Teslag said:

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The ukes don't have enough effective aircraft to put in the air, much less worry about who commands them.

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I was talking about the Russians.

Teslag said:

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The ukes don't have enough effective aircraft to put in the air, much less worry about who commands them.

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Oh. Good to know.

javajaws said:

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Unless Prigozhin gets somebody else on his side this will be a short "coup". Instead he and his men will be put down as dogs of war that went stray.

I also don't think this really started out as any intent to start a coup. But it may end up that way if he sees it as his only option to stay alive.

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He is an Ol' Yeller! LOL

No

jobu93 said:

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If you are the Ukes, how long do you let this play before really putting the screws on the front?

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This is what I'm thinking. Now is the time to take advantage of a crisis

javajaws said:

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Unless Prigozhin gets somebody else on his side this will be a short "coup". Instead he and his men will be put down as dogs of war that went stray.

I also don't think this really started out as any intent to start a coup. But it may end up that way if he sees it as his only option to stay alive.

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Prigozhin's only hope in my opinion is to assassinate Surovikin, pledge his allegiance to Putin, and return to Ukraine.

If he tries to make this a coup, he won't live long.

Teslag said:

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Do we back channel assist Wagner?

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That didn't work so well with Afghani's and others.

aggiehawg said:

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Teslag said:

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The ukes don't have enough effective aircraft to put in the air, much less worry about who commands them.

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I was talking about the Russians.

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Russians don't need aircraft to deny air superiority. Both sides are doing it with SAMs.

SPF250 said:

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Teslag said:

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Do we back channel assist Wagner?

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That didn't work so well with Afghani's and others.

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It usually works well in regards to the military objective. We just have an less than outstanding record of effin' up the peace.

Russia is effectively using alligators against uke tanks. Someone is commanding those aircraft.

Russian MOD- "Taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation to disorganize the situation, the Kyiv regime in the Bakhmut tactical direction is concentrating units of the 35th and the 36th brigade of the Marine Corps on the starting lines for offensive operations." pic.twitter.com/FAU63U5gZ5

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 23, 2023

Ukes gonna try to take bakhmut back?

FriscoKid said:

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https://twitter.com/stateo***raine/status/1672371548529852416

The war might be over in a day if this keeps up.

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Page gone. What did it say?

ETA: Sorry, did not see your edit.

PMC Wagner's troops entering Rostov-on-Don, - Prigozhin https://t.co/w2ZhVMOE4s

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 23, 2023

We are entering the most dangerous moments in the history

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 23, 2023

Russian military conducted missile strikes and helicopter strikes at Wargner's bases, we've crossed state border and entering Rostov, we will kill everyone on the our way, - Prigozhin (02:04, 10 minutes ago) pic.twitter.com/FkzfSVDnXm

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 23, 2023

.

PlaneCrashGuy said:

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You're probably right. I just don't see a path to closure that doesn't include Russia getting bigger and Ukraine getting smaller. Do you see a path on that alternative route? What is it?

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There's a 100 of them. A lot more than Russia suddenly getting their **** together, overcoming corruption, and all singing kumbayah and taking Ukraine together.

🚨 Russian spetsnaz is raiding the Wagner Center in downtown Saint Petersburg right now. Local time is almost midnight. pic.twitter.com/kgpHb4Ctpm

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 23, 2023

Go back to the first 6 months of the war. Phrigozhin was never in combat theatre and rarely in fatigues. Then a few months ago he pissed Putin off, or Putin wanted his wife and now he is not only in theatre he is carrying a weapon. We never see him back in russia again. Hes been outcasted. Maybe he was given an ultimatum take Bakhmut and you get pardoned.

During this time period he gets to experience exactly the issues his battle field commanders had been complaining about. He argues to rectify with russian MOD but gets the cold shoulder while he continues burying his troops.

Now hes been galvanized to support his own troops but the russian army as well blaming MOD for all the failures. This is not the first time in military history field commanders have turned on higher authority. They ****ed up when they missed him in the missile strike and I suspect he was recalled but surmised he would fall off a balcony so he didn't return.

The damage has been done. He has outed atrocities all the way back to 2014. Wagner has been attacked by their own. More damage is coming and it doesn't matter if KA52s annihilate his force before he gets anywhere near MOD or he gets some revenge. This is going to create mistrust across russia.

There are reports on reddit that hackers have broke into russian state tv playing Pgon rants.

The Gulag Archipelago is about to repeat itself.

Slava Ukraine

Watching Chechnya…

JFABNRGR said:

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Go back to the first 6 months of the war. Phrigozhin was never in combat theatre and rarely in fatigues. Then a few months ago he pissed Putin off, or Putin wanted his wife and now he is not only in theatre he is carrying a weapon. We never see him back in russia again. Hes been outcasted. Maybe he was given an ultimatum take Bakhmut and you get pardoned.

During this time period he gets to experience exactly the issues his battle field commanders had been complaining about. He argues to rectify with russian MOD but gets the cold shoulder while he continues burying his troops.

