***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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LMCane
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:56a, 3/27/23
For the Armor guys-

I can understand why CURRENTLY in Ukraine you have to stay on the roads due to rasputitsa

but at that European training center in these videos, wouldn't it make much more sense to have 100 IFVs coming across the fields and spread out

than all bunched in one single line along a small road?

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MouthBQ98
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In reply to LMCane • 11:01a, 3/27/23
AG
Depends on what they are practicing. If you've already broken through then you sure as heck use the roads to penetrate to objectives as quickly as possible. The enemy won't mine their own logistical support routes in rear areas.

Also, Europe doesn't have big bases we can just tear up the terrain with vehicles to practice.
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AgLA06
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 11:02a, 3/27/23
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Depends on what they are practicing. If you've already broken through then you sure as heck use the roads to penetrate to objectives as quickly as possible. The enemy won't mine their own logistical support routes in rear areas.

Also, Europe doesn't have big bases we can just tear up the terrain with vehicles to practice.
And are in a lot of cases a lot more environmentally minded / friendly. Which goes against this kind of thing.

Seems like England should have a bunch of abandoned bases from WW2 that could be used.
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nortex97
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:20a, 3/27/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
MouthBQ98 said:
Depends on what they are practicing. If you've already broken through then you sure as heck use the roads to penetrate to objectives as quickly as possible. The enemy won't mine their own logistical support routes in rear areas.

Also, Europe doesn't have big bases we can just tear up the terrain with vehicles to practice.
And are in a lot of cases a lot more environmentally minded / friendly. Which goes against this kind of thing.

Seems like England should have a bunch of abandoned bases from WW2 that could be used.
England, and even moreso countries like Germany have had huge limits on armor training/maneuver spaces/ranges for decades. Even old timers who were stationed there in the 80's (Hohenfels/Munster) would tell stories about limitations around the 'fulda gap' training exercises being frustrating.
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jobu93
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11:24a, 3/27/23
AG
Russians have a lot of men/equip around Bahkmut. Ukes have tied up a lot of resources there.

Ukes tied up a lot of resources last year and "hit em where they aint" and took a tremendous amount of sq. miles back. I don't see why they wouldn't continue doing the same.
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2000AgPhD
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:24a, 3/27/23
AgLA06 said:
Blackbeard94 said:
Holman Jenkins in the WSJ speculated that the Uke offensive would be in Bakhmut. This would take back any territory gained and would give Putin a real black eye.


I imagine they'll keep great opsec like last time and no one will know until it's well underway. Especially if Russia still doesn't have the live feed satellite imaging they didn't at the start of the war.

Militarily it would really hurt Russian capability to cut off and capture / destroy the massive amount of high level troops and equipment in such a small area around Bakhmut.

Bigger picture PR blow to Russia and mucho momentum would be to cut off Crimea.

Of course, it could be something entirely different because they found a weak point somewhere else.



Crimea would be tempting if the Ukrainians felt they had the ability and resources to actually get the job done - talk about a black eye - taking someplace back that has been occupied for going on a decade. Bakhmut is attractive simply because of the bulge, but IMO is not nearly so strategically important and would be a much more limited operation. Not sure the Ukes are there yet WRT Crimea.
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FriscoKid
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11:26a, 3/27/23
AG
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AgLA06
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 11:26a, 3/27/23
AG
I agree.

Also keep in mind war gaming and western leadership told them the same for the Kharkiv offensive. So they're probably going to be willing to lean more towards rolling the dice. Especially since they may never get another chance to roll with an equipment advantage in a combined arms assault like this again.
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twk
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 11:35a, 3/27/23
AG
2000AgPhD said:
AgLA06 said:
Blackbeard94 said:
Holman Jenkins in the WSJ speculated that the Uke offensive would be in Bakhmut. This would take back any territory gained and would give Putin a real black eye.


I imagine they'll keep great opsec like last time and no one will know until it's well underway. Especially if Russia still doesn't have the live feed satellite imaging they didn't at the start of the war.

Militarily it would really hurt Russian capability to cut off and capture / destroy the massive amount of high level troops and equipment in such a small area around Bakhmut.

Bigger picture PR blow to Russia and mucho momentum would be to cut off Crimea.

Of course, it could be something entirely different because they found a weak point somewhere else.



