It does seem like something is going on in Belarus, no one has seen a convoy from Russia to there yet but several private type planes. Makes you wonder what the deal what with Prigozhin and Lukashenko

AgBank said:

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Gradually and then suddenly.

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One of my favorite Hemingway quotes.

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Railway was blown up near Vladyslavivka village in occupied Crimea

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-railway-was-blown-up-near-vladyslavivka-village-in

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Ukrainian Defense Forces have success at Novodarivka Pryutne and Novodanylivka Robotyne directions

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-ukrainian-defense-forces-have-success-at-novodarivka

Violence of Action.
The lead guy coming out of the middle armor reminds me of Chapman.
I don't know if he survived out there alone but It made me think of Patton.

"it is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14kaxl4/assault_of_1st_mechanized_battalion_of_the_28th/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

LarryElder said:

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Gordo14 said:

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PlaneCrashGuy said:

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That is awful. This has to end soon.

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Russia can end it by leaving whenever they want. 70% of Ukranians want to continue until they recover all their lost territory.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/403133/ukrainians-support-fighting-until-victory.aspx

Russia is the party that forced this war on Ukraine. They are in the wrong. I would love for this war to end tomorrow, but Ukraine is fighting for their existence. Russia is fighting for imperialist fantasies of a dictator. Glad you're finally acknowledging how evil Russia's actions are.

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UKE will have to negotiate they cant push Russia out

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It seems like the past 16 months says differently - but maybe you're correct. We will see.

lb3 said:

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/1
Russians defeated in major battle in the south: huge offensive attack was caught in a pocket of UKR artillery fire from three sides. Russians have had tremendous problems doing a combined arms assault and now these losses cannot be replaced.

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) June 25, 2023

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/6 Here you see how Russians are stripping their defenses to mass for these attacks. These poorly done attacks may also simply be political orders to keep advancing (given by some drunk general who has no feel for the actual situation on the front).https://t.co/8PVgwTO5n2

— Randy Mott (@randymot4) June 25, 2023

I think pushing them completely out of Crimea and Donbas would be a tall order. However, they can liberate a significant amount of occupied lands and should do so. National defense is the most fundamental duty of any government.

Less tanks for the front.

Wow, so Putin spent $2 billion just on Wagner’s payroll and Prigozhin’s catering contracts. Quite a return on investments. https://t.co/xuXtJuPPOZ

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 27, 2023

Wagner mercenaries shot down at least 6 Russian helicopter gunships and a command & control plane during mutiny, might be biggest one-day total since Afghanistan in the 80s, officials say.

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) June 27, 2023

Teslag said:

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I think pushing them completely out of Crimea and Donbas would be a tall order. However, they can liberate a significant amount of occupied lands and should do so. National defense is the most fundamental duty of any government.

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I agree with this assessment. I also think Crimea would be a point where Putin might use nukes.

PJYoung said:

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Less tanks for the front.

Wow, so Putin spent $2 billion just on Wagner’s payroll and Prigozhin’s catering contracts. Quite a return on investments. https://t.co/xuXtJuPPOZ

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 27, 2023

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How the hell the Moscow unit didn't have a few tanks is beyond me. I guess memories of 91.

Crazy on how well Wagner dealt with Russia without air support. Seemed similar to Ukraines success at the beginning of the war.

Quote:

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Lukashenka: camps for Wagner are not being built in Belarus, but we will help them with accommodation if necessary - Belta

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-lukashenka-camps-for-wagner-are-not-being-built-in

Take it for what it's worth.

"Today, our soldiers have made progress in all areas, and this is a happy day. I wish them more such days," Zelensky said after a visit to troops on the eastern and southern front lines. (2/2)

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 27, 2023

More corroboration of the likely Ukrainian crossing of the Dnipro near Kherson:



Reported yesterday:

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2 person killed, 9 wounded as result of shelling in Oleshky in occupied part of Kherson region

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/26-june-2-person-killed-9-wounded-as-result-of-shelling-in


Reported 3 hours ago:

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Fire near Kherson after bombardment with incendiary ammunition

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-explosions-audible-in-kherson-after-reported-launch


Reported 2 hours ago:

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Explosions audible in Kherson after reported launch of guided bombs

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-explosions-audible-in-kherson-after-reported-launch


Also, the General Staff of the AFU morning report has Russian air strikes reported on Oleshky.

