

Good luck reinforcing by sea with the new weapon announcements.

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This. Don't try to take the big cities back right away. We saw how the orcs got bogged down trying to do that in Mariupol and Bakhmut. Just drive a wedge in between them, cut off the supply routes, then use the new position on the coast of the Sea of Azov to harass resupply effort via Crimea. Without water or supplies to Crimea, the orc troops there will collapse in short order.

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the Crimean canal is done for after the dam breech; water supplies have got to be a pressing issue

DPICM under serious consideration. We must stop self-deterring and asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back. What is the point of having a clean battlefield if Russia ends up owning it? Thanks to Russia, Ukraine already has a massive mine clean-up ahead, so let it decide if adding cluster munition duds to that hazard is worth the additional combat capability DPICM brings.

CLUSTER

AgLA06 said:

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74OA said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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Mariupol and Melitopol are key logistic centers, take those and you cut off anything to the west like Kherson. I have not looked at the maps but if Ukraine made it that far in they are likely past the second line of defenses in that area. They will have to start again at Tokmak since I remember seeing defenses around the city

---

The offensive is still focused on attacking Russian logistics, command hubs and artillery, so Ukraine doesn't have to take Mariupol and Melitopol in the near term, just get close enough to place them under fire.

Getting close enough to those two cities to hit them and the LOCs running from them is an important step towards starving the Russian force in the south of the volume of supplies needed to defend itself with high rates of fire--particularly intense artillery fire.

The complimentary broad-front Ukranian advance is intended, amongst other things, to keep as many Russians as possible in contact and steadily drawing down their stockpiles of increasingly hard to get munitions.

Meanwhile, it appears that Ukraine's primary mechanized force is being held in reserve until sufficient weakness develops to make a more concentrated assault on a narrower front feasible.

Will this approach succeed? I have no particular insight, but the strategy seems a good fit for Ukrainian strengths and Russian weaknesses.

---

Agreed.

I'd love to see them bypass it and other large cities / defenses and drive straight to the sea splitting Melitopol and Mariupol. Then push from Kherson to the Sea of Azov in a pincer and wait them out. All the south would be liberated and Crimea is isolated.

Good luck reinforcing by sea with the new weapon announcements.

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Taking another look at this, I believe this might be the actual plan. The breach they've created points directly to the Obitochna Split peninsula that appears would allow them to have fire control over the Sea of Azov and Kerch bridge. That would be huge.

I understand not liking cluster munitions but in places like Ukraine with all the mines planted by both sides, mainly Russia, clusters are only a small percentage of the issues.

Whats the mushroom cloud in the South ?

Multiple explosions at Berdiansk airport

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Multiple explosions at Berdiansk airport

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Deep in Russian territory towards the Ukraine coast. I know some Uke soldiers complain about how little artillery they fire compared to Russia but they actually hit what they are aiming for

This is a great documentary on a Ukraine battlefield triage / MASH unit.

It appears Russia is really concerned about the bridgehead across the river. The Ukes have made it so air support is too dangerous and EW has neutered the drones, so now they're apparently launching cruise missiles at it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14n2p3u/iskander_strike_on_ukrainian_beachhead_near/

really cool video of pitch-up helicopter attack on Orc positions

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14mu0ph/two_ukrainian_mi8_attack_helicopters_doing_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

HIMARS taking out 4 Orc self propelled guns. Just nasty when used this way to shape the battlefield.

Quote:

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Ukrainian HIMARS taking out battery of russian MSTA-S self-propelled howitzers
by u/tomina69 in CombatFootage

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A Russian Command Headquarters and Supply Depot in the Occupied-City of Berdyansk was reportedly Hit by Ukrainian “Storm Shadow” Air-Launched Cruise Missiles earlier today, with at least 6 Missiles said to have been launched; Russian Sources are reporting that a number of “Storm… pic.twitter.com/0OkIYdD9ne

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 30, 2023

Looks like they are using the T-54s as stationary guns.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/29/the-russians-are-using-their-old-t-54-tanks-as-pillboxes-possibly-with-a-single-soldier-inside/?sh=2769c8475160

pic.twitter.com/XuSQwKB179

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 29, 2023

These guys are going to go mad with tinnitus. If they survive.

Hence why Ukraine doesn't need to fire 500 rounds to hit 4 targets like Russia has to. Yes HIMARs cost a ton more but if you can fire 4 shots and then move the chances of counter artillery hitting you is a whole lot lower.

Tinnitus, TBI, and you name it. They will be messed up for the rest of their life even if they never get any kind of PTSD

P.U.T.U said:

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Tinnitus, TBI, and you name it. They will be messed up for the rest of their life even if they never get any kind of PTSD

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Probably won't have to worry about living much longer.

