erudite said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin?

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Zero percent chance.

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If anything they will try to reclaim the Qing territories including Mongolia, Haishanwai (Vladivostok area) and Tannu Tuva.

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I was thinking their are some oil deposits in eastern Russia the CCP may have their eyes on?

txags92 said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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twk said:

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

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If the Russian supply lines from Rostov are cut, and as important as they are said to be, the Ukes just need to wait for the Russians to run out of food.

It would be folly for the Ukranians to lose personnel and military vehicles fighting some people who may decide to walk home within a week.

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The other side to that is if Wagner captures control rapidly, and reopens the supply lines and begins to press in Ukraine again, with more competent and brutal military leadership in charge. You will have missed the window to attack while the orcs are confused and demoralized.

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I don't see how the Russian military in whatever form can reconstitute it's forces to fight more effectively.

Prigozhin himself has said over and over again that this is a fruitless war and that it's unwinnable.

Vladivostok is a pretty big prize all by itself.
Both the Chinese and Japanese want that port.

aggiehawg said:

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erudite said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin?

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Zero percent chance.

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If anything they will try to reclaim the Qing territories including Mongolia, Haishanwai (Vladivostok area) and Tannu Tuva.

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I was thinking their are some oil deposits in eastern Russia the CCP may have their eyes on?

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That would be the Yakutia and Sakalin island.
Also:
"Prigozhin accepted Lukashenko's proposal to stop the Wagner movement in Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions". From Belarusian press service.

No immediate confirmation from the Kremlin or Prigozhin.

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023

PJYoung said:

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No immediate confirmation from the Kremlin or Prigozhin.

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023

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Don't see any way that anyone is able to walk anything back now

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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txags92 said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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twk said:

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

---

If the Russian supply lines from Rostov are cut, and as important as they are said to be, the Ukes just need to wait for the Russians to run out of food.

It would be folly for the Ukranians to lose personnel and military vehicles fighting some people who may decide to walk home within a week.

---

The other side to that is if Wagner captures control rapidly, and reopens the supply lines and begins to press in Ukraine again, with more competent and brutal military leadership in charge. You will have missed the window to attack while the orcs are confused and demoralized.

---

I don't see how the Russian military in whatever form can reconstitute it's forces to fight more effectively.

Prigozhin himself has said over and over again that this is a fruitless war and that it's unwinnable.

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I think he initially touted the party line about Ukraine, but has since realized how pointless the war is if they don't gain control of all of Ukraine. Will be interesting to see how he sells ending the war to the Russian public if he is able to get rid of Putin.

⚡️Prigozhin says Wagner will stop march on Moscow and withdraw to military field camps.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 24, 2023

aezmvp said:

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txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Should a firefight occur in moscow, do the military units tasked with protecting moscow and the high command have any real combat experience?

Obviously the aircrews are combat experienced but given the losses of their comrades may find some empathy for Pgons cause.

Assuming no combat experience for ground units, they may lay down arms at the first sight of blood.

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I would imagine their parade skills are on point. Other combat skills, probably not so much.

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Some of the VDV units they have stationed there might be okay but the Rosguardia units I wouldn't bet my life on.

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Definitely some light skirmishing so far but I will also say I am pleasantly surprised at how little real fighting we have seen. Both Rostov and Voronezh pretty much rolled over and displayed their bellies. Of course it can be said the Federalists had no real forces in place which is largely true it looks like but at least some individual small units have literally just sat there and watched Wagner take over.

This is not a peaceful rebellion but aside from some limited CAS missions and very light skirmishing on the fringes little resistance is being put up. The Federalists should have turned M4 highway into the next Highway of Death on paper but….they haven't. Everyone is looking at Wagner right now. I'm looking at the Feds and how they are responding. Getting caught flat footed is one thing but it's like they are not really trying. A LOT of guesses as to why of course. Reliability of units being the most intriguing.

This article is from December and is even more pertinent today. Who will the various armed factions support?

