***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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rgag12
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In reply to PJYoung • 12:53p, 6/24/23
AG
PJYoung said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
The Russians are going through a coup and potential civil war because they may have tried to kill Wagner.


Thar part seemed staged. Wagner has been planning this for many months.


100%, that "missle attack" seemed a little suspect to say the least. I imagine Wagner has been planning this for some time, especially if the reports are true and Wagner columns are already in Moscow Oblast. You need serious coordination to move that quickly.
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Squadron7
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 12:53p, 6/24/23
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
What??!!?? This is like some after school meet me behind the gym fight now?

It's going to be the undercard for the Musk v. Zuck bout.
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ReturnOfTheAg
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In reply to javajaws • 12:54p, 6/24/23
AG
Wagner is too large and capable a force for the Defense Ministry to kill Prigozhin. They'd martyr him.

I mean they just got within 100km of Moscow in a day and shot down 8 Russian aircraft.
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Robert L. Peters
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12:57p, 6/24/23
What you say, Paper Champion? I'm gonna beat you like a dog, a dog, you hear me!
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McInnis 03
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1:08p, 6/24/23
AG
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In reply to
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1:11p, 6/24/23
AG
I find myself perplexed regarding the Wagner Group. My understanding was that they served as a means of plausible deniability, yet were ultimately under Kremlin control.

It appears that they had greater autonomy than I initially thought in order to orchestrate this coup.
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tremble
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 1:11p, 6/24/23
AG
My thoughts as well, corruption proceedings against both and they wind up defenestrated in short order.
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ReturnOfTheAg
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 1:13p, 6/24/23
AG
Not good news
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amercer
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In reply to In reply to • 1:15p, 6/24/23
AG
Lord Goldeneyes said:
I find myself perplexed regarding the Wagner Group. My understanding was that they served as a means of plausible deniability, yet were ultimately under Kremlin control.

It appears that they had greater autonomy than I initially thought in order to orchestrate this coup.


It actually parallels what has happened in Sudan. The dictator set up a separate army that was under his control. Problem is that you only need to break one link for that whole organization to go rouge.
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74OA
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1:18p, 6/24/23
AG
From elsewhere:

"Even if the last 36 hours of internecine conflict are drawing to a close and I don't necessarily buy that right now, waiting to see how things go I am reminded that the 1917 revolution didn't happen all at once either, but rather in a series of increasingly disruptive spasms.

Any way you slice it, this is a diminishment of Russian power, both across the board, and at any smaller institutional scale you care to consider. The nation is weakened, Putin is weakened, the Army is weakened, and potentially, so is Wagner.

This particular battle may (and I stress may) be over, but I don't think the process ends here."

.......and anyone who thinks Prigozhin survives this for long hasn't been watching over the years how Putin dealt with those who dared oppose him.
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Sq 17
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1:18p, 6/24/23
I think Wagner is standing down hoping Putin might fall out a window in the next 48 hours or possibly an orderly transfer of power happens
I don't see how Putin recovers from this and I doubt Wagner wants to try Urban warfare in Moscow rolling down a highway in a tank is safer than rolling into a city where police and various govt LEO's are waiting
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Gordo14
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:20p, 6/24/23
Sq 17 said:
I think Wagner is standing down hoping Putin might fall out a window in the next 48 hours or possibly an orderly transfer of power happens
I don't see how Putin recovers from this and I doubt Wagner wants to try Urban warfare in Moscow rolling down a highway in a tank is safer than rolling into a city where police and various govt LEO's are waiting


Yeah I would bet that Prigozhin is working to secure the support of oligarchs and other powerful decision makers before fully committing to civil war. Just my 2 cents.
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Choobadooba
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1:22p, 6/24/23
Prigozhin has no reason for a full civil war if the heads of the MoD are being replaced, presumably by people he wants.
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wessimo
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1:26p, 6/24/23
AG
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Sq 17
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In reply to Gordo14 • 1:26p, 6/24/23
Even If we was inclined to start a full civil war no way he has the manpower to take and control Moscow
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bonfarr
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1:27p, 6/24/23
AG
Can someone explain to me how The Wagner group is financed? I assume Putin pays Prighozin out of some Kremlin funds and Prighozin doles out money to his commanders and the Wagner soldiers. I would also guess their equipment and munitions are paid for by the Russian government. In the possible coup attempt if that is what it was how would he continue to pay his army? I imagine those guys that are thieves and murderers recently recruited from prisons would want to know what's in it for them to fight Moscow.

I wouldn't be surprised if the thing came to a halt after a giant payout to Prighozin.
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aezmvp
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1:29p, 6/24/23
Moscow is now the most complicated and dangerous political environment in the world. This is just getting started.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:30p, 6/24/23
AG
Sq 17 said:
Even If we was inclined to start a full civil war no way he has the manpower to take and control Moscow


What was going to stop him? Civilian cops with AKs?

