I think there is a good chance that they overtaxed the engine or transmission and it burned up or blew a seal or something so they abandoned the vehicle since they were under artillery fire.

Unfortunately, will easily get to page 2000.

Horrific!

AgBank said:

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During the Russian Afghan War, it took almost 10 years for fatigue to set in. The Russians have been at this stage of the conflict for 1 year.

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But they're taking losses at about 40x the rate of the Afghan war. Putin wouldn't survive a 10 year war, nor will we fund one for that matter. But the point is that this war, as it's currently executed, is unsustainable for Russia.

If their offensive fails, Putin will likely be forced to turn to a full mobilization and that is when the pressure will really mount.

Anybody seen the amount of people mobilized out of Moscow or St. Petersburg? From everything I have read on here is that they pretty much have not been touched. That's when I think it will get dicey for him.

EastSideAg2002 said:

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Anybody seen the amount of people mobilized out of Moscow or St. Petersburg? From everything I have read on here is that they pretty much have not been touched. That's when I think it will get dicey for him.

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Didn't many of those younger males from those areas exit the country?

Today's SITREP.

Despite recent Russian gains, Denys is pretty optimistic here. He seems to think something big will come out of Zelensky's meetings in Europe happening at the moment.

Waffledynamics said:

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Despite recent Russian gains, Denys is pretty optimistic here. He seems to think something big will come out of Zelensky's meetings in Europe happening at the moment.

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Reading the tea leaves, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that they'll get fighter jets from the UK.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Despite recent Russian gains, Denys is pretty optimistic here. He seems to think something big will come out of Zelensky's meetings in Europe happening at the moment.

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Reading the tea leaves, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that they'll get fighter jets from the UK.

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Agreed, but it will be interesting to see what effect they would have. This video from several months ago describes Russia's poor utilization of their air force. I would be interested to see how Ukraine would better use Western jets.

Vuhledar, a Russian mechanized formation tries to assault a Ukrainian position through a minefield, before retreating.

During the retreat, a BMP-3 hits a mine, the entire formation comes under Ukrainian artillery fire, and one of the T-80BVs is abandoned. pic.twitter.com/Imn2C198EC

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 9, 2023

2/ ISW has not previously seen Russian personnel subordinated to a DNR formation and this claim, if true, would suggest that Russian forces may be reinforcing degraded DNR formations with mobilized personnel from Russia itself because DNR formations are unable to replenish losses

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 9, 2023

Full update: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces have regained the initiative in Ukraine and have begun their next major offensive in Luhansk Oblast.
• The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun, even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.
• Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) People's Militia command reportedly assumed control over a Russian artillery battalion, likely in support of an effort to strengthen degraded DNR forces ahead of an imminent Russian offensive.
• The reported subordination of Russian mobilized personnel to DNR formations could also suggest that Russian military command may be continuing efforts to integrate ad hoc DNR and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) formations into the Russian Armed Forces, but will likely face significant difficulties.
• Russian officials continue to propose measures to prepare Russia's military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine while also likely setting further conditions for sanctions evasion.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and continued making tactical advances.
• Russian forces continued offensive actions northwest of Svatove and intensified offensive operations near Kreminna.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continue small-scale skirmishes and reconnaissance activity in the Dnipro River delta and on the Kinburn Spit.
• The Wagner Group is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its prison recruitment campaign, possibly in response to the campaign's declining effectiveness.

I think this war is at least headed for another 2-3 years. I also think the current status of the war favors Ukraine (as Ukraines weaponry and troop quality is still trending upward and Russia's is headed the opposite way). Best hope for 2023 is that Russia's combat power gets ground to a halt in this next offensive even if they take some territory and then Ukraine is able to capitalize with an offensive in the south.

I mentioned Binkov's Battlegrounds earlier. Here are a few videos I missed him post. Interesting information on some of the Western vehicles headed there.

I'll echo the thanks. I pass through here a few times a day, minimum.

Found this interesting site that gets into the x's and o's.