"Different factions within the government," he said, "will fight for the power [to rule] because evidently the competition between clans will increase … because they have a lot of weapons now. Even criminals have weapons. Chechens have weapons. Internal Ministry has weapons. The Defense Ministry has weapons. KGB the FSB have weapons. Everybody has weapons."

CIVIL WAR

PJYoung said:

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No immediate confirmation from the Kremlin or Prigozhin.

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023

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Already shot down by the Wagner boss.

Ah, yes, the plan

— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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txags92 said:

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ReturnOfTheAg said:

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txags92 said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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twk said:

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

---

If the Russian supply lines from Rostov are cut, and as important as they are said to be, the Ukes just need to wait for the Russians to run out of food.

It would be folly for the Ukranians to lose personnel and military vehicles fighting some people who may decide to walk home within a week.

---

The other side to that is if Wagner captures control rapidly, and reopens the supply lines and begins to press in Ukraine again, with more competent and brutal military leadership in charge. You will have missed the window to attack while the orcs are confused and demoralized.

---

I don't see how the Russian military in whatever form can reconstitute it's forces to fight more effectively.

Prigozhin himself has said over and over again that this is a fruitless war and that it's unwinnable.

---

I think he initially touted the party line about Ukraine, but has since realized how pointless the war is if they don't gain control of all of Ukraine. Will be interesting to see how he sells ending the war to the Russian public if he is able to get rid of Putin.

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One thing we know for certain is that Prigozhin is not bullish on a conflict with NATO.

Wagner has fought US troops in Syria, and gotten their clock cleaned multiple times.

Whatever happens, I think that rhetoric cools off if he has an increased voice.

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He's already said he wants to continue the Ukraine conflict. Just wants to remove the incompetent Russian military leadership.

Prigozhin says it's over:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023

BREAKING: Prigozhin says that his forces came within 200 kilometers of Moscow to avoid the dismantling of Wagner, will now turn back the convoys to avoid the spilling of Russian blood.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) June 24, 2023

He's a fool to trust any deal from anyone in Russia.

Lol!

AgBQ-00 said:

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What??!!?? This is like some after school meet me behind the gym fight now?

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He's going to be scapegoated for any Uke success in the next week or so because of this.

Ooops

Jimmy_the_gent said:

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PJYoung said:

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BREAKING: Prigozhin says that his forces came within 200 kilometers of Moscow to avoid the dismantling of Wagner, will now turn back the convoys to avoid the spilling of Russian blood.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) June 24, 2023

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What is he getting in return for going back or standing down?

From face value, it seems like a terrible unilateral move.

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You have to think he was either presented with 3 scenarios from Lukaschenko and Putin

1. Continue and all of you will die (didn't experience a mass revolt he expected)
2. Made a deal that Shoigu and Gerasimov would be removed
3. He chickened out

Well, that de-escalated quickly

wessimo said:

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Well, that de-escalated quickly

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Not yet, there are claims his own PMC is "revolting" (perhaps unrest is a better word).

Well heck. This is disappointing.

ReturnOfTheAg said:

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Jimmy_the_gent said:

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PJYoung said:

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BREAKING: Prigozhin says that his forces came within 200 kilometers of Moscow to avoid the dismantling of Wagner, will now turn back the convoys to avoid the spilling of Russian blood.

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) June 24, 2023

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What is he getting in return for going back or standing down?

From face value, it seems like a terrible unilateral move.

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You have to think he was either presented with 3 scenarios from Lukaschenko and Putin

1. Continue and all of you will die (didn't experience a mass revolt he expected)
2. Made a deal that Shoigu and Gerasimov would be removed
3. He chickened out

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BREAKING: Reports there will be major changes in Russian Ministry of Defense leadership in exchange for Wagner halting its advance on Moscow

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) June 24, 2023

So bizarre. If Prigozhin is really standing down he's a dead man walking. And he'll lose any momentum he had to get support. Maybe he knew it was hopeless after some people didn't commit or backed out...who knows yet what the real truth there is.

Whatever is going on,I don't believe this "peace" is sustainable. We've long past the point of no return. Anything but the elimination of Wagner makes Putin look unsurvivably weak. Anything but seizing power means Prigozhin is a dead man.