Russian channel DONTSTOPWAR reports that a 50km long Wagner-column has crossed the Novoshakhtinskaya border checkpoint into Russia reportedly heading for Novocherkassk (towards Rostov-on-Don).

The column itself has not yet been visually confirmed. pic.twitter.com/Bx7ciFI1kF

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 23, 2023

Seems unlikely, but.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated

Great source for Russian translations on telegram - including Igor Girkin who called it a coup earlier.

FriscoKid said:

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Russian channel DONTSTOPWAR reports that a 50km long Wagner-column has crossed the Novoshakhtinskaya border checkpoint into Russia reportedly heading for Novocherkassk (towards Rostov-on-Don).

The column itself has not yet been visually confirmed. pic.twitter.com/Bx7ciFI1kF

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 23, 2023

Seems unlikely, but.

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He seems to confirm that columns are moving.

Surovikin appears to confirm Wagner is moving-

"It needs to be done before it’s too late: to obey the will and order of the people-elected President of the Russian Federation. Stop the columns, and return them to their permanent positions and places of concentration." https://t.co/zzVJs1J9Bp

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 23, 2023

I wonder if Ukraine has a billion dollars just laying around they could use to tempt the Wagner guys to switch sides, or at least put down their guns and go on vacation someplace.

Gordo14 said:

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And now Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev the First Deputy Chief of what was formally known as the GRU, pic.twitter.com/0XIedEStcn

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) June 23, 2023

Another general... they wouldn't be filming and posting videos at midnight if everything was under control.

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Another incredible clip. This is serious. Thanks @maxseddon for posting. https://t.co/7ey53lPwUd

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) June 23, 2023

Madness!

Awesome!

And all highly entertaining!!!

PJYoung said:

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Gordo14 said:

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And now Vladimir Stepanovich Alekseev the First Deputy Chief of what was formally known as the GRU, pic.twitter.com/0XIedEStcn

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) June 23, 2023

Another general... they wouldn't be filming and posting videos at midnight if everything was under control.

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Another incredible clip. This is serious. Thanks @maxseddon for posting. https://t.co/7ey53lPwUd

— Michael McFaul (@McFaul) June 23, 2023

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Interesting that they are all filming these with plain white walls behind them with nothing to give any indication of where they might be...in case somebody friendly to Wagner might be out there looking for them.

My skepticism is melting rapidly. Will be interesting to see this unfold the next few days.

Surovikin is sitting in an office with a rifle in his lap. If it's a tough guy act, it will just piss off Wagner or make him look like he's scared of his own shadow.

Bad optics for him.

Been trying to follow this last 48 hours and you know, provide some worth to my employers at the same time. I have been trying to figure out a psyop angle but at this point, nothing makes sense anymore. The actually only really feasible thing left in my mind is that this is real at its base level. It is literally the simplest explanation at this point IMO. I was trying to spin theories in my mind a couple of days ago, even to the point of helping Putin find an offramp by having Prigozhin and Shoigu fight it out. The old "My military failed me and can't be trusted so must withdraw now" gambit. But this is too much I think at this juncture to be a pure ploy. Could be wrong of course but man are they selling it if so.

There have absolutely been several incidents between the two over the last few months. I have been following the Wagner group probably the closest out of all the topics so far in this war as the whole idea of that particular PMC fascinates me. This whole thing has been wild over the last few days. Haven't been this glued to the screen since the initial invasion. Have all sorts of ideas but ultimately we on the sidelines just have to wait and see what happens.

Probably where the government "miscalculated" how much they've given

Lots of smoke of impending Russian Civil war.

Haven't checked any news today and, bam, Russia is fighting Wagner, allegedly

Russian TV stations hacked and now broadcasting Prigozhin's address to the Russian people.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14h9srq/russian_telegram_channels_report_that_tv_channels/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

BREAKING: Russian state media confirms security forces in Moscow on high alert, all important locations being protected

— BNO News (@BNONews) June 23, 2023

Unless Prigozhin gets somebody else on his side this will be a short "coup". Instead he and his men will be put down as dogs of war that went stray.

I also don't think this really started out as any intent to start a coup. But it may end up that way if he sees it as his only option to stay alive.

FriscoKid said:

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Russian channel DONTSTOPWAR reports that a 50km long Wagner-column has crossed the Novoshakhtinskaya border checkpoint into Russia reportedly heading for Novocherkassk (towards Rostov-on-Don).

The column itself has not yet been visually confirmed. pic.twitter.com/Bx7ciFI1kF

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 23, 2023

Seems unlikely, but.

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A group of (presumably Rosgvardia) vehicles (1x MRAP, 1x Ural 4320, 1x BTR-82A, 1x Ural APC) were spotted moving outside of Ustyinsky Park near the Kremlin. pic.twitter.com/frbd2px085

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 23, 2023

Russia sure looks convinced something is going down

Here's a all-in-one roundup of what we know at the moment,

COUP?

So what is the end game here? What outcome will this war be similar to?

Korea
War of Northern Aggression
Persia vs. Sparta
Stalemate with Ukraine losing territory and an enforced DMZ

Could this be similar to the end of ww1? I realize the social pressure isn't necessarily the same but could it get there?

MaroonStain said:

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So what is the end game here? What outcome will this war be similar to?

Korea
War of Northern Aggression
Persia vs. Sparta
Stalemate with Ukraine losing territory and an enforced DMZ

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If this continues spiraling, don't underestimate the possibility that Russia will lose it's force projection abilities in Russia, let alone Ukraine.

I think the most likely is Russia keeping crimea and some slivers of eastern Ukraine and then Ukraine joining nato with heavy nato military presence permanently in Ukraine.

You're probably right. I just don't see a path to closure that doesn't include Russia getting bigger and Ukraine getting smaller. Do you see a path on that alternative route? What is it?

If you are the Ukes, how long do you let this play before really putting the screws on the front?

If Ukes are to truly capitalize they would follow/join the group and use combined arms against their former teammates.

Immediately, imo, once you confirm the validity of this coup attempt. No telling how long it will last, but, any distraction could prove to be the edge Ukraine could exploit.

Especially push in areas where Wagner has been waging a significant portion of the fight.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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You're probably right. I just don't see a path to closure that doesn't include Russia getting bigger and Ukraine getting smaller. Do you see a path on that alternative route? What is it?

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If the ukes can break through in the next month or so and then commit the bulk of their force there's a chance Russias house of cards in Ukraine falls quickly. At that point even Crimea is on the table for the ukes. But that's a tall order without air superiority.

Quote:

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But that's a tall order without air superiority.

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Pardon my ignorance here but who is going to order the aircraft to be in the air? I mean given their top down organization?

The ukes don't have enough effective aircraft to put in the air, much less worry about who commands them.

jobu93 said:

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If you are the Ukes, how long do you let this play before really putting the screws on the front?

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All the way. Don't give them a reason to be friends again while consolidating and planning. Hit what rear areas you can and take the extra time to shape the battlefield further. When it looks like there's a clear cut winner, hit them hard.

Do we back channel assist Wagner?