Per the reported location, this tank is right on the front pic.twitter.com/OrGbH57bvg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 29, 2023

2wealfth Man said:

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HIMARS taking out 4 Orc self propelled guns. Just nasty when used this way to shape the battlefield.

Quote:

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Ukrainian HIMARS taking out battery of russian MSTA-S self-propelled howitzers
by u/tomina69 in CombatFootage

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Is this this same one from a month ago or did they take out a second battery?

AgLA06 said:

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Great post by an Ukranian soldier about first hand experience regarding the difference between using western made heavy equipment and soviet / Russian made.

Western equipment take exponentially more punishment and gets troops home alive. Not so much for Russian equipment.

Would U like to know a short summary about Western supplied vehicles? It was made for people. That’s it.

My friends from different units told my a lot of stories how those vehicles saved a lot of lives.

I know the fact about one…

1/2 pic.twitter.com/9gwxwi2pWu

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) June 30, 2023

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MORE

Could be the difference in the war

You can replace equipment. Can't replace well-trained, battle-hardened soldiers

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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Could be the difference in the war

You can replace equipment. Can't replace well-trained, battle-hardened soldiers

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We know supplies are strained.

Only a well equipped group has 4 ATGMs and a support tank. Demoralizing to use all that and not take out an assaulting tank.

Now imagine what one could do against the average Russian positions. I didn't think Leopards would be game changers by any stretch, but that's something.

The other thing is all we've heard is how costly this offensive has been for the Ukes. "Supposedly"

24 Bradley's is all they've been confirmed to have lost. There's stories of going back a couple days later when fighting had moved off and driving supposedly destroyed western equipment home for repairs.

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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Could be the difference in the war

You can replace equipment. Can't replace well-trained, battle-hardened soldiers

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That has always been the philosophical difference between us and the orcs. To us, the vehicles are a means to get a trained soldier to the point of combat with as many advantages as we can, but overall to protect them to the extent possible. We place the value on the trained soldier and protect accordingly. To the orcs, the vehicle is a means to get a weapon close to the enemy and the troops operating it can be replaced, if needed. So they make as many gun carrying vehicles as they can as cheaply as they can, and if they need more troops because they are inadequately protected, they will just conscript them.

txags92 said:

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ReturnOfTheAg said:

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Could be the difference in the war

You can replace equipment. Can't replace well-trained, battle-hardened soldiers

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That has always been the philosophical difference between us and the orcs. To us, the vehicles are a means to get a trained soldier to the point of combat with as many advantages as we can, but overall to protect them to the extent possible. We place the value on the trained soldier and protect accordingly. To the orcs, the vehicle is a means to get a weapon close to the enemy and the troops operating it can be replaced, if needed. So they make as many gun carrying vehicles as they can as cheaply as they can, and if they need more troops because they are inadequately protected, they will just conscript them.

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I mean modern warfare has evolved to the point that it's almost a guarantee that any land-based vehicle will likely get hit by an ATGM or some form of attack method.

That clear eyed view is why I think western engineering is so much more equipped to stretch tank warfare as far as it can be taken currently. If your MBT, IFV etc.. can not only take more hits, but save the crew at all costs… it's doing the job. Tanks are far more beneficial for troop movement than just blowing crap up

74OA said:

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DPICM under serious consideration. We must stop self-deterring and asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back. What is the point of having a clean battlefield if Russia ends up owning it? Thanks to Russia, Ukraine already has a massive mine clean-up ahead, so let it decide if adding cluster munition duds to that hazard is worth the additional combat capability DPICM brings.

CLUSTER

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These must be the M39 & M39A1 ATACAMS. I think we have close to 1500 of them and most around 30 years old. They are supposed to be converted to M57E1s but I bet the conversion cost is higher than making new M57s and the PSMs are supposed to replace the ATACMS (all variants) anyway with greater range 100+ miles and come two per pod instead of one.

There almost isn't another effective weapon like this, that makes complete logical sense on all fronts to give to the Ukrainians. Once the PSMs are in inventory these are almost obsolete. The potential civilian casualty risk is rendered moot by allowing the orcs to continue hitting civilian infrastructure from short to medium weapons while dumping all kinds of mines whenever and wherever they can. Meanwhile talk about a trench clearing charge or possibly even mines. The M39 has 950 bomblets and the M39A1 300. Probably work well over Sevastipul as well when ships refueling or taking on cruise missiles.

Ramp up production of the PSMs for our own stockpile and send these to Ukraine in 25-50 unit blocks. Given today's speech by Zelensky. send some immediately to defend the northern front from potential wagner incursion and keep the majority of the announced reinforcement focused on retaking ground in the east and south.