Crimea would be tempting if the Ukrainians felt they had the ability and resources to actually get the job done - talk about a black eye - taking someplace back that has been occupied for going on a decade. Bakhmut is attractive simply because of the bulge, but IMO is not nearly so strategically important and would be a much more limited operation. Not sure the Ukes are there yet WRT Crimea.
If Ukraine is to bring about any kind of acceptable conclusion, they have to, at a minimum, push through to the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut the land bridge. Whether or not that would make the Russians vulnerable enough to roll them up well into Crimea, I don't know. Even if they get past the Isthmus of Perekop, I can't see them taking Sevastopol in a siege, but I don't think they would have to. If they could just get onto the agricultural plain of Crimea, I think that would be enough to get everyone to the table and possibly work something out.
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AgLA06
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In reply to twk • 11:38a, 3/27/23
AG
Russia will never concede anything. That's the problem. They are going to have to take back whatever they want.

If they don't get Crimea they open themselves up to a multi pronged attack again by land.

If they do get Crimea, it's probably even worse strategically because a sea and air based landing on Crimea by Russia wouldn't be difficult.
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Touchless
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1:16p, 3/27/23
AG
This one's a few days old, and definitely NSFW. Mostly drones dropping grenades on Russian troops that have already been hit and ensuring they're dead. Some obviously aren't though. One guy doesn't even have a shirt and takes a pretty direct hit on the back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11yvyki/new_drone_dropping_video_from_ukrainian_adam/
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74OA
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1:18p, 3/27/23
AG
Another unintended consequence of Putin's war. Thanks again, Vlad.

NORDIC
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 2:12p, 3/27/23
Only thing I can figure is the Russians want to have the ukes waste ammunition on this old **** and hope the west can't keep up with demand.

Not much different than sending their inmates as a human wave followed by the better trained troops.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:16p, 3/27/23
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Only thing I can figure is the Russians want to have the ukes waste ammunition on this old **** and hope the west can't keep up with demand.

Not much different than sending their inmates as a human wave followed by the better trained troops.
My initial thought as well.

However, it makes no sense to spend all the money and maintenance and tie up upgrade facilities for the old equipement if that was the case. This truly looks like they have no other choice.
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LMCane
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In reply to Touchless • 3:26p, 3/27/23
Touchless said:
This one's a few days old, and definitely NSFW. Mostly drones dropping grenades on Russian troops that have already been hit and ensuring they're dead. Some obviously aren't though. One guy doesn't even have a shirt and takes a pretty direct hit on the back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11yvyki/new_drone_dropping_video_from_ukrainian_adam/
I'm not into snuff films so fast forwarded some of it-

but it was interesting how little reaction from the Russkies there was.

a grenade goes off next to them and it seems they barely flinched.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to LMCane • 3:33p, 3/27/23
AG
LMCane said:
Touchless said:
This one's a few days old, and definitely NSFW. Mostly drones dropping grenades on Russian troops that have already been hit and ensuring they're dead. Some obviously aren't though. One guy doesn't even have a shirt and takes a pretty direct hit on the back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11yvyki/new_drone_dropping_video_from_ukrainian_adam/
I'm not into snuff films so fast forwarded some of it-

but it was interesting how little reaction from the Russkies there was.

a grenade goes off next to them and it seems they barely flinched.
They were dead so...
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mickeyrig06sq3
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In reply to LMCane • 3:37p, 3/27/23
AG
LMCane said:
but it was interesting how little reaction from the Russkies there was.

a grenade goes off next to them and it seems they barely flinched.
BOHICA mentality. Once it sets in, it's hard to undo. Also dead don't flinch.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 3:56p, 3/27/23
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Only thing I can figure is the Russians want to have the ukes waste ammunition on this old **** and hope the west can't keep up with demand.

Not much different than sending their inmates as a human wave followed by the better trained troops.
The other more obvious answer is that Russia really is scraping the bottom of the barrel and they have no other choice.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to PJYoung • 4:00p, 3/27/23
Yeah, I think that's the only other option. Probably got ww2 vets driving the things.
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PJYoung
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In reply to Touchless • 4:02p, 3/27/23
AG
Touchless said:
This one's a few days old, and definitely NSFW. Mostly drones dropping grenades on Russian troops that have already been hit and ensuring they're dead. Some obviously aren't though. One guy doesn't even have a shirt and takes a pretty direct hit on the back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11yvyki/new_drone_dropping_video_from_ukrainian_adam/
That one was extremely brutal. Nasty stuff.
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Ag97
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4:04p, 3/27/23
AG
That one guy that crawled out of the trench and just stared at the drone was brutal. Like he had just given up and was waiting for the drone to come put him out of his misery. No emotion, just utter despair and surrender to whatever happens next. What a horrible way to end up.

I hope cooler heads prevail and take power and turn this thing around. I'd hate to have this morph into WW3 and my sons have to go fight in what appears to be a pointless war.