Now hes been galvanized to support his own troops but the russian army as well blaming MOD for all the failures. This is not the first time in military history field commanders have turned on higher authority. They ****ed up when they missed him in the missile strike and I suspect he was recalled but surmised he would fall off a balcony so he didn't return.

The damage has been done. He has outed atrocities all the way back to 2014. Wagner has been attacked by their own. More damage is coming and it doesn't matter if KA52s annihilate his force before he gets anywhere near MOD or he gets some revenge. This is going to create mistrust across russia.

There are reports on reddit that hackers have broke into russian state tv playing Pgon rants.

The Gulag Archipelago is about to repeat itself.

Slava Ukraine

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One thing I think a lot of people overlook or forget is that Prigozhin did not come up the military ranks. He was a caterer that made the right friends at the right time and somehow became head of one of the most infamous PMC groups to have existed.

It is likely he is probably a lunatic in the end but one thing I have never doubted is that I do believe he actually gives a damn about the men he leads. He does not have the institutionally grown ability to disregard losses as "acceptable" losses I do not think. He is also not a stupid man and has seen first hand how badly the Russian meatgrinder is. And not much bonds closer than intense combat and shared misery. Yeah, he may not have been in the trenches fighting but he was still close enough to see and smell the aftermath. It has to suck to see men you know in the group you are part of get torn to pieces over and over. Especially if you are in charge of them. I think it probable that no matter his beginnings, he embraced Wagner and its fighters and made them his own. It actually may have led him to feel more like a spiritual father of sorts instead of a commanding senior officer. I also do not doubt he is very popular with his men.

I think his rage is probably genuine. And there is certainly significant precedent for this occurrence. Russian heads of states have ALWAYS feared popular generals/leaders of men. The Russian officer purges pre WW2 are downright legendary and even General Zhukov, the extremely popular man who probably was the single most important instrument in defeating Nazi Germany, had an very turbulent career afterwards (worth a deep dive itself) and likely survived only because he was such an important figurehead for Russia (and also Stalin died).

Would not be the first time a nation has faced a rogue military leader..

ETA: All that to say that this is what started this path from the beginning.

Can you imagine what is going through the Russian conscript's mind right now? Taking heavy casualties, now this. His poor morale is finding a new low. What does his will to fight look like now.

Russian television is reporting in a special 'emergency' broadcast about the Prigozhin armed rebellion. FSB asks Wagner soldiers to not take part in this rebellion and take Prigozhin into custody.

This IS happening.

source: https://t.co/He4wkcyUM6

2/X pic.twitter.com/SjERhIoRiC

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) June 23, 2023

I imagine those conscripts are only told limited info on anything

hockeyag said:

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Can you imagine what is going through the Russian conscript's mind right now? Taking heavy casualties, now this. His poor morale is finding a new low. What does his will to fight look like now.

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New-ish reports that at least one Russian unit is refusing to move into blocking positions. I know it is easy to scoff at the thought of a coup, especially in such an early stage of what may be one, but active duty troops not obeying established senior command is absolutely a hallmark of one, if this whole thing is real. The second emergence of Napoleon is a screaming example of it.

Trying my best to stay objective and clear minded in this event but man....getting hard to not hope that this has legs to it after all. I just really have trouble seeing Russia going to this length for a psyop.



Also, just thinking out loud here, what are the possible outcomes of this if this is truly happening? Best case for the western world is Russian command tears itself apart and a little to a lot of anarchy and Putins government collapses. Worst case scenario, Prigozhin is easily squashed and Putin uses this event as a way cement his power and unite the Russians in a way that he could only dream of before? IOW, use this as an existential crisis to terrorize the populace into asserting him true dictatorial power? Patriot Act to an obscene level.

Video of clashes between Wagner and Russian troops in Rostov region pic.twitter.com/dSCiLmetav

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 24, 2023

There are reports (impossible to confirm) that troops that are being called up by the Ministry of Interior and Rosgvardia to confront Wagner are not showing up in full force

Important to remember that it’s Russia and it’s late Friday night there. Many are likely out partying…

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) June 24, 2023

I'm sure their superiors are trying to limit information. But this type of information is going to bypass official channels even without Ukrainian help.

⚡️Wagner boss says his troops have entered Russia's Rostov Oblast, claims shooting down helicopter.

Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that his fighters have entered Russia's southern Rostov Oblast and that they shot down a helicopter that fired on a "civilian column."

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 24, 2023

PJYoung said:

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Video of clashes between Wagner and Russian troops in Rostov region pic.twitter.com/dSCiLmetav

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) June 24, 2023

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Dear Lord let this be the first of many in russia. The pains of a new More civil regime and the beginning of the end of russian occupation and war in Ukraine.

I am sure he is popular with his troops. The key factor will be how far that admiration extends into the Russian military. He is likely preaching a popular message to them about the stupidity of their leaders wasting their lives.

Vid of manpad being shot towards sound of helo. Title says shot down but I don't see evidence of that nor do i think it matters. If wagner fired on a helo its happening.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14hfaev/russian_helicopter_being_shot_at_in_rostov/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=1&utm_term=1

Allegedly from Rostov. https://t.co/pvjUgkWExp pic.twitter.com/bMyqFVs3Ty

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_aba) June 24, 2023