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At Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions Russian army shelled Temyrivka, Novodarivka, Levadne, Olhivske, Malynivka, Zaporizhzhya, Chervone, Huliaipole, Zaliznychne, Huliaipilske, Mala Tokmachka, Orikhiv, Scherbaky, Pyatykhatky, Lobkove of Zaporizhzhia region; Nikopol of Dnipropetrovsk region; Dudchany, Olhivka, Respublikanets, Lvove, Tyahynka, Burhunka, Kachkarivka, Mykolayivka, Zmiyivka, Antonivka, Naddnipryanske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne, Zelenivka, Kherson, Bilozerka, Berehove, Dniprovske, Romashkove and Charivne of Kherson region and Ochakiv of Mykolaiv region. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Levadne and Oleshky, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/27-june-at-zaporizhzhia-and-kherson-directions-russian-army

Things seem to be steadily falling for the Ukes over the past week or so.

MouthBQ98 said:

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They will strain Russian logistics until they fail to resupply an area adequately for too long, then identify it through lack of defensive fires and break through it. It's pretty much a matter of time.

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Calls for peace are getting a little shrill in the other thread.

With maps!

aezmvp said:

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Teslag said:

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I think pushing them completely out of Crimea and Donbas would be a tall order. However, they can liberate a significant amount of occupied lands and should do so. National defense is the most fundamental duty of any government.

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I agree with this assessment. I also think Crimea would be a point where Putin might use nukes.

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I'm interested in why you think the 'Crimea nukes' scenario might be a valid option. Deployed where? Such deployment would outweigh any consequences of the event itself, or from the opposing alliance?

It might not be that they haven't learned. It may be that they have learned too late. Russia has always been reliant on methodically plodding forwards in major military engagement as their experience in doing so is WWII. They use rail heavily domestically and this also militarily. They don't have a huge number of cargo trucks in their military, or cargo handling equipment, as they have relied on manual labor in the past.

Now, they have more limited manual labor resources, and the war has taken a big toll on their already limited military trucking, so they are even more rail bound. Rail lines are route inflexible of course so the bridges and depots and yards can be targeted.

Russia is probably doing what they can, but in certain regions in the Ukraine battle area they have limited options, and limited resources, and if Ukraine can press logistical demand beyond its capacity, the Russians will locally run out of fuel, ammunition, food, reinforcements, etc. They will be very weak and unable to counter a determined attack in such a circumstance.

aggiehawg said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They will strain Russian logistics until they fail to resupply an area adequately for too long, then identify it through lack of defensive fires and break through it. It's pretty much a matter of time.

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Hard to believe the Russian military commanders have learned so little about their failures in logistics in the last 16 months.

They started out with that long convoy on one highway towards Kiev. Had the Ukrainians had the air power back then, it would been a repeat of the Highway of Death in Kuwait in the first Gulf War and over in the same amount of time.

Amazing.

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Large militaries, like any organization, are cultural and with that comes ingrained methods and tailored equipment hard to quickly change. The US army prides itself on mobility. It's always a recurrent theme from infantry to medical/support. Even the way the units are organized have this mind and have for decades. From the rapid deployment of entire divisions like the 82nd all the way to the forward logistic elements at the company level.

Rossticus said:

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A Embraer Legacy 600 with the Registration “RA-02795” which is reportedly a Business Jet used by Wagner PMC Leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin has landed at Machulishchy Air Force Base to the South of Minsk, Belarus after Taking-Off from an Air Field in the Rostov Region of Southwestern… pic.twitter.com/Ny0oomL6bN

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 27, 2023

In addition to Prigozhin’s plane, a business jet BAe-125-800B (reg. number RA-02878) took off from St. Petersburg and at 7:58 landed at Machulishchy military airfield. pic.twitter.com/8NzeJO5ajF

— Belarusian Hajun project (@Hajun_BY) June 27, 2023

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Brave of him to fly through Russian airspace. I would have done my damnedest to take a southern route out and around Ukraine for fear that Putin may send some mid-flight greetings.

Which of the Baltic countries would allow him through their airspace? I'm not sure he had that option.

Russia's logistic are heavily rail based which is why they have efficient rail repair crews. This is why Ukraine is trying to focus on rail bridges that are a lot more difficult to repair. Or even better is attacking ammo depots next to rails that happened earlier this month that takes out a very large section of rails.

This is starting to look more like this time last year where Ukraine is taking our ammo and logistic centers while advancing. The big question is once you get to Crimea does Russia have more short range ship/sub based missiles to cover the island? I know they are running short on the longer range that can hit the mainland. Seems if they get on Crimea the first thing Ukraine needs to focus on besides the Kerch bridge again are the naval ports. Russia has fortified the sea side of the ports so drone boats may not be a viable option for a while

Here's an update on the status of Prigozhin and Wagner.

Today's SITREP.

Question?

Are there still military ships patrolling just off of the Turkish straits leading to the Black Sea? Is that still a bottle neck for resupply of Crimea by sea?