February 4- threat of incoming tanks has sped up Russian offensive date in Luhansk



Feb 8

The Ukraine War: Just Getting Started
by Peter Zeihan on February 9, 2023
Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it's just beginning. To fully understand what is at stake here, we must look at Russia's motivators and the possible outcomes.

Russia is looking to reclaim enough land for them to reach the geographical strong points that were once part of the Soviet Union. Beyond that, Russia is essentially fighting for its existence. So the only viable option for them is...winning...at whatever cost. That is a terrifying reality.

If the Ukrainians hold Russia off, we'll see a long, drawn-out war over disputed land until Russia makes enough progress to launch another large-scale assault. For Ukraine to prevail, they would have to destroy sufficient Russian industrial and logistical capacity WITHIN RUSSIA to render another assault impossible.

If the Russians get past Ukraine, they won't stop there. Poland and Romania will be next, but the Russians know that facing off with NATO isn't going to end well. And that's when the nuclear question comes up.

Regardless of how this plays out, we know Russia doesn't give in lightly. What we've seen so far is just a warm-up and the real war is only now starting.

That is terrifying.

#Ukraine: At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast.
13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned.
⏬ pic.twitter.com/FdZmLtn4ay

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 9, 2023

Corporal Punishment said:

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That is terrifying.

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I disagree in part. The Russians can't sustain the materiel costs forever. They don't have the manufacturing capacity to turn out the tanks, ifv, afv, that they need to put back into the field. This isn't the 1700s and Russians can't win an infantry centric war vs a mechanized force.

I'm unsure of if China will backfill that gap. It seems like China is unsure if they will backfill that gap.

That could force a crisis point sooner.

so the Russians still can't mass armor in range of arty or missiles and they still don't do will with combined arms assault.

They've got artillery and man in numbers. Neither of which are particularly accurate but their numbers are the multiplier.


This is going to be a very long conflict.

JFABNRGR said:

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Does Ivan change the oil???
Looks like a blown engine to me on the last part of vid on MBT...maybe overreving from spinning in the mud? any tankers on here!

More video from #Vuhledar #Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/6HzJhzEktG

— Cloooud (@GloOouD) February 8, 2023

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that video is pretty amazing.

good post.

you see about 20 Russkies beating it for the rear...

but then the one time they pan out on the screen you see the rear is..

about 5 miles away.

DCPD158 said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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True. It's quite a conundrum for putin.

He probably can't afford for this war to be too protracted for 3 reasons- his health, Russian financing, and threat of coup.

But, Russia doesn't have a weaponry advantage almost anywhere and loses ground every time the west decides to send something new.

So, he's left, imo, with sending bodies in an attempt to overwhelm and breakout at the risk of an internal coup. I dont think this would happen so long as Russia were successful in a breakout.

Or, he could simply send so many troops to the areas which he holds and make it very uninviting for Ukraine to attempt to gain back those areas and, in doing so, create leverage for political pressure for terms to end the war with whatever minor gains have been made.

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Sooner or later, those bodies are going to say "no" in even larger numbers. No amount of Wagner Commisars will overcome a collective will to survive

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I think it's more accurate to state "once the number of prisoners in Russian prisons have been completely killed off" ....

LMCane said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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Does Ivan change the oil???
Looks like a blown engine to me on the last part of vid on MBT...maybe overreving from spinning in the mud? any tankers on here!

More video from #Vuhledar #Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/6HzJhzEktG

— Cloooud (@GloOouD) February 8, 2023

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that video is pretty amazing.

good post.

you see about 20 Russkies beating it for the rear...

but then the one time they pan out on the screen you see the rear is..

about 5 miles away.

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They were also taking small arms fire. Hence they are all on the one side of IFV. In beginning the tank fires towards bottom right corner of frame but appears to be unaware of exact target locations.

Also there are two occasions when panned out that soldiers go down in retreat one looks like a simple trip but another looks like he gets shot, which is several hundred yards further. Maybe a crew served MG was on them.

There are certainly times where Ukes do not provide the full footage of what were seeing. This and the 30 vehicle destruction that occurred are both perfect examples of this. OPSEC is certainly one reason and counter intel the other. There are times I witness absolutely precision on the arty with or without smart rounds and times in which the resource is quite limited where the fire mission is denied. This said of all the weapon systems going in and their delays I think longer range artillery capabilities could be most effective right now, especially the HIMARS/M270 with multiple launch capabilities. A single battery safe from counter battery fire can support such a large segment of the front.

They certainly have no shortage of drones and from the reddit video I posted earlier its not uncommon to have multiple recon drones working a single fight. The grenade dropping drones seem to be unlimited. There has also been 2-3 videos in the last 2 days of arty striking trenches way off the front with almost all rounds landing in the trench and being used against no more than a dozen soldiers occupying the trench. This supports my theory that they are limited in arty support given sheer numbers, rounds, and having to constantly move which the long range stuff would not have to do if co located with ADA assets.

jobu93 said:

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so the Russians still can't mass armor in range of arty or missiles and they still don't do will with combined arms assault.

They've got artillery and man in numbers. Neither of which are particularly accurate but their numbers are the multiplier.


This is going to be a very long conflict.

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Maybe. I'd bet money the force you saw backed by an armor isn't conscripts. They send conscripts in human waves "covered" by inaccurate artillery to soak up bullets and expose the defensive positions.

We've talked about Russia switching tactics to go in smaller waves over and over with a finishing wave that may be accompanied by armour. My guess is that has as much to do with shortages of equipment and ammo and trained units that can trusted as it it trying new strategies.

My hope is Ukraine is building, training, and equipping reserve strike groups. Because I think Russia is going to have to pull every unit they trust for the pending offensive and leave conscrips and regional forces to hold the line. There's a great potential we'll see them overextended and exposed just like the Kharkiv offensive. And a mobile well equipped and trained strike group could wreak havoc on the flanks or even in another poorly defended section of the line

The prospect of Ukraine getting western jets is a game changer. Sure older airframes are still susceptible to modern Russian air defenses but they open up so many opportunities for the Ukes.

Our military doctrine is heavily dependent on air power, not artillery as is the Soviet doctrine. But more specifically we employ tactical airframes in pursuit of offensive goals whereas the Soviets used their tactical airframes in defensive roles to counter our strategic bombers.

The point being that, while our stockpiles of artillery and other ground based munitions is under strain, we have lots air based munitions that haven't entered the battle yet.

lb3 said:

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AgBank said:

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During the Russian Afghan War, it took almost 10 years for fatigue to set in. The Russians have been at this stage of the conflict for 1 year.

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But they're taking losses at about 40x the rate of the Afghan war. Putin wouldn't survive a 10 year war, nor will we fund one for that matter. But the point is that this war, as it's currently executed, is unsustainable for Russia.

If their offensive fails, Putin will likely be forced to turn to a full mobilization and that is when the pressure will really mount.

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I agree on all points. This conflict may have another year or so, although I don't see Poland and other Eastern European countries reducing their supply of aid.

There are may higher ranked silent officers within the US that want nothing more than to bleed out Russians. This means US military aid may not get their quickly enough for a quick decisive victory, but I believe there is a good bit of quiet support to aid the Ukrainians with this conflict as it stands.

lb3 said:

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The prospect of Ukraine getting western jets is a game changer. Sure older airframes are still susceptible to modern Russian air defenses but they open up so many opportunities for the Ukes.

Our military doctrine is heavily dependent on air power, not artillery as is the Soviet doctrine. But more specifically we employ tactical airframes in pursuit of offensive goals whereas the Soviets used their tactical airframes in defensive roles to counter our strategic bombers.

The point being that, while our stockpiles of artillery and other ground based munitions is under strain, we have lots air based munitions that haven't entered the battle yet.

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UK is tapping the brakes. POST-WAR?