He outgunned anything between him and the Kremlin.
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Gordo14
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:30p, 6/24/23
Sq 17 said:
Even If we was inclined to start a full civil war no way he has the manpower to take and control Moscow


Unless major power centers in the military back him. Also not convinced there's a lot of Russian military power behind the front lines in Ukraine at this point.
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Kceovaisnt-
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1:30p, 6/24/23
AG
Both sides had a lot to lose. I was wondering how Russia would mitigate the loss of revenue streams that are sanction proof through Wagner's mining and mineral rights in several countries in exchange for security contracts. If Russia goes to war with Wagner and lose those funds, how would they adjust? Perhaps this isn't over. A lot of people with a lot of power and influence looked like fools today and that likely is going to result in a significant loss of influence if they don't follow through with making an example out of one another.
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mickeyrig06sq3
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1:31p, 6/24/23
AG
Any chance this was a smoke screen? Chechen and Wagner are in Rostov, Russian Reserves and Wagner consolidate in Voronezh. Ukraine focused on moving south and to the west, Russia comes in from NE and SE?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Choobadooba • 1:34p, 6/24/23
AG
Choowey said:
Prigozhin has no reason for a full civil war if the heads of the MoD are being replaced, presumably by people he wants.
Okay, let's game this out from Prgozhin's POV. He has long complained that the Russian MOD has not been as supportive of his Wagner Group in waging the war in Ukraine. So simply exchanging his guys for the current guys doesn't fix the supply and logistics problems that have plagued him.

OTOH, if he has "his guys" effectively running the MOD, they can order the Russian forces to stand down and let Prigozhin waltz into Moscow with Putin being under house arrest?

So which scenario benefits him the most?
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Sq 17
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:34p, 6/24/23
AgLA06 said:
Sq 17 said:
Even If we was inclined to start a full civil war no way he has the manpower to take and control Moscow


What was going to stop him? Civilian cops with AKs?

He outgunned anything between him and the Kremlin.
Eventually the invaders have to get out of their tanks and yes the civilian cops with AK's can be quite effective especially if Putin loyalists in their Alphabet Agencies engage
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amercer
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In reply to mickeyrig06sq3 • 1:38p, 6/24/23
AG
mickeyrig06sq3 said:
Any chance this was a smoke screen? Chechen and Wagner are in Rostov, Russian Reserves and Wagner consolidate in Voronezh. Ukraine focused on moving south and to the west, Russia comes in from NE and SE?


Sure maybe, but it seems like they would have kept it up until Ukraine moved into the trap. I think the Ukrainians were just watching today.
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74OA
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1:39p, 6/24/23
AG
Meanwhile, back at the ranch.........



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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to Sq 17 • 1:39p, 6/24/23
AG
Sq 17 said:
I think Wagner is standing down hoping Putin might fall out a window in the next 48 hours or possibly an orderly transfer of power happens
I don't see how Putin recovers from this and I doubt Wagner wants to try Urban warfare in Moscow rolling down a highway in a tank is safer than rolling into a city where police and various govt LEO's are waiting
I think any hope or expectation of Putin stepping down or being removed is just not realistic.
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amercer
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In reply to jabberwalkie09 • 1:40p, 6/24/23
AG
He's got to die at some point.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to amercer • 1:50p, 6/24/23
AG
amercer said:
He's got to die at some point.
Oh I agree, I just don't think this is going to be what does him in.
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Central Committee
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1:51p, 6/24/23
AG
Wagner having any success was predicated on getting enough Russians to join them, or to at least seize enough ammo & logistic support to drive to Moscow, as Wagner has always been dependent upon the Russian logistics support.

I assume that they did not get enough of either to drive further.

I expect the RU military will eliminate Wagner one way or the other, and soon.
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LarryElder
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In reply to Central Committee • 1:52p, 6/24/23
Central Committee said:
Wagner having any success was predicated on getting enough Russians to join them, or to at least seize enough ammo & logistic support to drive to Moscow, as Wagner has always been dependent upon the Russian logistics support.

I assume that they did not get enough of either to drive further.

I expect the RU military will eliminate Wagner one way or the other, and soon.
yep and this will be forgotten in 2 weeks.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Central Committee • 1:55p, 6/24/23
AG
Quote:
I expect the RU military will eliminate Wagner one way or the other, and soon.
But aren't they the best trained and combat experienced troops they have? Wouldn't that gut the war effort even more?
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jobu93
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2:01p, 6/24/23
AG
Prig and Putin's dance isn't over. You cannot have both living. It's too confrontational. One will meet their demise.

Perhaps Prig was never really willing to go all in and end up in Moscow. Perhaps he was the Ed Harris General who rattled his saber and took over Alcatraz.

Except this isn't Hollywood and these guys are Russian despots. Someone will stop breathing soon.
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Pooh Ah
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In reply to bonfarr • 2:06p, 6/24/23
AG
On page 1115 JFABNRNGR posted a link to a WSJ Documentary that does a good job of explaining the Wagner group.

Sorry I'm not linking it. This is Mrs. Pooh Ah and I'm a lurker not a poster. Pooh Ah is busy or this would be much more helpful information.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Central Committee • 2:11p, 6/24/23
AG
Central Committee said:


I expect the RU military will eliminate Wagner one way or the other, and soon.


With what and how? Russia can't move forward in Ukraine and they're going to throw all remaining capable units to attack the 25k strong best fighting force they have on their own soil?

The Ukes couldn't have drawn that up any better if they tried. Russia can't afford to commit to stopping them and Wagner needs oligarch support to keep getting contracts and financing internationally.

The 50k best fighting men on Russia are all sitting far from the front lines in a Mexican standoff!
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SchizoAg
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In reply to Sq 17 • 2:13p, 6/24/23
AG
Sq 17 said:
I think Wagner is standing down hoping Putin might fall out a window in the next 48 hours or possibly an orderly transfer of power happens
I don't see how Putin recovers from this and I doubt Wagner wants to try Urban warfare in Moscow rolling down a highway in a tank is safer than rolling into a city where police and various govt LEO's are waiting
I don't know. Fighting against police officers seems a lot easier than fighting against a near-peer military adversary in Ukraine. I get the impression that Prigo likes preying on the weak. He has lost a lot of his enthusiasm for Ukraine after finding out how difficult and slow it is to prosecute a real war.
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