***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,037,806 Views | 48647 Replies | Last: 36 min ago by txags92
the_batman26
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Didn't Twitter circulate video game footage of something similar last year? Passing it off as combat footage?
FCBlitz
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If the Wagner group is truly 25,000 strong then this event will last awhile. If he has dedicated disciples, then even if the leader is arrested or killed, the push back will continue. Russia may not be able to handle a 2 front war.
ABATTBQ11
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the_batman26 said:

Didn't Twitter circulate video game footage of something similar last year? Passing it off as combat footage?


That's definitely not video game footage.
the_batman26
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I said last year. Twitter will believe anything.
knj2417
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Sooo, was wagner embezzling munitions that russia was giving them while in bakmut, stockpiling for this very moment? Russia found out about it, stop providing munitions and here we are?
JFABNRGR
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I will take 3 helos over Rostov than in range of Uke armor.



Supposed footage of wagner column moving towars Rostov.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hfoo5/another_video_with_a_column_of_pmc_wagner/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
ABATTBQ11
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the_batman26 said:

I said last year. Twitter will believe anything.


Yeah, but this is definitely real. Too many posts from Prigozhin and Russian generals and now looking like footage confirming Wagner is on the move. To top it off, Moscow is officially being locked down. This looks like Russia is having itself a little side****show and could be headed to civil war depending on how this shakes out in the next couple of days.
lb3
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Eliminatus said:

IOW, use this as an existential crisis to terrorize the populace into asserting him true dictatorial power? Patriot Act to an obscene level.
I think the response would be similar to Erdogan's purges in Turkey following their fake coup.

Except this is a real mutiny and possibly a real coup attempt.
GarryowenAg
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Curious how credible this guy is.
the_batman26
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And there's also the other scenario: nothing really happens and Ukraine finally gets more western eyes on the conflict for donations.
Definitely Not A Cop
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Heard CNN report a heli being shot down.
Eliminatus
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JFABNRGR said:

I will take 3 helos over Rostov than in range of Uke armor.



Supposed footage of wagner column moving towars Rostov.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hfoo5/another_video_with_a_column_of_pmc_wagner/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1
Well, wail, whale......Was curious and did some snooping of my own.

This is Rostov traffic map as of about 4 minutes ago. Screenshot is my own and matches reports of heavy military trucks being used to physically block the main northeastern approach to the city.

ABATTBQ11
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the_batman26 said:

And there's also the other scenario: nothing really happens and Ukraine finally gets more western eyes on the conflict for donations.


The minimum that happens now is that Wagner gets decimated and takes a ton of Russians with them.
GarryowenAg
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LMCane
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2:20AM
Rostov governor tells civilians to stay indoors
The governor of southern Russia's Rostov region told residents to remain calm and stay indoors.

"Law enforcement agencies are doing everything necessary to ensure the safety of residents of the area. I ask everyone to stay calm and not to leave home unless necessary," Vassily Golubev said in a message on his Telegram channel just before 4am (2am BST).

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had said his forces had crossed from Ukraine into the Rostov region.

Mr Golubev's message did not say whether Prigozhin had entered Rostov.
LMCane
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1:38AM
Russia accuses Prigozhin of 'stab in the back'
Vladimir Putin has been informed by Russia's prosecutor general of an attempt by the Wagner mercenary group to stage an armed insurrection, the Kremlin announced on Saturday morning

"The Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation (Igor) Krasnov reported to Putin about the initiation of a criminal case in connection with an attempt to organise an armed rebellion," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

In a statement, Russia's security service, the FSB, said: "Prigozhin's statements and actions are in fact a call to start an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation and a stab in the back to Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces."
FriscoKid
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I really hope this is organic and internal pressures are causing this revolt. If our state department is involved then it's going to end badly. (R or D in charge, this is not political)

I hope people there have decided to end this.
LMCane
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chris1515 said:

I wonder if Ukraine has a billion dollars just laying around they could use to tempt the Wagner guys to switch sides, or at least put down their guns and go on vacation someplace.

it seems at this point that most of the Wager PMC is moving towards Moscow so putting down their guns won't help the Ukrainians.

the only question now is who do we want to win: Prigozhin or Putin? I find it hard to believe that there is even enough Russian army resistance to stop Wagner if they really wanted to send their entire force up the highway to Moscow.

what 18 year old conscript is going to die to stop professional Russian mercenaries from going up a road?
LMCane
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FriscoKid said:

I really hope this is organic and internal pressures are causing this revolt. If our state department is involved then it's going to end badly. (R or D in charge, this is not political)

I hope people there have decided to end this.
it's much more complex than that

and I am sure that the US government has nothing to do with anything going on

prigozhin is as bad a killer as anyone in russia

and who knows if he wants to even continue the war but EVEN MORE force being used against NATO

we don't really know, and I doubt the US government knows either
RangerRick9211
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Is this Igor guy legit: https://twitter.com/igorsushko?s=21&t=0zBSut_7DYKDY5Wc9l1ZZw ?