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Not a Bot
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4:14p, 3/27/23
AG
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cbr
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In reply to Touchless • 4:26p, 3/27/23
AG
Touchless said:
This one's a few days old, and definitely NSFW. Mostly drones dropping grenades on Russian troops that have already been hit and ensuring they're dead. Some obviously aren't though. One guy doesn't even have a shirt and takes a pretty direct hit on the back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/11yvyki/new_drone_dropping_video_from_ukrainian_adam/
i guess playing dead in a trench is not a great idea.
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AgBank
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 7:33p, 3/27/23
AG
2000AgPhD said:
AgLA06 said:
Blackbeard94 said:
Holman Jenkins in the WSJ speculated that the Uke offensive would be in Bakhmut. This would take back any territory gained and would give Putin a real black eye.


I imagine they'll keep great opsec like last time and no one will know until it's well underway. Especially if Russia still doesn't have the live feed satellite imaging they didn't at the start of the war.

Militarily it would really hurt Russian capability to cut off and capture / destroy the massive amount of high level troops and equipment in such a small area around Bakhmut.

Bigger picture PR blow to Russia and mucho momentum would be to cut off Crimea.

Of course, it could be something entirely different because they found a weak point somewhere else.



Crimea would be tempting if the Ukrainians felt they had the ability and resources to actually get the job done - talk about a black eye - taking someplace back that has been occupied for going on a decade. Bakhmut is attractive simply because of the bulge, but IMO is not nearly so strategically important and would be a much more limited operation. Not sure the Ukes are there yet WRT Crimea.
It seems Crimea is so strategically important to Russia and their influence in the Black Sea, that losing it would put them further behind than they were prior to 2014 (i.e., they would lose the Sevastopol Naval Base). Certainly the biggest embarrassment to them since the fall of the Soviet Union.

It is a black eye that they will not endure and I don't see them losing Sevastopol without a revolution or near revolution in Moscow....

but what do I know.


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Rossticus
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12:33a, 3/28/23

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Rossticus
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12:34a, 3/28/23
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Rossticus
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12:40a, 3/28/23

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Rossticus
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12:43a, 3/28/23



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74OA
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4:24a, 3/28/23
AG
Today's SITREP. More armor arrives.
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LMCane
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:33a, 3/28/23
Rossticus said:



"will allow T-64, T-72, and T-80 Units that are in the West to be replaced by these Modern Tanks and thus Deployed to the East"

anyone else closely read this? it makes no sense.

why would the Ukes REPLACE their soviet equipment in THE WEST with NATO equipment and then move the old crappy Soviet equipment to the East?
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twk
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In reply to LMCane • 8:37a, 3/28/23
AG
I think that's just some poor writing. I suspect that it means is that some tank units, currently equipped with obsolete equipment, and therefore, not on the front lines (i.e., currently stationed in the Western part of Ukraine), will now be able to be forward deployed (with modern equipment) in the Eastern part of Ukraine. At least that's the best I can make of it.
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chickencoupe16
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8:46a, 3/28/23
AG
The logistics required to support the western tanks is likely not yet in place. Maybe more importantly, the increase in logistics required to support a tank is likely not linear, so they may be waiting for a larger volume of western tanks before taking on that burden. If 1 tank requires x in logistics, 2 tanks probably requires something less than 2x and I would guess that relationship is a square root curve (flattens with greater quantity). So with more on the way, keep these in reserve for your spring offensive and then take the logistics hit when you're getting more bang for your buck.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 8:59a, 3/28/23
AG
LMCane said:
Rossticus said:



"will allow T-64, T-72, and T-80 Units that are in the West to be replaced by these Modern Tanks and thus Deployed to the East"

anyone else closely read this? it makes no sense.

why would the Ukes REPLACE their soviet equipment in THE WEST with NATO equipment and then move the old crappy Soviet equipment to the East?
I don't think they want to risk their best/newest equipment at the present stalemated front lines. Armor's advantages are in maneuver/offensive strikes, and they clearly want to tap down on public reveals as to when/where they plan to execute offensive operations.
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AgLA06
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9:27a, 3/28/23
AG
My guess is that was written correctly and all the western armor is only allowed to be used in a defensive manner in Western Ukraine (for now). So the Ukes can take the Soviet armor currently their in defensive actions and deploy them to the east.

As mentioned, logistics and the need to have enough of western armor in place to be used effectively is probably driving this.
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MouthBQ98
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10:46a, 3/28/23
AG
I think they've got to collect it and organize it in units in the west so that it can be planned to be deployed and used strategically instead of expended piecemeal in eastern combat zones. In the mean time, it's presence frees up equivalent units to be sent east.
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