I am still not 100% convinced that this is Russia's war, as opposed to Putin war. He has a lot of support for it of course but if he were to die tomorrow, would his immediate successor have the Cajones to keep at it? I truly don't know.

Russia propaganda will has its citizens believing this is the fight of fights and that it is their duty, their calling to crush the Ukes in order to save Russia. It's just hard to gauge how effective it is on the populace as a whole. I don't think support is as unilateral as it was say in 1940.

Which begs the question we have cycled around since the first days of this. If Putin dies, does the war end? Maybe not over night obviously but eventually?

In response to the sustainment of length of this war. If Putin keeps living it will go on. Absolutely believe that. If something happens to him though…..maybe not?

Eliminatus said:

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I am still not 100% convinced that this is Russia's war, as opposed to Putin war. He has a lot of support for it of course but if he were to die tomorrow, would his immediate successor have the Cajones to keep at it? I truly don't know.

Russia propaganda will has its citizens believing this is the fight of fights and that it is their duty, their calling to crush the Ukes in order to save Russia. It's just hard to gauge how effective it is on the populace as a whole. I don't think support is as unilateral as it was say in 1940.

Which begs the question we have cycled around since the first days of this. If Putin dies, does the war end? Maybe not over night obviously but eventually?

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Pregozhin obviously has been fighting the war harder and better than any other Russian as head of Wagner.

Would he end the war or take power by claiming he is the only one who can win it?

Several of the other players behind the scenes seem to be even more hard care Russian nationalists than Putin. but historically, once the first initial leader is assassinated that team is going to lose

Depends on how he dies. If he dies from natural causes, I believe very little changes, because the people who talked him into the war have largely kept their positions in his inner circle and one of them will likely take over in his absence. Same goes for if he is deposed by one or more of his inner circle and falls out of a window while admiring the view. But if some outside faction composed of military, oligarchs, and other leaders who are privately against the war rises up and takes out Putin and most of his inner circle, I think the war ends in days, as continuing to fight it will interfere with their consolidation of power.

Ukraine could receive an initial tranche of 237 Leo IA5s in a matter of months, but a Belgian arms dealer is a problem. "The (Belgian) army disbanded its last tank battalion in 2014 and sold its 50 Leopard 1A5s to Versluys's firm OIP for just $800,000." "Versluys has said he's open to selling back the tanks for onward transfer to Ukraine." "But Versluys reportedly is asking $27 million for the 50 tanks, a price Dedonder called "unreasonable."
TANKS

Looks like Russia lost one of its vaunted BMPTs in this last offensive.

These Terminator IFVs were deemed absolute top tier units by the Russians. Almost on par with the fabled T-14s. They have been hoarded to a level that is crazy. Prevailing thoughts were it would be more of a blow to Russia PR to lose them on camera than whatever actual fighting worth they may offer. But times are tough for Russia and they were finally sent in. There were reports that the unit had some damaged a couple months ago and pulled them back and then finally recommitted some to this new offensive.

Essentially these are the new hype for Russia but Russia was scared to lose them so they hoarded them relentlessly until now. And now they lost one. BTW they are only about 10 of these operational. The Ukes just broke one of Russias precious toys that even they care about.

Also backing track made me chuckle.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/10xsyxp/destruction_of_a_russian_bmpt_terminator_afv_by/

Russian propaganda alive and well.

⚡️Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the PMC "Wagner" received more than 10 million applications from US citizens wishing to join the ranks of the group pic.twitter.com/2TS8W9zpjN

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 9, 2023

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russian propaganda alive and well.

⚡️Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the PMC "Wagner" received more than 10 million applications from US citizens wishing to join the ranks of the group pic.twitter.com/2TS8W9zpjN

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 9, 2023

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I keep applying and they keep turning me down.

Apparently, there's an age limitation even for cannon fodder.

...........and that's discrimination.

Here's that perspective reset from Zeihan in YouTube format for those interested:

This is the shortest video of the Terminator being destroyed. The longer ones show 2-3 arty shots that miss close enough to possibly do damage but likely not serious. I think the machine was abandoned before Ukes started to engage it. Nobody around and no movement before or after the first shot.

Maintenance has been a big problem for them.

not sure if this has been posted but another great first. Keep it up Russkies!!