Found him through a Reddit thread. His feed is nails in Rostov if real.
LMCane
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Putin's spokesperson Peskov: general prosecutor has reported to Putin on armed rebellion attempt

PMC Wagner's troops entering Rostov-on-Don, - Prigozhin
FriscoKid
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LMCane said:

chris1515 said:

I wonder if Ukraine has a billion dollars just laying around they could use to tempt the Wagner guys to switch sides, or at least put down their guns and go on vacation someplace.

it seems at this point that most of the Wager PMC is moving towards Moscow so putting down their guns won't help the Ukrainians.

the only question now is who do we want to win: Prigozhin or Putin? I find it hard to believe that there is even enough Russian army resistance to stop Wagner if they really wanted to send their entire force up the highway to Moscow.

what 18 year old conscript is going to die to stop professional Russian mercenaries from going up a road?

If this is really organic then I bet a fair amount of conscripts will side with Wagner so they don't die against western weapons. A caged tiger is dangerous though.

NATO (and Eastern Europe) has to be on high alert at this moment though. If Russia does something stupid then every single target inside Russia is probably going to be gone in a couple hours.

This is really a turning point in the war.
LMCane
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2:47AM
Moscow officials tighten security
Russian authorities in the Lipetsk region south of Moscow said they have tightened security measures after the chief of mercenary group Wagner said his forces had crossed the border from Ukraine.

"A decision has been taken to reinforce security measures in the region," said Governor Igor Artamonov.

"I ask everyone to remain calm."

The region of Lipetsk is located about 400 kilometres (250 miles) south of Moscow.
Capstone
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LMCane
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FriscoKid said:

LMCane said:

chris1515 said:

I wonder if Ukraine has a billion dollars just laying around they could use to tempt the Wagner guys to switch sides, or at least put down their guns and go on vacation someplace.

it seems at this point that most of the Wager PMC is moving towards Moscow so putting down their guns won't help the Ukrainians.

the only question now is who do we want to win: Prigozhin or Putin? I find it hard to believe that there is even enough Russian army resistance to stop Wagner if they really wanted to send their entire force up the highway to Moscow.

what 18 year old conscript is going to die to stop professional Russian mercenaries from going up a road?

If this is really organic then I bet a fair amount of conscripts will side with Wagner so they don't die against western weapons. A caged tiger is dangerous though.

NATO (and Eastern Europe) has to be on high alert at this moment though. If Russia does something stupid then every single target inside Russia is probably going to be gone in a couple hours.

This is really a turning point in the war.

Well Wagner has all Russian weapons and equipment so not sure about your first sentence. Wagner is one of the more bestial and murderous groups on the planet, committing war crimes all over the world from Syria to Ukraine to Africa

so the best case scenario for the US is likely a massive civil war in Russia that kills off most of their fighting age men and destroys much of their military. meanwhile I am sure the Ukrainians are getting ready to launch even larger assaults this week.
LMCane
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Capstone said:


well that's pretty interesting considering it is still night right now in Rostov- unless that is literally happening right now at daybreak.


not sure what conquering Rostov would even do to help Prigozhin, he needs to take Moscow and Putin or else he is eventually dead man walking.
Who?mikejones!
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Ukraine had better take advantage of this. Wagner doesn't seem to want to stop the war. They claim they are going to kick out the russian military
leadership and then return to the front.

Ukraine should be causing as much chaos for both Russia and Wagner as they can. If Wagner was holding a spot on the line, Ukraine should consolidate and attempt to break through

But, chaos is vital for Ukraine to create and then exploit. Pressure pressure pressure
the_batman26
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He may just want this region as a negotiating tool.
Pepe SiIvia
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LMCane said:

Capstone said:


well that's pretty interesting considering it is still the middle of the night right now in Rostov

so either that was hours ago during daylight or false propaganda.

not sure what conquering Rostov would even do to help Prigozhin, he needs to take Moscow and Putin or else he is eventually dead man walking.
It's 5:13 AM there and a Google search says that the sun rises at 4:26.
TRM
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It's 5:14 am there and sunrise is at 4:26 am
LMCane
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the_batman26 said:

He may just want this region as a negotiating tool.
understood- but what is he going to negotiate

eventually if he doesn't win, he is dead. so not sure trading Rostov for Gerasimov is going to help Prigozhin long term.

already they are calling this a coup and a stab in the back in the Russian media.
Who?mikejones!
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Pepe SiIvia said:

LMCane said:

Capstone said:


well that's pretty interesting considering it is still the middle of the night right now in Rostov

so either that was hours ago during daylight or false propaganda.

not sure what conquering Rostov would even do to help Prigozhin, he needs to take Moscow and Putin or else he is eventually dead man walking.
It's 5:13 AM there and a Google search says that the sun rises at 4:45.


DapperDanMan
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It's 5:15 and sunrise was at least an hour ago.
Slava Ukraini!
LMCane
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TRM said:

It's 5:14 am there and sunrise is at 4:26 am
exactly which was my comment is that has to be a simultaneous post exactly as it's happening or done hours ago.

either way, Rostov on the Don is likely too far from Moscow to allow Prigozhin to get there in one piece

unless the Russian army refuses orders to bomb him or block the roads.

still and all, Putin probably regretting some of his decisions the last year in Ukraine right now.
PJYoung
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