PJYoung said:

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FireAg said:

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Would Vlad nuke his own land in a last ditch attempt to retain power?

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There is talk that Wagner has already gained control of some nukes around Rostov.

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Telegram? I haven't seen anything on the reputable OSINT side on that.

aezmvp said:

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PJYoung said:

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FireAg said:

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Would Vlad nuke his own land in a last ditch attempt to retain power?

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There is talk that Wagner has already gained control of some nukes around Rostov.

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Telegram? I haven't seen anything on the reputable OSINT side on that.

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I misspoke, there is talk they are preparing to gain control of nukes, whatever that means. Big difference.

PJYoung said:

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aezmvp said:

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PJYoung said:

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FireAg said:

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Would Vlad nuke his own land in a last ditch attempt to retain power?

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There is talk that Wagner has already gained control of some nukes around Rostov.

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Telegram? I haven't seen anything on the reputable OSINT side on that.

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I misspoke, there is talk they are preparing to gain control of nukes, whatever that means. Big difference.

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I mean, basically the whole area rolled over. I wouldn't be surprised if they had control of a stockpile. But using them is a whole different thing. Good bargaining chip if things don't go your way though.

more and more evidence of a river crossing in kherson, still early but this could bypass the defenses ...
just remember who called it.

and most of the forces were shifted weeks ago,,, pic.twitter.com/AgqOmMGjRH

— david D. (@secretsqrl123) June 24, 2023

Rumors that Ukraine is starting a bridge head south of Kherson. Saw a Russian milblogger post saying the same thing, but can't find it right now.

twk said:

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

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If the Russian supply lines from Rostov are cut, and as important as they are said to be, the Ukes just need to wait for the Russians to run out of food.

It would be folly for the Ukranians to lose personnel and military vehicles fighting some people who may decide to walk home within a week.

Minimal Russian entrenched areas all the way east to Melitopol and south to Crimea. Risk is will have to maintain the crossing for supplies and will be exposed to air/missile attack.

At what point does Vlad seek political asylum and where?

Russian channels are reporting that Ukrainian units have crossed the Dnipro river and fights are ongoing near the destroyed Antonivskyi bridge.

"The enemy has already transferred 3 tanks with the help of a ferry." pic.twitter.com/DXfYu7n6Wr

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 24, 2023

YokelRidesAgain said:

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twk said:

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I would imagine that they want to allow some time for the news to spread and for the Russian units in the front line to contemplate their next move. As long as the Russians are preoccupied with internal politics and not taking advantage of a pause to resupply, then it seems that the Ukrainians have nothing to lose by waiting. As Napoleon once said, "Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake."

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If the Russian supply lines from Rostov are cut, and as important as they are said to be, the Ukes just need to wait for the Russians to run out of food.

It would be folly for the Ukranians to lose personnel and military vehicles fighting some people who may decide to walk home within a week.

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Honestly think it's a coin flip on good idea or nah to keep pushing. Sit tight and wait for Russia to dissolve. Sure. But if Wagner fails and fast Ukes may have missed out on the best opportunity to capitalize on the chaos. It will be a hindsight 20/20 decision at the end I believe. My own first thoughts are to be limited advances. More to solidify positions and test cohesiveness of the Russians. The world is waiting with bated breath to see what happens in Russia but the frontline situation has other worries they are still facing. This war is not over yet. If nothing else, I would still keep the long distance precision fires going I think. Tough call all around though and still believe only time will tell what is the true right choice.

Hannah Malyar says Ukraine has launched an offensive in the east today in several directions, and there’s “progress” in all: https://t.co/vbPye7miSy

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) June 24, 2023

Not a Bot said:

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Minimal Russian entrenched areas all the way east to Melitopol and south to Crimea. Risk is will have to maintain the crossing for supplies and will be exposed to air/missile attack.

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Agreed. But Russia probably doesn't have the command and control to actually stop it anymore.

Gordo14 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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Minimal Russian entrenched areas all the way east to Melitopol and south to Crimea. Risk is will have to maintain the crossing for supplies and will be exposed to air/missile attack.

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Agreed. But Russia probably doesn't have the command and control to actually stop it anymore.

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If any back channels exist, it would be a really good time to just ask the Russians if they want to still be there.

Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin? Or sit back and wait?

The Russians are going through a coup and potential civil war because they may have tried to kill Wagner.

Definitely sit and wait.

Seldom have I seen anything this surreal.
Tanks on streets, snipers kneeling waiting for the imminent arrival of the Chechen units in what may be one hell of a battle.

And the people of #Rostov seem to be blissfully unaware or determined not to move from their front row seats! pic.twitter.com/GQKJMx9EAi

— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) June 24, 2023

JFABNRGR said:

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Should a firefight occur in moscow, do the military units tasked with protecting moscow and the high command have any real combat experience?

Obviously the aircrews are combat experienced but given the losses of their comrades may find some empathy for Pgons cause.

Assuming no combat experience for ground units, they may lay down arms at the first sight of blood.

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I would imagine their parade skills are on point. Other combat skills, probably not so much.

aggiehawg said:

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Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin?

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Zero percent chance.

There would likely be more people from the FSB and Police Forces than their actual military if I were to guess

amercer said:

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Gordo14 said:

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Not a Bot said:

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Minimal Russian entrenched areas all the way east to Melitopol and south to Crimea. Risk is will have to maintain the crossing for supplies and will be exposed to air/missile attack.

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Agreed. But Russia probably doesn't have the command and control to actually stop it anymore.

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If any back channels exist, it would be a really good time to just ask the Russians if they want to still be there.

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Back channels absolutely exist. At the very least General Budanov of Uke IS has had at least some limited comms with Prigozihn in the past during the fight in Bakhmut. Budanov is generally accepted as being very good at his job and I can't help but wonder how much Ukraine knew about this move and what, if any, role they may have played. Even if it was just adjusting the fighting pace at times.

Uke offensives seem to still be pushing in certain areas and I tend to think it is a good decision. Russia falling to pieces is cool and all but armed and hostile Russian forces still sit in Uke territory. That is still a glaring fact to Ukraine. Priority is still evict the Russians and the sooner the better. Opportunity to try to take advantage of the political chaos and how it may be affecting Russian frontline is too good to not at least test in certain areas IMO. But who knows how it will all play it in the end. Coin flip. I just think Uke generals still have their job to do and they will remain focused on it and not sit back and wait for events they have no control over play out. Kick your enemy when they are down, may not get a second chance later.

Maybe it is just me....but I have a suspicion that wherever Putin is reported to be.....he ain't.

aggiehawg said:

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Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin? Or sit back and wait?

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IMO JCJS has to back channel to Russian military to guarantee territorial security vis-a-vis China.

China is a much bigger threat to seize territory in Russia that previously belonged to China.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Any guesses as to what China does here? Do they send troops to assist Putin?

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Zero percent chance.

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If anything they will try to reclaim the Qing territories including Mongolia, Haishanwai (Vladivostok area) and Tannu Tuva.

txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Should a firefight occur in moscow, do the military units tasked with protecting moscow and the high command have any real combat experience?

Obviously the aircrews are combat experienced but given the losses of their comrades may find some empathy for Pgons cause.

Assuming no combat experience for ground units, they may lay down arms at the first sight of blood.

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I would imagine their parade skills are on point. Other combat skills, probably not so much.

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Some of the VDV units they have stationed there might be okay but the Rosguardia units I wouldn't bet my life on.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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The Russians are going through a coup and potential civil war because they may have tried to kill Wagner.

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Thar part seemed staged. Wagner has been planning this for many months.

I'm interested in artillery pacing in Ukraine from Orcs. I want to know if they are proceeding with any offensive operations.

PJYoung said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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The Russians are going through a coup and potential civil war because they may have tried to kill Wagner.

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Thar part seemed staged. Wagner has been planning this for many months.

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Hence the, "may." I'm pretty sure it was staged, but you never know