The Arctic TOR-M2DT air defense system became the star of russian television when it was sent to Ukraine. But soon a Ukrainian drone introduced it to Ukrainian gunners.
It burned brightly, the fire extinguisher did not help. pic.twitter.com/12ze4kj6sl

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 2, 2023

According to Ukrainian Officials they have observed the beginnings of a Large-Scale Russian Offensive along the Kreminna-Luhansk Front.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 9, 2023

Shahed-131 Drones are also said to have been launched moments ago from Western Russia in the direction of Ukraine.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 9, 2023

Explosions from Air Defenses and Missile/Drone Strikes are being reported in multiple Regions across Eastern Ukraine including Kherson, Dnipro, and Mykolaiv.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 9, 2023

Russian strategic bomber voice net 4694 and 5227 kHz USB
Transmitter's static noise is on.

High risk of a combat mission with the Tupolev TU-22m3 X-22 missiles launching along the Shahed's-136 https://t.co/gak9fLj8TT

— Olga Honcharenko (@olga_pp98) February 9, 2023

This is further Evidence to me that the Offensive we are currently seeing near Kreminna is just a Holding-Operation to prevent Ukrainian Forces from moving South or North for a Russian Offensive possibly there.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 9, 2023

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Russian propaganda alive and well.

⚡️Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the PMC "Wagner" received more than 10 million applications from US citizens wishing to join the ranks of the group pic.twitter.com/2TS8W9zpjN

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 9, 2023

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Lol this isn't propaganda. He's straight up trolling the press.

All of this armored equipment would be useful right now and won't be available for a few months. At this point Ukraine just needs to minimize loses until they get enough equipment for a counteroffensive.

It will be interesting to see the Ukrainian defensive maneuvers in this offensive. They were quite mobile last time.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 9 that “certain positive decisions” concerning Western-made fighter jets were made in Brussels, with “several” European countries showing readiness to send them to Ukraine when the time comes. https://t.co/nE2NM4H9yf

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 9, 2023

Location: pic.twitter.com/aKMbXbvtaW

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) February 9, 2023

Location: pic.twitter.com/419euqhOm2

— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) February 9, 2023

Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats

Click here to see our interactive map, updated daily: https://t.co/tXBburiWEN pic.twitter.com/PUUe2MWDhQ

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) February 9, 2023

The Dnieper River is a key offensive and defensive barrier for both sides in the south.

CLASHES

This Official also stated that they currently believe Russia is looking to Mobilize another 300-500 Thousand Conscripts once the Offensive does begin.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 10, 2023

⚡️Air raid alert goes off in many Ukrainian regions.

Air raid alerts were activated in many Ukrainian oblasts and in the city of Kyiv early on Feb. 10.

Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov confirmed that Russian forces are striking the region.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 10, 2023

Thus, according to estimates of the Ukrainian military, Russia has 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 2,700 artillery systems, 810 Soviet MLRSs such as "Grad" and "Smerch", 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters ready for a new wave of attacks.
2/2

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) February 8, 2023

400 operating tactical and fighter aircraft and 300 helicopters seems a stretch based on what we've seen so far. Wouldn't be surprised at the rest though. I'd be surging loitering munitions to secondary locations and firing some ranging artillery shots.

What kind of tanks? T-55s?

aezmvp said:

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400 operating tactical and fighter aircraft and 300 helicopters seems a stretch based on what we've seen so far. Wouldn't be surprised at the rest though. I'd be surging loitering munitions to secondary locations and firing some ranging artillery shots.

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MANPADS would be having a field day with that many helicopters.

Again any decent modern anti tank weapon, medium loitering munitions etc will tear out anything older than the 2011 T72 variants. But even then yeah tinder boxes. They would be vulnerable to drone dropped AT munitions too. That's still a he'll of a lot of fire power.

Politico article with analysis on the upcoming a Russian offensive.

https://www.politico.eu/article/can-vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-donbas-chemical-weapons-win/

UPDATE

Well hope the orcs have some minesweepers in that 4000 vehicle assault group. I mean 3993. Jeez stupid is as stupid does.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/10yldex/a_column_of_russian_vehicles_hit_a_minefield_one/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf